September 13, 2003

Note: Yes, Budget Deficits Tend to Raise Interest Rates

Ammunition for the next time the White House starts lying about the likely effects of its economic policies:

Eschaton: "We must do all we can to keep the days of deficits in the past. Budget deficits force the Government to borrow money in the private capital markets. That borrowing competes with (1) borrowing by businesses that want to build factories and machines that make workers more productive and raise incomes, and (2) borrowing by families who hope to buy new homes, car, and other goods. The competition for funds tends to produce higher interest rates." From the White House produced Citizen's Guide to the Federal Budget, 2001.
(thanks to innerlooper)

Posted by DeLong at September 13, 2003 10:21 PM | TrackBack

Comments

They took those words out of the 2002 edition. The closest I could find on quick scan:

Deficits increase the Federal debt and, with it, the Government's obligation
to pay interest. The more it must pay in interest, the less it has available to
spend on education, defense, law enforcement, and other important services,
or the more it must collect in taxes. As recently as 1997, the Government
spent more than 15 percent of its budget to pay interest, in contrast to less
than 10 percent projected for 2002. The President’s budget will reduce these
interest payments dramatically in the next 10 years.
In the end, the surplus is a decision about our future. We can provide a solid
foundation for future generations, just as parents try to do within a family.
For a Nation, this means a strong economy and low interest rates and debt.
Alternatively, we can generate large deficits and debt for those who come
after us.

http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget/fy2002/pdf/guide.pdf

Posted by: richard on September 14, 2003 04:49 AM

http://w3.access.gpo.gov/usbudget/fy2002/pdf/guide.pdf

"The President’s budget will reduce these interest payments dramatically in the next 10 years. In the end, the surplus is a decision about our future. We can provide a solid foundation for future generations, just as parents try to do within a family. For a Nation, this means a strong economy and low interest rates and debt. Alternatively, we can generate large deficits and debt for those who come after us."

Please please do remember.

Posted by: anne on September 14, 2003 07:32 AM

The "crowding out" theory has been much discussed in the last 20 years, but the fact is that when budget deficits are high interest rates can be quite low (as they were from 2001-mid 2003), and when the government is close to surplus (as we were in 2000), interest rates can be relatively high. In reality, the level of economic activity and the anticipated inflation from same are far more important.

Posted by: Pat Curley on September 15, 2003 07:35 AM

What is a good source for finding out who actually buys our debt, i.e., foreign v. domestic?

Posted by: Eric Beacham on September 21, 2003 06:41 PM

What is a good source for finding out who actually buys our debt, i.e., foreign v. domestic? I'm interested in finding out to what extent the wealthy in this country benefit from the increased debt. Thanks.

Posted by: Eric Beacham on September 21, 2003 06:44 PM

What is a good source for finding out who actually buys our debt, i.e., foreign v. domestic? I'm interested in finding out to what extent the wealthy in this country benefit from the increased debt. Thanks.

Posted by: Eric Beacham on September 21, 2003 06:45 PM
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