аЯрЁБс>ўџ ;?ўџџџ<џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџьЅСc Пљjbjb№S№S Ђ(š1š1K­џџџџџџ]<<<LДДД      ,, у tttttttt  Ђ Ђ Ђ Ђ Ђ Ђ ,ёєхьЮ ДtttttЮ ДДttttДtДt  Ш,є,\,ˆ,ДДt  0Р :j ,ДД  XxѓЖБ  – University of California at Berkeley ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ Professor J. Bradford De Long Department of Economics, 601 Evans Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 (510) 643-4027 283-2709 642-6615 fax http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ , % , " Professor Gregory Clark Department of Economics University of California at Davis Cambridge, MA 02138 Dear Jeffrey, As it is my 38th birthday, I choose to celebrate it by sending you the list of chapters and the first half of the first draft of my twentieth-century economic history manuscript. I hope you enjoy it. And please give me a call… Sincerely yours, Brad De Long Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century   J. Bradford De Long University of California at Berkeley and NBER Copyright 1991-1998 J. Bradford DeLong. I. Introduction Part A: Themes II. Wealth III. Consequences and Causes of Economic Growth Wealth and Utopia Power and Genocide VI. Divergence VII. Economic Policy and Material Prosperity Part B: The Path from the Pre-Industrial World, -1914 VIII. The First Global Economy: Production and Trade IX. The First World Economy: The Gold Standard X. Political and Economic Empires Part C: False Paths, 1914-1945 XI. World War I XII. Restoring[?] the Pre-World War I Economy XIII. Communism and Nazism XIV. The Roaring Twenties XV. The Great Crash and the Great Slump XVI. Hitler and Stalin XVII. Climbing Out of the Depression XVIII. Falling into World War II Part D: The Path to Utopia, 1945-1973 XIX. Present at the Creation XX. The Great Keynesian Boom XXI. False—and True—Starts to Development in the Third World XXII. The High Tide of Social Democracy Part E: The Path to Today, 1973-2000 XXIII. Inflation and Oil Shocks: The End of the Keynesian Age XXIV. Rolling Back the Social Insurance State? XXV. East Asia’s Rise XXVI. The Soviet Union’s Fall XXVII. The Break-Up of the Third World Part E: The Path to Tomorrow XXVIII. Ecology and Populations XIX. Technology and Productivity XXX. Looking Forward  My list of intellectual debts on this project is extremely long, getting longer, and too long to list in total. But the ten most weighty intellectual debts to Lawrence Summers, Barry Eichengreen, Jeffrey Williamson, Andrei Shleifer, David Landes, Christina Romer, Claudia Goldin, Robert Waldmann, Peter Temin, David Romer, Jeffrey Weintraub, Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Joel Mokyr, David Cutler, Larry Katz, Jan de Vries, Greg Mankiw, Robert Barro, Richard Sutch (yes, I know that’s twenty) cannot be evaded. I am also indebted to the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the University of California at Berkeley Institute of Business and Economic Research for financial assistance at various points during this project. This is still a work in progress. Comments welcome. Citations (that identify this as a work-in-progress) very welcome as well.  