In correspondence, Suresh Krishnamoorthy proposes a powerful reason for agnosticism on how much William Bennett has lost. His argument is that statistics based on drawing colored balls from urns is fine, but that the world is full of surprises, of people thinking outside the box, and of apparently transparent situations which are full of mysteries and complexities. Could casino owners have decided that keeping William Bennett "close to even" would have been a force leading the Washington Virtuecrats to choose other targets than the casino industry? There are lots of other possibilities that we can think of...
The way I prefer to state this point comes from the Ancient Wisdom Literature of New York City: specifically, Guys and Dolls,--the passage in which Sky Masterson quotes the advice his father gave him:
Brad DeLong Posted by DeLong at May 8, 2003 09:30 AM | TrackBackSky: "My father said, 'Son. Someday a man is going to walk up to you with a sealed deck of cards fresh from the factory, and say, "I bet I can make the jack of spades jump out of this deck and squirt cider in your ear." Son, when you meet this man, do not take his bet. For as sure as the sun rises every morning, if you do take the bet, the jack of spades will jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear.'"
Sky: These dice ain't got no spots on 'em. They're blank!
Big Julie: Oh, I had the spots removed for good luck.
I love that musical!
Posted by: Hannibal on May 8, 2003 09:48 AMJust as a point of information-- Is there anyone, anywhere, who has ever stood up and said "Bill Bennett persuaded me to take the straight and moral path". Not likely. Truth to tell, if you actually ever found such a one, you should probably look for the cider in your ear...
Posted by: Matt on May 8, 2003 09:53 AMI vote for selective memory. Every gambler I know is either close to even or only talks about the big wins. Gambling is about hope for the future, not remorse for the past.
Furthermore, I agree with Clarence Page, isn't it about time that Bennett started preaching about the virtues of keeping your nose out of other people's business?
Posted by: bakho on May 8, 2003 10:00 AM"I love that musical!"
With the character Sky Masterson based on the real life Bat Masterson, who started out as the famous western gunman, ended up as a NYC celebrity sportswriter, and lived one of the great American lives along the way.
"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."
Bennett's performance might not have conformed to theory, but that's the way to bet.
Hannibal,
What's playing at the Roxy?
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov on May 8, 2003 10:18 AM
What's playing at the Roxy?
I'll tell you what's playing at the Roxy:
Anger Management.
From MSNBC, Joshua Green admits to Joe Scarborough that the net loss was @$1 mil not $8 mil as the article seemed to heavily imply and most other journalists and commentators have assumed. The question is, why weren't Green and Alter more clear about this in the articles they wrote?
SCARBOROUGH: OK, did he lose $8 million, though? He reported $8 million in losses, but is it minus $8 million?
GREEN: No, no, let's be real clear about that. No, no, let's be clear about that. That is net loss more than $1 million. These gambling records that we've got, they show losses, they show wins. He hit plenty of jackpots, $10,000, $15,000, $40,000, up to $80,000 jackpots. The problem is, is, he'd turn around and he would play them right back.
Posted by: Kevin H on May 8, 2003 11:56 AMFrom MSNBC, Joshua Green admits to Joe Scarborough that the net loss was @$1 mil not $8 mil as the article seemed to heavily imply and most other journalists and commentators have assumed. The question is, why weren't Green and Alter more clear about this in the articles they wrote?
SCARBOROUGH: OK, did he lose $8 million, though? He reported $8 million in losses, but is it minus $8 million?
GREEN: No, no, let's be real clear about that. No, no, let's be clear about that. That is net loss more than $1 million. These gambling records that we've got, they show losses, they show wins. He hit plenty of jackpots, $10,000, $15,000, $40,000, up to $80,000 jackpots. The problem is, is, he'd turn around and he would play them right back.
Posted by: Kevin H on May 8, 2003 11:57 AMAh, that's great. So by the same methodology they could have reported: "William Bennett has won $7 million gambling in casinos over the last ten years."
" 'OK, did he lose $8 million, though?' "
" No, no, let's be real clear about that."
Well, better late than never. ;-)
Ah, that's great. So by the same methodology they could have reported: "William Bennett has won $7 million gambling in casinos over the last ten years."
" 'OK, did he lose $8 million, though?' "
" No, no, let's be real clear about that."
Well, better late than never. ;-)
slight correction:
It was Nathan Detroit, not Sky, that noticed the absence of spots on Big Julie's dice.
slight correction:
It was Nathan Detroit, not Sky, that noticed the absence of spots on Big Julie's dice.
It's the nature of slots gambling to dampen the memory of losses and magnify the memory of gains. This is not accidental - casinos are exquisitely engineered to capitalize on flaws in human reasoning (it's no coincidence that all Vegas casinos have no clocks, no windows, serve free booze, have disorienting floor plans, and lots of flashing lights and discordant noises).
90% of the time, slots pay out nothing. Losing a quarter (or a hundred bucks, in Bennett's case) becomes part of the "background noise" of slots playing. It's the big wins, when a machine pays out at 300-1 and hundreds (or tens of thousands, in Bennett's case) of dollars drop into the coin tray with a clanking and a whooping and a flashing of lights, that stick out in your mind. So when you look back on your session, you remember the couple of big wins you scored, and feel pretty good - until you balance your books, and notice that you lost several hundred (or several hundred thousand) dollars.
Posted by: FMguru on May 8, 2003 03:21 PMNevada authorities take their gaming very seriously. Any casino caught favoring individuals, or having machines that do not pay what they advertise, is subject to losing their gaming license. And that, my friends, is a one way trip to Chapter 7.
Posted by: adam on May 8, 2003 03:56 PMOh, he only lost a million. No prob. I probably have that much in the couch cushions.
Posted by: zizka on May 8, 2003 06:56 PMsiliconretina, thanks for the clarification. It's been many years since I saw the musical. I really should break down and buy the DVD.
Posted by: Hannibal on May 8, 2003 10:04 PMYeah, of course miracles happen. If I walk up to someone and say, "I won the lottery." What are the odds that it is true? Well, no one knows me, or what reason I would have for saying that. I may have just actually won the lottery and now I am going through the city asking people the odds that I have hit the jackpot.
But, if you randomly select a lottery player, who has been playing a while, what are the odds that they have won? Millions to one.
And Bennett didn't go out, right after he had gotten extremely lucky, and say, "I break about even." He was found out, at what I assume is a random time in his gambling career, one in which the odds of breaking over time are more than extremely small.