ÐÏà¡±á>þÿ ;?þÿÿÿ<ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿì¥Ác ¿ìjbjbðSðS ¢(š1š1>ÿÿÿÿÿÿ]<<<L´´´ ,, Ùtttttttt–˜˜˜˜˜˜,çôÛìÄ´tttttÄ„´´ttt„„„t´t´t–È,ô,\,ˆ,´´t–„2„¶:`,´´–X¢ú¶± „Œ University of California at Berkeley ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ Professor J. Bradford De Long Department of Economics, 601 Evans Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 (510) 643-4027 283-2709 642-6615 fax http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ , % , " Professor Gregory Clark Department of Economics University of California at Davis Davis, CA Dear Greg, As it is my 38th birthday, I choose to celebrate it by sending you the list of chapters and the first half of the first draft of my twentieth-century economic history manuscript. I hope you enjoy it. And please give me a call… Sincerely yours, Brad De Long Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century J. Bradford De LongUniversity of California at Berkeley and NBER Copyright 1991-1998 J. Bradford DeLong. I. Introduction Part A: Themes II. Wealth III. Consequences and Causes of Economic Growth Wealth and Utopia Power and Genocide VI. Divergence VII. Economic Policy and Material Prosperity Part B: The Path from the Pre-Industrial World, -1914 VIII. The First Global Economy: Production and Trade IX. The First World Economy: The Gold Standard X. Political and Economic Empires Part C: False Paths, 1914-1945 XI. World War I XII. Restoring[?] the Pre-World War I Economy XIII. Communism and Nazism XIV. The Roaring Twenties XV. The Great Crash and the Great Slump XVI. Hitler and Stalin XVII. Climbing Out of the Depression XVIII. Falling into World War II Part D: The Path to Utopia, 1945-1973 XIX. Present at the Creation XX. The Great Keynesian Boom XXI. False—and True—Starts to Development in the Third World XXII. The High Tide of Social Democracy Part E: The Path to Today, 1973-2000 XXIII. Inflation and Oil Shocks: The End of the Keynesian Age XXIV. Rolling Back the Social Insurance State? XXV. East Asia’s Rise XXVI. The Soviet Union’s Fall XXVII. The Break-Up of the Third World Part E: The Path to Tomorrow XXVIII. Ecology and Populations XIX. Technology and Productivity XXX. Looking Forward My list of intellectual