Intel cuts its estimate of its third-quarter sales by 5%:
Posted by DeLong at September 2, 2004 04:23 PM | TrackBackSept. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Intel Corp., the world's biggest computer-chip maker, cut its forecasts for third-quarter revenue and profit margins as demand from personal-computer makers slows. The shares fell as much as 9 percent in extended trading.
Sales for the quarter will be $8.3 billion to $8.6 billion, the Santa Clara, California-based company said in a statement. That compares with an earlier forecast of $8.6 billion to $9.2 billion. Gross margin will be about 58 percent, compared with a forecast of about 60 percent. Chip demand ``is trending below previous expectations,'' Intel said in the statement. Intel Chief Executive Craig Barrett reversed July comments that said demand is tracking as expected.
Growth in chip sales industrywide is weakening as personal- computer makers pare their own inventory amid lower demand for electronic goods, Intel said. The Semiconductor Industry Association said today that chip sales rose 1 percent in July from June, down from growth of 2.9 percent in the same time last year. Chipmaker Altera Corp. also cut its revenue forecast today.
``The shortfall in growth rates is large,'' said Pierr Johnson, an analyst at John Hancock Advisors Inc., which manages $30 billion including Intel shares. ``That tells me that demand has fallen off more than people expected.'' Intel's pared forecasts are below the reduced estimates that analysts such as Mark Edelstone at Morgan Stanley released this week. Intel shares...
Brad,
CNBC is saying that Bush already knows the job numbers to be released tomorrow. Do you know if this is true/possible. Here on Wall Street the feeling is that a good jobs number tomorrow is integral to the Bush re-election effort. It should be interesting to watch but I can't help thinking (even though I know its probably baseless) that I am going to be a little suspicious if the paroll data shows substantially more than the 150k new jobs that economists are expecting.
Have a good evening.
Brad,
CNBC is saying that Bush already knows the job numbers to be released tomorrow. Do you know if this is true/possible. Here on Wall Street the feeling is that a good jobs number tomorrow is integral to the Bush re-election effort. It should be interesting to watch but I can't help thinking (even though I know its probably baseless) that I am going to be a little suspicious if the paroll data shows substantially more than the 150k new jobs that economists are expecting.
Have a good evening.
Craig Barrett and Pierr Johnson are girlie men.
Posted by: dennisS at September 2, 2004 05:15 PMThe BLS is supposed to provide the Bush economic team with jobs data late in the afternoon the day before, so he probably knows about it.
In terms of goosing the jobs report -- I dunno. This is such a key report, than any attempt at amnipulation would leak, and would lead to a major scandal.
Posted by: Pi Zeta at September 2, 2004 05:26 PMIt is standard pratice that the White House andthe Fed are given the unemployment data on Thursday afternoon.
So yet Bush knows the number.
Posted by: spencer at September 2, 2004 05:26 PMHe may know the number, but it's a little late for Chimpy to monkey with the number.
It would also be politically risky (and very much un-kosher) for him to spill the beans early. Anybody with an economic interest in the employment numbers who missed tonight's speech, and didn't find out what the numbers were until *after* the markets opened in the morning, would be in a disadvantageous position relative to other investors. That could piss off some well-heeled people.
Posted by: RT at September 2, 2004 05:37 PMJobs data, like hostages and space shuttles. Lovely.
Anyway, I hate to go Yoda on the master, but Brad, this humble non-economist knows that Intel plus Wal-Mart do not an economy make.
Posted by: Dragonchidl at September 2, 2004 06:06 PMSo what do you think the birth/death component of the final result will be? According to CES
http://www.bls.gov/web/cesbd.htm
the adjustment for last year's number was 124,000 for the same month. And there seems to be good correlation for the 4 month periods before. ( Only the Jan 04 correction looks suspicious.)
But does it matter? Is this big and rosy number that "integral" to a Bush re-election victory? Don't we have enough bad news already?
Not according to Evans who opines that we have a "very, very, strong economy". Another number isn't going to faze him. Or Arnold.
"Intel plus Wal-Mart do not an economy make."
No. But Intel and Altera plus Ford & GM plus United plus Walmart plus Federated plus May plus Sears plus Abercrombie and Ann Taylor and Victoria's Secret start to look like something.
The Intel, Altera, Ford and GM news is worse than the retailing news, I think. At least as far as the retail shortfall was due to Back To School apparel. BTS is an odd season. It's too short to really develop strong reorders, so buyers tend to buy everything they expect to sell right at the beginning of the season. So a bad BTS doesn't ripple back to the vendors. They've already moved on to their Fall orders. If initial Fall sales are weak, then reorders won't be coming in and then the vendors may have to lay people off, but not from a bad BTS. Stores simply have to suck it up.
