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I see those numbers as indicating stagnation. They're not atrocious, just not good. The increase in the number in poverty in concerning as is the failure for real wage growth. But that's been talked about quite a bit over the past six months or so - the difference between productivity and earnings growth as compared to wage growth.

People are always shocked when the poverty level is explained to them. Less than $10,000 for a single. That's pretty poor.

This report adds credence to the two Americas theme that has been stressed by Senator Edwards. Would I be cynical to wonder why the Bush administration released this report a month or so before its traditional release date - late September?

http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_econindicators_income20040826

It should be noted that these income, poverty, and health insurance results over the past year occurred in the second year of an economic expansion, with the nation's gross domestic product up 3% and productivity growth—a supposed determinant of the living standards of working families—up especially strongly, at 4.5%. As today's report shows, clearly the benefits of this growth have failed to reach middle- and lower-income families.

two letters:

To the Editor:

According to the Census Bureau, the number of Americans living in poverty increased by 1.3 million last year, while the ranks of the uninsured swelled by 1.4 million. This the third straight annual increase for both categories.

The rise was more dramatic for children. There were 12.9 million living in poverty last year, or 17.6 percent of the under-18 population. That was an increase of about 800,000 from 2002.

Can someone please ask George Bush to clarify: is this No Child Left Behind, or Compassionate Conservativism?

Sincerely,
Anne Green
Pittsburgh, PA

To the Editor:

We are now about 7 million jobs shy of the number President Bush predicted in the 2002 Economic Report of the President, submitted months after the 9/11 attack. (He predicted a gain of 6 million new jobs, versus a loss of more than 1 million.) And just to repeat -- after 8 years of a decline in the rate of poverty, we now have had 3 years of increases under Bush. As the Associated Press reported yesterday, "the number of Americans living in poverty increased by 1.3 million last year, while the ranks of the uninsured swelled by 1.4 million." Now, in this, the richest country in the world, nearly 1 in 5 children now live in poverty. A case could easily be made that supporting Bush's policy is child abuse on a massive scale.

Sincerely,
Matt Ball
Pittsburgh, PA

Sent to local papers via:

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http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Greenspan.html?hp

Alan Greenspan Issues Warning on Retirement Benefits
By Associated Press

JACKSON, Wyo. - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said Friday that the country will face ``abrupt and painful'' choices if Congress does not move quickly to trim the Social Security and Medicare benefits that have been promised to the baby boom generation.

Returning to a politically explosive issue that he has addressed a number of times this year, Greenspan said that it was wrong for the government to hold out the promise of more retirement benefits than it is capable of providing.

He said this issue was particularly critical given the impending retirement of 77 million baby boomers born in the two decades after World War II.

``As a nation, we owe it to our retirees to promise only the benefits that can be delivered,''

Matt,

Bush had every reason to predict a reasonable pace of job growth. The economy had come out of recession, the September 11 attacks seemed not to have brought about another recession, and traditionally, job growth after a recession is quite strong. Then, came the news that we were on the path to war. Suddenly, the economy turned sour again, without actually dropping into recession.

So when Bush is criticized on the one hand for engaging in unjustified, preemptive war and on the other hand for not fostering adequate job growth, a serious error is being made. Unjustified, preemptive war and inadequate job growth are on the same hand.

Often, productivity growth is blamed for weak employment growth, but that isn't the whole story. More rapid output growth could have lifted employment, despite rapid productivity gains. Sit any of Greenspan's speeches from the period under a hot light and interogate it. He said it over and over again - geopolitical risk was the stifling investment and hiring. Risk indicators rose from their post-9/11 levels as it became clear that we would go to war with Iraq. The geopolitical risk he was talking about was not all terrorism risk. War risk slowed the economy. To the extent the war was illegitimate, Bush is to blame for the rise in poverty in 2003, the missing jobs in the economy and the part of the dificit that is attributable to war and slow growth (the only parts of the deficit Bush will acknowledge).

(By the way, Matt, pardon me for using your post as the opportunity to get that off my chest. I feel better now.)

kharris, dunno exactly why you think Bush had a reason. Instead of doing what the federal government had done during past downturns -- aid to the states, tax breaks to the bottom half who would actually spend it, expanded unemployment benefits -- Bush pursued that absolute worst policy for job creation -- tax breaks for the wealthiest and tax breaks for unearned income.