debts on this project is extremely long, getting longer, and too long to list in total. But the ten most weighty intellectual debts to Lawrence Summers, Barry Eichengreen, Jeffrey Williamson, Andrei Shleifer, David Landes, Christina Romer, Claudia Goldin, Robert Waldmann, Peter Temin, David Romer, Jeffrey Weintraub, Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Joel Mokyr, David Cutler, Larry Katz, Jan de Vries, Greg Mankiw, Robert Barro, Richard Sutch (yes, I know that’s twenty) cannot be evaded. I am also indebted to the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the University of California at Berkeley Institute of Business and Economic Research for financial assistance at various points during this project. This is still a work in progress. Comments welcome. Citations (that identify this as a work-in-progress) very welcome as well. J. Bradford De Long is professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, co-editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In the past he has worked for the United States government as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. He has also been a John M. Olin fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an Alfred P. Sloan research fellow. %&'ABCDMNŸ ˆŠÑÒèéêE^aoq,0efïó 2 3 Ó Ö ú û ÄÅÇãä:>?ØÙFgìùöñêåáÛØÛÑññññÏÈÈÆÂ¾»Â¾»Â¾»Â¾»Â¾»Â¸¾»ÂÈÈÆCJCJ$5CJ$5CJ6 j0JUH*CJOJQJCJ5OJQJ5CJ jÜUCJpOJQJ jUCJCJOJQJ=%&Cb†ŸÇã'?aklmxy-ûûùòéòãÛÛÕÕÕÐÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌ„Ð$„Ð ÆÄ„òþ Æ Æ„Lÿ ÆH ÆH„(%&Cb†ŸÇã'?aklmxy-.^_`rst†‡¤ÓÕBCE_`aq†¹Ïëÿ./0fœýýýúôîéäßÚÕÐËÆÁ¼µ«¦¡œ—’mþÿÿ£þÿÿ¤þÿÿ¥þÿÿÔþÿÿèþÿÿÿÿÿ ÿÿÿ MÿÿÿbÿÿÿrÿÿÿsÿÿÿtÿÿÿŽÿÿÿÿÿÿ‘ÿÿÿ¹ÿÿÿþÿÿÿ Ñÿÿÿ ãÿÿÿ5-.^_`rst†‡¤ÓÕBCE_`aq†¹ûûûûóóóóûðíèååßÝÐÐÎÊÝÝ„ &F„Ð„˜þ¤<¤<„ „ $$¤<$$„Ð Æ„Ð¹Ïëÿ./0fœÌïðñòó " P k … Ä é øøííàÞÚØØØÞØàÞÚØØØØØØØØØà„ &F„Ð„˜þ¤<¤< &F„Ð„˜þ¤< &F¤<œÌïðñòó " P k … Ä é 3 Q n « Ó Ô Õ Ö û 9iÄÅûöñìçâÝØÓÎÉÄ¿ºµ°«¦¡œ—’ˆƒ~ytoje`[ûÿÿ6ûÿÿTûÿÿjûÿÿšûÿÿØûÿÿýûÿÿþûÿÿÿûÿÿüÿÿ(üÿÿeüÿÿ‚üÿÿ üÿÿÆüÿÿÇüÿÿÈüÿÿÉüÿÿêüÿÿýÿÿ&ýÿÿNýÿÿhýÿÿƒýÿÿ±ýÿÿÁýÿÿàýÿÿáýÿÿâýÿÿãýÿÿäýÿÿþÿÿ7þÿÿ! 3 Q n « Ó Ô Õ Ö û 9iÄÅÆÇä%:;<=ýù÷÷÷÷÷êýù÷÷÷÷÷÷êýù÷÷÷ãßß„Ð$¤<¤< &F„Ð„˜þ¤<¤<„ÅÆÇä%:;<=><=WX×ØéêëìûöñìçâßÜÙ××××××××—úÿÿ˜úÿÿ™úÿÿ®úÿÿÏúÿÿïúÿÿûÿÿ ûÿÿûÿÿ=><=WX×Øéêëìýùùù÷ù÷ùùýý„ $hP°Ð/ °à=!