ࡱ> ;?<c jbjbSS (11)]<<<L      ,,  tttttttt  , ttttt tttttt ,,\,,t  :T , X"ڶ   University of California at Berkeley ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ Professor J. Bradford De Long Department of Economics, 601 Evans Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 (510) 643-4027 283-2709 642-6615 fax http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ , % , " Professor Peter Temin Department of Economics MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 Dear Peter, As it is my 38th birthday, I choose to celebrate it by sending you the list of chapters and the first half of the first draft of my twentieth-century economic history manuscript. I hope you enjoy it. And please give me a call Sincerely yours, Brad De Long Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century J. Bradford De Long University of California at Berkeley and NBER Copyright 1991-1998 J. Bradford DeLong. I. Introduction Part A: Themes II. Wealth III. Consequences and Causes of Economic Growth Wealth and Utopia Power and Genocide VI. Divergence VII. Economic Policy and Material Prosperity Part B: The Path from the Pre-Industrial World, -1914 VIII. The First Global Economy: Production and Trade IX. The First World Economy: The Gold Standard X. Political and Economic Empires Part C: False Paths, 1914-1945 XI. World War I XII. Restoring[?] the Pre-World War I Economy XIII. Communism and Nazism XIV. The Roaring Twenties XV. The Great Crash and the Great Slump XVI. Hitler and Stalin XVII. Climbing Out of the Depression XVIII. Falling into World War II Part D: The Path to Utopia, 1945-1973 XIX. Present at the Creation XX. The Great Keynesian Boom XXI. Falseand TrueStarts to Development in the Third World XXII. The High Tide of Social Democracy Part E: The Path to Today, 1973-2000 XXIII. Inflation and Oil Shocks: The End of the Keynesian Age XXIV. Rolling Back the Social Insurance State? XXV. East Asias Rise XXVI. The Soviet Unions Fall XXVII. The Break-Up of the Third World Part E: The Path to Tomorrow XXVIII. Ecology and Populations XIX. Technology and Productivity XXX. Looking Forward  My list of intellectual debts on this project is extremely long, getting longer, and too long to list in total. But the ten most weighty intellectual debts to Lawrence Summers, Barry Eichengreen, Jeffrey Williamson, Andrei Shleifer, David Landes, Christina Romer, Claudia Goldin, Robert Waldmann, Peter Temin, David Romer, Jeffrey Weintraub, Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Joel Mokyr, David Cutler, Larry Katz, Jan de Vries, Greg Mankiw, Robert Barro, Richard Sutch (yes, I know thats twenty) cannot be evaded. I am also indebted to the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the University of California at Berkeley Institute of Business and Economic Research for financial assistance at various points during this project. This is still a work in progress. Comments welcome. Citations (that identify this as a work-in-progress) very welcome as well.  J. Bradford De Long is professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, co-editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In the past he has worked for the United States government as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. He has also been a John M. Olin fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an Alfred P. Sloan research fellow. %&'ABCDMN    su0ILZ\PQ   % ) * 1R¸CJCJ$5CJ$5CJ6 j0JUH* CJOJQJCJ 5OJQJ5CJ jU CJpOJQJ jUCJ CJOJQJ=%&Cb%=AUVWcd$   L H H(%&Cb%=AUVWcdIJK]^_qr-.0JKL\qQm    Mbrst  5IJK]^_qr-.0JKL\q  & F<<$$<$$ Q ; V p   & F<<  & F< & F< ; V p  < Y $ T j Ŀ~ytoje`[6Tj(e&Nh7!  < Y $ T j  % & ' ( $<<  & F<<  % & ' ( ) '(BC  ( ) '(BC $hP/ =!"#8$8%| HH@R),, P `,-^&'d  Mլ4` Mհ40N^NuNVN^NuNV/ r(x Hp M׌gp M׌f pl\fr`r0(nN^NuNVH&n"p(@BGB-@U> D _gBGp?