Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog

Professor, this article just may send you into a higher order, one more ancient, more hermetic, and more shrill than the last.

http://www.prospect.org/web/page.ww?section=root&name=ViewWeb&articleId=8449

I slept amazingly well after the speech (the somnolent delivery noted by Kevin Drum, among others, didn't hurt).

I think Berube (accents omitted) hit it out of the park. Apart from the unmentioned unmentionables, some of the would-be rousing imagery was surprisingly off-key (nowhere to go but down?) and various of the promises amazingly empty. As in, I understand people don't have job security as in the old days, so I [may] work to make it easier to take health benefits from one job to the next.

Hopefully, KE04 will notice that this has been teed up for them. The quote on the homepage is not a bad sign:

“For three days in New York, instead of talking about jobs and the economy, we heard anger and insults from the Republicans. And I'll tell you why. It's because they can't talk about the real issues facing Americans. They can't talk about their record because it's a record of failure. I believe it's time to move America in a new direction; I believe it's time to set a new course for America.” - John Kerry, September 3, 2004

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/03/business/03norris.html

"Real after-tax incomes are up by 9.6 percent since December 2000...."

In the area people think of when they hear about personal income - wage and salary payments - the picture is not as pretty. The entire increase there comes from the government payroll. Adjusted for inflation, private industry is paying almost exactly the same as in 2000. To be precise, private spending on wages is up less than 0.1 percent.

No administration back to John F. Kennedy has done as poorly. The two that came closest - a 1.4 percent rise under the first President Bush and a 3.3 percent gain in the term that ended with Gerald Ford in the White House - each ended with incumbents losing the election.

Sullivan,

If you think anyone around here is going to fall for your brand of nonsense, think again. We all know that he isn't going to win by 11 points.
More than that, Kerry had similar results in certain polls. And he fell back down to earth.

"Where's the agenda?"

Actually, he *did* put in a plug for his agenda during the speech. He mentioned that the "details" of his agenda are on his aptly domained website GeorgeWBush.Com (it still kills me that these guys use .com domains— yes, Kerry does too).

But if you look at the "agenda" documented on his website, it's just as empty as the speeches he gives. Where does the energy from all that spin go?

As I have pointed out privately to friends, the policy section of the Kerry website is— say what you will about the merits of the actual policy proposals— a lot more specific. It doesn't mention a lot of numbers, and there's plenty of wiggle language, but it is not *entirely* devoid of intellectual content.

s9,

I have yet to hear one person from Bush-Cheney talk about where the money for all of his programs is going to come from; we didn't hear it over the past few months, nor did we hear it last night. And I sincerely doubt we will hear in the future.

Therefore, Kerry and Edwards should talk about this at every single opportunity. They should never, ever let this go. They should do it so much that people cannot help but think, "He's right. Bush hasn't mentioned it. WHERE IS THIS MONEY COMING FROM?"

Unless he has some sort of secret stash - up his ass, growing on a tree, in the spot where Dick Cheney's heart should be - he won't be able to answer. And when he can't answer, he will be put into a corner from which he cannot escape.

http://www.jobwatch.org/

Weakest job recovery since the 1930s

Since the recession began 41 months ago in March 2001, 1.0 million jobs have disappeared from the U.S. economy, representing a 0.8% contraction. To put this performance in historical perspective, the Bureau of Labor Statistics began collecting monthly jobs data in 1939 (at the end of the Great Depression). In every previous episode of recession and job decline since 1939, the number of jobs had fully recovered to above the pre-recession peak within at least 31 months of the start of the recession (the average, excluding the 1991 recovery, has been 20 months to full recovery).

Private-sector jobs have fared worse than public-sector jobs. Jobs in the private sector have dropped by 1.7 million since March 2001, representing a 1.5% contraction. However, having no job losses, or gains, is a very low standard by which to judge a recovery — with history as a guide, one would have hoped that the economy would have recovered the jobs lost months ago. If job growth had been at the pace of other post-war business cycles (a 5.5% growth by the 41st month), then over 7 million new jobs would have been created by now.

Declines continue in employer-provided health care coverage

According to an EPI analysis of the new data released by the US Census last week, employer-provided health insurance coverage fell between 2002 and 2003, continuing its decline since 2000. In 2003, 56.4% of workers who worked at least 20 hours per week and 26 weeks per year received employer-provided health insurance from their own employer, down from 57.3% the year before and down a total of 2.5 percentage points since 2000. Workers earning lower wages are significantly less likely to have employer-provided health coverage than workers earning higher wages. In 2003, 77.8% of workers in the highest quintile had employer-provided health insurance, whereas only 24.9% of workers in the lowest quintile did. Although the decline in employer-provided health insurance from 2000 to 2003 pervaded all wage levels, the number of insured workers with wages in the second wage quintile fell the most (-4.0%).

