January 08, 2004
A Well Deserved Prize

Steve Levitt wins the John Bates Clark medal. A very well-deserved award. The Economist writes about it: Economist.com | Economics focus: If you browse through the working papers circulated by the National Bureau of Economic Research (at www.nber.org) you will find that in 2003 alone Mr Levitt wrote or co-wrote seven. His topics included the effect of school choice on educational results; the causes and consequences of distinctively black names; the effect of legalised abortion on crime; how to test theories of discrimination using evidence from the television programme, "The Weakest Link"; the gap in test results between blacks and whites in the first two years of schooling; gambling and the National Football League; and teachers who cheat in appraisals of their students' performance. Among the work he has published in prestigious peer-reviewed journals are a series of papers on crime and punishment, drug-gang finance, penalty kicks in soccer, money and elections, drunken driving, and the effect of ideology as opposed to voter preferences on the policies supported by politicians. In 2002 the impeccably sober American Economic Review published a paper co-written by Mr Levitt on corruption and sumo wrestling. You get the idea.... Imaginative prospecting for data, together with...

Posted by DeLong at 07:36 PM

October 08, 2003
Nobel Prize Rumor du Jour

The rumor is that it is going to be Jagdish Bhagwati and Paul Krugman for work on international trade. Nope. Clive Granger and Robert Engle. Reuters reports: "U.S. economist Robert Engle and Britain's Clive Granger have won the 2003 Nobel economics prize for inventing models used to evaluate investment risk and study the relations between simultaneous economic phenomena. 'This year's Laureates devised new statistical methods for dealing with two key properties of many economic time series: time-varying volatility and non-stationarity,' the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said on Wednesday. The two men share the 10 million Swedish crown ($1.3 million) prize, which has been awarded since 1969. "Engle, born in 1942 in Syracuse in the state of New York, teaches at New York University and got the prize for improving methods of evaluating portfolio risk and asset pricing. 'Investors and financial institutions need forward-looking evaluation -- forecasts -- of volatility during the next day, week or year. Robert Engle formulated a model which allows such evaluations,' the Academy said. Granger, born in 1934 in Wales, is an emeritus professor at the University of California [at San Diego]. The academy said his work was used in studying links between wealth and...

Posted by DeLong at 10:40 AM

September 25, 2003
R.I.P. Franco Modigliani

I remember when I was a graduate student I would just sit back and listen to him think, and be amazed: WSJ.com - Economist, Nobel Laureate Franco Modigliani Dies at 85: Franco Modigliani, a Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor who won the Nobel Prize in economics for his work on how people save money for their old age, has died at 85.... "He was certainly one of the giants," said Bengt Holmstrom, head of the economics department at MIT. "The intensity was the hallmark of his style. It was hard to think about anybody else who was as passionate about economics." Mr. Modigliani, who was born in Italy and emigrated to the United States just days before the outbreak of World War II, won the Nobel in 1985 for theories on how people save and for his work on how to determine the market value of businesses......

Posted by DeLong at 07:58 PM

August 02, 2003
Steve Levitt

Nice New York Times Magazine piece about Steve Levitt: The Probability That a Real-Estate Agent Is Cheating You (and Other Riddles of Modern Life): While negotiating to buy old houses, he found that the seller's agent often encouraged him, albeit cagily, to underbid.... [T]he key, Levitt determined, lay in the fact that agents ''receive only a small share of the incremental profit when a house sells for a higher value''... an agent was simply looking to make a deal, any deal. So he would push homeowners to sell too fast and too cheap. Now if Levitt could only measure this effect.... Using data from more than 50,000 home sales in Cook County, Ill., [Levitt] compared the figures for homes owned by real-estate agents with those for homes for which they acted only as agents. The agents' homes stayed on the market about 10 days longer and sold for 2 percent more... You see, the real estate agent is not the agent of the seller, the real estate agent is the agent of the quick hassle-free deal....

