Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog: Faster Economic Growth than in Three of the Last Thirteen Presidencies! (Bush Makes False Stuff Up Department

September 01, 2004

Faster Economic Growth than in Three of the Last Thirteen Presidencies! (Bush Makes False Stuff Up Department

The scary thing is not so much that Bush doesn't know that his numbers on the economy are wrong, but that nobody in the press corps seems to know--or is it cares?--that his numbers on the economy are wrong, and that nobody in his entourage seems to know--or is it cares?--that his numbers on the economy are wrong:

Remarks by the President at 2004 Farm Progress Show : I'm running because I know there's more to do to keep this economy strong. We've been through a lot together when it came to this economy. We've been through a recession. We've been through corporate scandals. The terrorist attack hurt our economy. And yet, we've got an economy that's growing. We've overcome the obstacles. We've overcome them because we've got great workers. We've overcome them because we've got great farmers. We've overcome those obstacles because the entrepreneurial spirit is strong and the small business sector of this economy is alive and well. And I believe we've overcome those obstacles because of well-timed tax cuts.... We helped our small businesses. We helped them purchase equipment. This time, the check was actually in the mail, too. Because we acted, our economy has been growing at rates as fast as any in nearly 20 years...

"...growing at rates as fast as any in nearly twenty years..." That's what he said. Yesterday, in fact.

In the most recent quarter, the American economy grew at a rate of 2.8% per year--a faster rate than at any time in the pre-Bush era since... the second quarter of 2000, when the economy grew at 6.4%. Maybe he's looking at a longer time span.

In the most recent two quarters, the American economy grew at a rate of 3.6% per year--a faster rate than at any time in the pre-Bush era since... the two quarters ending in the second quarter of 2000, when the economy grew at 3.7%. Maybe he's looking at a longer time span.

In the most recent three quarters, the American economy grew at a rate of 3.8% per year--a faster rate than at any time in the pre-Bush era since... the three quarters ending in the second quarter of 2000, when the economy grew at 4.9%. Maybe he's looking at an even longer time span.

In the most recent four quarters, the American economy grew at a rate of 4.7% per year--a faster rate than at any time in the pre-Bush era since... the four quarters ending in the second quarter of 2000, when the economy grew at 4.9%. Maybe he's looking at an even longer time span.

In the most recent five quarters, the American economy grew at a rate of 4.6% per year--a faster rate than at any time in the pre-Bush era since... the five quarters ending in the fourth quarter of 1999, when the economy grew at 5.0%. Maybe he's looking at an even longer time span.

In the most recent six quarters, the American economy grew at a rate of 4.1% per year--a faster rate than at any time in the pre-Bush era since... the six quarters ending in the second quarter of 2000, when the economy grew at 4.4%.

Over his term so far, the economy has grown at an average rate of 2.5% per year. That's a slower rate than economic growth during... Clinton II, Clinton I, Reagan II, Reagan I, Carter (yes, really), Nixon I, Johnson, Kennedy-Johnson, Eisenhower I, and Truman. The economy has grown more slowly in only three presidential terms in the last 13: Bush 41, Nixon-Ford, and Eisenhower II.

I predict a response: presidents influences but doesn't control the economy, and so shouldn't be blamed for slow growth on his watch. Yes, but this misses the bigger points:

Presidents shouldn't say blatantly false things--not even to the crowd at a Farm Progress Show in Iowa.
Presidents should have people in their entourage who know when what they are saying is blatantly false.
Presidents should have people in their entourage who care enough to stop them from saying things that are blatantly false.

But "growth as fast as any in nearly twenty years," sounds a lot better than "growth as fast as any in nearly four years," or "growth faster than in 3 of the last 13 presidencies, doesn't it?

Posted by DeLong at September 1, 2004 02:33 PM | TrackBack

Comments

Good call on pegging the crowd. It's not your average farmer there test driving $200,000 tractors.

Although I myself am a proponent of free trade, for the sake of vote pandering, I wish there was someone from the Kerry camp there to remind them of the 10 year anniversary of the "contract with america" specifically the "freedom to farm" portion that promised to have farmers off of subsidies a while ago.

Posted by: Clayton at September 1, 2004 02:50 PM

OH man, I wish someone would just pay attention.
The thought of four more years makes my head throb...

