A disappointing unemployment claims number:
Bloomberg News: First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose by 19,000 to 362,000 in the week ended Aug. 28 from 343,000 the week before, the Labor Department said in Washington. The total was the highest since the week of April 10. Floridians put out of work by Hurricane Charley accounted for about half of the increase, a department spokesman said.... The economy probably created 150,000 jobs last month, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists, about five times the number added in July though still below the 225,400 average of the first five months of the year. ``This number is high enough to be a little worrying...' said David Sloan, senior economist at 4Cast Ltd.... ``We're not heading back to recession, but the economy is not expanding at a pace that's going to create many jobs,'' he said....
``This number was a bit of a surprise, but once you take out the storm-related claims, we're still at a level that corresponds to monthly payroll growth of about 150,000,'' said Wesley Beal, an economist at financial research firm IDEAglobal in New York...
But 150,000 a month is a pace of growth for payroll employment that's just a hair above what is needed to keep pace with the trend growth of the labor force. It doesn't shrink the output gap by very much.
It is a very interesting and unusual business-cycle conjuncture. Output is growing at what would in normal times be thought of as a healthy pace. But our measurements of utilization and employment relative to potential suggest an economy with a large and slowly-growing gap between production and the economy's productive potential.
Posted by DeLong at September 2, 2004 01:36 PM | TrackBackYeah, and what kinds of jobs are those that were created?
That's a big question...
Look at the stock market rally that started today at precisely 2:00pm Eastern. The jobs number will be good tomorrow. Someone is leaking it to Wall Street.
Posted by: elliottg at September 2, 2004 03:44 PMSo far, I've never heard of the jobs report being leaked. If it was leaked this time,that would be a major scandal. So I don't think there was any leaking.
My guess -- a lightly traded market made it easy to drive the market up. Rumors on the job report might be in. The forecast is 150K, but the whisper number sis probably 100K, so 150K would be seen as good.
Posted by: Pi Zeta at September 2, 2004 04:07 PMIn his speech, Bush apparently says : "To create more jobs in America, America must be the best place in the world to do business. "
He's been saying that a lot.
It seems to me this implicitly means driving down American wages to the level of India and China and other developing nations.
Professor DeLong and other fine minds,
What is your take on the argument that small and medium-size firms have been aggressively deploying enterprise resource planning applications to the detriment of new hires ? These labor-saving technologies are encouraged by the coming expiration of the accelerated depreciation of capital spending and could explain a significant portion of the unexpected slack that persists in the labor market.
Barry Ritholz mentioned this and increased dividend payouts in an entry on his website. I find the ERP explanation more compelling but would like to hear your analysis of their contribution to the labor market's problems.
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2004/08/economists_vs_j.html
self, can non-fine minds like mine join in? Me try. :)
On a microeconomic level, small businesses can never have too much staff. Resource planning won't prevent them from hiring whom they can afford so much as help them do more with what their budget allows. Also, I'd argue the "slack" was never unexpected: I sure as hell saw it coming.
In my (attempt at) understanding the labor market, I mix the macroeconomics of federal policies with in-the-trenches game theory. There's a Nash Equilibrium at work, in that no company wants to be the first to provide the well-paid workers that will spend wads of cash on others' businesses. Hence, government steps in with stimuli to get the bandwagon rolling.
Problem is, Bush threw everything we had at the people least likely to spend it -- the uber-rich. No spark, no bandwagon, Nash Equilibrium remains stubbornly in place. Of course, that mountain of money needed to go SOMEWHERE, which is why the stock and housing markets are doing so well.
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Jon H has obviously never heard of factor price equaisation
Don't be an economic girly man!
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