Posted by DeLong at 07:10 PM

July 17, 2003
R.I.P. C.P. Kindleberger

Our old teacher Charlie Kindleberger is dead. From the Economist: A self-confessed "literary economist", Mr Kindleberger, a professor at MIT and the author of more than 30 books, was a critic of the growing reliance of the economics profession on mathematics and on what he regarded as over-narrow rational models of human behaviour. Only a few years ago, his work would have been praised more for its readability than its insights. But he lived to see his best-known book become essential reading on Wall Street and be cited approvingly by younger, more mathematically inclined academics. In "Manias, Panics and Crashes", Mr Kindleberger provided a comprehensive history of financial crises, stretching back to before the South Sea bubble. He argued, not wholly originally, that several common threads linked these different disasters over the centuries in almost all corners of the financial world. Manias, or bubbles, have typically occurred in the markets following unexpected good news, and so reflect progress of sorts. "New opportunities for profit are seized, and overdone." When this eventually dawns on investors, the financial system may experience distress and often panic. His book first appeared in 1978, when most economists who studied finance were in thrall to efficient-markets...

Posted by DeLong at 12:39 PM

May 08, 2003
Congratulations to Steve Levitt!!

The American Economic Association awards the John Bates Clark medal every second year to the outstanding economist under forty who has not previously received the award. This year's winner is Steve Levitt. 1947 Paul Samuelson 1949 Kenneth Boulding 1951 Milton Friedman 1953 ---- 1955 Jim Tobin 1957 Ken Arrow 1959 Larry Klein 1961 Bob Solow 1963 Hendrick Houthakker 1965 Zvi Griliches 1967 Gary Becker 1969 Marc Nerlove 1971 Dale Jorgenson 1973 Frank Fisher 1975 Dan McFadden 1977 Marty Feldstein 1979 Joe Stiglitz 1981 Michael Spence 1983 Jim Heckman 1985 Jerry Hausman 1987 Sandy Grossman 1989 David Kreps 1991 Paul Krugman 1993 Larry Summers 1995 David Card 1997 Kevin Murphy 1999 Andrei Shleifer 2001 Matt Rabin 2003 Steve Levitt Some lean left. Some lean right. Some are aggressive. Some are thoughtful. Some are nice. Some are not-so-nice. Some are easy going. Some believe that to allow any error to go uncorrected is to encourage intellectual immorality. However, the fact that the award is a near-consensus award made by the AEA's executive committee means that those who receive it share one important characteristic--brilliance and incredible industry--no, two characteristics--brilliance, incredible industry, and the luck to be working in a fashionable subfield in economics--no,...

Posted by DeLong at 08:10 PM

May 07, 2003
Notes: Alexander Gerschenkron

Recommended by Rebecca Hellerstein... Nicholas Dawidoff (2002), The Fly Swatter: How My Grandfather Made His Way in the World (New York: Pantheon: 0375400273). Alexander Gerschenkron p. 10: ... someone who was going to grow up to be a person of true principle would get that way by proving his loyalty to small things, like the Boston Red Sox. I was cautioned never to blame the umpire for the many disappointments suffered by the Red Sox. My grandfather wanted me to feel that a person creates his own luck. Although he accredited fate, felt that fate--like God--was immutable, he also seemed to find it oddly beside the point and believed that a man stood a better chance in life if he ran out every routine ground ball to second base. "Nicky boy, you never know," was one of his prized phrases... p. 34: ... To a very real degree, Shura was raised on an ecumenical creed with tenets best expressed by Pushkin in his poem "I Built a Monument Not Made by Hands"--the last verse in particular: "Long will be remembered by the nation That of the good in men's hearts I did speak-- That I praised freedom in this age...

Posted by DeLong at 07:39 PM

April 23, 2003
Alexander Gerschenkron on Criticism

From The Fly-Swatter. I need to have this printed up on cards and handed out: Alexander Gerschenkron: Let me have your criticism, general and particular, and let me have it promptly.... Criticisms are to be submitted in the form "I suggest the following change" never in the form: "This does not make sense" or similar.....

Posted by DeLong at 08:46 PM

March 12, 2003
Mickey Kaus Is Puzzled

Mickey Kaus is puzzled: Don't Rush Me VI - Time for the grand gesture? By Mickey Kaus: About What Me Worry? I believe whatever Paul Krugman tells me, of course -- he's going to win the Nobel Prize, not me -- but I'm confused. It seems like only two months ago he had me terrified that inflation was going to go down so low it would plunge into negative territory, as in Japan. Now, after reading today's column, I'm worried that the government will decide to "inflate away debt" and "interest rates will soar." ... In other words[u]nless we slide into Japanese-style deflation, there are much higher interest rates in our future.What I don't understand -- and I recognize I may be missing something -- is why we can't end up somewhere in between inflation so low that it's a crisis and inflation so high that it's a crisis. In other words, not in a crisis! If I'm wondering about this, I bet so are many other Krugman readers. Explanation, please! ... Mickey Kaus is puzzled because he doesn't get the fact that that the two different problems that worry Krugman (and me!) operate at different time scales. One--possible deflation--is a...