/<Y. _-P/ N(x H)nv x HphXOgT S0(tH2<@p0Jf> x H0(p|r2pf( x H0(j|r2Jg x Hphtr2Jfv MBlnf)n j)nn Sp(QrJgB,gJ,ggJ,DdOH  c $AB@NP?gFD" TNP?gFA\9p>xAKAIL=@X)K*Ce] J`j!P=CB'~~^OۙD=tgaۙdBma|7 VAk@jtqEye=0=n2ſo=SX0"c<y7AvQKd0NuR s?AɵƻaL` ),Pxs^[6~7گ*2 dխP##Q7 )Ԅi|_#k|ٕrekm֯"y9霗(i<38LVUx˫'{LF|lngX\ \"Š΋WW5]79Ov9w^1 Ҹ>C"K|V:&t}6z9oBN .Er[by"p\]GYViߏZfD+A%DdK H  c $AB[$ Kcq^QZ7 " T/$ Kcq^QZ9xNQ,˿ !r 44ZPXP-; ٽ,lbLn=3s52e 44*h Yw4 5q6ic'D; zf[q=!m;?u\4E)>$G1:+(~t;%Y*J\0.h˺4FS~xC v9Sm82[h~_M ~?5%V;P!// H/NJOgX`Z/ Hk`// H/NJOf0/ Hkb// H/NJOg`p`0LN^Nu;NVbH&nIp-@-@A-HBnBnBnB.Bn=|xB.kr+jtr AWDCr+jtr AWDCr+jt r A WDCrCJOJQJkH'Preformatted,PRE@ & /.#$ ) ` @`! %(+CJOJQJkH'0O0 RestartList!d2O!2 Sample,SAMP OJQJkH'<O1<Strikethrough,STRIKE7.OA. Strong,STRONG5:OQ: Typewriter,TTCJOJQJkH'<Oa< Variable,VAR6CJOJQJkH'BBz-Bottom of Form '$$dCJ:O: z-HTML Tag>*B*CJOJQJkH'<< z-Top of Form )$&dCJ,@,Header * !&)@& Page Number4T`4 Block Text ,CJ2@2 Footnote Text-CJ8&@8Footnote ReferenceH**B`* Body Text/CJGTimes New Roman5Symbol3 Arial3Times7Courier261  260260261261 FMicrosoft Excel Worksheet8FIBExcel.Sheet.8s|(ppb&ss`ss`ssXl`z,nb&XlS@XlXl261261262262263261261261262262263263261394394395395394410410425425394395395396396397397398398399399400400401401400400401 400400 401400 [4@4NormalCJOJQJkH'mH F`F Heading 1,H1$<@& 5CJ0KH$B`B Heading 2,H2$<@&5CJ$B`B Heading 3,H3$<@&5CJ<A@<Default Paragraph FontLOLReturn Address  H5CJOJQJkH'8o8 Blockquotehh<<0`List Bullet,ULp & F>Th8o8 RestartListdOJQJ2@22 Footnote TextCJ8&@A8Footnote ReferenceH*  (&(!!  sQ ^   (    OT)  Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Andrei  hhOJQJo(o(. @TTDy^T m @ GTimes New Roman5Symbol3 Arial?Avant Garde5MUCSeal90RR New York3Times;Helvetica7MTms Rmn"^&f^&f]&fk!+0 Berkeley stationery fileletter stationery"Berkeley address stationery letter Brad DeLong Brad DeLongf-P0( @=@=h$0#@ D:!~@ c@$@ aA wŋ!@ A @ A Sz1@ A  V@ D  OX@ D A {ŏ@ D A~ V@ >#@ \K(~@ c@$@ aA wŋ!@ A @ A Sz1@A  V@D  OX@ D A &H0@D A~ @V@I#@\K(~@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@A@V@Dk3'@DA&H0@DA~ V@ϛ#@\K(~@c@$@aA ՜.+,D՜.+,P  hp  ' Delong groupta : Berkeley stationery file Title 6> _PID_GUID'AN{301B2C80-0B42-11D2-8B16-EB2178866D59}~SJ@DA~ U@ z#@^s@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@AU@D @DAX'迈@DA~ @U@l#@^s@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@A@U@D2u@DAX'迈@DA~ U@;X "@U@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@AU@Dʛ-W@DAKx.@DA~ T@aaR AV"@U@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@AT@DZ@@DAKx.@DA~ T@p"@{%%u@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@AT@DuTp@DAmS d`@DA~ @T@ު !@.@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@A@T@Df&@DAyX!ς@DA~ T@];:!@.@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@AT@DyAI5#@DAyX!ς@DA~ S@IT0Տ!@K;@@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@AS@Dql@DA#=@DA~ S@g!@K;@@c@$@aAwŋ!@A@ASz1@AS@Dpu@DA#=@DA~ @S@=B@DEFGHIJKLMOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`ab0TableCSummaryInformation( DocumentSummaryInformation8CompObjXObjectPoolRR _GUID'AN{301B2C80-0B42-11D2-8B16-EB2178866D59}z1@,A Oh+'0( <H d p | 'Berkeley stationery file.0letter stationeryy  Brad DeLong#Berkeley address stationery lettersNormaly Brad DeLong3ad FMicrosoft Word DocumentNB6WWord.Document.8@!A!S ՜.+,D՜.+,P  hp  ' Delong groupta : Berkeley stationery file Title 6> _PIDMicrosoft Word 8.0a@@%1@T@Tk!g=Wd? DD@~ =@ @0@y\}?"@DAt#@DA $ !yUW9H? DD@!$z? DD@~ >@ ,@0@$}]Jp!@DAt#@DA [4@4NormalCJOJQJkH'mH F`F Heading 1,H1$<@& 5CJ0KH$B`B Heading 2,H2$<@&5CJ$B`B Heading 3,H3$<@&5CJ<A@<Default Paragraph FontLOLReturn Address  H5CJOJQJkH'8o8 Blockquotehh<<0`List Bullet,ULp & F>Th8o8 RestartListdOJQJ2@22 Footnote TextCJ8&@A8Footnote ReferenceH*  (&(!!  e ^ %&Cb)AThijwx,-]^_qrs$9:;<= `'`'`' `'!`'!`'!`'!`'!`'!`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'$`'$`'$`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'!)ATh<= (  ( (   Unknown Brad DeLongJ. Bradford DeLongou=  Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Fisher Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Andrei Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Andrei  hhOJQJo(o(. @uuDy^uo m(ASbgou<= @(H @( @( @( @#@R@#@#@ GTimes New Roman5Symbol3 Arial?Avant Garde5MUCSeal90RR New York3Times;Helvetica7MTms Rmn"^&f^&f]&fk!