J. Bradford De Long is professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, co-editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In the past he has worked for the United States government as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. He has also been a John M. Olin fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an Alfred P. Sloan research fellow. %&'ABCDMNŸ    •—опѕії&Rkn|~9=rsќ     ? @ р у   б в д № ё G K L хцStљљіёъхслилбёёёёЯШШЦТОЛТОЛТОЛТОЛТОЛТИОЛТШШЦCJCJ$5CJ$5CJ6 j0JUH* CJOJQJCJ 5OJQJ5CJ jмU CJpOJQJ jUCJ CJOJQJ=%&Cb†ŸЧу'?auvw…†:ћћљђщђуллеееаЬЬЬЬЬЬЬЬЬЬ„а$„а ЦФ„ђў Ц Ц„Lџ ЦH ЦH„(%&Cb†ŸЧу'?I`auvw…†:;klm€“”Брт'OPRlmn~“Цмј ;<=s§§§ћћћјђьчтнигЮЩФПКГЉЄŸš•ЃўџџЄўџџЅўџџдўџџшўџџџџџ   џџџ MџџџbџџџrџџџsџџџtџџџŽџџџџџџ‘џџџЙџџџўџџџ бџџџ уџџџ6:;klm€“”Брт'OPRlmn~“Цћћћћѓѓѓѓћ№эшххпнааЮЪнн„  & F„а„˜ўЄ<Є<„ „ $$Є<$$„а Ц„аЦмј ;<=sЉйќ§ўџ  / ] x ’ К б і    јјээрокиииоирокииииииииир„  & F„а„˜ўЄ<Є<  & F„а„˜ўЄ< & FЄ<sЉйќ§ўџ  / ] x ’ К б і     @ ^ { И р с т у  F v Œ Њ б ћіёьчтнигЮЩФПКЕАЋІЁœ—’ˆƒ~ytoje`[6ћџџTћџџjћџџšћџџићџџ§ћџџўћџџџћџџќџџ(ќџџeќџџ‚ќџџ ќџџЦќџџЧќџџШќџџЩќџџъќџџ§џџ&§џџN§џџh§џџƒ§џџБ§џџС§џџр§џџс§џџт§џџу§џџф§џџўџџ7ўџџmўџџ!  @ ^ { И р с т у  F v Œ Њ б в г д ё  2 G H I J §љїїїїїъ§љїїїїїїъ§љїїїупп„а$Є<Є<  & F„а„˜ўЄ<Є<„б в г д ё  2 G H I J K IJdeфхіїјљћіёьчтнкздвввввввв—њџџ˜њџџ™њџџЎњџџЯњџџяњџџ ћџџ ћџџћџџћџџJ K IJdeфхіїјљ§љљљїљїљљ§§„  $hPАа/ Ар=!А "Аа#8$8%А| HHє@џќџюR)ќ,, P `,- ^ь&'dа €а €а......... , He is indebted to the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Bureau of Economic ResмDdOЈыш№HВ № c №$›џџџ›џџџAПџ№€B№@і№NЭP‡?•ЌgшкFџD"Є T№і№NЭP‡?•ЌgшкFA\9pЩ>И–тўxœ‘AKAЧџЃIL=‚к@XЂЅŽ)юІ•ваKЗЩ*Ce…] J„ЂИ‡`j!ЩСЋPшЉ=Е—вCПBЁ'С“~€~ˆ^Oул™D=tgaїЭЬя§ол™d“˜B™ma|Ј7Š šƒVAk@jtqˆŸиEЪЁ yЇeœФфСш=0=НŽn2ХП‘ o=SАXНП–ИЕЫ0"ыЭШƒŒЙcСІ<ћy7НAvіQФKd0Nu—ЅјR ‡sЭ?AЩЕЦЛЈaL` ),PНxsѓщз^№Ц[ё6уѓљ~Ы7кЏ*Шђ2ц ѕЩэdе­‰Pчл#ъ#љцQ7јЩ )д„яi|_ˆњ#ћk|ŠфГй•еаr§eњkm—ЇФў“жЏЋ"y9ˆš„Ђъщœ—(Вiщ<38ЩэLшњVUxЫЋ'{LфF|šlђngŸфЮXь\ \П"ТŠЮ‹WєW5щ]7єЊШ9КO—§виvˆ9w^1иЩ ЄвИ>ёCК"ƒK‘|Vя:&тЏt}6ИЩЫzз9oBКN .Er[ыby"ЅыТpЋŠфЮџ\]ЁЗгиGщYЩСѓЕлVЛГнiМпZЌfдщD­+A„Я%їDdK Ј№ш№HВ № c №$эўџџэўџџAПџ№€B№[Ё$ †KcУq^QдњЌZЎџ7 "Є T№/Ё$ †KcУq^QдњЌZЎš9„И–§ўxœНNQ…ПЙ,ЫП !Ѓ„ŽrЕ 4ќ4жZPX™ј№šP-…Џрƒ;эБѕ жйН,lbLnю=3sцЬЩ5†ЊЌш›2e 44‡*h њи№YАцw4œ 5q6ТiђдНcЅоэ'Dё;ŽО ъВzf[q=!m;‡?u\Ÿ4ЕїEфЊ)>љ$G1Я:+(~СЕtК;ў%Y*щщќёс‰JИ\щО0.hЫК4ёFSЏ~уѕxњCЏ етvї†Ž9Sяmљ8Ве2[ƒМ•НЯюh~ЉП_еьЪЯMЫ н~Ыл?5Ÿ%СV;P!L мРЦaƒf1С€  Р 0У0џўРРРРР"f6€`†С€ 000џ 1Ч@0Рь˜ `Р`0РaƒpСуc` aТ€`РA€Р† `№86Рјcfa†˜<Р †у0&Су€& <` p †a˜f†a˜€0У 0ЬР№< Уc a†€˜30№ƒh pp0œ`У`€ С€ Œ†0€8‚81†0  0`0  ( [4@ёџ4NormalCJOJQJkH'mH F`F Heading 1,H1$Є№Є<@& 5CJ0KH$B`B Heading 2,H2$Є№Є<@&5CJ$B`B Heading 3,H3$Є№Є<@&5CJ<A@ђџЁ<Default Paragraph FontLўOђLReturn Address  ЦH5CJOJQJkH'8ўo8 Blockquote„h„hЄ<Є<ž0`žList Bullet,ULp & Fџ„а„˜ўЄЄ>ЦTџhЗ№8ўoёџ8 RestartListdђџOJQJ2@22 Footnote TextCJ8&@ЂA8Footnote ReferenceH*оѕљ šЌЏџџџџџџџџЌЌЏљ (&(!џџ!