Max Sawicky watches as the endgame approaches in the Bush administration's attempts to build democracy in Iraq:
MaxSpeak, You Listen!: DE BA'ATHIFICATION WATCH: It isn't working out exactly as anticipated. The way it works apparently is that the U.S. recruits Ba'athists to run puppet administrations and the fundies cut their heads off. Ouch. I hate when that happens.
Here's the New York Times story he is reading:
Posted by DeLong at August 28, 2004 07:00 PM | TrackBackThe New York Times > International > Middle East > Insurgency: In Western Iraq, Fundamentalists Hold U.S. at Bay: "Falluja and Ramadi, and much of Anbar Province, are now controlled by fundamentalist militias, with American troops confined mainly to heavily protected forts on the desert's edge.... Even bombing raids appear to strengthen the fundamentalists, who blame the Americans for scores of civilian deaths.
American efforts to build a government structure around former Baath Party stalwarts - officials of Saddam Hussein's army, police force and bureaucracy who were willing to work with the United States - have collapsed. Instead, the former Hussein loyalists, under threat of beheadings, kidnappings and humiliation, have mostly resigned or defected to the fundamentalists, or been killed. Enforcers for the old government, including former Republican Guard officers, have put themselves in the service of fundamentalist clerics they once tortured at Abu Ghraib.
In the past three weeks, three former Hussein loyalists appointed to important posts in Falluja and Ramadi have been eliminated by the militants.... The chief of a battalion of the American-trained Iraqi National Guard in Falluja was beheaded by the militants, prompting the disintegration of guard forces in the city. The Anbar governor was forced to resign.... The... provincial police chief in Ramadi, was lured to his arrest... after three assassination attempts led him to secretly defect to the rebel cause.
The national guard commander and the governor were both forced into humiliating confessions, denouncing themselves as "traitors" on videotapes that sell in the Falluja marketplace for 50 cents.... The situation across Anbar represents the latest reversal for the First Marine Expeditionary Force, which sought to assert control with a spring offensive in Falluja and Ramadi that incurred some of the heaviest American casualties of the war.... The offensive ended, mortifyingly for the marines, in a decision to pull back from both cities and entrust American hopes to the former Baathists.
The American rationale was that military victory would come only by flattening the two cities, and that the better course lay in handing important government positions to former loyalists of the ousted government, who would work, over time, to wrest control from the Islamic militants who had emerged from the shadows.... But the Falluja Brigade is in tatters now... its headquarters in Falluja abandoned.... [The m]en... have mostly fled, Iraqis in Falluja say, taking their families with them, and handing their weapons to the militants....
Americans say a rapid buildup of the new Iraqi Army, the national guard and the police, coupled with gathering momentum in "turning dirt" on the thousands of reconstruction projects financed by $18-billion in American money, should eventually improve security across Iraq. But the Americans acknowledge that a full, nationwide election in January may not be possible. For now, they have identified 15 cities across the Arab parts of Iraq that they contend can be stabilized to make voting in January possible. For the moment, they say, Falluja and Ramadi are not among them.
I was hoping things would finally clear up, and in some ways they've gotten better, but... The sad thing is, the snarky right-crust apologists and low-brow gopetariat who listen to talk radio will never admit to what's going on. They want to go down, and take us all, with their commander in cheeck.
Just to see how *honest* libertarians (not the pseudorepublican hacks) take this situation and the Admin, see the fablulous blog http://blog.light-of-reason.com.
Posted by: Neil' at August 28, 2004 07:15 PMThis is really only one of three endgames, each reflecting a different reality in different parts of Iraq: the Baathist/fundamentalist coalition in Sunni areas, Kurdish self-government in the north, and Sistani's clerical old guard apparently reasserting control in the south. The country is being torn in three directions before our very eyes. Whether these three ministates can be held together through some form of loose federalism is an open question. The bigger battle will be over borders between these areas, particularly around Kirkuk. And, of course, whither Baghdad?
