Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog: New Donkey@DLC.org

August 27, 2004

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Bad Day for the Base:

Boy, if the President's re-election really does depend on an excited conservative base, today's news is not very helpful to The Cause. You got Dick Cheney dissing Bush's position on a gay marriage amendment, at considerable length, perhaps subtly undermining the Right's claim that Western Civilization hangs in the balance. You got Bill Frist, once on the conservative short list for the succession to Bush, co-authoring an op-ed on health care with Hillary Rodham Clinton. And you got conservative pundit and author of Bush's famous "Axis of Evil" sound-bite, David Frum, advising pro-choice, pro-gay-rights Mayor Rudy Guiliani on how to become the Republican presidential nominee in 2008 (sorry, no link here; it's in the subscription-only Wall Street Journal).

The Cheney statement appears to have taken culture-warriors by surprise. The Family Research Council's Tony Perkins (no relation to the star of "Psycho") was reduced to whining about the Vice President's lack of message discipline, which is rather disturbing given Cheney's stature as the administration's Great Big Grownup. And the Veep sure stepped all over the Republican Platform Committee's decision to enthusiastically endorse the idea, if not the ontological necessity, of a constitutional gay marriage ban.

I decided not to include today's other big story--the blue-ribbon panel report drawing a direct link between the Pentagon's poor post-war planning and the prisoner abuses at Al Ghraib--in the litany of base-deflating developments. That's because my unscientific sampling of rank-and-file conservative opinion, particularly in my own extended family, has convinced me that a fair number of people on the Right think torturing and humiliating prisoners is on balance not that bad an idea, so long as we don't let the womenfolk get involved.

No Plan B:

Noam Scheiber, author of The New Republic's "&c" blog, took notice of the same Ron Browstein piece on Bush's base-o-centric strategy that I highlighted yesterday. But while I cast cold water on the idea that BC04 could make up for its weakness among undecided voters by winning the turnout wars, Noam's take is that the GOPs attention to the base is defensive, aimed at dealing with conservative disgruntlement over administration policies. Either way, it's not a good sign for Bush.

But Scheiber also suggests that Brownstein is buying into some sort of devious GOP spin by taking seriously their talk of writing off swing voters. If that's the case, he says, "Then why'd the White House even bother with things like prescription drugs, immigration reform, and the Mars mission--things they knew had a high probability of pissing off conservatives?"

Well, Noam, the answer's simple: Karl Rove did have a swing voter strategy, but it has failed.

It had four prongs:

(1) Winning over married women with kids through the No Child Left Behind education reform initiative. Thanks to its poor implementation of NCLB, the White House has managed to anger anti-testing zealots on the left and local-control freaks on the right, without getting much credit from those who like the basic idea but think it's been bungled.

(2) Buying the votes of seniors with a Rx drug benefit. That's been an even bigger woofer. Seniors hate the new initiative, and won't even sign up for the least controversial part, the drug discount cards.

(3) Making gains with Latinos through a "guest worker" proposal. Best I can tell, the proposal hasn't moved a single Latino voter in the President's direction, though it did royally honk off the ever-present if quiescent xenophobic wing of the Republican Right. That's probably why you haven't heard anything about it lately.

(4) Cutting into the Democratic margin among Jews by conspicuously identifying the administration with the embattled Israeli government of Ariel Sharon. According to the one relevant poll of American Jews, released just last week, Bush is running no better with this constituency than he did in 2000--which is to say, horribly.

In other words, the Bushies may be resorting to a "conservative turnout" strategy because they don't have any other choice at this late date. Karl Rove, whom the President reportedly likes to call "the man with the plan," had a plan for swing voters, but it hasn't worked, and there's no Plan B.

Nasty As They Wanna Be:

In case you're wondering why the Bush-Cheney campaign has gotten so down-and-dirty, consider their options.

They can't crow too much about the administration's accomplishments, other than the absence, so far, of any further terrorist attacks on the U.S.

They don't want the President to be measured by the promises he made in 2000, such as "changing the tone in Washington," extending prosperity to the forgotten corners of America, or introducing humility into our foreign policy.

They sure as hell can't suggest that voters ask themselves if they are better off than they were four years ago.

And having staked his re-election campaign to an effort to get conservatives all whipped up into a hate frenzy, they can't abandon their habit of pandering to the Right by repositioning their guy towards the political center.

So: they're pretty much stuck with the strategy of pushing John Kerry out of the center by (1) claiming he's even more of an extremist than the incumbent, and (2) raising every conceivable doubt about Kerry's character and credibility. And that's the strategy they've very consistently pursued now for months.

There is, of course, a bit of an internal logical problem in claiming that Kerry is a godless, flag-hating, tofu-munching lefty who has no principles. But it's no more of a stretch than the standard Republican claim that the way to achieve fiscal responsibility is to run the largest possible budget deficits.