° "°Ð#8$8%°|HHô@ÿüÿîR)ü,,P `,- ^ì&'dkž¹6‡VçYáƒbåBAÏ¾4ž¦~ò~òšÌ°ñÉbï7K£þM<Ñûä:‡¹÷‰ÆH[ô <ÌœSn¨mM³ãß@µJ-!&UT½!*~B×À(à T”ÌÀŽ ^ª,ÊÿÄ£I½{-4vm $Ò+êÁ³ÌúÒÃ+O À•†¯±¿™»&÷£]ƒN:Ô£œ/âò5î³v,òÅN;Ò"e¥eéÆŒŸhŽÇœø‹œÊÂi»âË&EûZ“€Õ³½“n;µ¥¤'þœ4›½D…öH:tõ Ž ^ªïÃ8BÎ“n»£Û€È_üƒ¸Û±ˆ°FQ:³³Ð²º5“uU/6¶|ëøu¯iœû^_â<9?G%à;±`Å\Á×¡H&JtNÏøûÊ; éÜÈNï,"ã?©ë†g÷„uƒD‚C·ïÿÅ¶: )¨¾¡î}áÍ)V‰ÜDdO¨ëèðH² ð cð$›ÿÿÿ›ÿÿÿA¿ÿð€Bð@öðNÍP‡?•¬gèÚFÿD"¤ TðöðNÍP‡?•¬gèÚFA\9pÉ>¸–âþxœ‘AKAÇÿ£IL=‚Ú@X¢¥Ž)î¦•ÒÐK·É*Ce…] J„¢¸‡`j!ÉÁ«Pè©=µ—ÒC¿B¡'Á“~€~ˆ^OãÛ™D=tga÷ÍÌïýÞÛ™d“˜B™ma|¨7Š šƒVAk@jtqˆŸØEÊ¡ y§eœÄäÁè=0=½Žn2Å¿‘ o=S°X½¿–¸µË0"ëÍÈƒŒ¹cÁ¦<ûy7½AvöQÄKd0Nu—¥øR ‡sÍ?AÉµÆ»¨aL`),P½xsóé×^ðÆ[ñ6ãóù~Ë7Ú¯*Èò2æõÉídÕ‰PçÛ#ê#ùæQ7øÉ)Ô„ïi|_ˆú#ûk|Šä³Ù•ÕÐrýeúkm—§Äþ“Ö¯«"y9ˆš„¢êéœ—(²ié<38ÉíLèúVUxË«'{LäF|šlòngŸäÎXì\ \¿"ÂŠÎ‹WôW5é]7ôªÈ9ºO—ýÒØvˆ9w^1ØÉ¤Ò¸>ñCº"ƒK‘|Vï:&â¯t}6¸ÉËz×9oBºN.Er[ëby"¥ëÂp«ŠäÎÿ\]¡·ÓØGéYÉÁóµÛV»³Ýi¼ßZ¬fÔéD+A„Ï%÷DdK ¨ðèðH² ð cð$íþÿÿíþÿÿA¿ÿð€Bð[¡$†KcÃq^QÔú¬Z®ÿ7 "¤ Tð/¡$†KcÃq^QÔú¬Z®š9„¸–ýþxœ½NQ…¿¹,Ë¿ !£„Žrµ 4ü4ÖZPX™øðšP-…¯àƒ;í±õ ÖÙ½,lbLnî=3sæÌÉ5†ª¬è›2e 44‡*h úØðY°æw4œ5q6ÂiòÔ½c¥Þí'Dñ;Ž¾ ê²zf[q=!m;‡?u\Ÿ4µ÷Eäª)>ù$G1Ï:+(~Áµtº;þ%Y*ééüñá‰J¸\é¾0.hËº4ñFS¯~ãõxúC¯ Õâv÷†Ž9Sïmù8²Õ2[ƒ¼•½Ïîh~©¿_ÕìÊÏMËÝ~ËÛ?5Ÿ%ÁV;P!)3That economic policyÑthe management of economies by qI qH¡qJ*BgovernmentsÑin the twentieth century was at best inept. 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There wþÿ ÕÍÕœ.“—+,ù®DÕÍÕœ.“—+,ù®8ôhpˆ˜ ¨°¸À ÈÕ' Delong groupC3@‚š:Title˜ 6> _PID_GUID'AN{FEB38908-C3B9-11D1-8B16-EBF1993BB40A}\¬ð0\°`ÿÿ\«P\¬ð« Ô\¬ð« ä\° \°\±¸\\¬ð«0 \¬À \°`7@P8N\¬ÀPN°\¯X\àð\°`\¬ÀHHPNÜ\®0\°`ÿÿ\¬À\®« Ýè\®« \¾X\¾p\¾˜\\®«0`\¬À \°`PJL@E([\¬À[µlÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ\®ì\¯ð\°`\¬ÀHHPMp\¯00\°`ÿÿ\¬À\¯0« Øÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ\¯0« $y05Ø\®ì54\\¯0«0$y\«PP\Áð™™ÌÌÿÿ\«P€PJd\° \Áð5&,\®ì5'¬\«P54X\®ì55¼\®ì57h\®ì59\®ì5S€\®ì5Z\®ì5]\®ì5^ˆ\®ì5_¨\®ì5`¤\®ì5c¨\®ì5d|\®ì5e,\®ì5ià\®ì5j¨\®ì5q\\®ì5r0\®ì5r°\®ì5sx\®ì5td\®ì5ud\®ì5uÀ\®ì5vÈ\®ì5wt\®ì5xÔ\®ì5y \®ì5zœ\®ì5{„\®ì5{ì\®ì5}\®ì5~D\®ì5~˜\®ì5~ì\®ì5«ø\®ì5²ð\®ì5³¤\®ì5´\®ì5´T\®ì5´À\®ì5Ä\®ì5Å`\®ì5Ë˜\®ì5ËH\®ì5ÎD\®ì5Ï˜\®ì5Ôt\®ì5Ò0\®ì5Õ¼\®ì5Ú\®ì5ÛD\®ì5ÜL\®ì5Ýl\®ì5Ý¼\®ì5ÝØ\®ì6ü\®ì6X\®ì6´\®ì6\®ì6|\®ì6à\®ì6D\®ì6¸\®ì6,\®ì6 \®ì6\®ì6ˆ\®ì6ü\®ì6 p\®ì6 ä\®ì6 X\®ì6 À\®ì6(\®ì6\®ì6\®ì6l\®ì6Ð\®ì6 D\®ì6 ¨\®ì6\®ì6€\®ì6ä\®ì6@\®ì6´\®ì6\®ì6|\®ì6ì\®ì6`\®ì6Ô\®ì6L\®ì6°\®ì6\®ì6ˆ\®ì6ü\®ì6d\®ì6À\®ì6(\®ì6œ\®ìªþHXð\¯ˆÀ\°¸ð\°À?