џџ џџ џџ•sёљ ^ љ :Ц J љ sб љ [`Kњ џџ Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Andrei Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Andrei Brad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Williamson Brad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Williamson Brad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Williamson Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Clark‰џџџџџџџџџџџџ џ „h„˜ўЦhOJQJo(З№„ „ШћЦ o(.‰џџџ џџџџџџџџџџџ@€``И+^`I m§љ P@ GTimes New Roman5€Symbol3 Arial?Avant Garde5MUCSeal9Œ0ФRФR New York3Times;Helvetica7MTms Rmn"€авТ&fвТ&fЯТ&fkƒ!€+„ЅРДД€0ѓ ЊџџBerkeley stationery fileletter stationery"Berkeley address stationery letter Brad DeLong Brad DeLong Œ‚ …˜€ŠRVЬ „’˜€‚‰ J дL3 M ,`D(( eўџ р…ŸђљOhЋ‘+'Гй0Д˜Миь( <H d p | ˆ”œЄЌ'Berkeley stationery file.0letter stationeryy  Brad DeLong#Berkeley address stationery lettersNormaly Brad DeLong2adMicrosoft Word 8.0a@FУ#@ЊœŸН@|JkœŸН@|JkœŸНkўџ еЭеœ.“—+,љЎDеЭеœ.“—+,љЎP  hpˆ˜  ЈАИР Ш э' Delong grouptaѓ : Berkeley stationery file Title˜ 6> _PID_GUID'AN{301B2C80-0B42-11D2-8B16-EB2178866D59} ўџџџўџџџ !"#$%ўџџџ'()*+,-ўџџџ/012345ўџџџ§џџџ8ўџџџўџџџўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџRoot Entryџџшџџџџџџџџ РF€ —вaŸН:€DataџџџџџџџџџџџџX џџџџџџџџџџџџloyInfomrtaoin1TableџџKPŸaНKPŸaН џџџџџџџџ џџџў бWordDocumentџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџЂ(џџџџSummaryInformationџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ(џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ&џџџџDocumentSummaryInformationџџџџџџџџ8џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ.џџџџCompObjџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџа.AзњљзљњзљњјњжXкјјObjectPoolјњжјњжјњијњијњйјљйјљйњљйњљдќќдќќџџџџџџџџџџџџ€ —вaŸН€ —вaŸНџџџџџџџџџўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџўџџџџџ РFMicrosoft Word DocumentўџџџNB6WWord.Document.8Root Entryџџшџџџџџџџџ РF ЙмaŸНA€DataџџџџџџџџџџџџX џџџџџџџџloyInfomrtaoin1TableџџKPŸaНKPŸaН џџџџџџџџ џџџў бWordDocumentџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџN*џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџўџџџ !"#$%ўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ>§џџџўџџџ=ўџџџB@ўџџџDEFGHIJKLMўџџџOPQRSTUVWXYZ[\]^_`abўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ0TableџџџџџџџџџџџџCХџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџSummaryInformationџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ(џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ фџџџџDocumentSummaryInformationџџџџџџџџ8џџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџшџџџџCompObjџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџа.AзњљзљњзљњјњжXкјјObjectPoolјњжјњжјњијњијњйјљйјљйњљйњљдќќдќќџџџџџџџџџџџџ€ —вaŸН€ —вaŸНџџџџџџџџџўџџџ ўџџџ ўџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџџ_GUID'AN{301B2C80-0B42-11D2-8B16-EB2178866D59}ўџ р…ŸђљOhЋ‘+'Гй0Д˜Миь( <H d p | ˆ”œЄЌ'Berkeley stationery file.0letter stationeryy  Brad DeLong#Berkeley address stationery lettersNormaly Brad DeLong3adўџџџџџ РFMicrosoft Word DocumentўџџџNB6WWord.Document.8ўџ еЭеœ.“—+,љЎDеЭеœ.