June 19, 2002
A Nice Letter on Why Social Security Privatization Is Oversold: Future Stock Returns Are Likely to Be Low

Dean Baker has a nice letter on why Bush administration calculations of the potential benefits and costs of partial Social Security privatization are grossly overoptimistic: "...there is reason to believe that stock returns will not reach their past levels... the price to earnings ratio in the stock market is over 24[1] -- far above its historic average of 14.5 -- and the 1.6 percent rate of real profit growth (measured against the CPI) assumed by the Social Security trustees, is approximately half of its historic rate of 3.5 percent. These two facts make it almost impossible that real stock returns will... reach the 6.0 percent level that is the central assumption in the actuary office's analysis..."

Posted by DeLong at 01:25 PM

June 11, 2002
For a Serious Look at "Welfare Reform"

There are lots of unserious takes on "welfare reform" floating out there in America's political discourse. But if you actually want to learn something about what has and has not happened, Becky Blank is your woman... Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States Evaluating Welfare Reform in the United States Rebecca M. BlankNBER Working Paper No.w8983Issued in June 2002 ---- Abstract...

Posted by DeLong at 11:14 AM

April 15, 2002
April 15: Tax Day

Of course, if you can find someone else willing to pay my share, so that I can keep my $91,000, have 'em give me a call...

Posted by DeLong at 03:49 PM