But the chips and auto announcements are bad. The auto announcements certainly mean layoffs. Not perhaps for tomorrow's job number, but they'll come. I don't know the chip business well enough to know if the Intel and Altera sales numbers will mean layoffs, or if so, where (among Intel's suppliers, customers, itself?). But I'll guarantee it don't mean increased hiring.
Posted by: jam at September 2, 2004 07:01 PMLet's help Intel out using the old crystal ball.
Combine machine vision, synthetic voice chips, and "transformers" toy-style technology into a cyber-pal for kids. Something along the lines of Pikachu. Confine the whole unit inside a liquid-filled lexan sphere so it never gets damaged and can easily be carried around in a lunch box.
Sell a quadrillion units worldwide, Intel inside.
Posted by: Cros Strees at September 2, 2004 07:04 PM"Reagan showed deficits (and bad economic numbers) are meaningless." (Dick Cheney)
Expect Bush to stick to his tried flag-waving
war-on-terror and personal-freedom script, and giftwrap and ribbon the US economy this way:
(Visual)
Modern farm family against amber waves of grain, purple mountains majesty, and an English Setter running happily through impossibly green grass.
(Voice-over of GWBush)
"America's economy is getting better every day, and my Administration will keep it that way!"
(cut to 30-second Lockheed-Martin commercial)
(back to Brokaw gushing, "what a great speech!")
Posted by: Tante Aime at September 2, 2004 07:21 PMI still don't understand where people (in the bush adminstration, and among the bulls) think the growth is coming from?
Posted by: howard at September 2, 2004 10:08 PMjam: "I don't know the chip business well enough to know if the Intel and Altera sales numbers will mean layoffs, or if so, where (among Intel's suppliers, customers, itself?). But I'll guarantee it don't mean increased hiring."
You bet. I'm in that general industry (and I won't be much more specific than that), and it is not in great shape. Hiring freezes are already being implemented in part as a consequence of the Intel story that has been unfolding for some time, and I expect layoffs soon. Revenue (growth) shortfalls of the chip companies have been rippling through to their suppliers over the last few quarters or so according to what I can see. Intel is an industry heavyweight, and what happens to it is a big deal for the rest.
howard: "I still don't understand where people (in the bush adminstration, and among the bulls) think the growth is coming from?"
It is coming directly from the mouth of the horse itself. Don't you listen to the speeches or read the transcripts?
But on a more serious note, there is little more than bullshit, hot air, and empty phrases. I don't know whether these guys have some deluded ideas of how an economy and society works, or whether they are through & through cynical and Machiavellian. Observationally it probably does not make much difference, and most evidence points to the latter.
And while I cannot offer dead-sure ideas for growth, I can say confidently that growth will only come from putting money in the pockets of the general population who will spend it for useful things (by somebody's definition), not in those of the moneybags who already are running short of "investment" opportunities.
Sustainable energy, less polluting industrial processes, and sustainable living would be worthwhile areas to engage in, but it probably offers too little opportunity to make money, and will affect "only" people's petty quality of life, so chances are private industry won't be interested by itself. It would probably take legislation of the public-works variety.
I'm in the valley and the semi industry looks bad indeed. Intel, Altera, Cypress, IDT all warned today. Look for revisions from the other semis in the future. Obviously, the semi-equipment makers are going to suffer as well (Applied Matl, KLA et al).
The autos were more of a surprise. The steep fall in sales for GM (in spite of a slew of new releases), Ford and even the Japanese manufacturers must definitely portend bad news for the future. And then there's United. Less said the better. But with even Wal Mart stuttering, things definitely look gloomy. No wonder there was little mention of the economy during the convention.
Posted by: Karthik R at September 2, 2004 11:37 PMThe White House can't/won't fiddle with the data.
Bush hardly touched on jobs last night, so expect a bad number.
Posted by: Dave L at September 3, 2004 03:13 AMIf you look at the micro economic data on tech you see involuntary inventory accumulation and orders weakening. Moreover, my calculations of high tech productivity growth is slowing sharply-- and this a great leading indicator of output.
Serious problems are emerging in tech land.
And the answer to that question [ how large a role does the birth/death model play in determining the employment growth number?] is... Of the 144k new jobs, fully 120k of them.
And this 'guesstimate' or what some call 'the plug factor' is no surprise following pretty faithfully the course set by last year's monthly "plugs".
Still, I am only partially pacified because I see an astounding Jan 04 plug of ~-300k giving me the impression that some fudging really was going on before that.
Lastly, to put the scale in perspective, I note that one-off(?) revisions issued recently, take Feb 03 numbers down 120k. So the number, 144k, may be tentative, and not only for the next month or 2.
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