+0 Berkeley stationery fileletter stationery"Berkeley address stationery letter Brad DeLong Brad DeLong DD@!_`?c jbjbSS *11=]<<L XXXX d,,DDT,,\,,6:,=ڶX  University of California at Berkeley ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ Professor J. Bradford De Long Department of Economics, 601 Evans Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 (510) 643-4027 283-2709 642-6615 fax http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ , % , " Professor Peter Temin Department of Economics MIT Cambridge, MA 02139 Dear Peter, As it is my 38th birthday, I choose to celebrate it by sending you the list of chapters and the first half of the first draft of my twentieth-century economic history manuscript. I hope you enjoy it. And please give me a call Sincerely yours, Brad De Long Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century J. Bradford De Long University of California at Berkeley and NBER Copyright 1991-1998 J. Bradford DeLong. I. Introduction Part A: Themes II. Wealth III. Consequences and Causes of Economic Growth Wealth and Utopia Power and Genocide VI. Divergence VII. Economic Policy and Material Prosperity Part B: The Path from the Pre-Industrial World, -1914 VIII. The First Global Economy: Production and Trade IX. The First World Economy: The Gold Standard X. Political and Economic Empires Part C: False Paths, 1914-1945 XI. World War I XII. Restoring[?] the Pre-World War I Economy XIII. Communism and Nazism XIV. The Roaring Twenties XV. The Great Crash and the Great Slump XVI. Hitler and Stalin XVII. Climbing Out of the Depression XVIII. Falling into World War II Part D: The Path to Utopia, 1945-1973 XIX. Present at the Creation XX. The Great Keynesian Boom XXI. Falseand TrueStarts to Development in the Third World XXII. The High Tide of Social Democracy Part E: The Path to Today, 1973-2000 XXIII. Inflation and Oil Shocks: The End of the Keynesian Age XXIV. Rolling Back the Social Insurance State? XXV. East Asias Rise XXVI. The Soviet Unions Fall XXVII. The Break-Up of the Third World Part E: The Path to Tomorrow XXVIII. Ecology and Populations XIX. Technology and Productivity XXX. Looking Forward  My list of intellectual debts on this project is extremely long, getting longer, and too long to list in total. But the ten most weighty intellectual debts to Lawrence Summers, Barry Eichengreen, Jeffrey Williamson, Andrei Shleifer, David Landes, Christina Romer, Claudia Goldin, Robert Waldmann, Peter Temin, David Romer, Jeffrey Weintraub, Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Joel Mokyr, David Cutler, Larry Katz, Jan de Vries, Greg Mankiw, Robert Barro, Richard Sutch (yes, I know thats twenty) cannot be evaded. I am also indebted to the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the University of California at Berkeley Institute of Business and Economic Research for financial assistance at various points during this project. This is still a work in progress. Comments welcome. Citations (that identify this as a work-in-progress) very welcome as well.  J. Bradford De Long is professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, co-editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In the past he has worked for the United States government as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. He has also been a John M. Olin fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an Alfred P. Sloan research fellow. %&'ABCDMN    su0ILZ\PQ   % ) * 1R(¸CJCJ$5CJ$5CJ6 j0JUH* CJOJQJCJ 5OJQJ5CJ jU CJpOJQJ jUCJ CJOJQJ>%&Cb%=AUVWcd$   L H H(%&Cb%=AUVWcdIJK]^_qr-.0JKL\qQm    Mbrst  5IJK]^_qr-.0JKL\q  & F<<$$<$$ Q ; V p   & F<<  & F< & F< ; V p  < Y $ T j Ŀ~ytoje`[6Tj(e&Nh7!  < Y $ T j  % & ' ( $<<  & F<<  % & ' ( ) '(BC  ( ) '(BC( $hP/ =!"#8$8%| HH@R),, P `,-^&'dAndrei ShleiferHarvard University02138Andrei