Posted by: Andrew McManama at September 1, 2004 03:06 PM

Don't you watch The Daily Show, for peetsake? If you did, you would know:

"THE FACTS ARE BIASED"

How dare you pick on Republican positions with actual data. The truth is what they say it is, and no mere liberal is going to change that.

Posted by: Alan at September 1, 2004 03:22 PM

People are saying that Republicans don't care about telling the truth much.

Posted by: W at September 1, 2004 03:34 PM

Whenever you see Bush make a statement like this, check for weasel words that make what he said technically accurate if you squint in just the right way. His speechwriters are pretty careful. Notice that he said "our economy HAS BEEN growing..." Not, IS GROWING. In the four quarters from Q22003 to Q12004, the economy grew at a 5.04 percent annual rate, which was the strongest in nearly 20 years. So he's right: It HAD BEEN growing at the fastest pace in 20 years, just a couple quarters ago, before all the stimulus faded away and left us with a slowing economy....

Posted by: rex at September 1, 2004 03:38 PM

What do you expect from a part that is touting the Bush Prosperity ?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52527-2004Sep1.html

The mind boggles.

Posted by: Pi Zeta at September 1, 2004 03:56 PM

Fastest Growth Rate in 4 Years - not 20 years. Even before the downward revision for 2004QII, Paul Krugman noted that growth from mid-1999 to mid-2000 was higher than the growth from mid-2003 to mid-2004. But fastest growth rate since Bush took office is not a very good campaign slogan.

So I guess Cheney will go back to his claim real wages are rising and Bush will stick to this bogus claim that his economists are forecasting a major reduction in the deficit (even though neither are true).

Posted by: pgl at September 1, 2004 03:56 PM

What do you expect from a party that is touting the Bush Prosperity ?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52527-2004Sep1.html

The mind boggles.

Posted by: Pi Zeta at September 1, 2004 03:57 PM

rex probably parsed it correctly. But it could also be this: "has been growing" implies "...and will continue to grow," meaning Bush is already figuring on gangbuster growth for the rest of the year and beyond. You can't prove him wrong!

Posted by: Grumpy at September 1, 2004 04:14 PM

I did a google search for "fastest growth in 20 years" and the 6th link offers what is presumably the etymology of the phrase-- http://www.georgewbush.com/News/Read.aspx?ID=2897. If this is the source of the recent comment, then it's now anachronistic as even implausibly aggressive Q3 and Q4 projections of 4% and 5% respectively would generate 2004 growth less than 1999. Note that year/year growth not Q4/Q4 growth is being alluded to, which is perfectly legitimate analytically and what the Blue Chip consensus derives from.

Posted by: John at September 1, 2004 04:20 PM

How is it that Bush can assert that he has created "1.5 million new jobs", as he did recently, without anyone seeming to notice his omission of the fact that 2.6 million have also been lost? Why doesn't Kerry nail his lying ass on this? (maybe this will be a good role for Bob Kerry).

In the same vein, how can Bush assert that he is "bringing peace to the world" at a time when we are laying waste to Najaf?

Posted by: Bob H at September 1, 2004 05:00 PM

In the same vein, how can Bush assert that he is "bringing peace to the world" at a time when we are laying waste to Najaf?

The press is too stupid. Kerry won't fight. This campaign is really starting to annoy the hell out of me. What are they doing?

Posted by: Bernard Yomtov at September 1, 2004 05:23 PM

And I've heard this misstatement re GDP growth on national CBS radio news at least half a dozen times. They must play it every time he says it. And never once even a comment on the problem with it.

And once Kerry made a comment that was clearly about the *median* income tax cut (for working families), and the announcer saw fit to "correct" him immediately afterwards with the misleading Bush statistic on the mean tax cut average over everyone.

I don't like to play the media bias game... but... it is curious...

The GNP growth statistics are not difficult to look up, since they are right at the top or the BEA internet site. Or you can get them from the economic statistics calendar at Yahoo news.

Posted by: jml at September 1, 2004 05:41 PM

Brad, stop you're whining. You're nothing but a Nattering Nabob of Negativity; an economic girlie-man. You think the economy is bad? Stop whining; you don't know from economic hardship; you just ain't seen nothing yet!