Posted by: rosswords at August 28, 2004 07:20 PMBasra may not be an election participant either:
British envoys under siege in Basra
Thomas Harding | Basra | August 27
The Telegraph - The British diplomatic mission in Basra has been under siege for three weeks, suffering almost daily mortar attacks as security in the southern Iraq city has deteriorated dramatically.
The only way in or out of the mission is by military helicopter and the British Army now moves around Basra only in armoured vehicles.
Since the start of the uprising in the holy city of Najaf earlier this month there has been a "lockdown" at the Office of the British Embassy in Basra, an extension of the Baghdad embassy, as militiamen loyal to the radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr have taken control of large areas of the city. ...
Posted by: David W. at August 28, 2004 07:29 PMI think the Kurds deserve to keep a great deal of independence, but has anyone really planned for their future?
Posted by: Neil' at August 28, 2004 07:49 PMPlan? Maybe someone in Iraq has a plan for the Kurdish role in the new Iraq, but it sure isn't the Bush Administration. Long term realistic planning seems to be beyond the Bushies. Fall back plans are clearly more then they can manage.
Iraq seems to resemble former Yugoslavia in some ways, but while I've tried to read as much as I can about Iraq's history, I can't say I know anywhere near enough to have a good idea of what may happen to Iraq. It'd be wonderful if civilans could start living a somewhat normal life again but so far that seems pretty faraway. I wish all the Bushies had to live in Baghdad for awhile--and not in the Green Zone.
Posted by: azurite at August 28, 2004 08:11 PMYou can add Najaf to the Iraqi cities that Americans have been forced to abandon. City by city, the US is being thrown out. We have done too little too late.
Posted by: bakho at August 28, 2004 08:19 PMIt seems to me that everything is election-driven. No matter how awful the result, the more that Bush can hand Iraq over to Iraqis (Ba'athists, fundamentalists, Kurds, anyone) the more he can claim that we have won. Even though what he actually does contradicts all remaining justifications of the war.
Posted by: zizka / John Emerson at August 28, 2004 09:00 PMIt has always been election-driven, apart from the original conception. Even original virulent opposers of the war like myself find it hard to assimilate the utter incompetency of this administration in matters of war and diplomacy. It is just breath-taking. It's Vietnam on speed.
Posted by: knut wicksell at August 28, 2004 09:44 PMI saw a good bumper sticker today: "Impeach that son of a Bush".
knut writes " It has always been election-driven, apart from the original conception." And I'm trying to figure out how even that original conception was not election driven. I can hear Rove giving him the message that this will be the ticket to the next election: The War President.
'Need a clue re the immaculate (original) conception.
will honkies NEVER learn?
Neil' wrote, "Just to see how *honest* libertarians (not the pseudorepublican hacks) take this situation and the Admin, see the fablulous blog http://blog.light-of-reason.com."
The best site that features libertarians (as well as others) with anti-war views is antiwar.com.
"I think the Kurds deserve to keep a great deal of independence, but has anyone really planned for their future?"
That's going to be difficult, as Turkey, Iran, and Syria (all with Kurdish minorities) wouldn't be too happy about it.
Posted by: liberal at August 29, 2004 05:20 AMhttp://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/29/international/middleeast/29province.html?hp
In Western Iraq, Fundamentalists Hold U.S. at Bay
By JOHN F. BURNS and ERIK ECKHOLM
BAGHDAD, Iraq - While American troops have been battling Islamic militants to an uncertain outcome in Najaf, the Shiite holy city, events in two Sunni Muslim cities that stand astride the crucial western approaches to Baghdad have moved significantly against American plans to build a secular democracy in Iraq.
Both of the cities, Falluja and Ramadi, and much of Anbar Province, are now controlled by fundamentalist militias, with American troops confined mainly to heavily protected forts on the desert's edge. What little influence the Americans have is asserted through wary forays in armored vehicles, and by laser-guided bombs that obliterate enemy safe houses identified by scouts who penetrate militant ranks. Even bombing raids appear to strengthen the fundamentalists, who blame the Americans for scores of civilian deaths.