Posted by DeLong at 07:30 AM

March 01, 2003
Cranks and Charlatans

Our Australian Cousin John Quiggin is bemused as he watches the cranks and charlatans attack CEA-Chair designate Greg Mankiw: John Quiggin: Jason Soon points to this piece of silliness by Stephen Moore of the National Review. Moore doesn't like Greg Mankiw because he once wrote that Reagan-era supply-side economists were "charlatans and cranks".... I'll just concentrate on Moore's proposed alternatives [to Mankiw]. He writes The good news is there are a multitude of brilliant supply-side academics who would be superb chief economists at the White House. I am thinking of talented people like Brian Wesbury of Chicago, Richard Vedder of Ohio University, and David Malpass of Bear Stearns. It seemed a bit odd to describe someone working on Wall Street as an academic, but of course lots of academics have been lured there in recent years. And while I'd never heard of any of these guys, Chicago is one of the top economics departments in the US (or the world, for that matter) and Ohio State is certainly respectable. But why not say "University of Chicago" and "Ohio State University." A short Google search reveals all. Not only is David Malpass not an academic, he doesn't hold an economics qualification...

Posted by DeLong at 08:10 AM

February 11, 2003
David Hume Gives Adam Smith Some Bad News

David Hume gives Adam Smith the bad news about the reception of Smith's first book, the Theory of Moral Sentiments. From DAVID HUME   Lisle Street, Leicester Fields April 12, 1759 Dear Smith, I give you thanks for the agreeable present of your Theory [of Moral Sentiments]. Wedderburn and I made presents of our copie to such of our acquaintance as we thought good judges, and proper to spread the reputation of the book. I sent one to the Duke of Argyle, to Lord Lyttleton, Horace Walpole, Soames Jennyns, and Burke, an Irish gentleman, who wrote lately a very pretty treatise on the sublime. Millar desired my permission to send one in your name to Dr. Warburton. I have delayed writing to you until I could tell you something of the success of the book, and could prognosticate with some probability whether it should be finally damned to oblivion, or should be registered in the temple of immortality. Tough it has been published only a few weeks, I think there appear already such strong symptoms, that I can almost venture to fortell its fate. It is, in short, this-- But I have been interrupted in my letter by a foolish...

Posted by DeLong at 03:02 PM

September 13, 2002
Paul Krugman on the "Economic Rationale" for War Against Iraq

Perhaps the stupidest things written about what action should be taken in response to Iraq's flouting of U.N. resolutions on its armaments are Larry Kudlow's cry to invade Iraq to raise the Dow and John Podhoretz's cry to invade Iraq to elect more Republicans to Congress in November. Here Paul Krugman takes on the mostly-whispered claim that a war against Iraq would be "a good thing" for the American economy. Needless to say, policy should rest on whether Saddam Hussein is the successful object of containment policies--a cautious tyrannical madman--or is likely to develop and use weapons that will turn New York or Tel Aviv into abattoirs, not on its effect on the year-over-year growth rate of real GDP. Stocks and Bombs: ...World War II is a very poor model for the economic effects of a new war in the Persian Gulf. On balance, such a war is much more likely to depress than to stimulate our struggling economy. There is nothing magical about military spending — it provides no more economic stimulus than the same amount spent on, say, cleaning up toxic waste sites. The reason World War II accomplished what the New Deal could not was simply that...

Posted by DeLong at 11:00 AM

September 12, 2002
Ken Rogoff on the IMF

Ken Rogoff on the claim that IMF bailouts take the money of rich-country taxpayers, give it to the unworthy, and so create "moral hazard". (He also covers a host of other issues.) Economist.com: ...It would be hard to overstate the influence of the popular perception that IMF crisis loans are thinly disguised bail-outs, with the tab paid mainly by ordinary taxpayers in the industrialised world. The presumed need to limit such bail-outs, and their adverse long-term incentive effects, is a central element of virtually every important plan out there to improve the way the IMF does business. The challenge posed by the bail-out view is not simply lack of transparency—that IMF loans are really outright transfers and should be called such. No, the deeper and more troubling implication is the “IMF moral hazard” theory. Simply put, if lenders are confident they will ultimately be bailed out by heavily subsidised IMF loans, they will extend too much credit to emerging-market debtors at rates that do not reflect the true underlying risk. The result? Bigger and more frequent crises than if the IMF did not exist. Giving the IMF more resources, it is argued, exacerbates the crises it was designed to alleviate....