As a relative measure of economic progress these figures are certainly upsetting.

But as an absolute measure I think income is the wrong thing to measure in determining poverty. We should measure the amount spent on the person.

From personal experience, by this statistic I would have been recorded as living in poverty for 2 of the last 4 years. But anyone watching my life style would have been hard pressed to consider me impoverished (also I incured no debt in this time, and have no trust fund like source of income).

Also based on the American income standard of poverty, I wonder what poverty levels in most of the developed world would be.

KHarris

Quite an interesting surmise. Paul Krugman has argued in a similar vein. Given the sluggish recovery in business investment, I am quite surprised there was no stronger fiscal stimulus package extending through this year.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/27/opinion/27krugman.html

America's Failing Health
By PAUL KRUGMAN

Working Americans have two great concerns: the growing difficulty of getting health insurance, and the continuing difficulty they have in finding jobs. These concerns may have a common cause: soaring insurance premiums.

In most advanced countries, the government provides everyone with health insurance. In America, however, the government offers insurance only if you're elderly (Medicare) or poor (Medicaid). Otherwise, you're expected to get private health insurance, usually through your job. But insurance premiums are exploding, and the system of employment-linked insurance is falling apart.

Some employers have dropped their health plans. Others have maintained benefits for current workers, but are finding ways to avoid paying benefits to new hires - for example, by using temporary workers. And some businesses, while continuing to provide health benefits, are refusing to hire more workers.

In other words, rising health care costs aren't just causing a rapid rise in the ranks of the uninsured (confirmed by yesterday's Census Bureau report); they're also, because of their link to employment, a major reason why this economic recovery has generated fewer jobs than any previous economic expansion.

Matt,

I was just being ornery. If Bush had considered what the economy was doing prior to war rearing its head, he would have had reason to hope for better growth than he got. He, above anyone else, had reason to know that we were going to war. Honesty with himself and us would have meant a much lower estimate of job growth. He either didn't want to believe that his little war could slow growth, or he didn't want to admit to the inevitability of war (as we hear was the case in not putting together a post-war plan for Iraq). Yes, indeedy, Bush could have changed the outcome for employment, poverty and growth, had he aimed straight at fostering job growth through government hiring (mostly at the state and local level) and at fostering demand growth by cutting payroll taxes for those at middle and lower incomes.

KHarris

"Bush could have changed the outcome for employment, poverty and growth, had he aimed straight at fostering job growth through government hiring (mostly at the state and local level) and at fostering demand growth by cutting payroll taxes for those at middle and lower incomes."

Nicely put.

Real median income is unchanged?! *Zero* Delta?!
Do you know the *odds* against that being true?

?A catastrophic decline in value of US$ against a basket of world currencies; the huge CPI runup in commodities, goods and services; final, fatal dead-cat-bounce in equities and bonds, 401K's at their greatest losses in decades, no real wage increases since Bush-Cheney stole office, and Brad re-publishes in toto a Census Bureau report that US median income is not just *not* growing, but is *exactly unchanged*, in all this chaos?

Or is it like 100 welfare wards in a room with Chairman Gates, their median income growing like gang-busters, all of them "median" billionaires?
(Yes I know .. I'm misusing "median" for effect.)

Now comes Greenspan, proving he's a paid stoodge for the Republicrat Liars. Forecast demographics show future US worker population base *growing*, not shrinking. If real median income unchanged, then SS Trust Fund will, perforce, continue to *grow*! There *IS NO SS CRISIS!* (unless the Republicrats continue deficit spending and cutting taxes further, allowing US corporations to default on their pension plans and forcing future workers to see a reverse income growth, so Republicrats can permanently lien our SS).

Big Business is using Greenspan and US Census to tell the Big Lie to every American, especially the Baby Boomers, *the first generation to pay into SS for their entire working lives*, that:
"Comrades, everything is beautiful. Your income is fine, ignore that sinking feeling. And oh, by the way, your pensions will be cut, ala United, GM and 100's of other US corporations reneging on their fiduciary responsibility to employees."

http://mwhodges.home.att.net/deficit-trusts.htm

The US Census Report and Greenspan's "testimony" is conspiracy to commit fraud and grand larceny!
In time of world war, a time when the hordes of working poor applying for relief have *grown by 40% since the beginning of the year*, these lies constitute treason against the American people.