“—+,љЎP  hpˆ˜  ЈАИР Ш э' Delong grouptaѓ : Berkeley stationery file Title˜ 6> _PIDMicrosoft Word 8.0a@FУ#@ЊœŸН@|JkœŸН@|JkœŸНk [4@ёџ4NormalCJOJQJkH'mH F`F Heading 1,H1$Є№Є<@& 5CJ0KH$B`B Heading 2,H2$Є№Є<@&5CJ$B`B Heading 3,H3$Є№Є<@&5CJ<A@ђџЁ<Default Paragraph FontLўOђLReturn Address  ЦH5CJOJQJkH'8ўo8 Blockquote„h„hЄ<Є<ž0`žList Bullet,ULp & Fџ„а„˜ўЄЄ>ЦTџhЗ№8ўoёџ8 RestartListdђџOJQJ2@22 Footnote TextCJ8&@ЂA8Footnote ReferenceH*бшь šЌЏџџџџџџџџЌЌЏь (&(!џџ!џџ џџ џџˆfфь ^ %&Cb†ŸЧу'?akmxy-.^_`rst†ф%:;<=>э `'Р`'ь„`' к `'Д!`'Д!`'Д!`'Д!`'Д!`'Д!`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'$ш`'$ш`'$ш`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'Д!?aklmx=э œ€€˜€€˜€€˜€€š€€˜€€ž€€˜€€Р( :Ц J Р( sб љ џџUnknown Brad DeLongJ. Bradford DeLongll>э џџ Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Temin Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Andrei Brad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Andrei Brad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Williamson Brad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Williamson Brad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Williamson Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Clark Brad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Clark‰џџџџџџџџџџџџ џ „h„˜ўЦhOJQJo(З№„ „ШћЦ o(.‰џџџ џџџџџџџџџџџ@€llИ+^lk m§ˆajklrv=>ъ ы ь P@QЂ(Pъ @PД(Pь @QЖ(P @P№#@P–@Pю#@P№#@ GTimes New Roman5€Symbol3 Arial?Avant Garde5MUCSeal9Œ0ФRФR New York3Times;Helvetica7MTms Rmn"€авТ&fвТ&fЯТ&fkƒ!€+„ЅРДД€0ѓ ЊџџBerkeley stationery fileletter stationery"Berkeley address stationery letter Brad DeLong Brad DeLongьЅСc Пљjbjb№S№S *š1š1>­џџџџџџ]<<LДДД tHHHH T,”з№№№№№№№№,хєйьJД№№№№№J ДД№№œT   №Д№Д№Ш,є,\,ˆ,ДД№ 0 <:ц,ДД€ŠѓЖБ”ДH  University of California at Berkeley ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ Professor J. Bradford De Long Department of Economics, 601 Evans Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 (510) 643-4027 283-2709 642-6615 fax http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ , % , " Professor Gregory Clark Department of Economics University of California at Davis Cambridge, MA 02138 Dear Jeffrey, As it is my 38th birthday, I choose to celebrate it by sending you the list of chapters and the first half of the first draft of my twentieth-century economic history manuscript. I hope you enjoy it. And please give me a call… Sincerely yours, Brad De Long Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century   J. Bradford De Long University of California at Berkeley and NBER Copyright 1991-1998 J. Bradford DeLong. I. Introduction Part A: Themes II. Wealth III. Consequences and Causes of Economic Growth Wealth and Utopia Power and Genocide VI. Divergence VII. Economic Policy and Material Prosperity Part B: The Path from the Pre-Industrial World, -1914 VIII. The First Global Economy: Production and Trade IX. The First World Economy: The Gold Standard X. Political and Economic Empires Part C: False Paths, 1914-1945 XI. World War I XII. Restoring[?] the Pre-World War I Economy XIII. Communism and Nazism