Posted by DeLong at 02:21 PM

September 08, 2002
Six Degrees of Paul Krugman

Peter Passell writes about his twelve favorite economics websites. From the Milken Review that he edits: paul krugman | www.wws.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/ | Unofficial site:www.pkarchive.org/ Everyone, it seems, either loves Paul Krugman, or loves to hate him. One reason is that he gets amazing exposure through his Op-Ed column in The New York Times. Another is that he writes better than any economist since Keynes. Yet a third is that he doesn’t suffer fools (or knaves) easily – which often makes his opinion pieces a gas to read. His own Web site contains a sampling of his work, including some striking analytic pieces. But his unofficial site, run by Krugman groupies, is a whole lot more complete, and a whole lot more fun. It includes a lot of material about Krugman as well as stuff by him. xavier sala-i-martin | www.columbia.edu/~xs23/home.html Some economists are smart. A few are funny. A very few, including Columbia University’s Xavier Sala-i-Martin are smart and funny. Who else, after all, would grace his home page with a picture of Miss Piggy in her pigs-in-space getup, and a pair of floating eyeballs that follow your cursor around the site? Check out the picture of his favorite supermodel. Or...

Posted by DeLong at 11:01 AM

Ball and Mankiw on the "Natural Rate" of Unemployment

Larry Ball and Greg Mankiw have a very nice paper on the unemployment rate at which inflation is stable--the so-called NAIRU. The most fascinating part of the paper deals with the question of why the U.S. NAIRU fell so far and so fast in the 1990s. Ball and Mankiw find that they lean toward the hypothesis that the NAIRU is actually closely linked to the trend rate of productivity growth. The NAIRU in Theory and Practice: NAIRU stands for the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment. It is beyond dispute that this acronym is an ugly addition to the English language. There are, however, two issues that fail to command consensus among economists, which we address in this essay. The first issue is whether the concept of NAIRU is a useful piece of business cycle theory. We believe it is, and we begin this paper by attempting to explain why. In our view, the NAIRU is approximately a synonym for the natural rate of unemployment. This concept follows naturally from any theory that says that changes in monetary policy, and aggregate demand more generally, push inflation and unemployment in opposite directions in the short run. Once this short-run tradeoff is admitted,...

Posted by DeLong at 08:35 AM

September 06, 2002
American Labor Productivity Growth Trends

Labor Productivity Growth Trends Bill Nordhaus just gave a paper on U.S. productivity growth. One problem with the subject is that the year-to-year data are so noisy: errors in measuring output this year, errors in measuring output last year, errors in measuring hours worked this year, and errors in measuring hours worked last year all disturb the numbers reported for any given year. As a result, such papers almost always divide the time period up into a few chunks--1977-1989; 1989-1995; 1995-2001--and simply compare averages over those chunks. But the time series is considerably richer. So while Bill was talking, I found myself (a) taking the annual data, (b) adjusting productivity growth for the business cycle (for productivity growth jumps by 0.39 percent for each percentage point increase in this year's unemployment rate, and falls by 0.77 percent for each percentage point increase in last year's unemployment rate), and (c) taking a centered five-year moving average (using our current forecasts for 2002, and taking a truncated four-year not-centered moving average for 2001). The resulting series--the "actual" and the "trend"--are plotted as the green and the red line in the figure below: As a measure of the underlying pace of potential economic...

