Semi-Daily Journal

The war costs will soon be considered a bargain. We are now much safer after invading Iraq. This should result in an economic boom. America with the help of her allies have proven itself capable of deterring terrorism and overcoming our military foes. The stock market should go up considerably, and oil prices are rapidly dropping.

The Liberal Democrats are rightfully being marginalized. By the way, has Tom Daschle announced his resignation? If not, what is he waiting for? Will there even be a serious Democrat candidate willing to do battle against President Bush in 2004? I guess they will have to find some sucker willing to commit political suicide.

David, I found a couple of typos in your comments above and have corrected below. Your welcome.

The war costs will soon be considered a grievious waste. We are now much less safe after invading Iraq. This should result in economic uncertainty. America with its largely unilateral action has proven itself capable of inciting terrorism and strengthening our ideologic foes. The stock market should wobble considerably, and oil prices are rapidly becoming even more volatile.

The Democrats are rightfully increasing in numbers and vigor. By the way, has Tom Daschle been named Senate Majority Leader yet? If not, what are they waiting for? Will there even be a serious Democrat candidate NOT willing to do battle against President Bush in 2004? I guess it will be easy now that Bush is committing political suicide.

At what point does the impending war with Syria become the excuse for a sputtering economy?

What's interesting is how Bush's supporters have turned their backs on the demigods of capitalism--Financial Times, Economist, WSJ, Forbes-- who have looked beyond the veneer of "it's all about Iraq." Uncertainty about the future is multiplying at a prodigious rate. The oil wells in Iraq and Kuwait are a very small part of that uncertainty.

Dennis,

Yes indeedy. For instance, have you notices how tight natural gas inventories are? If oil stocks don't get topped up pretty quickly (in the short run, look for a big rise as an armada of tankers from Saudi Arabia arrive) and if OPEC's mutterings about keeping crude prices away from the lower end of the target band have teeth, then electric generation this summer will depend more on natural gas than last year. Gas will be used for all peak generation and more baseline generation than normal. With gas inventories tight, that will mean huge swings in electricity prices at peak periods. So oil, gas and electricity might be quite expensive. The energy tax could persist well past the war. Firms are typically thought to be less eager to engage in capital spending when energy costs are high. This represents a risk that (Syria aside), the economy will have some heavy slogging to do immediately after hostilities are ended.

The uncertainties of our situation in the Mideast will, of course, have to be re-explored once the war ends, to begin assessing whether the Thomas/Pearl/Bush or Dan/Daschle? view of the world is the correct one. One thing I do know. When buying a used car, don't rely on the salesman for an assessment of the cars state of repair. When I read statements that reflect absolute certainty about how the war (the budget, the NCAA final, the world) will turn out, I know I'm listening to a used car salesman. Seen any around here?

K Harris,

The silver lining in all you've just posted is that all my friends with air conditioning will be sweating it out like we do most summers in our old-fashioned house. On the other hand I'll still be bearing the cost of under-employment in an under-performing economy.

Lindsey should have been fired for the fiscal policy brought forward by this administration over the past two years. When the government starts to hide budget numbers from the people look out. According to the Washington Post,

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A2713-2003Mar21.html

insiders like Lindsey are not the only ones being clubbed by the administration to fall in line. I think it is a huge political mistake to force legislation that does not have popular support or is unable to win in a compromise.

Also, keep in mind that the war Iraq is only meant to be the prelude to a string of battles in the Middle East.

QUOTE "The war in Iraq is just the beginning," Peres told Israel Channel One Television. "Problems of the first magnitude can be expected therafter, as well: Iran, North Korea, and Libya. UNQUOTE

"Could U.S. be at war for years?" By Bradley Burston, Haaretz Correspondent, Haaretz,Friday, March 21, 2003:

http://www.haaretzdaily.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=275074&displayTypeCd=1&sideCd=1&contrassID=2

P.S. Yes, I know NK is not in the Middle East. Thanks.

When economists count the "cost" of something, does indirect costs, uh, count? What is the effect of oil being 25% overvalued worldwide at a time of fragile economic activities? What is the effect of managers holding off their spending until this splendid little war is resolved? How much does it cost the airlines when nobody is flying overseas? What are the very real costs of having everybody in the freakin world angry at the United States?
Is it good or bad for your Public Relations to kill a bunch of people with expensive weapons and have the pictures beamed across the world?