XIV. The Roaring Twenties XV. The Great Crash and the Great Slump XVI. Hitler and Stalin XVII. Climbing Out of the Depression XVIII. Falling into World War II Part D: The Path to Utopia, 1945-1973 XIX. Present at the Creation XX. The Great Keynesian Boom XXI. False—and True—Starts to Development in the Third World XXII. The High Tide of Social Democracy Part E: The Path to Today, 1973-2000 XXIII. Inflation and Oil Shocks: The End of the Keynesian Age XXIV. Rolling Back the Social Insurance State? XXV. East Asia’s Rise XXVI. The Soviet Union’s Fall XXVII. The Break-Up of the Third World Part E: The Path to Tomorrow XXVIII. Ecology and Populations XIX. Technology and Productivity XXX. Looking Forward  My list of intellectual debts on this project is extremely long, getting longer, and too long to list in total. But the ten most weighty intellectual debts to Lawrence Summers, Barry Eichengreen, Jeffrey Williamson, Andrei Shleifer, David Landes, Christina Romer, Claudia Goldin, Robert Waldmann, Peter Temin, David Romer, Jeffrey Weintraub, Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Joel Mokyr, David Cutler, Larry Katz, Jan de Vries, Greg Mankiw, Robert Barro, Richard Sutch (yes, I know that’s twenty) cannot be evaded. I am also indebted to the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the University of California at Berkeley Institute of Business and Economic Research for financial assistance at various points during this project. This is still a work in progress. Comments welcome. Citations (that identify this as a work-in-progress) very welcome as well.  J. Bradford De Long is professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, co-editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In the past he has worked for the United States government as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. He has also been a John M. Olin fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an Alfred P. Sloan research fellow. %&'ABCDMNŸ    •—опѕії&Rkn|~9=rsќ     ? @ р у   б в д № ё G K L хцStљР(љіёъхслилбёёёёЯШШЦТОЛТОЛТОЛТОЛТОЛТИОЛТШШЦCJCJ$5CJ$5CJ6 j0JUH* CJOJQJCJ 5OJQJ5CJ jмU CJpOJQJ jUCJ CJOJQJ>%&Cb†ŸЧу'?auvw…†:ћћљђщђуллеееаЬЬЬЬЬЬЬЬЬЬ„а$„а ЦФ„ђў Ц Ц„Lџ ЦH ЦH„(%&Cb†ŸЧу'?I`auvw…†:;klm€“”Брт'OPRlmn~“Цмј ;<=s§§§ћћћјђьчтнигЮЩФПКГЉЄŸš•ЃўџџЄўџџЅўџџдўџџшўџџџџџ   џџџ MџџџbџџџrџџџsџџџtџџџŽџџџџџџ‘џџџЙџџџўџџџ бџџџ уџџџ6:;klm€“”Брт'OPRlmn~“Цћћћћѓѓѓѓћ№эшххпнааЮЪнн„  & F„а„˜ўЄ<Є<„ „ $$Є<$$„а Ц„аЦмј ;<=sЉйќ§ўџ  / ] x ’ К б і    јјээрокиииоирокииииииииир„  & F„а„˜ўЄ<Є<  & F„а„˜ўЄ< & FЄ<sЉйќ§ўџ  / ] x ’ К б і     @ ^ { И р с т у  F v Œ Њ б ћіёьчтнигЮЩФПКЕАЋІЁœ—’ˆƒ~ytoje`[6ћџџTћџџjћџџšћџџићџџ§ћџџўћџџџћџџќџџ(ќџџeќџџ‚ќџџ ќџџЦќџџЧќџџШќџџЩќџџъќџџ§џџ&§џџN§џџh§џџƒ§џџБ§џџС§џџр§џџс§џџт§џџу§џџф§џџўџџ7ўџџmўџџ!  @ ^ { И р с т у  F v Œ Њ б в г д ё  2 G H I J §љїїїїїъ§љїїїїїїъ§љїїїупп„а$Є<Є<  & F„а„˜ўЄ<Є<„б в г д ё  2 G H I J K IJdeфхіїјљћіёьчтнкздвввввввв—њџџ˜њџџ™њџџЎњџџЯњџџяњџџ ћџџ ћџџћџџћџџJ K IJdeфхіїјљЖ(Р(§љљљїљїљљ§§ѓ§„а„  $hPАа/ Ар=!А "Аа#8$8%А| HHє@џќџюR)ќ,, P `,- ^ь&'dDavis, CA Greg