The Republican Convention will offer interesting evidence about exactly how negative the Bush-Cheney campaign intends to get, and the precise extent to which the GOP is willing to identify the President and Vice President of the United States with the defamation of John Kerry, as opposed to letting semi-anonymous thugs like the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth carry their dirty water. Four years ago in Philadelphia, puzzled delegates spent two full days listening to happy talk from every black, brown, and/or moderate figure the GOP could find to drag to the podium, before Dick Cheney finally gave the protein-starved assemblage their first taste of Clinton-hating red meat. They may let slip the dogs of war a bit earlier in New York.

Posted by DeLong at August 27, 2004 01:51 PM | TrackBack

Comments

I'll give a few thoughts, this time with numbers.

1. I agree that Rove's strategy has failed. He's tried to be the big vision president, with things like the missions to Mars, only to abandon some parts. We're likely to see a big vision, "the ownership society" next week, but that's going to essentially discuss tax-free savings accounts, which relates to tax cuts. And while he has tried to woo the middle, he's pissed off the right, which he's now trying to get back. The problem is that he appears to be alienating even more of the middle and even some of the base (i.e. stem cell research).

2. His poll numbers seem to be increasing, but my guess is it fits into one or both of these categories. His poll numbers are rising because it's close to the convention and because we haven't seen a lot of bad news front and center lately, or at least not as much as we are used to seeing. And there's the fact that Kerry has usually fit the come-from-behind profile: he will be tied or losing until the end, when he moves up and wins. He could be down all throughout the fall, only to surge at the end and take it.

3. If the election were held today, I would probably still give Kerry the edge, but not by much.

Posted by: Brian at August 27, 2004 02:05 PM

Yes, Brad, an enjoyable read and should be recommended all around.

Posted by: Dano at August 27, 2004 02:46 PM

It's going to be interesting to see how Rove tries to spin the latest stats on the poverty rate and the number of Americans without health insurance. Then again, it would be just like Rove to ignore these things completely, hoping against hope that by the time the convention rolls around, American voters will have forgotten all about it (and anyone who believes that the timing of the release of these data is coincidental should contact me regarding a lovely bridge I can sell you, with a choice location in Brooklyn, NY...)

Posted by: Uncle Jeffy at August 27, 2004 02:52 PM

It does appear to be an interesting blog. Though it is somewhat offputing that it features a link to the blog of a certain well-known cryptorepublican hack.

Posted by: Kaus Hackula at August 27, 2004 02:58 PM

Uncle Jeffy,

You raise an interesting question. My guess is that they will either ignore it completely or try some solemn acknowledgement, like Bush saying how bad he feels with Laura at his side.

If I had to guess, I'd say it's more likely that they'd ignore it completely. Why? I'd have to guess it's because of two reasons: the fact that the study was released on a Friday and might not gain that much traction and the fact that poor people don't vote in high numbers.

Posted by: Brian at August 27, 2004 03:05 PM

Hmm, I'm still waiting for the Spidlebot to weigh in.

Posted by: Barry Freed at August 27, 2004 04:04 PM

Cheney's statement in favor of states deciding the right to gay marriage (repeating his known stance on the matter) was so oddly timed that my first guess is that this is part of the plan for engineering his exit from the ticket. He can't use the health excuse, because that was too anticipated, and Bush can't do anything to make it look like he ever changes his mind (Bush only flip flops when he's sure that no one will report his earlier position). So getting into an ideological disagreement with the GOP platform ahead of the convention gives him an honorable, principled looking way out.

Anyway, I admit that's pretty paranoid, but it's what popped into my mind.

Posted by: Paul Callahan at August 27, 2004 04:09 PM

"how bad he feels with Laura by his side."

Cause and effect? Forget dropping Cheney, he's dropping Laura? ;)

Posted by: Linkmeister at August 27, 2004 04:14 PM

I disagree that the turnout strategy is one of necessity and not of choice. The very tepidness of those centrist initiatives shows how they were planned as token efforts to begin with. Yeah, let's go for centrist, Democrat-voting demographic X but without putting any real resources into it. It was Rove's vision from the very beginning to establish a rightwing monarchy that doesn't have to pander to the middle ground and that kills off all liberal initiatives without even a cursory investigation of their merits.

Posted by: ogmb at August 27, 2004 04:23 PM

Could it be that Cheney's comment anticipates his role in the upcoming convention? The lineup, after all, includes the shrub, the First Lady, Mrs. Cheney, McCain, Giuliani,and Miller-- "pastel" Republicans all (from a right-wing point of view). And since Cheney doesn't belong in a picture like this, perhaps his riff on gays and lesbians is just a cosmetic touch-up....For me, the true surprise is the absence of Powell: he must be sending a message to all and sundry.

Posted by: alabama at August 27, 2004 05:14 PM

The Internet is Everything, and it's Nothing.
I was reading an e-novel last night, sipping
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bunged up from our summer building project.

The e-novel was titled, "Trinidad Blue" by a
Canadian guy named Peter Torbay. Google will
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system and crash it into Valdez Oil Terminal.

