Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog

The U.S. really has no control over the size of the war it must fight. Like all wars, our enemies control the scope of the conflict. Our need is to fight whatever war is thrust upon us and prevail with the least loss to our society.

The only war in progress, or in prospect, is the Second American Civil War. Until you understand that, you understand nothing.

By noon? I understand that you're in California and that's 3 pm my time, but I don't remember there being any public information tying the planes to bin Laden on the day they hit. Did formerAssistant Secretaries know something the rest of us didn't?

Lawrence, You are right, we seem to no longer have control over the size of this war. That's exactly the failure of this administration. The first laws of warfare include 1) knowing your enmey; 2) isolating them; and 3) defeating them. War strategists DO try to control the size and the conditions of the battles they must fight, in order to win them. Yglesias' point is that on the basis of evidence we seem to be doing exactly the opposite. We've transformed bin Laden from an the leader of a nasty and dangerous but limited paramilitary and terrorist organization into bin-Ladenism, a movement that's spreading throughout the middle-east and parts of Asia.
The reason we have 'no control over the war', as you put it, is because our 'strategy' is led by ideologues and incompetents.

First of all, we need to acknowledge the elephant in the room here, which is American empire. Al Qaeda and its fellow travellers are not apocalyptic nihilists bent on doing us harm as an end in itself (although clearly they enjoy the spectacle of carnage), but a worldwide insurgency against the presence of American empire in the Muslim world - an organization with very specific geopolitical goals. Their chief goal is to reestablish the Islamic caliphate from Morrocco to Afghanistan, and our de facto military protection of bad, repressive Muslim regimes (especially in the Arab world) is the chief obstacle standing in the way of their achieving that goal.

The Wilsonians (the neoconservatives and liberal hawks) seem to grasp that we are in fact an empire, and their answer in a sense is more empire, turn the people of the Arab world into Oprah watching, Pottery Barn shopping, consumerist burgeois fucks neutered of any ill intentions against the west. They are right to suspect that the root causes of Islamist terrorism against America and the west are the political, economic, and cultural status quo in the Arab and wider Muslim world, and our continued enabling of that status quo, but whether or not this strategy of radical democratization and westernization succeeds is quite another matter, and could ultimately lead to a total war with the Muslim world - a clash of civilizations. But even if it succeeds Americans will pay a high cost in liberties lost and massive tax increases.

The liberal internationalists don't even seem to wish to acknowledge that we are an empire, and that the Islamo fascists make no distinction between the empire heavy of Bush, the neocons, the PNAC, AEI, and the Weekly Standard, and the UN and EU sponsored empire-lite of John Kerry (or Howard Dean or Bill Clinton for that matter), the Council on Foreign Relations, Brookings, and the American Prospect. Liberal internationalism sees the problem of Islamist radicalism as something to be handled primarily by international law enforcement and intelligence operations, with military interventions reserved only for states who have directly attacked us, or are harboring those who have attacked us (as in Afghanistan). As a strategy of containment, it might work, but because it does nothing about the root causes of Islamist terrorism against America, containment means that the problem will linger for years, and that every now and again major attacks will slip through the cracks. This is not the cold war, and Americans will not as a political matter accept containment when it means massive periodic attacks on American soil with no end in sight. The American people seem to understand this on a gut level, which is bad news for Kerry and his Democrats (check out the Time and Newsweek post RNC polls for more on that).

9/11 and our response to it (the so-called war on terror) has made me an isolationist. Liberal internationalism just is not selling, nor will it, and the cost in dollars, lives, civil liberties, and cultural freedoms lost is so high with Mr. Bush's Wilsonian strategy it just isn't worth it. This doesn't of course mean that any national politician is going to stand up for isolationism anytime soon, and risk being called an "appeaser," but it does make it potentially the least bad of our options. A realistic isolationist strategy would involve developing full energy independence by the end of the decade, a total withdrawal from the Arab and wider Muslim world (no more occupations, bases - anything), and if necessary restrictions on immigration by Muslims from around the world (you don't need to win hearts and minds when you're not fighting a war on terror.) We will have removed any justification the jihadis have for continuing to attack us, and if they do continue to attack us after we have dismantled our imperial apparatus (the right seems to believe that Islamo-fascism is not simply an imperial ideology, but an imperial one itself, with aspirations beyond the caliphate - they may or may not be right) in the Muslim world we will be fully justified in launching a total war with the Muslim world.

