Bad news about the third quarter:
Posted by DeLong at September 2, 2004 01:46 PM | TrackBackUSNews.com: Biz Buzz: Waning Wal-Mart sales (9/2/04): Wal-Mart. The nation's biggest discounter said sales at stores open for more than one year grew just 0.5 percent in August. That's about a percentage point below expectations.... Wal-Mart is the single biggest force in the retail economy, accounting for nearly $1 of every $10 in retail sales generated in the United States. Moreover, back-to-school season is considered among the most important windows of opportunity for retailers, second only to the holiday shopping season.
Wal-Mart also began to ratchet down expectations for September same-store sales, in part because of financial stresses among consumers.... Among the major department store chains, the news was no better. Federated Department Stores (parent of Macy's and Bloomingdale's) saw comparable-store sales fall 2.4 percent last month. May Department Stores (which operates major regional chains like Lord & Taylor, Hecht's, and Marshall Field) saw sales at stores open for more than one year fall 6.7 percent. And same-store sales at Sears were down 6.1 percent.
Specialty retailers got slammed, too. Limited Brands, parent company of such familiar chains as the Limited, Express, and Victoria's Secret, said same-store sales fell 2 percent last month. Comparable-store sales at Ann Taylor, a clothing retailer that caters to professional women, tumbled 4.5 percent in August. And same-store sales plunged 5 percent at Abercrombie & Fitch, a clothing company that caters to the youth market....
You see, that's exactly why we need to permanently eliminate the estate tax.
Wal-Mart lowered earnings guidance, as did several other retail chains. Ford and GM have cut output targets for Q4. Intel issued a mid-quarter correction after the stock close that has so far put a minor dent in equities. Let's hope the jobs data are respectable.
By the way, here is the really clever rumor that circulated in the darker corners of the bond market today. Bush gets the jobs figure the afternoon before it is released, so he has it for tonight's speech. He needs the number to be strong. Therefore the number will be strong. Sell Treasuries. Of course, it was not laid out so as to be so obviously wrong, but that's what it boiled down to. The fact that yesterday's rally probably would have led to profit-taking ahead of the data even if Bush were not speaking should probably be held in mind when reviewing the rumor.
Posted by: kharris at September 2, 2004 02:13 PMIf Wal-Mart's same-store sales have come to a standstill, people are really hurting out there.
Ford and GM scaling back, department-store sales down, more people out of work, poverty up yet again, income flat, more people without health insurance, tax cut stimulus played out, refi boom ditto, gas prices high and staying there...exactly what's gonna drive a recovery?
Hell, I'm starting to wonder about the possibility of a double-dip recession here.
This is what happens when you have a recovery, but the rich hog all its benefits for themselves. In the end, NOBODY wins.
Posted by: RT at September 2, 2004 02:19 PMHey Adrian, this thread is about economics, not about Kerry's medals. Grow up.
Anyhow, on top of autos and department stores, we have Intel:
Intel, the world's largest maker of chips used in personal computers and servers, said it now expects sales for the quarter, which ends in September, to come in at a range of $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion. The $8.45 billion midpoint of this range is much lower than the consensus estimate of $8.9 billion. Intel had said in July that it expected sales to be between $8.6 billion and $9.2 billion.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/09/02/technology/intel/index.htm
Posted by: RT at September 2, 2004 02:39 PMAn interesting column -
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/02/business/02scene.html
Wal-Mart and Productivity
By JEFF MADRICK
ON this Labor Day, it is worth remembering how widely it was once argued that America's new economy would produce more democratic workplaces that depended on the advancing skills of workers. Old assembly-line mass production was dead, hierarchical management was a dinosaur, and the nation's productivity would be raised rapidly through the creation of interesting new jobs at higher pay and benefits.
But the new economy, it appears, can cut two ways. New technologies can be used to create good jobs, but they can also be used to create stultifying and poorly paid ones. In fact, the latter possibility, more than outsourcing or globalization, may account for why the nation's productivity has been rising recently while real wages are stagnating and job creation is well behind the pace of past recoveries.
Posted by: anne at September 2, 2004 02:46 PMHow's Bush going to spin this stuff? How does down go up, and up go down?
Posted by: alabama at September 2, 2004 02:59 PMA 10 year treasury note yielding 4.12%, a day before the jobs report certainly calls for profit taking. Why the report should come in stronger than enough jobs to keep up with growth in the labor force, is a mystery to me. We can hope for a strong report, but I see no signs pointing this way.
Posted by: anne at September 2, 2004 03:22 PMDon't be an economic girly man! Go buy some crap at Walmart!
Posted by: Kaus Hackula at September 2, 2004 03:26 PM"He needs the number to be strong. Therefore the number will be strong."
Since when did anyone in, or speaking for, the GWB administration care about actual numbers. He needs the numbers to be strong so he makes them strong.
Posted by: ogmb at September 2, 2004 03:28 PMWal Mart is beginning to reap the rewards of firing its customers. Maybe they should go channel Henry Ford for awhile.
Posted by: Lynne at September 2, 2004 03:49 PMhttp://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/02/business/02scene.html?
A new study by Arindrajit Dube and Ken Jacobs of the University of California, Berkeley, has produced clear evidence of Wal-Mart's comparatively low wages. The researchers calculate that in the San Francisco Bay Area, the company's average wage, about $11 an hour, is roughly 30 percent below what unionized workers get in local grocery chains.
They also find that the average Wal-Mart wage for all of California is 20 to 30 percent below the average wage paid by retailers with 1,000 or more workers.
"Since when did anyone in, or speaking for, the GWB administration care about actual numbers."
As Jon Stewart reminds us, Bush isn't one to let mere facts get in the way of his words.
http://homepage.mac.com/njenson/movies/dsbush.html
Posted by: RT at September 2, 2004 05:27 PM"New technologies can be used. . . to create stultifying and poorly paid [jobs]. In fact, [this] may account for why the nation's productivity has been rising recently. . ."
Hasn't any economist thought of social engineering? People are afraid of losing their jobs, so managers can crack the whip and demand endless amounts of unpaid overtime.
I'll bet Brad a lunch that productivity ALWAYS goes up when the job market stinks.
Posted by: Dragonchild at September 2, 2004 06:01 PMDragonchild: If you have to deliver let's say 20%+ overtime without a raise, you _are_ poorly paid. The problem on the productivity side is that the 20% overtime will yield perhaps less than 5% increase in output, unless what you are doing is of the variety that you can adequately perform half-dead with hourly infusions of coffee. If your activities require alertness and intact thinking, it is not unlikely that your output remains stagnant or even declines. But at least you look busy, and your physical & mental health goes to hell either way. (And you will be laid off when your number comes up anyway.)
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