Posted by: mac at September 1, 2004 05:42 PM

"I predict a response: presidents influences but doesn't control the economy, and so shouldn't be blamed for slow growth on his watch."

I think Robert Samuelson did that in this morning's WaPo, Brad:

"Explaining the slow job growth isn't easy, particularly now. Everything is politicized. John Kerry slams Bush's policies -- and Bush boasts that they're working. Where they agree is in the presumption that presidents can deliver prosperity. Politicians, the media and the public embrace this notion. Unfortunately, it isn't even a half-truth. More like a sixteenth."

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A50988-2004Aug31.html

Samuelson's another of those not-very-brights of whom you have to wonder, why do editors give a guy like this any space on an op-ed page?

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Posted by: Bean at September 1, 2004 05:54 PM

The RJ Samuelson op-ed shrug -man, nice work if you can get it. I guess he just changes the names and dates on that article, points and clicks, and waits for the check to come in.

Posted by: jml at September 1, 2004 06:04 PM

I was going to post a comment criticizing Prof. DeLong for referring to the Nixon-Ford economic record, but not the Kennedy-Johnson record, but that is, in fact, what he did do. Good job!

Posted by: Arnold Snarb at September 1, 2004 06:30 PM

Gee, how many months (years?) has it been now that the Fed has held short-term interest rates several percent before the true (not phony official) rate of inflation? Considering that pedal-to-the-metal stimulus, the growth rates during Bush's term seem pathetically low.

Posted by: jm at September 1, 2004 07:15 PM

Kerry might very well be responding-- but our wonderful media may not be giving anywhere as good of coverage (unquestioning, front page, etc.) to anything Kerry says as it does to Bush. As for Bush lying, this is something new? It's been going on since 2000.

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OT: A bombshell from Salon...MUST READ

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Posted by: standa at September 1, 2004 07:29 PM

How about "better economic growth than many of the previous 42 presidents"? Wolf and Candy will probably push that as a real winning sloga.

Posted by: Brian Boru at September 1, 2004 09:41 PM

To me, the frightening thing about this is that Bush is focussing his campaign entirely at the base -- ignorant people who don't pay attention. I follow the Bush campaign moderately closely, and almost nothing they say holds up under scrutiny -- "Kerry voted to raise taxes 532 times", "Kerry voted against 37 weapons systems" "He flipflops all the time", etc.

WHAT THIS MEANS is that if he is reelected, he'll have no obligations whatoever to anyone with a lick of sense. Adrian Spidle and Norman Rogers will be in power.

Posted by: zizka / John Emerson at September 1, 2004 10:40 PM

Kerry made his military career an issue, and he got smeared for it. According to the GOP, he got what was coming to him.

So when Bush takes "credit" for a failing economy, what's wrong with pointing out that he's actually taking credit for a failure?

Posted by: Dragonchild at September 2, 2004 02:22 AM

"WHAT THIS MEANS is that if he is reelected, he'll have no obligations whatoever to anyone with a lick of sense."

He'll have obligations to his big campaign contributors, won't he?

Posted by: J Thomas at September 2, 2004 06:44 AM

Bob H

"Why doesn't Kerry nail his lying ass on this?"

Apparently this is a very good question. I am worried that Kerry has pulled a Dukakis by letting Rove define him. I thought that perhpas it was just me, but now I see that James Carville has said Kerry better start responding and FAST.

Posted by: me at September 2, 2004 07:14 AM

assman:
The Prof has explained exactly the points you make about the effect of a secular upward shift in productivity growth repeatedly, so you are wrong there. The Prof has also argued that an effective counter cyclical policy under such circumstances requires special attention to keeping aggregate demand high. The Prof has also argued that the Bush policies do not follow this guideline, and therefore are inefficient. So you are wrong in asserting that he has not done his job in explaining macroeconomics. The Prof and commenters on this site have repeatedly argued that the problem has not been a severe recession, but an ineffective policy that has severly hampered the recovery from a mild recession. Analyses have borne this out: eg, the weak recovery due to very weak job creation, not severe job destruction during the recession. And statistics show that by most measures this has been the slowest and weakest recovery from a post-war recession yet. So it seems to me that all your points are wrong

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You say: "presidents influences but doesn't control the economy, and so shouldn't be blamed for slow growth on his watch". But isn't he in fact taking "credit" for precisely this?

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