Posted by DeLong at 05:28 PM

September 03, 2002
In the Shadow of the Grand Tetons

Richard Berner from Morgan Stanley gives his take on the conversation at last weekend's Federal Reserve Jackson Hole symposium (sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City). From my perspective, the strangest and most worrisome thing about his report of the conversation is the "European" belief that interest rates have to stay high to promote the "liquidation" of potentially bankrupt enterprises. This is not a strong current of thought in America (save, perhaps, for the pages of the New Republic): ...Few U.S. monetary policymakers fret that low interest rates will forestall corporate downsizing, because they believe that U.S. financial markets are appropriately denying capital to those sectors where gluts are biggest, or giving it to new management who will clean house. On the contrary, some officials worry that Corporate America is hesitant to hire. So while they are guardedly optimistic, they seemed more open-minded about the need for additional stimulus than recent press commentary had suggested. All agreed that the U.S. economy's resilience in the face of financial shocks was comforting, but no guarantee that it would persist.... With oil prices meaningfully higher than we forecast, I share their concern that fourth-quarter growth could zigzag back toward 2%. Such...

Posted by DeLong at 12:39 PM

July 28, 2002
Rudi Dornbusch Is Dead at 60

When I was in graduate school, Rudi Dornbusch was one of four macroeconomists who had bet their reputation on a theory-based prediction of what the future would hold, and had been right. Milton Friedman and Ned Phelps had bet that the low unemployment-low inflation prosperity of the 1960s was ephemeral, and they were right. Bob Shiller had bet that stock market indices would follow not a random walk but instead exhibit substantial mean reversion in the long run, and subsequent events have proved him right. Rudi Dornbusch had bet--back in the 1970s--that floating exchange rates would turn out to be extraordinarily volatile animals, and he turned out to be right. Not only was he a brilliant thinker with a deep well of knowledge about the world and a tremendous concern for how to make the world a better place, but whenever we graduate student types saw Rudi, it was immediately apparent to us just how much fun he was having being an economist. Rudiger Dornbusch, Outspoken Economist, Dies at 60 A seminal paper that Dr. Dornbusch published in 1976, a year after he joined the M.I.T. faculty, solved a puzzle. Floating currencies should adjust gradually to one another, economists thought....

Posted by DeLong at 02:10 PM

July 08, 2002
Emmanuel Saez Has Evidence That Supply-Side Effects Are Not Large

One of the nicest things to happen to us here in Berkeley's Economics Department this year was our successfully persuading Emmanuel Saez that he wants to move from Harvard to Berkeley. Here Emmanuel looks at the number of people found at the "kinks" in the tax code. If supply-side effects are large, then lots of people who would otherwise work more (and be in the higher bracket) will decide to quit when their forecasted income reaches the point at which the marginal tax rate jumps up. So Emmanuel looks for kinks, and finds less evidence of them than I would have thought (save for those reporting lots of self-employment income, but that's another taxp policy story). It's simple. It's ingenious. It's well-executed. It's convincing. All in all, very nice to see. Emmanuel Saez (2002), " "Do Taxpayers Bunch at Kink Points?"" (Cambridge: Harvard University xerox). Abstract: This paper uses individual tax returns micro data from 1960 to 1997 to analyze whether taxpayers bunch at the kink points of the U.S. income tax schedule generated by jumps in marginal tax rates. Clear evidence of bunching is found only at the threshold of the first tax bracket where tax liability starts. Evidence...

Posted by DeLong at 09:18 AM

July 07, 2002
More Thoughts on Stiglitz's Globalization and Its Discontents

So I reread Globalization and Its Discontents, and I am more puzzled than ever. I cannot figure out what is going on inside Stiglitz's head. Part of it I think I have figured out. The repeated changes of position--"No! You should not have imposed any conditions on Suharto but lent freely respecting Indonesia's national sovereignty!" "No! You should not have loaned anything to Suharto at all!" "No! You should have loaned to Suharto, and encouraged capital to flow into Indonesia! And been very careful of his face! The longer Suharto stayed in power, the more order defeats chaos, and the better for Indonesia!" "No! Corrupt kleptocrats harm their countries! Clinton and Camdessus should have warned industrial-core companies against investing in Indonesia!" These repeated changes of position tell me that Stiglitz's main complaint against Summers, Fischer, and all is that they were sitting in the control seat where he wanted to be. He wanted to be the one making the decisions about when to lend in hope and when lending would be hopeless, when the current leader is the best that can be expected and when the best option is to cut off all economic contact and hope the current leader...

Posted by DeLong at 09:45 PM

Why the Decline in Health Insurance Coverage?