ð\°È?ð\°€?ð\±èð\±ðÿð\°ˆð\²À\¯€ ð\¯H À\¯Pð\²(@\°P À\²ð\² ?ð\±ø=°\°ÿð\²ð\²ð\° ð\°¨ð\¯@À\¯x [4@ñÿ4NormalCJOJQJkH'mH F`FHeading 1,H1$¤ð¤<@&5CJ0KH$B`BHeading 2,H2$¤ð¤<@&5CJ$B`BHeading 3,H3$¤ð¤<@&5CJ<A@òÿ¡<Default Paragraph FontLþOòLReturn Address ÆH5CJOJQJkH'8þo8 Blockquote„h„h¤<¤<ž0`žList Bullet,ULp & Fÿ„Ð„˜þ¤¤>ÆTÿh·ð8þoñÿ8RestartListdòÿOJQJ2@22 Footnote TextCJ8&@¢A8Footnote ReferenceH*Ñèì š¬¯ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ¬¬¯ì ( &(!ÿÿ!ÿÿ ÿÿ ÿÿˆfäì ^ ì-¹ =ìœÅì >í ÿÿBrad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:TeminBrad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:TeminBrad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:AndreiBrad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:AndreiBrad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:WilliamsonBrad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:WilliamsonBrad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:WilliamsonBrad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:ClarkBrad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:ClarkBrad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Goldin‰ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ„h„˜þÆhOJQJo(·ð„ „ÈûÆ o(.‰ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ@€ll¸+^lkmýì @ GTimes New Roman5€Symbol3Arial?Avant Garde5MUCSeal9Œ0ÄRÄR New York3Times;Helvetica7MTms Rmn"Á€ÐñÂ&fñÂ&fÓÂ&fkƒ!€+„¥À´´€0ó ëªÿÿBerkeley stationery fileletter stationery"Berkeley address stationery letterBrad DeLongBrad DeLong. qI qH¡qJ‰+-;[Picture: leftÑthe harvest inþÿ à…ŸòùOh«‘+'³Ù0´˜¼Øì( <H dp| ˆ”œ¤¬'Berkeley stationery file.0letter stationeryy Brad DeLong#Berkeley address stationery lettersNormalyBrad DeLong2adMicrosoft Word 8.0a@FÃ#@Â œŸ½@öï¿ Ÿ½@öï¿ Ÿ½k#0PT°Ð/ °à=!°"°# $ %°|,,P `ÿóÿµÙ «#)ü,,P `,- ^ì&' Tð+CO•CèY|°0l•ªÞæ ·àÄd„UùþxœÍV_h[Uþ$K›6];íIK{Û:¨k¡I;Ûî¡u²ëç¯ø`šÝtÁhšT7é‹ |Aô¡à£(…Ñ=:7EÖ§vHE™8Ûlmsý~¿{’&5=áäûî¹ç÷}¿sÎ½çÜº;„¢–]µtÄeûÉF!]Ð†;úâ#Z"Ù¤4S¬µN”–\5ä+*P÷=ê3—›|¶.4VŠ³)pM µëþ¯CÉ¤s*«¢Œdª(s•eŽZ-‹À¼j×úŠJ™ð(jr6-«·”³U—Æ%§wŒ¢u‹k·xu—¹‰GW×òrs³ŒòEÉo¹FÕN®#ü%J*‹ ³¨^¥5K«*Cyõ†jVoªAuIM¡ê1gÑ–Å½,ú 11 92 ¸þºþÀþ¦œ\ýûûùùùùù#0PT°Ð/ °à=!°"°# $ %°|,,P `ÿóÿµÙ «#)ü,,P `,- ^ì&' Tð+CO•CèY|°0l•ªÞæ ·àÄd„UùþxœÍV_h[Uþ$K›6];íIK{Û:¨k¡I;Ûî¡u²ëç¯ø`šÝtÁhšT7é‹ |Aô¡à£(…Ñ=:7EÖ§vHE™8Ûlmsý~¿{’&5=áäûî¹ç÷}¿sÎ½çÜº;„¢–]µtÄeûÉF!]