September 01, 2003

Another Piece of Good Business-Cycle News

Still more good news on the global investment demand front:

Forbes.com: Global chip sales up 2.9 pct M/M in July - WSTS: AMSTERDAM, Sept 1 (Reuters) - Global semiconductor sales were $12.905 billion in July, rising 2.9 percent from the previous month and 10.5 percent versus July 2002, a global industry group said on Monday.

Sales in Japan jumped 4.8 percent from June, while sales in Asia Pacific were up 2.9 percent. In Europe they rose 2.3 percent and in Americas by one percent from June, the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group said.

Posted by DeLong at September 1, 2003 12:02 PM | TrackBack

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A more detailed view:

Silicon Strategies

July global chip sales up 2.9%, says EECABy Peter Clarke

Silicon Strategies

09/01/2003, 1:34 PM ET

BRUSSELS, Belgium -- Worldwide sales of semiconductors totaled $12.59 billion in July, up 2.9 percent from $12.54 billion in June 2003 and up 10.5 percent from July 2002, according to the European Electronic Component Manufacturers Association (EECA) and the European Semiconductor Industry Association (ESIA), which quoted numbers it attributed to the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization.

The WSTS figures, normally first disclosed each month by the U.S. Semiconductor Industry Association, are presented as a three-month moving average of monthly sales activity, and are constructed in that way to smooth variations due to companies' sales reporting calendars.

For the first seven months of the year the worldwide chip market grew 11.6 percent according to the figures. This is ahead of the SIA's figure for 2003 growth over 2002 of 10.1 percent but in-line with the industry group's optimism for the third quarter (see August 4 story).

The July numbers show that the recovery is still being driven by the eastern hemisphere with the America's region market falling on long-term comparisons although slightly up compared with June. The European market is up strongly in dollar terms but also down strongly in terms of the euro currency.

Japan, which recorded sales of $3.119 billion in July, was the fastest growing region -- 4.8 percent up on June and 17.2 percent compared with July 2002. Japan's year to date is up 24.5 percent on the same seven-month period in 2002.

Asia-Pacific, the largest region with July sales of $4.814 billion, grew 2.9 percent compared with June 2003 and 12.9 percent compared with July 2002. Asia-Pacific's year-to-date is showing 14.4 percent growth compared with the same period in 2002.

The Americas market in July 2003, at $2.506 billion, was up 1.0 percent on the previous month but down 3.5 percent compared with July 2002. The Americas region's year-to-date is running 5.7 percent down on the same period in 2002.

European Semiconductor sales in July 2003 amounted to $ 2.466 billion according to the WSTS numbers. This corresponds to a 14.4 percent increase compared to the same month last year. Year-to-date semiconductor sales increased by 13.0 percent compared to the same period last year. Monthly sequential growth was 2.3 percent, EECA said.

However, the exchange rate of the euro compared to the US dollar has a significant impact on the data at this time, EECA said.

Measured in euro, Europe's semiconductor sales in July were 2.136 billion euro, a decline of 5.1 percent versus the same month a year ago. On a year-to-date basis, Europe's semiconductor sales have decreased by 7.1 percent versus the same period last year. Monthly sequential growth in June was 0.9 percent.

http://www.siliconstrategies.com/article/showArticle.jhtml?articleId=14200171

Posted by: Pooh on September 1, 2003 12:30 PM

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Suppose GDP growth in Japan is finally rising nicely and the rise can be sustained. What will this tell us about the way Japan chose to handle an economic transition during the 90s? I have increasingly become interested in whether Japan used life-time employment and fiscal policy in a way that might allow economic renewal with the least amount of middle class stress. Japan may be more competitive than we have thought.

Posted by: anne on September 1, 2003 12:45 PM

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Mark Fiore has his clear and simple explanation for this business-cycle configuration.

http://www.markfiore.com/animation/jobless.html

Terrific - Matts

Posted by: jd on September 1, 2003 12:46 PM

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Anne,

Why would limiting middle class stress have anything to do with competitiveness? How will we be able to tell? How do we distribute credit for any success in competitiveness between the effects of domestic economic policy and yen manipulation?

Posted by: K Harris on September 2, 2003 05:19 AM

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Anne, I don't believe the percentage of the working population that ever actually enjoyed "life-time employment" in Japan was ever as great as you seem to believe. I want to say it was always less than 25 percent of the working population and it has been declining for decades. For the most part, lifetime employment was only provided by larger Japanese firms.

Whatever the case on participation rates, I think few who have studied life-time employment would suggest that it is generally conducive to increased efficiency. Takao Kato's chapter "The Recent Transformation of Participatory Employment Practices in Japan" in the report "Labor Markets and Firm Benefit Policies in Japan and the United States" gives a good review of the changes and history of Japanese employment. A quick Google turned up this piece which gives some background: http://www.mail-archive.com/fukuzawa@ucsd.edu/msg06032.html

Posted by: Stan on September 2, 2003 06:41 AM

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Another Google find: http://www.sanken.keio.ac.jp/~hayami/papers/keodp65.pdf

Posted by: Stan on September 2, 2003 06:54 AM

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I think so.

Posted by: phentermine on December 5, 2003 11:26 PM

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r u sure?

Posted by: casino on December 6, 2003 02:14 AM

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