Zero Delta?! Zero Delta??!! Zero Delta???!!!
The only zero is what we'll hold in our hands when we retire. ***What do we pay taxes for!!***

Trickle down economics:

drip
drip
drip
oops the drip dried up
too bad

That Alan Greenspan talks us into debt from surplus by supporting long term tax cuts for the most wealthy, then talks of cutting Social Security and Medicare when the debt problem become obvious, is intolerable.

My own personal opinion, but backed up by plenty of data I would be glad to share is that 9/11 and
its aftermath had little economic impact. It is being used as an excuse for other policy failures that are the real driving force behind the poor economic performance.

I will cite just one data series. Trend real retail sales growth has been about 6% since the economy bottomed in 2000. In 2001 it fell sharply below that trend line immediately after 9/11. But it more than made up for that drop by rebounding strongly above trend in Oct to a level 8.3% higher than in the prior December. In other words the impact of 9/11 on demand lasted less than one month. About the only economic data series I can find a significant long last ing economic impact of 9/11 in in revenue passanger miles -- the airline industry.

America's multi-national vampiroyal hot-money tax-free dividend tax-free estate upper-class are scrambling for their fiscal life boats, and assuring those of US still locked down below in wage-slavery and perpetual-mortgage steerage, that hey, everything is fine, the Titanic isn't sinking, and that wasn't the main hatchway caving in, and by the way, fellows, it's been nice to know 'ya. (apologies to Mr. Lightfoot)

It used to be assuring to focus on Bush-Cheney as the rift, the meters-long tear in the side of the American Ship of State, but this egregious concateny of lies, Executive and Congressional malfeasance, corporate book-cooking and media running-dog, leaves me with a sinking feeling.
Did someone shout "fire!" and we didn't hear it?

We're right where the Soviet Union was fifteen years ago, mired in Afghanistan, their economy collapsing, their government riddled with fraud.
When they tear down that wall on our southern border, the collapse of America will be complete.

So like, if the Soviet Union became Russia with it's former now sovereign states, will like, the United States become the District of Columbia, with it's fifty sovereign states, the handful of client territories and abandoned military bases?

Will future historians re-jigger the world maps to show the largest budget in the world was once squandered by a tiny country appelled "DC", now lying drowned somewhere along the Chappaquidick?

Is that median income unchanged in raw dollars or inflation adjusted?

David

Brads post begins ..."Real median household income remained unchanged..."

Real means the data is adjusted for inflation.

Well, well - Facts (and Reasons) #22 and #23 on my list of "101 Reasons Why I Can't Support George W. Bush" just appeared.

As concerned human beings (call us "liberals" if you want - I don't give a rat's ass what label Adrian or others want to put on us), let's start trying to convince the 7 or 8 percent of American voters who are still undecided that the FACTS lead to only one conclusion - Cheney / Bush must go. We're wasting our time anywhere else - neither the declared supporters of Kerry/Edwards nor those of Cheney/Bush are going to change their minds.

Here's a map that'll show you where the borders will lie, in a broken-up USA:

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

The northeast will form one nation, the southeast another, the rust belt a third, the mountain states a fourth, the southwest a fifth, and the pacific northwest a sixth.

"The number of people below the official poverty thresholds numbered 35.9 million in 2003, or 1.3 million more than in 2002, for a 2003 poverty rate of 12.5 percent. Although up from 2002, this rate is below average of 1980s and 1990s."

Which proves beyond all doubt the 1980's and 1990's bubble was a fraud benefitting wealthy investors at the expense of the worker class.

If, like, United Airlines announces they are cutting pensions, then, like doesn't that mean their productivity index just jumped way up?

That's a solid "buy"!

If, like, US Air eliminates their pilot pensions and pays their CEO's and accounting consultants huge bonuses to skeletonize the remainders, does that *increase* or *decrease* the productivity?

That's a "hold".

If, like, GM defaults on it's $8B or so pension fund, does that offset their huge losses in the rapidly melting-down transportation industry, and like, increase share values on Wall Street?

Subscribe to our insider analysis!