Ð†;úâ#Z"Ù¤4S¬µN”–\5ä+*P÷=ê3—›|¶.4VŠ³)pM µëþ¯CÉ¤s*«¢Œdª(s•eŽZ-‹À¼j×úŠJ™ð(jr6-«·”³U—Æ%§wŒ¢u‹k·xu—¹‰GW×òrs³ŒòEÉo¹FÕN®#ü%J*‹ ³¨^¥5K«*Cyõ†jVoªAuIM¡ê1gÑ–Å½,údÑ7‹˜,b³ÐÈB‹s ¬®ÖÖz½ìG?ÀƒãáÅœnS’Vi6h‘îÒ ýŽ«Mh)h¶A;qô¿$uJrà\8'Îsä\9gÎuÃÃÑ(æ‘ý®ÂñâN_Áï:ünÁïGø}¿_(OÐtA»ýðbOöæç$¹qŽœ+çÌ¹³nÀ¶¯\¹qCüxí/^².èc¢¯‰±&"Mh™Ð4Õ ê”<#ìÉÞÈs‘œ87Î‘såœ9÷«•«ªŸº™çŸ¨·ÝC½õ@<¬Eu»t#Q/¹©w¸F•X¥Í(•£Tlz»¨>íØ ýP× ‘k|[·ý Ü¡Q¾ƒ8·ÖôkDÿvèvàºý`‡ãK!îâ³¾¡u¶P¿öøð¾øõÈl}èŒ¸ƒ*±J[·¬œ£°ü§uvpiõ{wËö€òÃpÞ~øòš<ëæµyEãIG5Ö:H¿i¼©ñS—5Îi4 yWùMïQóðÙLj\Ð¸¨qEãªÆ¼ƒxÂÔ8¥1 äñ4ÐišP×°ùÈí=m%¬¹0á©qc7$Ü=BM¼çÊ¾ÛÿTOÿ“±Ùt*6IÇ’ #5Ò,ã‰T,›½`<žN¦ŒSÉTÄ2¦/ÔÿA«÷9+’N¦¨bîÈO-¾I+>g¥c‘0¼Z0ÃìVG}È}Ü»ÁÒçÞ cÿ)« Tð¥# õÞ€é[Û–®4?ÏÜ ¤ì¼eðcQåþxœÍVMhcU>÷%Æ¦M›ÌOµ¤ƒ}iu¨3mIÚ±i‚¢YX§3LD^Ó×1!&š¦ÇE îº)ÌBWÊ´.Dq7EE˜¡¸pÝ‚âŒŒu*:i;MŸß9ï&Mú.½áä|ï¾{¾ï»÷¾¿æUBS‹F+1œ9h¤úpF|D_’—R©ô¢Y˜®òW(†ó^õ¡ÑD~G7©Õ9^–Fzü[`JÒ•Q)Î”T)Æ*Ãq‹ðœ4êÔüŠújNx’CKjÖð–Õªóu·gÌªED5"Z‘:5Ñèêºyóøq™å%ñ7 ¯S´éz•ÆG(¯"4¯ú 8DËjŒVÕ8•Õkê¨²T?F&”]p}œË`Lc3¨É 6Ž¸˜7¼¶ÖÔäó‰Þ×Ð@=k1¦Û”§hžîÑý‰ZÍàêçIpBcZ¬ÉÚì½°'öÆÙ+{†wá MMaYoz¨-`úc>‡ÞÐ[£eºO«´.?8;À}PbMÖfì…=Á{¯ì™½3oØq®][Y=Þ{Ô‹–ìÆ$16‰š$j“àHRûuÑHÈ5Âš¬Íà…=‰7öÈ^Ù3{_lÜU}ÕuË:/POg"„hAþÿ ÕÍÕœ.“—+,ù®DÕÍÕœ.“—+,ù®Phpˆ˜ ¨°¸À Èí' Delong grouptaó :Berkeley stationery fileTitle˜ 6> _PID_GUID'AN{301B2C80-0B42-11D2-8B16-EB2178866D59}€k—÷žwQ•¥ x³ä:È„0 ‚·”Ðð¸vtøˆä¥¥ÿíÓAlaU'èÎpGþÑ¬êoGçÖbïñaü»³>ýßVÂ¿#:åêþâìä·Ø] ÿÔ±ÿRÙ¨Mˆý2Â7‰j3¼|íù¾ÑïGæùX½†Õ7Ôú÷Lõ6²{¿£ÿ=ÿÙlÖ<‡I¡žI¿Ùcôªo7TŸ ·^,¦³ébÚž6Ü$Ñ©@Û…‚•›~3_(ZühªgÒß$1ZÓ/Lcé\:w™iÌ1+73e¥Š3ôðEÃ—ÁªìñòøÙË…tj&‹2[hÎÛY«hORCýºFkß™»oç_L4 Sociobiology has an extremely bad track record and even the latest crop seem to be made up of little more than just-so stories without strong supporting evidence or proposed mechanisms. 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"À!þÿ à…ŸòùOh«‘+'³Ù0´˜¼Øì( <H dp| ˆ”œ¤¬'Berkeley stationery file.0letter stationeryy Brad DeLong#Berkeley address stationery lettersNormalyBrad DeLong3adþÿÿÿÿÿ ÀFMicrosoft Word DocumentþÿÿÿNB6WWord.Document.8‡^ôu‰õgÏºþÿ ÕÍÕœ.“—+,ù®DÕÍÕœ.