As it stands now, if the Wilsonian strategy fails, and we are ultimately drawn into a total war with the Muslim world, America would have much more legitimacy in such a war if it went isolationist first.

Thank you for framing the issue this way. No doubt al-Qaradawi's statements are alarming but to some degree they are responsive to the facts on the ground. Additional separation of political and religious motivation for such statements should also be noted. There are many troubling conversations in the noosphere conflating this and the Beslan horror with Islamist thought. This is undoubtedtly wrong, just as it is to conflate the actions of Likud with Judaism.

For 30 years I have been saying our MidEast policy should be "develop solar power and get the hell out of there."

Thanks to George Bush, that's no longer even a pipe dream.

Read Jean Paul Satre's No Exit for where we are. If at all possible, we should get out - but it's not possible. See also, France and Algeria. (One of the interesting features of this situation is that the best we can hope for is that we emerge at the end looking like France.)

The 9/11 Commission identifies a specific enemy, Islamist terrorism. It identifies a series of things we can do to minimize the conflicts that give their movement strength. What it does not do is explain how an integrated world economy can contain so many cultural opposites, without meliorating these differences.

The reason for that, Masaccio, is simply that the Mideast Moslem world is not part of that "integrated world economy" -- it's a freakish separate element. The only thing propping it up from economic and political collapse is the fact that it happens to control most of humanity's oil supply.

"The reason for that, Masaccio, is simply that the Mideast Moslem world is not part of that "integrated world economy" -- it's a freakish separate element."

You can thank Mother Europe, and particularly Britain, for that. They carved up the previously prosperous giant free trade zone that was the Ottoman empire into little walled fiefdoms after WWI, and it was all downhill for the Arab world from then on. Of course then they handed this monster off to us to protect and enable for half a century or more, so clearly there's responsibility to go around...

The problem as I see it is that countries dominated by Islam are involved in the world economy through their sales of oil. This administration believes that Islam is not a legitimate basis for a culture, and expects them to become just what Isolationist says: "Oprah watching, Pottery Barn shopping, consumerist burgeois fucks neutered of any ill intentions against the west."

The problem is that co-existence with cultures that do not share Western values is anathema to the cultists of this administration. Democrats generally are more tolerant of the cultural concerns of others, and are more suited to trying to find a way to get along.

Isolationist writes: You can thank Mother Europe, and particularly Britain, for that. They carved up the previously prosperous giant free trade zone that was the Ottoman empire into little walled fiefdoms after WWI, and it was all downhill for the Arab world from then on.

Prosperous? Free Trade? The Ottoman Empire? Are you serious?

What a depressing batch of posts, I should have stayed at the picnic.

Lawrence is completely wrong that we do not have control over the size of this war. I've read estimates that the number of violent al-Qaeda like terrorists is 100-200 thousand. That is not a large army. How effective they are, and how easy it is to hunt them down depends very much on how well they are tolerated by the societies in which they live. And how easy it is to convince misguided young people into joining.

The terrorists, like revolutionaries and guerillas, are fish, and the sympathetic or indifferent people are the water. Mao said that, but even monsters can be correct about some things.

So we had a very very great deal of control over how big this war would be. And missteps by the Bush administration have probably made it bigger.

I don't want to insult anyone who posts here, but when I hear this kind of thing in person, it is usually from a person who has no familiarity with any culture other than white bread US, and this ignorance produces a kind of unfortunately bigotry about what people in other cultures and of other religions are like. I don't know whether this is true of Lawrence. Maybe he has an argument for his posisition -which maybe valid but is surely unsound.

Isolationist needs to move to country where there is no international trade and he can drill, pump his own oil for and refine his own gas. Otherwise his normal everyday is infeasible in his fantasy isolationist world.

My theory on the Time and Nesweek polls is that these surveys are done by phone. Democrats and independents clearly fled their homes after Millers speech, just in case the round-ups had started. We will see a better picture in a couple of days (how much better I don't know, but Kerry was up by 7 or 8 in some polls at the beginning of this month, so these things are volatile).

Well, we're getting off the subject, but:

(1) Rasmussen's phone poll -- taken over the convention's last 3 days -- gives Bush a 4-point lead (3 points in the 16 "battleground states"). I don't know what to think of the difference, except that the Newsweek Poll right after Mondale's acceptance speech in 1984 showed him surging 18 points and moving into a 2-point edge over Reagan, which if true lasted about one hour. Let's see what things look like a few days from now.

