February 24, 2003

Morgan Stanley Reduces Growth Forecast

Morgan Stanley reduces its forecast for U.S. growth in 2003. A 2.1% year-over-year growth estimate carries with it the implication that the unemployment rate will rise in 2003 to 6.5 or higher, depending on how rapid you think underlying fundamental productivity growth is.

Morgan Stanley: Richard Berner and David Greenlaw (New York and London): We're downgrading our US and global economic forecasts.  In our view, surging energy prices and the shock to consumer and business sentiment from today's stalemate over Iraq and tomorrow?s likelihood of war will tax growth appreciably.  Year on year, we now expect US real growth this year to struggle to an anemic 2.1%...

Posted by DeLong at February 24, 2003 07:50 PM | TrackBack
Post a comment