“—+,ù®Phpˆ˜ ¨°¸À Èí' Delong grouptaó :Berkeley stationery fileTitle˜ 6> _PIDMicrosoft Word 8.0a@FÃ#@Â œŸ½@öï¿ Ÿ½@öï¿ Ÿ½kÿÿÿ9Î9Îýÿ9Î9Îûÿý9Îýÿšÿ€HHQCbJ$ý9Îýÿ9Îÿÿ9Îýÿ9Îÿÿ9Îýÿ ÿ9Î9Îüÿ þÿ^÷ýÿ9ÎÆ9Î9Îýÿ9Î^÷^÷9Îýÿ9Îÿ9Î9Îýÿ ÿþ9Îýÿ9Îúÿ9Îúÿý9Îýÿ ^÷ÿ^÷üÿ þÿ9Îýÿ þÿ9Îýÿ þÿ9Îýÿþ9Îüÿšÿ€HHQPdW$ùÿý9Îýÿ þÿ^÷ýÿ9ÎÆ9Î9Îýÿ9Î^÷^÷9Îýÿ9Îÿ9Î9Îýÿ ÿ9Î9Îü [4@ñÿ4NormalCJOJQJkH'mH F`FHeading 1,H1$¤ð¤<@&5CJ0KH$B`BHeading 2,H2$¤ð¤<@&5CJ$B`BHeading 3,H3$¤ð¤<@&5CJ<A@òÿ¡<Default Paragraph FontLþOòLReturn Address ÆH5CJOJQJkH'8þo8 Blockquote„h„h¤<¤<ž0`žList Bullet,ULp & Fÿ„Ð„˜þ¤¤>ÆTÿh·ð8þoñÿ8RestartListdòÿOJQJ2@22 Footnote TextCJ8&@¢A8Footnote ReferenceH*Ïæê š¬¯ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ¬¬¯ê ( &(!ÿÿ!ÿÿ ÿÿ ÿÿ†dâê ^ %&Cb†ŸÇã(@Sghiwx+,\]^pqr„â#89:;<ë `'À`'ì„`' Ú `'´!`'´!`'´!`'´!`'´!`'´!`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'$è`'$è`'$è`'PS`'PS`'PS`'PS`'´!(@Sgiwx+;ë œ€€˜€€ž€€˜€€˜€€ž€€˜€€ž€€š€€ž€€˜€€")-¹ =")œÅì ÿÿUnknownBrad DeLongJ. Bradford DeLongñõ<ë ÿÿBrad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:TeminBrad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:AndreiBrad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:AndreiBrad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:WilliamsonBrad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:WilliamsonBrad DeLongRPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:WilliamsonBrad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:ClarkBrad DeLongMPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:ClarkBrad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:GoldinBrad DeLongNPwrbk 1400 HD:From old powerbook:Website:TCEH:1998_Draft:Correspondence:Goldin‰ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ„h„˜þÆhOJQJo(·ð„ „ÈûÆ o(.‰ÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿÿ@€õõ¸+^õñmý '@fnuñõ;<è é ê @‘¢(L @¾(Ô @‘ )ì @)î@Ö#@|@Ô#@Ö#@ GTimes New Roman5€Symbol3Arial?Avant Garde5MUCSeal9Œ0ÄRÄR New York3Times;Helvetica7MTms Rmn"€ÐñÂ&fñÂ&fÓÂ&fkƒ!€+„¥À´´€0ó ªÿÿBerkeley stationery fileletter stationery"Berkeley address stationery letterBrad DeLongBrad DeLonga certainly did not benefit from the waves of technological innovation and improvement that were beginning to sweep over Europe. Others argue that the quadruple congruence of printing, religious doctrines generating higher literacy, technological innovation driven by constant wars between European nation-states, and expanded trade greatly multiplied Europe’s command over its environment and banished the Malthusian forces that