Notes on the Medium-Term Outlook

The High-Investment Expansion of the 1990s

 

The 1990s Also Saw a Return to Higher Productivity Growth

 

 

Higher Productivity Growth Meant More Rapid Output Growth

 

 

 

And as Inflation Lagged Behind, Higher Profits…

 

 

 

 

 

Will the End of the 1990s Expansion Bring an End to Rapid Productivity--and Output--Growth?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Valuation Ratios: Stock Prices and a Ten-Year Moving Average of Earnings

 

 

 

Valuation Ratios: Stock Prices and a Ten-Year Moving Average of Earnings

 

 

 

 

But Is There Any Reason 18 x MA(10) Earnings Should Be a Magic Number