From Bloomberg:
AFL-CIO President John J. Sweeney addressed the afternoon labor rally outside the Garden. "We're here to hold President Bush accountable for the promises he made to us four years ago,'' Sweeney told the crowd. "He promised to create five million new jobs, and so far he's six million short.''
I am still amazed at the Bush administration's decision two years ago not to propose a real and serious employment-generating fiscal stimulus program. I remember listening to a not-too-bright Deputy Assistant Secretary of Commerce in early 2003 explain why the dividend tax cut would boost employment: "It's not just a growth program, it's a jobs-and-growth program." That's as coherent as he got.
Posted by DeLong at September 4, 2004 12:06 PM | TrackBack"real and serious" from this bunch? Only if it involves screwing all but the top 1/2%!
Posted by: Palolo lolo at September 4, 2004 12:46 PMDespite almost two decades of evidence they continue to believe their own propaganda.
Thus, they really believed that their policies would generate a very strong economy.
Do not bother them with the facts, their mind is made up.
Bush Senior got it right when he called it voodoo economics.
Posted by: spencer at September 4, 2004 01:48 PMthe dividend tax cut
I am sure I just read that dividend increases are basically not happening any more thatn before the dividend tax cut.
Posted by: me at September 4, 2004 02:02 PMThe last time this nation was in shape like this there were significant public works programs which left behind things which enriched and continue to enrich the life and spirit of the nation. I live near the Blue Ridge Parkway and there is no finer monument to the value of public works.
Posted by: stumpy at September 4, 2004 02:12 PMSeems high, "6 Million short", but there are worse estimates. And from main stream economists too.
Kasriel at NorthernTrust (Sept 3 weekly post) claims that we are about 10 Million short:
http://www.northerntrust.com/library/econ_research/weekly/
I wonder how things like the steel tariffs are going to effect union voting for Bush. I remember reading on dailykos.com about some internal union polling that suggested a greater percentage of union voters were going for Bush this time around, but I don't remember which industry it was and if it was purely a regional thing.
And since I've turned into something of a free trade whore lately, I must say, it would be nice if Sweeney were more of a realist on this issue. As Paul Krugman pointed out a while back, if there was a greater social insurance net - health care and what not - for those who are unemployed, then even a union Democrat could be in favor of free trade. Kerry's plan will cover far more people than Bush's plan will, and unless there's some hidden record, I don't think Kerry would be stingy with transition assistance. Sweeney could also attack Bush's tax cuts, which, because of the way they were designed, did little to help job creation, an area that would naturally concern him. Professor DeLong has discussed this, in case some of you forget.
The New York Times today has a story on the stress that modern-day workers endure, much of it from the decreasing social safety net, lack of health insurance, fear, etc. Good article.
Posted by: BayMike at September 4, 2004 03:47 PMStarting with the Reagan administration, and especially after Greider's interviews with Stockman, I've suspected that Republican administration economists use post-Keynesian language only as a cover while they restore McKinley-era policies. Did the federal government even compile employment statistics then?
Taxes as flat as possible, especially for investment income, are are an end in themselves. The distribution of growth and job creation, even growth itself, is secondary, so long as the administration can win re-election.
Didn't Mankiw have to disavow parts of his recently published introductory text before he could take over at CEA?
Economists like Prof. DeLong and Prof. Krugman encouraged all these trade agreements without putting the social safety net in place. They are more cupable than the Bushies, because presumably they are the friend of the worker and are intelligent enough to know what the correct policies are.
Posted by: Hi at September 4, 2004 05:38 PMHi,
Professor DeLong and Professor Krugman encouraged the social safety net all along and are not to blame. Are you going to vote for George Bush because DeLong and Krugman didn't get all they advocated? The better question is, are you going to continue making statements that only serve the purpose of deflecting the argument away from the true culprits? You must be a member of the Economic Boat Veterans for something-rather.
One of the things that is ticking off democrats most right now is that the main republican strategy is based on dishonesty and distortions. This is not a competition of ideas, it is an attack campaign that plays on peoples' prejudice and ignorance. The most galling part is that most Bush supporters perceive him to be honest and straight shooting - indeed that is one of his greatest strengths. I think that is also Bush's biggest vulnerability, and I think it can be exploited because they have put refutable lies on tape. The mass media isn't picking this up and they are unlikely to unless it is pushed on them - most likely through commercials.
I would start with Cheney's acceptance speech at the convention where he claimed that Kerry declared that we should only respond to terrorism after an attack. I know his wording was a little more clever than that but it is still transparent and it is clearly a refutable lie. This has been reported in the Washington Post and elsewhere, but only noticed by those who read the Post or Slate. Cheney is already viewed with suspicion, so I would start with him and with his more blatant lies. Play the tapes, show the lies.
If the lying meme can get started it is easy enough to make the link back to Iraq and to claims about the economy, but it has to start with lies that can be clearly refuted, and there are plenty out there.
Posted by: Louie at September 4, 2004 10:50 PMThey must have assumed that they so owned the national security issue, and could tweak the 9/11 exploitation and fear-mongering knobs as needed, that they could take a chance on an inefficient and unfair stimulus program that would reward their base.
Posted by: Bob H at September 5, 2004 07:04 AMStumpy is right on, a national public works program like the 1930's CCC would be great, awesome, except ... it's a different world.
US trade unions and public works contracting regulations would doom another attempt at WPA, unless it's specifically tied a jobs program.
But....
Remember, back in the 1930's, out-of-work folks had just come off the farms. They knew which end of a hammer to hit the nail with, and they were willing to work for $0.25 a day plus room and board, with no safety regs, if you can imagine.
Think about it. Read the Bonneville dam history. These guys were un-unionized and willing to work.
Today our choices are: Big Dig vers Star Wars, neither of which is worth the investment of our hard-earned tax dollars. They just don't pencil out. It would make more sense to just refund tax credits to home mortgage holders, and shut down Defense programs like the 20-year old still non-functional SDI, or NASP that are sucking up $100B's, yielding nothing except nice townhouses in Huntsville and Los Alamos for the white lab-coat on DoD welfare crowd.
Stumpy, Bush is right, cut taxes, but George, ya' gotta cut spending too, not increase the size of government (DHD), and fund runaway sci-fi weapons programs like Air Force 2025 and Future Warrior 2025. (Read that insane s&*t!)
Global oil production is about to decline soon, throwing the world economy's into cataclysmic change, while these Pentagon folks are throwing our money away as fast as they can tax us.
Once our money is gone, we'll never get it back!
"Hey, buddy, can you spare a dime?"
If you know what I'm saying, nod your head.
Imagine the immense retail and jobs boom if Fed tax credits of $500B a year wasted on DoD went toward paying down home mortgages! Holy s&*t! Call your Congressperson, tell them to defeat military spending, and increase mortgage credits.
It's the only way we will survive as a nation.
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