(2) Meanwhile, Susan Estrich is now threatening to go nuclear:

http://www.markarkleiman.com/archives/election_2004_/2004/09/susan_estrich_goes_nuclear.php

It will be interesting to see if the Democrats can actually back any of this stuff up. If they can, well, holy cow.

(3) I remain convinced that the most important thing Kerry could possibly do -- both from the strategic point of view, and from the viewpoint of his moral duty toward America -- is to actually come up with and defend a halfway coherent foreign and military policy that will be more effective than Bush's. Which, so far, is precisely what he adamantly refuses to do -- see, for instance, his bizarre statement on giving Bush authority to invade Iraq even if we knew for a certainty that Saddam had no WMDs and was not anywhere close to getting them. I very much wish I did not think that we have not one, but two, idiots running for President in the middle of one of this country's most dangerous crises.

Yep, see, all the Dems took off for Labor Day early, as soon as they could get some forged papers, just in case:

"For the NEWSWEEK poll, Princeton Survey Research Associates interviewed 1,008 adults aged 18 and older Sept. 2 and Sept. 3 by telephone. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points."

On the other hand, we see over and over that variations in the poll results fall outside the margin of error very frequently, and pushning a little outside a 95% CI too, more than 5% of the time, I think. So I think this idea that there are only a few swing voters is a bunch of junk. And a successful political party should never give up on converting anyone on the other side who still has an open mind. Anything else is a loser strategy in the long run.

If Bush and Cheney are still drinking, it would be nice to hear. In fact, I would love to hear it -IT IT'S TRUE AND THEY HAVE SOME REAL EVIDENCE. Sometimes when Bush talks, he still sounds like a nasty bad tempered drunk. But I have said "Naah, that is just my shrillness coming out." It would be nice to have my impressions confirmed as being accurate. That would be about the only nice thing about it, though.

But I think that Democrats have lost the ideological advantage, and need to spend some time on the kind of grass roots organizing and educating campaigns that the conservatives have done. It can't lose since the conservative version is a complete fantasy, while the Democratic version has at least some truth.

For example, the latest GOP line that Clinton left poor Bush an economic train wreck has gained some traction -now they say that it was a completely unstustainable bubble, completely, 1000% nothing at all. And the beginning of the recession keeps getting moved back -now it was supposedly very clear that the economy would soon be in the tank by late summer of 2000! That has been the latest line for a few weeks. Some of my independent friends back home have been swayed by this nonsense.

When I walk them through the convoluted history of the GOP rationales for their tax cuts, it refreshes their memories, and I can get them to at least think about things sensibly -a little bit. Or maybe the GOP argument back then that since the economy was obviously going into the tank, we needed to have tax cuts right away to fend off those scary deficits. And then the recession was the mildest in history, remember? Then it was bad, just in time to join the trifecta. Now it has been retrospectively declared a train wreck.

It is a bad idea to lie about things in front of people who were there, at least it is after their memories are jogged.

Kerry needs to point out that kind of thing more often. Or the good Prof here at this blog might make a start.

meant to type:
**IF** IT'S TRUE AND THEY HAVE SOME REAL EVIDENCE

That is a big IF. But if the IF is true, it is much fairer game than the purple hearts ever were.

Yikes!!
meant to say:

we needed to have tax cuts right away to fend off those scary **surpluses** (not "deficits")

sorry, won't post again when I am in a big rush! I promise.

Iran reminded the US today that it had announced a long time ago its intent to convert umpity tons of uranium into uranium hexafluoride, and to begin processing it's own strategic uranium reserves. Hey, it's a free-trade world, right?

Israel announced that if Iran developed uranium, it would bomb their facilities, like it bombed them the last time Iran built a nuclear reactor. Hey, Israel is the supreme hegemonist, right?

So any deals or agreements happening right now in Iraq will be thrown out the window during the lame duck interval between Kerry's election and Bush leaving office, when Israel bombs Iran with our tacit or likely active US tactical support, and then Bush pardons all the perpetraitors.(sp)

This is your country.
This is your country in all-out nuclear war.
Any questions?