American efforts to build a government structure around former Baath Party stalwarts - officials of Saddam Hussein's army, police force and bureaucracy who were willing to work with the United States - have collapsed. Instead, the former Hussein loyalists, under threat of beheadings, kidnappings and humiliation, have mostly resigned or defected to the fundamentalists, or been killed. Enforcers for the old government, including former Republican Guard officers, have put themselves in the service of fundamentalist clerics they once tortured at Abu Ghraib.
In the past three weeks, three former Hussein loyalists appointed to important posts in Falluja and Ramadi have been eliminated by the militants and their Baathist allies. The chief of a battalion of the American-trained Iraqi National Guard in Falluja was beheaded by the militants, prompting the disintegration of guard forces in the city. The Anbar governor was forced to resign after his three sons were kidnapped. The third official, the provincial police chief in Ramadi, was lured to his arrest by American marines after three assassination attempts led him to secretly defect to the rebel cause.
We should ask Ahmed Chalabi what will happen, after all, he was born in Iraq, although he never lived there, the son of a former elite. He's the one who got us into that hell hole,
only country on earth the US invaded twice.
For those Bush-apologists who still maintain Iraq is better off without Saddam, recall that before GW I, there was nearly full employment, all medical care was free, gasoline was $0.17 a gallon, and children received free meals, books, uniforms, and education. True Plato's Republic, widely respected as a sectarian, non-royalist benefactor thoughout the entire Middle East.
That must have really grated on the Kuwaiti and Saudi royals, and the Iranian mullahs, and most certainly grated on Ariel Sharon and AIPAC when Saddam began giving support to freedom fighters, which, truth be told, was the real reason he was ousted, that, and the price of crude oil too low for Big Oil's liking. Saddam was a maverick.
After GW I/II, there is near total unemployment, there is no medical care and what can be found Iraqi's have to pay for sans insurance, gasoline and food have skyrocketed in price, and children now have to pay for their meals, books, uniforms and education, when US bombings aren't killing them. Not to mention the complete collapse of society, kind of like here in the United States.
There's something of a blind-spot on these right-wing Neocon Bush supporters. When you point out the obvious, independent news reports, the daily photos of dead Iraqi women and children, carnage on the evening news, then at some point they'll snap, wave their hands violently in the air, and shout, "It's all Clinton's fault!" over and over.
A messianic mentality doesn't allow controversy.
Get Israeli's out of American government, or, as Lincoln foretold, we will surely hang separately.
One of the things I dreaded immediately after 9/11 when I knew we would be going to war somewhere is the dilemma: if the war news is good, Bush wins; but if we're caught hoping for bad news, Bush wins bigger.
By and large, that dilemma has been passed. The bad news just keeps on coming. So now we're dealing with th other one: If Bush screws up badly enough that he isn't re-elected, his successor will not be able to have a positive program, but will just spend his time dealing with the aftermath of disasters.
And the rightwing attack bots will be merciless from day one. So my job will presumably to tell my fellow despised leftists that we have to support Kerry, whether or not we like what he's doing.
zizka, that's been clear for years, now. I don't know whom to credit, but somebody (Daily Howler?) made the claim that what was done in the 2000 campaign to Gore, by the GOP and media, wasn't done because he was Gore. It was done because he was a Democrat. This has been proven true with Kerry (swiftboat vets for the lie, and their accomplices 'journalists unworthy of the name').
It's also been clear that the next Democrat who became president would face a repeat of the GOP's slime campaign against Clinton. It worked pretty well the first time (partially neutralizing a skilled politician); version 2.0 would probably work better.
Posted by: Barry at August 30, 2004 08:21 AMBarry: "It was done because he was a Democrat."
I'm not so sure. Most likely it was done because there is a subset of 'Pubs who will sink to any depth to gain and retain power. McCain, no Dem he, was slimed good n' plenty. Moderate 'Pubs are hearing threats to move right or face ugly primary fights. Clinton was attacked on Day One, long before any justification based on his actions or policies could be ginned up- this mindlessly vicious power-mongering is so selfish I see no gradiation recognized between would-be victims.
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