Graph of the Week

Created: 2000-08-31
Last Modified: 20
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Graph of the Week: Presidential Polls

J. Bradford DeLong

  • An extraordinary number of polling organizations are tracking the U.S. presidential election this fall.
  • The chart above shows the Gore vote minus the Bush vote, as a percentage of the electorate, for as many polls as I have been able to find since the beginning of August.
  • The most annoying thing about these polls is that they are clearly biased: the big spreads between the polls spring not from simple statistical sampling variability, but from different ways of selecting people to interview, different definitions of "likely voters," and differences in how voters are forced to make a choice.

Professor of Economics J. Bradford DeLong, 601 Evans Hall, #3880
University of California at Berkeley
Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
(510) 643-4027 phone (510) 642-6615 fax

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