The gang operated out of Azherbizhan, and was
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different than Osama bin Laden. Torbay wrote
his novel in 2000, and published April 2001.
The literary agents were considering it for a
book / movie contract right up to 9/11, when
a different form of intelligence took over.

Why mention this obscure .CA writer? Simple.
Everyone knew 9/11 was coming, just like we
all knew the Internet bubble would pop, some
of us clear back in 1997, when "Zapata" was
riding up $1 an hour, just an obscure record
company in NYC, with no more chance of making
a profit than of you wearing alligator skin.

"I don't want your stinking shoes," my bud's
and I would joke, investing in ZAP's runup,
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Only after the fact do cry-babies come out.

If Torbay sensed, others knew exactly what
Osama was planning and plotting. Bush knew,
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he repeatedly rebuffed attempts by his intel
officers to brief him in detail. 'Plausible
deniability' it's called, not wanting to know.
There should be an intel term for that, the
refusal of intelligence, refint? refusing to
know? Opposite of humint, human intelligence,
the marrow of any good intelligence network.

But marrow only makes soup. Pouring tax billion$
into gathering intelligence just doesn't get it.
Spawning multi-intelligence agencies, or having
them answer to an intelligence super-czar, is
not going to stop a single terrorist attack(s).

No intel ever foiled even a simple bus bombing,
or theft of "The Scream", using 'intelligence'.
There are no tea leaves, no chicken bones, no
runes of Kabal that will reveal our future.

US intel knew of Pearl Harbor. It happened
anyway. US intel ran countless spy probes
off the coasts of Viet Nam and North Korea,
yet failed to stop the Communist takeover
of one, and the spread of nuclear weapons
in the other. "Intelligence" is a charade!

So if the best spies in the world, Israeli's
or Russian's, can't prevent the bombing of two
passenger airplanes, if our CIA and FBI can't
prevent Locherbie, can't prevent 9/11 WTC, then
why in the *hell* are we forced to pay for it?!

Why would our best 'intelligence' vett Chalabi,
and send our kids into the meat-grinder, when
Executive was predicting a *two-day* war, and
peace and freedom for Iraq by November, 2003?
Don Rumsfeld thought he was buying GW II on
the cheap, all 'intelligence' bought him was
WW IV, and a growing mountain of body bags.

If The 9/11 Report tells us anything, if the
missing 26 pages that the Executive cut out
that tell the *real* intelligence behind 9/11,
of the Saudi bank accounts, and players behind
the scenes who shorted airline and insurance
stocks the week of 9/11 were known, then why
do we wring our hands over "bad intelligence"?

Q. Which leaves one final question. If the best
intelligence minds in the world can't see a
criminal or terrorist act in time to prevent it,
why is GWBush creating a domestic superagency?

A. To spy on US, America's People. Big Brother.
Our Supreme Soviet is go, it just arrived late.
An Executive not "of the people, by the people and for the people". It's gonna *eat* our people!

Read Torbay. His final passage has all the intel:
http://petertorbay.tripod.com/TrinidadTeaser.htm

"Without the will of heaven none is blest, none curst, I do maintain; nor doth the same house for ever tread the path of bliss; for one kind of fortune follows hard upon another...; To shun what fate decrees, is no wise permitted; none by cunning shall thrust it from him; but
he, who vain would do so, shall have unceasing trouble.” . . . . . . . . . . (Euripides)

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Posted by: Harry Possue at August 28, 2004 08:23 AM

"I agree that Rove's strategy has failed."

Ahem! Rove's job is to make Bush the Sock Puppet popular while the GOP wingnuts behind the curtain tear this country apart. Well, we've just seen a term that feels like a cheap horror movie stuck on fast-forward, and the party responsible for it is somehow ahead in the polls.

So could someone please explain to me how Rove has failed?

Posted by: Dragonchild at August 29, 2004 05:47 PM

As I understand it, Dragonchild, the issue concerns the trend of approval ratings over the past twelve months. Those particular numbers apparently challenge the notion that Rove has "made Bush popular". Even if he's made him more popular than he might otherwise be, the party's big-money patrons don't seen to find this very comforting.

Posted by: alabama at August 30, 2004 06:57 AM

Glad to see I'm not the only one who thinks Rove is overrated.

Posted by: fling93 at August 30, 2004 11:11 AM

None of this really matters. BushCo will win the election, using any and all means necessary. These "people" lie to the electorate constantly, and are never called on it. They dictate talking points to big media, basically muzzling any opportunity for dissent. Hell, even the gov't stats (economic and population numbers) are fair game for cosmetic manipulation. If the media doesn't hand GWB the election, then the eVoting Corps will. Failing that, there's always the Supreme Court, or at a last resort, a "terrorist attack" followed by martial law. I have heard it said before (this year) by people brighter than me: "wake up America, 'cause the FIX is IN."

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