Shout it from the rooftops: the Republicans have policies that are bad for business. You have already lost money because these deeply irresponsible men are in charge. And you are going to lose more.

Nor is Libya either, really.

... unless you own (or work for) one of those businesses that have been offered to rebuild Iraq.

"Nor is Libya either, really."

Technically, no, but regarding the major implications and the long-term costs of this conflict, it does not make much difference. Next time, I will use the term Arab World to avoid this kind of discussion.

(By the way, I learned by heart the localisation, name, and capital of all countries at the age of 14 - school requirement in Belgium - which may explain why I find disccussions like this a little bit boring.)

“What are the very real costs of having everybody in the freakin world angry at the United States? “

The “everybody” you are referring to are analogous to little children who get upset when their parents tell them to behave themselves. We just need to pat them on the head, ignore them for awhile, and eventually they will start acting like mature adults. Trust me on this, the polls throughout the world will soon show that America will be loved and respected far more than before. This will be especially true in Iraq!

Also, is James Fallows right about Iraq becoming our "51st state?" The answer is no. The ultimate costs will be very limited. Our dropping oil prices may very well cover the costs of both the war and the rebuilding.

Most of you have already probably read this, but William D. Nordhaus conducted a study of the overall costs of the war on Iraq, including affects on oil and financial markets (negative and positive) a few months ago. For those that haven't read it yet, take a look. His conclusion seems to be that it'll cost between $160 billion and $1.6 trillion... a pretty damn wide spread. Still, it is interesting to think of the oppurtunity costs of such an investment in security, especially when one considers that the current administration has systematically attempted to veto or undermine attempts to increase funding for domestic homeland security to save money (there's a New Republic article on this recently that I read. Since TNR recently became a pay site, unfortunately, it's a bit hard to get one's hands on, and I read it in another internet forum.).

The Bush Regime is absolutely tragic. I remember the days when there were checks and balances, now the president does not need UN approval or even Congressional approval to incite war. I remember reading about rebellion being the sign of a healthy government (thomas jefferson) and about revolutionaries that helped build this country, now its "either you are with us or with them". I remember the first amendments guarantee to freedom of assembly, freedom of speech, freedom of the press, now cops in NYC are fencing in rightful demonstrators like animals and I witnessed cops harass someone on a subway platform because he was givin out flyers for the Peace March on 3/22 which had a legal permit, and also the news all have military/CIA officals "working" with the networks and, man, was I glad i was awake during the Propagnda units of my Visual Communications classes; since the beginning of 2002 i could build a case study on whats been on the airwaves and print! On that note, notice how you only see images of violence when the news discusses protests/demonstrations, and there were over 150,000 people at the rally yet the footage would try and yield as few as 50 protesters in a frame by utilizing low angles,am i wrong? notice how you dont see any firing being done by US troops in war footage, careful attempts to convince the public that we are not overzealous in this occupying attempt. Saddam does not belong in power and i will be glad to see him leave, but neither does Bush. Both carry contempt for UN and international law, pose a threat to every nation's security, and possess threatening supplies of weapons of mass destruction inclduing agents of chemical and biological capacities. The actions of the Bush Regime solidify our removal from the international community, a community that we hold ourselves above and adhere to no law or authority but our own. We claim liberation of a country who's same people we detain and hold in dentention for days and months on whim of suspicion in Brooklyn as well as throughout the nation, we profile their houses of worship, and incite public fear of their culture. we claim no responsibility for funding both the taliban and saddam hussien's (donald rumsfeld was the us envoy to hussein under reagan) rise to power. we are pouring in double digit BILLIONS simply to pummel a nation the size of california, and add additoinal double digit BILLIONS to occupy, and add additional BILLIONS to rebuild, and add addtional BILLIONS to the future wars that are going to rsult when we attack either syria or Iran. yet, i remmebr when the Dow was around 11,000 and people talked about the stock market, now its taboo because no one is sure how much lower it can go. we do not realize that many of the anti-american islamic leaders abroad came to the united states during the sixties as scholars but were met with viscious racism and discrimination. and we do not understand why a whole (not whole, large portion, even that is an overstatment) generation of islamic youth are up in arms against western oppression, can you draw some conclusions as to what the real problem is? wage peace, not war, we are not a functional society at the moment and we will be engulfed by our own destructive ways. i apologize for misspellings or grammar it is rather late at night.