The continued decline in the share of Americans with health insurance coverage places additional stress on our health care financing system. Sometimes those without health insurance get no or get substandard treatment. Sometimes those without health insurance get adequate or excellent-quality catastrophic treatment--but the treatment is paid for by somebody else. Such cost-shifting further increases the cost of insurance, and reduces coverage. The fear is that at some point large chunks of the financing system will enter an adverse-selection death-spiral as each wave of price increases generates a large reduction in the pool of those paying for insurance and a further wave of price increases. And the derangement of the health-care financing system leads to a significant deterioriation in the quality of care provided. But, fortunately, we aren't there yet. However, we are getting closer. Here David Cutler tracks the decline in health insurance coverage in the 1990s. Employee Costs and the Decline in Health Insurance Coverage David M. Cutler NBER Working Paper No.w9036 Issued in July 2002 ---- Abstract...

Posted by DeLong at 07:51 PM

Before Paul Krugman Leaves for His Vacation...

Before Paul Krugman leaves for his vacation, he takes one more shot at George W. Bush. Between the two options Krugman gives us--Bush knew about and benefited from Harken's accounting frauds, and Bush was just a very negligent and disconnected director--I think the second is by far the most probable. Succeeding in Business ...the ploy works as follows: corporate insiders create a front organization that seems independent but is really under their control. This front buys some of the firm's assets at unrealistically high prices, creating a phantom profit that inflates the stock price, allowing the executives to cash in their stock. That's exactly what happened at Harken. A group of insiders, using money borrowed from Harken itself, paid an exorbitant price for a Harken subsidiary, Aloha Petroleum. That created a $10 million phantom profit, which hid three-quarters of the company's losses in 1989. White House aides have played down the significance of this maneuver, saying $10 million isn't much, compared with recent scandals. Indeed, it's a small fraction of the apparent profits Halliburton created through a sudden change in accounting procedures during Dick Cheney's tenure as chief executive. But for Harken's stock price -- and hence for Mr. Bush's...

Posted by DeLong at 03:36 PM

July 02, 2002
IMF Chief Economist Ken Rogoff Unloads Both Barrels in the Direction of Joe Stiglitz

IMF chief economist Ken Rogoff unloads both barrels in the direction of Joe Stiglitz. The "nut" paragraphs are below. I think that, analytically, Rogoff has the better of the particular point he chooses for his argument. Following what appear to be Stiglitz's prescriptions--lend more with fewer conditions and have the government print more money to keep interest rates low--seems that it would have been overwhelmingly likely, in all the cases I know well, to end in hyperinflation or in a much larger-scale financial crisis as the falling value of the currency eliminated every firm's and bank's ability to repay its hard-currency debt and sent the entire country's financial and industrial system into bankruptcy. Stiglitz would have to argue that universal bankruptcy is not that bad: that legal deals would have been quickly struck to write down debts and get the flow of financial intermediation going again. I'm not that optimistic about what happens once the lawyers enter the picture. An Open Letter to Joseph Stiglitz, by Kenneth Rogoff, Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, IMF. Let's look at Stiglitzian prescriptions for helping a distressed emerging market debtor, the ideas you put forth as superior to existing practice. Governments...

Posted by DeLong at 06:32 PM

November 10, 1999
How We Might Be Able to Do a Better Job of Teaching Macroeconomics

Macroeconomics Textbook Manifesto There is an apocryphal rule about new textbooks: they can only have 15% new material. A successful new textbook must be different enough from the old standards to give professors an incentive to switch, but must to similar enough to the old standards to keep the process of switching from requiring professors to throw away all their old lecture notes and completely redesign their courses. This is a neat trick. It makes intellectual progress--at least intellectual progress in undergraduate instruction--nearly impossible. Nevertheless, I believe that I can accomplish it. I think that I can greatly slim down "legacy" topics that are now included largely for intellectual-historical reasons (and that cause difficulty and confusion in teaching). I also think that I can make significant expositional improvements in several areas. Thus I think I can wind up with a shorter book that teaches students more material of interest and remains similar enough to past macroeconomics textbooks to be generally acceptable......

Posted by DeLong at 03:56 PM

August 01, 1990
J. Bradford DeLong (1990), "`Liquidation' Cycles: Old-Fashioned Real Business Cycle Theory and the Great Depression" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics).

J. Bradford DeLong (1990), "`Liquidation' Cycles: Old-Fashioned Real Business Cycle Theory and the Great Depression" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics)....

Posted by DeLong at 03:15 PM

June 01, 1990
J. Bradford DeLong, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann (1990), "Positive-Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance 45: 2 (June), pp. 374-397.