had previously swung into actiì¥Ác ¿ìjbjbðSðS *š1š1<ÿÿÿÿÿÿ]<<L´´´ „šššš¦,¤EBBBBBBBBrtttttt,SôGì ¥´BBBBB ^´´BBîT^^^B´B´BrÈ,ô,\,ˆ,´´Br^4^’:<,´´rÒÃú¶±¤öš^h University of California at Berkeley ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ Professor J. Bradford De Long Department of Economics, 601 Evans Berkeley, CA 94720-3880 (510) 643-4027 283-2709 642-6615 fax http://econ161.berkeley.edu/ , % , " Professor Gregory Clark Department of Economics University of California at Davis Davis, CA Dear Greg, As it is my 38th birthday, I choose to celebrate it by sending you the list of chapters and the first half of the first draft of my twentieth-century economic history manuscript. I hope you enjoy it. And please give me a call… Sincerely yours, Brad De Long Slouching Towards Utopia?: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century J. Bradford De LongUniversity of California at Berkeley and NBER Copyright 1991-1998 J. Bradford DeLong. I. Introduction Part A: Themes II. Wealth III. Consequences and Causes of Economic Growth Wealth and Utopia Power and Genocide VI. Divergence VII. Economic Policy and Material Prosperity Part B: The Path from the Pre-Industrial World, -1914 VIII. The First Global Economy: Production and Trade IX. The First World Economy: The Gold Standard X. Political and Economic Empires Part C: False Paths, 1914-1945 XI. World War I XII. Restoring[?] the Pre-World War I Economy XIII. Communism and Nazism XIV. The Roaring Twenties XV. The Great Crash and the Great Slump XVI. Hitler and Stalin XVII. Climbing Out of the Depression XVIII. Falling into World War II Part D: The Path to Utopia, 1945-1973 XIX. Present at the Creation XX. The Great Keynesian Boom XXI. False—and True—Starts to Development in the Third World XXII. The High Tide of Social Democracy Part E: The Path to Today, 1973-2000 XXIII. Inflation and Oil Shocks: The End of the Keynesian Age XXIV. Rolling Back the Social Insurance State? XXV. East Asia’s Rise XXVI. The Soviet Union’s Fall XXVII. The Break-Up of the Third World Part E: The Path to Tomorrow XXVIII. Ecology and Populations XIX. Technology and Productivity XXX. Looking Forward My list of intellectual debts on this project is extremely long, getting longer, and