Where's the beef?

Frank Luntz focus group last night: Bush over Kerry by 15 to 6 among swing voters with 13 of them deciding because of Bush's speech.

There's the beef.

Of course, outside the convention elected Democrats and their interest-group constituents were distributing raw meat of their own...
~~~

Bush Leading America Into 'Snake Pit of Fascism,' Congressman Says
September 02, 2004

New York (CNSNews.com) - U.S. Rep. Major Owens, a New York Democrat, warned a crowd of feminist protesters that the Bush administration is taking America "into a snake pit of fascism."

Owens also said the Bush administration "spits on democracy" and is leading the country down a path reminiscent of "Nazi Germany"...

http://www.cnsnews.com//ViewNation.asp?Page=\\Nation\\archive\\200409\\NAT20040902a.html
---

Feminists Compare Bush's 2000 Election Victory to 'Savage Rape'
CNSNews.com Senior Staff Writer
September 02, 2004

New York (CNSNews.com) - A featured performer at a National Organization for Women rally accused President Bush of having "savagely raped " women "over and over" by allegedly stealing the 2000 presidential election....

http://www.cnsnews.com//ViewNation.asp?Page=%5CNation%5Carchive%5C200409%5CNAT20040902b.html
~~~~

As to the plan to market the Dems as the party of character and reason running against those name-calling, hate-filled, Repubs, well ... Way to Go!

http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?040906fa_fact

Tax cuts were just the beginning: the President is signalling a far more radical agenda.
By John Cassidy

A few weeks ago, George W. Bush crossed the Potomac to a community college in Annandale, Virginia, where he hosted an “Ask President Bush” town-hall-style meeting and took up a favorite campaign theme, saying that one of the things that separated him from his opponent was his intention to create a “culture of ownership.” The same day, the Bush-Cheney campaign released a new television ad that shows pictures of houses, workers, and businesses as the President announces, “One of the most important parts of a reform agenda is to encourage people to own something. Own their own home, own their own business, own their own health-care plan, or own a piece of their retirement. Because I understand if you own something, you have a vital stake in the future of America.”

The President’s ownership initiative hasn’t featured prominently in the media coverage of the campaign, which, strictly from a news perspective, is understandable: he hasn’t announced many specific proposals to back up his talk. But in downplaying the Bush Administration’s economic agenda the media is missing one of the biggest domestic stories of the 2004 campaign. When the President pledges to create an “era of ownership,” he is not talking merely about encouraging people to buy their own homes and start small businesses. To conservative Republicans who understand his coded language, he is also talking about extending and expanding the tax cuts he introduced in his first term; he is talking about allowing wealthy Americans to shelter much of their income from the I.R.S.; about using the tax code to curtail the government’s role in health care and retirement saving; and, ultimately, about a vision that has entranced but eluded conservatives for decades: the abolition of the graduated income tax and its replacement with a levy that is simpler, flatter, and more favorable to rich people.

Work on achieving this ambitious program began with the tax cuts that Congress passed in 2001, 2002, and 2003, but the conservative economists who advise Bush and the right-wing institutes that support him have more in mind than consolidating their gains. Despite a gaping budget deficit, they are pressing the President to continue down a route that will reverse almost a century of American history. Since the personal income tax was introduced, in 1913, it has been based on two principles: the burden of taxation is distributed according to the ability to pay; and capital and labor carry their fair share. The Bush Administration appears set on undermining both of these principles.

This comment is not quite on topic, but it does have to do with the speech. W sent us to his web site for details. I am trying to understand a figure in Chapter 3 of Bush's "Agenda for America." http://www.georgewbush.com/agenda/Chapter.aspx?ID=3 There is a figure in the section on "Expanding Savings and Investment" on "Who Pays What." It has the following summary: "Under President Bush's tax cuts the share of income taxes paid by the bottom 80% of earners declined by more than 17%." The figure shows the percentage of income tax paid by various income levels before and after the tax cuts.

The source is given as the Congressional Budget Office. This seems to be taken from a report that was issued in August. I haven't found the actual report at the CBO site, Part of my problem may be that the report was in response to Congressional Democrats and may not be on their site as a regular report. It got a lot of press so google finds tons of newspaper articles about it.

A Washington Post article summarizes the report ( http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A61178-2004Aug12.html ) and has a figure that is similar to the one in the Agenda for America. But the figure the Washington Post displays is "federal taxes" not "income taxes" and it's summary is "Under President Bush's tax cuts, the share of federal taxes paid by the middle class rose." It uses the same income cut points as the Bush table (which verifies, I think, that they are from the same study), but has different percentages. "Federal taxes" probably includes social security tax and might also include estate taxes.