J. Bradford DeLong, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann (1990), "Positive-Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance 45: 2 (June), pp. 374-397....

Posted by DeLong at 03:12 PM

Robert B. Barsky and J. Bradford DeLong (1990), "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Economic History 50: 2 (June), pp. 1-17.

Robert B. Barsky and J. Bradford DeLong (1990), "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Economic History 50: 2 (June), pp. 1-17....

Posted by DeLong at 03:10 PM

January 01, 1990
J. Bradford DeLong (1990), "In Defense of Henry Simons' Credentials as a Classical Liberal," Cato Journal 9: 1 (Winter), pp. 105-122.

J. Bradford DeLong (1990), "In Defense of Henry Simons' Credentials as a Classical Liberal," Cato Journal 9: 1 (Winter), pp. 105-122....

Posted by DeLong at 03:07 PM

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1990), "Price Level `Flexibility' and the Coming of the New Deal: A Response to Sumner," Cato Journal 9: 1 (Winter), pp. 729-735.

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1990), "Price Level `Flexibility' and the Coming of the New Deal: A Response to Sumner," Cato Journal 9: 1 (Winter), pp. 729-735....

Posted by DeLong at 03:04 PM

September 01, 1989
J. Bradford DeLong (1989), "Facets of Interwar Unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics 49:3 (September), pp. 800-802.

J. Bradford DeLong (1989), "Facets of Interwar Unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics 49:3 (September), pp. 800-802....

Posted by DeLong at 02:02 PM

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers, "On the Existence and Interpretation of a `Unit Root' in U.S. Real GDP" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics, 1989).

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1989), "On the Existence and Interpretation of a `Unit Root' in U.S. Real GDP" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics)....

Posted by DeLong at 01:51 PM

July 01, 1989
J. Bradford DeLong, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann (1989), "The Size and Incidence of Losses from Noise Trading," Journal of Finance 44: 3 (July), pp. 681-696.

J. Bradford DeLong, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann (1989), "The Size and Incidence of Losses from Noise Trading," Journal of Finance 44: 3 (July), pp. 681-696....

Posted by DeLong at 12:21 PM

December 01, 1988
J. Bradford DeLong (1988), "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review 78: 5 (December), pp. 1138-1154.

J. Bradford DeLong (1988), "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review 78: 5 (December), pp. 1138-1154. JSTOR....

Posted by DeLong at 11:51 AM

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?" American Economic Review 76: 5 (December), pp. 1031-1044.

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?" American Economic Review 76: 5 (December), pp. 1031-1044....

Posted by DeLong at 08:49 AM

September 01, 1988
J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1988), "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Matter?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1988: 2 (Fall), pp. 433-480.

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1988), "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Matter?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1988: 2 (Fall), pp. 433-480....

Posted by DeLong at 11:48 AM

September 01, 1987
J. Bradford DeLong (1987), "Review of N.F.R. Crafts, British Economic Growth during the Industrial Revolution," Journal of Economic History 47:3 (September), pp. 790-792.

J. Bradford DeLong (1987), "Review of N.F.R. Crafts, British Economic Growth during the Industrial Revolution," Journal of Economic History 47:3 (September), pp. 790-792....

Posted by DeLong at 11:39 AM

J. Bradford DeLong (1987), "Review of Bernard Elbaum and William Lazonick, The Decline of the British Economy," Journal of Economic History 47:3 (September), pp. 792-795.

J. Bradford DeLong (1987), "Review of Bernard Elbaum and William Lazonick, The Decline of the British Economy," Journal of Economic History 47:3 (September), pp. 792-795....

Posted by DeLong at 11:37 AM

July 01, 1986
J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research), pp. 679-719.

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research), pp. 679-719....

Posted by DeLong at 08:11 AM

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "A Comment on John Taylor's `Improvements in Macroeconomic Stability: The Role of Wages and Prices'," in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research), pp. 667-675.

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "A Comment on John Taylor's `Improvements in Macroeconomic Stability: The Role of Wages and Prices'," in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research), pp. 667-675....

Posted by DeLong at 08:08 AM

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "Are Business Cycles Symmetrical?" in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research), pp. 166-178.

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1986), "Are Business Cycles Symmetrical?" in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research), pp. 166-178....

Posted by DeLong at 08:04 AM