"Productivity" has become a meaningless index. They should rename it "reamtheworkersvity", or accurately and succinctly, "vultureactivity", reducing the carcass to bones and dung beetles.

Why even *mention* meager US productivity, when transnational investors can flee to Saudi/UAE company's profitability averaging +40% YOY? In gold and precious metals, up +33% YOY? In EU's and other prime world currencies, up +35% YOY?

Who is still buying US stocks anyway? American workers, through their 401K's and mutual funds. Productivity is just a ruse. All of US are being invested in a bankrupt economy and a malfeasant government that has promised, publicly, that we will get nothing in return. Not even the pension monies we paid in to the Federal Trust. Trust?

We obviously have the most creative accountants in the history of the world, so why can't the Fed hire some of them to dig our way out with bogus USC stats, then float a few ten trillion in GOB's to run our Defense budget bloat off of?

Maybe Chairman Gates will co-sign an IOU for the American workers? If the Fed promises to repay our *100% paid in* SS and quit deficit spending our estates, then we promise to continue working productively and continue to pay income taxes.

(And now they're talking a *flat income tax*!?)

And today Greenspan is renewing his call for cuts in Boomer Social Security Benefits. It is not dishonest to assert that this is either the Republican game plan, or something made inevitable by the tax cuts and the costs of gratuitous imperialism. Perhaps as a Boomer myself I am overly sensitive to this, but Why aren't the Democrats all over this?

Greenspan in 1983 - Boomers pay more into federal retirement insurance funds fund and that will take care of the demographic problem. (In other words, we partly pay our own way, while also paying for others, unlike previous beneficiaries, to make sure that benefits will be there when we retire.)

Greenspan in 2001 - The US government is on a frightening trajectory, destined to pay off its debt and begin acquiring private sector assets. This must be stopped.

Greenspan in 2004 - US workers are going to be in for an awful shock when they learn that the government doesn't have the financial resources to fund its retirement pledges.

To avoid a special place in the Hall of Dishonest Policymakers, Greenspan needs to connect these dots and admit that he was wrong. Problem is, it would be an admission that his prediction was wrong, that his fears were Randite, that his beloved tax cuts were not supportable.

KHarris

Perfect.

Sad Tosay-Don't laugh J.P. Morgan once bailed out the Federal Government.

I understand that these are income levels, but I wonder how would personal debt play into these. While I assume that these numbers do not indicate other state or federal benefits that lower incomes may avail themselves of (or even personal wealth(?)), I would imagine that the impact of having to meet debt obligations has the potential to erode these numbers even more.

kharris, Bob H and Hesai

To quote anne, "Perfect".

HHEC wrote: Income inequality showed no change between 2002 and 2003 when measured by the Gini index. The share of aggregate income received by the lowest household income quintile (20 percent of households) declined from 3.5 percent to 3.4 percent, while remaining unchanged for the other quintiles.

I call BS. After downloading the actual report, it says right there that the second quintile went from 8.8 to 8.7 percent, the fourth quintile from 23.3 to 23.4, and highest quintile from 49.7 to 49.8 percent. It's less than the margin of error for those quintiles, but obviously that 0.1 percent from the lowest is going somewhere, and it's pretty certainly not going to the second quintile.

Also, while I was reading the report anyway (what we call RTFA on Slashdot), I figured I'd spell out for my fellow readers just what "[r]eal median household income remained unchanged between 2002 and 2003 at $43,318" means. In 2002, median income was $43,381 in 2003 dollars (does this mean I can spend 2005 dollars right now, just like the government?), plus or minus $234 (also 2003). In 2003, it's $43,318 (2003 dollars, of course), plus or minus $309. Since they're closer than the 90% certainty margins of error, they consider the drop to be insignificant as far as broad reporting to the media goes.

How is the poverty level number calculated or arrived at?

If I'm stating what's obvious to everyone else, I'm sorry, but are these numbers even more misleading in some ways then people have indicated? I've read that the CPI does not reflect inflation as most people experience it (because of what's excluded, utilities, gas, etc.) and that state taxes, property taxes and health insurance premiums and/or co-pays have increased so much in the past few years that many people actually have much less actual (as opposed to what's available from credit cards)disposable income then they used to have?

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