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Year 2000 Retail Sales
J. Bradford DeLong
- Seasonally-adjusted retail sales peaked late in the third quarter of 2000.
- The fourth quarter saw retail sales decline on a seasonally-adjusted basis from the values reached in September.
- Of course, the phrase "seasonal adjustment" is very important: what it really means is that sales did not grow as fast in the fourth quarter as one would expect given the normal pre-Christmastime boom.
- Moreover, in December of 2000 retail sales were still 3.7% higher than in December of 1999: 2000 was a very strong year for economic growth.
- The upshot? As of mid-January, claims that the economy is sliding into recession are still very premature...
Professor of Economics J. Bradford DeLong, 601 Evans Hall, #3880
University of California at Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
(510) 643-4027 phone (510) 642-6615 fax
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