In the Agenda for America table, it shows the share of income taxes paid by the top 20% going from 78.4% to 82.1% while the Washington Post article shows the share of federal taxes of the top 20% going from 64.4% to 63.5%.

I'm confused. Maybe estate taxes would account for this, but it seems like a large effect. I would have thought the decrease of taxes of the top 20% would have shown even more sharply with income taxes than with all federal taxes. "Federal taxes" seems more relevant than just "federal income taxes" so the criticism of the Bush administration at the time of the original report still stands, but I would really like to understand how The Agenda for America is coming up with its figure.

Bush's agenda for the next four years: even more tax cuts + more expensive programs = trillion dollar annual deficits. He'll bankrupt the country so his backers can buy it out of receivership for pennies on the dollar.

John

If my memory serves, the federal income tax share data data can be found at cbpp. I have seen such data several times in recent months. Also, David Kay at the New York Times is a fine source.

August 13, 2004

Report Finds Tax Cuts Heavily Favor the Wealthy
By EDMUND L. ANDREWS - New York Times

WASHINGTON - Fully one-third of President Bush's tax cuts in the last three years have gone to people with the top 1 percent of income, who have earned an average of $1.2 million annually, according to a report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office to be published Friday.

The report calculated that households with incomes in that top 1 percent were receiving an average tax cut of $78,460 this year, while households in the middle 20 percent of earnings - averaging about $57,000 a year - were getting an average cut of only $1,090.

The new estimates confirm what independent tax analysts have long said: that Mr. Bush's tax cuts have been heavily skewed to the very wealthiest taxpayers. Those are also the people, however, who pay a disproportionate share of federal income taxes.

The calculations, which were requested by Congressional Democrats, are all but certain to intensify a central debate between Mr. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry, the Democratic presidential nominee.

Mr. Bush has argued that the tax cuts provided crucial support to the economy at a time when it was mired in a recession and reeling from the effects of a stock market collapse, terrorist attacks and corporate scandals.

Mr. Kerry has argued that the cuts were tilted so much in favor of the wealthy that they provided relatively little stimulus to the economy and set the stage for record budget deficits. Since 2001, the federal budget has deteriorated from a surplus of more than $100 billion to a deficit expected to exceed $400 billion in 2004.

Mr. Bush's top economic priority has been to make his tax cuts permanent, rather than letting them expire at the end of this decade as they would under current law. Mr. Kerry would seek to roll back the tax cuts for households with incomes above $200,000 a year, a move his campaign estimates would save $860 billion over 10 years, and use that money in large part to pay for a vast new national health care plan.

According to the new report from the Congressional Budget Office, about two-thirds of the benefits from the tax cuts, enacted in 2001 and 2003, went to households in the top fifth of earnings, with an average income of $203,740.

But the report also gave Republicans support for their contention that tax reduction had brought some benefit to people in almost all income categories. People with the bottom fifth of income, for example, averaging earnings of only $16,620, saw their effective tax rate drop to 5.2 percent from 6.7. Yet because lower- and many middle-income families had been paying very little federal income tax in the first place, those in that bottom fifth of earnings received an average tax cut of only $250.

"It doesn't matter who you are, the report shows that you are better off now than you were before the tax cuts,'' said a House Republican aide. "It's showing that everybody's tax burden has gone down as a result of the tax cuts.''

The tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 reduced tax rates for people in all income brackets. But they had a disproportionate effect on people at the very highest income levels because they had already been paying a disproportionate share of total federal taxes and in part because stock dividends got a special lower rate.

People in the very top income categories fared better by almost any measure, according to the report. The average after-tax income for people in the top 1 percent of income earners climbed 10.1 percent, while that of those in the middle 20 percent climbed 2.3 percent, and that of those in the bottom fifth only 1.6 percent.

Put another way, people with the top 1 percent of income saw their share of the tax burden drop to 20.1 percent after the tax cuts from 21.9 percent under the old law.

William G. Gale, a longtime tax analyst at the Brookings Institution, said the new Congressional report was consistent with his own calculations on the distribution of benefits from Mr. Bush's tax cuts.

"It's not just that lower-income people are getting smaller benefits,'' Dr. Gale said. "It's also that these tax cuts will eventually have to be paid for with either spending cuts or tax increases, and those are likely to be less progressive than the taxes they are paying now.''

John

Sorry, I can not recall the name of the New York Times tax specialist.

