Recent U.S. Inflation

J. Bradford DeLong
delong@econ.berkeley.edu
http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/

July 2001


  • Up until the middle of 2000, U.S. inflation was clearly rising: the twelve-month moving average of inflation was almost always higher than it had been the month before.
  • Since mid-2000, U.S. inflation has been stable.
  • Apparently even the small slowdown in 2000 in economic growth was enough to eliminate upward pressure on inflation.
  • Since usually changes in inflation are a lagging indicator, expect inflation to drop over the next year even if production recovers rapidly.


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