Have you seen the photo slides from Chernobyl?
http://www.kiddofspeed.com/default.htm

jml:

If you heard the bleary-eyed stumble-bum press speech Bush had after his meeting with Putin, then it's no surprise that's he's off the wagon.

And if you heard his speech on Thursday, looking like a wino wondering who all these people are,
then it's no surprise that's he's off the wagon.

Cheney/Miller were doing damage-control. Well.
They just stole 13 points from Kerry, and like they say, there goes the ball game!

DUI in 2004! Another four years of inebriated foreign policy! Another four years of pissing the US economy down the drain! USA in the tank.

Tante Aimee writes: Israel announced that if Iran developed uranium, it would bomb their facilities, like it bombed them the last time Iran built a nuclear reactor. Hey, Israel is the supreme hegemonist, right?

In point of fact, Israel has never bombed an *Iranian* nuclear facility. They did bomb an *Iraqi* facility, at Osirak in 1980, I think.

James Fallows makes this argument in another great article in the October Atlantic "Bush's Lost Year" (actually his second lost year?) Why can't Kerry make this argument?

Wha Happen,
Actually, I have no idea at all whether Bush drinks, and I sure hope he has not fallen off the wagon. The very thought that Bush and Cheney might be drinking makes me ill, and the thought that some Dems think it might be necessary (or that in fact it may be necessary given the attacks on Kerry) to drag that in makes me sick. I just looked at the link some one posted up above quoted Susan Estrich who said that things liek that would happen. But if there is somethign funny going on with those two, and it is an open secret, then there is a very serious double standard problem that needs to be addressed, even if doing so is ugly. But the very idea is sickening so I will think no more about it until I am forced to.
I was disappointed by the Democrat convention. I think that leaders need to trust the people to be able to think things through once they have the facts, and trust them to be able to distinguish negative personal attacks from reasonable critiques of the other side's policies. The Democrat convention was entirely too nice and happy. Why? Do we live in particularly happy times.
Trying to game scenario the optimal response is hopeless, since the opposition will attack no matter what you do. If Kerry is mild and reasonable in his response to attacks, then they will say that he is a wimp, and maybe is not responding more forcibly because he cannot. If Kerry gets angry and responds strongly, then they will say he is acting kind of like a wild-eyed crazy man, maybe even a psychologically damaged battle veteran who cannot really be trusted (sound familiar?). And maybe he is so mad because the charges are maybe really true and we hit a soft spot.
So Kerry, and Democrats have to accept the fact that that they will get hammered no matter what they do. So they need to stand up and make their best case in a strong but civil manner. If they had, they would have had a much better chance of forcing the Repubs to answer some awkward questions during August.

"By noon on September 11, 2001, it was clear to me that one of two wars had begun."

Your hasty judgement was completely wrong. No war, as defined by the U.S. Constitution, had begun on September 11, 2001.

Wars, as defined by the U.S. Constitution, are fought between the U.S. government and other governments.

The acts on September 11, 2001 were crimes, not acts of war.

"...an organization with very specific geopolitical goals."

Yes, their geopolitical goal is to have every government in the world run according to the precepts of their totalitarian form of Islam.

Totalitarianism is always just around the corner for everyone everywhere. It isn't an ideology, it is Pure Power. And people lust for Pure Power because, as Bush himself said, "If I were a dictator, it would be easier".

I don't recall exactly when the first hard evidence started coming in, though it was within a couple of days, but from the moment I had gotten over the shock and started thinking about perpetrators, Al-Queda seemed obvious. The daring and particularly the multiple simultaneous attacks pointed that way. And that was certainly by noon my time.

hi

"we had begun a war in which the insane terrorists of Al Qaeda and their ilk struggled against the Muslim nations of the world which had the task of suppressing them in which we provided valuable aid, assistance, and occasional muscle; "

As in Pakistan, say? You think that's working out okay? They're approach to Tora Bora deliver the goods for you?

"or we had begun a war in which we fought against a substantial chunk of the Muslim world that viewed their duty as assisting Al Qaeda and their ilk"

As in Iraq, where we (as in, US forces themselves) actually laid hands on their target and brought him into custody?

You like having the US become a colonial power working thru local puppet/strongman governments?

So, starting on about 1300 on Sept 11, how would you have gone about persuading Syria, Iran, Libya and other Muslim nations to become our allies in the law-enforcement-effort against terror?

[please, email me xoring@mail.ru if you don't need this info anymore]

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