Anne, from cbpp I found the name of the CBO report and got it from their site. I didn't look very effectively the first time I tried. The key table is Table 2. It shows both "individual income tax liability" and "share of total federal tax liability." The footnote says "Individual income taxes are generally distributed directly to households paying those taxes. Social insurance, or payroll, taxes are distributed to households paying those taxes directly or paying them indirectly through their employers. Corporate income taxes are distributed to households according to their share of capital income. Federal excise taxes are distributed to them according to their consumption of the taxed good or service." So total tax liability even includes corporate income tax.

So now I see exactly where Agenda for America gets its figure. I still don't understand how the CBO numbers for income tax come out the way they do.

Total tax liability seems like the correct thing to focus on, although one could argue that handling corporate income tax they way they do may not be appropriate. A corporation that pays less tax could end up lowering prices (because its competitors are also able to lower prices) or paying higher wages (also because its competitors could). In any case, one can't simply say that the Agenda for America table is flat out wrong. The url for the CBO report is http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdoc.cfm?index=5746&type=1

Found the name of the New York Times specialist on federal taxes: David Cay Johnston.

John

Tomorrow I will read on the subject. I recall that Paul Krugman has written about the subject as well. Since this Adminsitration and majority in Congress wish more and more slanting of taxes, we have to do some thinking. Thanks.

Jim Glass writes "As to the plan to market the Dems as the party of character and reason running against those name-calling, hate-filled, Repubs, well ... Way to Go!" apparently upset that the mud-slinging is going unnoticed on the Dem side.
Jim, as you point out, the feminists and Mr. Owens are getting pretty good at this game. You think this is a fair comparison though? You figure that the RNC should have the same standards as these special interest groups? You preferred the tone of the RNC to the DNC?

This is the whopper that got to me:

" We went to the United Nations Security Council, which passed a unanimous resolution demanding the dictator disarm, or face serious consequences. Leaders in the Middle East urged him to comply.

After more than a decade of diplomacy, we gave Saddam Hussein another chance, a final chance, to meet his responsibilities to the civilized world. He again refused."

How could Saddam disarm of weapons he did not have? I'm now calling Bush the Menckenian Candidate; he's staking his career on the notion that it is impossible to (mis)underestimate the intelligence of the American people. Hopefully, he will be the first.

Isn't all this talk of an "ownership society" just code for new tax shelters for the well-off?

Bob H: ownership society as code language

No, I don't think so. My reading is that there are two aspects to it -- that you, and only you, "own" the responsibility to provide for what you and your family need in life, as exemplified by private retirement accounts, private healthcare accounts, private education accounts, etc. If bad luck hits you, to hell with you. It's the antithesis of risk pooling and sharing of resources.

The second aspect is that owning ownership shares in enterprises and partaking in financial market gambling will provide the miraculous means of achieving the riches that you need and lead you to the wonderful heaven of prosperity.

Even if thinking this through shortly and not very hard shows that financial industry special interests would disproportionately benefit from this. Whether they are driving this or it is "genuine" ideology is not clear to me. Probably it's a mix.

And noboby should have the right to "take away what belongs to you" (i.e. what those for whom you toil deem appropriate as your share), and conversely you should not have any right to share in what they take for themselves. (After all, they own it, right?) And those who cannot carve out a way to derive an income from society are lazy no-gooders who deserve what they get, i.e. a place under a bridge. All in a compassionate way of course.

Actually, ownership is a big deal for preserving the middle class in a consumer economy. If multinationals keep shipping the jobs overseas until there's nothing to do but sell things to each other at Sprawl-Mart, how long will the workers making things overseas keep shipping stuff for us to consume? It's perfectly good stuff, why shouldn't they just keep it?

If the ownership of the multinationals is sufficiently diffused among us, we'll have to remain a market because we own the factory. There are some sorta scary implications in all this which I'm not smart enough to grasp, but the argument was made (IIRC) in The Atlantic a few months back.

Anyhow I suspect this lingers somewhere in the long-term view of the GOP (to the extent they have one). How it applies to health-care & such is beyond me.

I suspect what Bush proposes is essentially to privatize the financial assets held by the U.S. Government by dumping them into HSA's and other accounts where they will carry the name of an actual citizen but be controlled by some manager somewhere and invested in corporations that dick citizens over and sell us shoddy goods.

To assume that Bush is talking only about tax shelters for rich people could be dangerous. Rich people are voting for him anyway. He's talking to people who hope that his plan will make them rich. That's going to take some actual debunking.

8908 http://www.briana-banks-dot.com for Briana Banks movies. or if you would rather diecast here.

8594 really nicely done. i hope all works well in timefree credit report

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