too long to list in total. But the ten most weighty intellectual debts to Lawrence Summers, Barry Eichengreen, Jeffrey Williamson, Andrei Shleifer, David Landes, Christina Romer, Claudia Goldin, Robert Waldmann, Peter Temin, David Romer, Jeffrey Weintraub, Paul Krugman, Paul Romer, Joel Mokyr, David Cutler, Larry Katz, Jan de Vries, Greg Mankiw, Robert Barro, Richard Sutch (yes, I know that’s twenty) cannot be evaded. I am also indebted to the National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the University of California at Berkeley Institute of Business and Economic Research for financial assistance at various points during this project. This is still a work in progress. Comments welcome. Citations (that identify this as a work-in-progress) very welcome as well. J. Bradford De Long is professor of economics at the University of California at Berkeley, co-editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. In the past he has worked for the United States government as Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy. He has also been a John M. Olin fellow at the National Bureau of Economic Research, and an Alfred P. Sloan research fellow. %&'ABCDMNŸ ˆŠÑÒèéêE^aoq,0efïó 2 3 Ó Ö ú û ÄÅÇãä:>?ØÙFgì")ùöñêåáÛØÛÑññññÏÈÈÆÂ¾»Â¾»Â¾»Â¾»Â¾»Â¸¾»ÂÈÈÆCJCJ$5CJ$5CJ6 j0JUH*CJOJQJCJ5OJQJ5CJ jÜUCJpOJQJ jUCJCJOJQJ>%&Cb†ŸÇã'?aklmxy-ûûùòéòãÛÛÕÕÕÐÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌÌ„Ð$„Ð ÆÄ„òþ Æ Æ„Lÿ ÆH ÆH„(%&Cb†ŸÇã'?aklmxy-.^_`rst†‡¤ÓÕBCE_`aq†¹Ïëÿ./0fœýýýúôîéäßÚÕÐËÆÁ¼µ«¦¡œ—’mþÿÿ£þÿÿ¤þÿÿ¥þÿÿÔþÿÿèþÿÿÿÿÿ ÿÿÿ MÿÿÿbÿÿÿrÿÿÿsÿÿÿtÿÿÿŽÿÿÿÿÿÿ‘ÿÿÿ¹ÿÿÿþÿÿÿ Ñÿÿÿ ãÿÿÿ5-.^_`rst†‡¤ÓÕBCE_`aq†¹ûûûûóóóóûðíèååßÝÐÐÎÊÝÝ„ &F„Ð„˜þ¤<¤<„ „ $$¤<$$„Ð Æ„Ð¹Ïëÿ./0fœÌïðñòó " P k … Ä é øøííàÞÚØØØÞØàÞÚØØØØØØØØØà„ &F„Ð„˜þ¤<¤< &F„Ð„˜þ¤< &F¤<œÌïðñòó " P k … Ä é 3 Q n « Ó Ô Õ Ö û 9iÄÅûöñìçâÝØÓÎÉÄ¿ºµ°«¦¡œ—’ˆƒ~ytoje`[ûÿÿ6ûÿÿTûÿÿjûÿÿšûÿÿØûÿÿýûÿÿþûÿÿÿûÿÿüÿÿ(üÿÿeüÿÿ‚üÿÿ üÿÿÆüÿÿÇüÿÿÈüÿÿÉüÿÿêüÿÿýÿÿ&ýÿÿNýÿÿhýÿÿƒýÿÿ±ýÿÿÁýÿÿàýÿÿáýÿÿâýÿÿãýÿÿäýÿÿþÿÿ7þÿÿ! 3 Q n « Ó Ô Õ Ö û 9iÄÅÆÇä%:;<=ýù÷÷÷÷÷êýù÷÷÷÷÷÷êýù÷÷÷ãßß„Ð$¤<¤< &F„Ð„˜þ¤<¤<„ÅÆÇä%:;<=><=WX×ØéêëìûöñìçâßÜÙ××××××××—úÿÿ˜úÿÿ™úÿÿ®úÿÿÏúÿÿïúÿÿûÿÿ ûÿÿûÿÿ=><=WX×Øéêëìä(")ýùùù÷ù÷ùùýýóý„Ð„ $hP°Ð/ °à=!° "°Ð#8$8%°|HHô@ÿüÿîR)ü,,P `,- ^ì&'dClaudia GoldinHarvard University Cambridge, MA 02138Claudiapart