Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog

Here is a good assignment for your students, Prove that the tax cuts created jobs.

“So why is Porter reporting that the administration's forecast earlier this year was for 216,000 net new payroll jobs a month, rather than the real number of 320,000 or so?”

Well one answer is that some at New York Times are just plain sloppy. Or could it be that the NYT is not a reliable source of information? I know such a concept is heresy, but this is the newspaper that couldn’t tell that one its reporters was fabricating his stories. But I’m more concerned about what the NYT leaves out than its numerical illiteracy. Mark Steyn says that half of dead terrorists killed at the Beslan massacre were actually Arabs. According to Steyn you would never know it from reading the NYT who used the generic term “guerrillas.” Of course the BBC is no better, referring to these murders of schoolchildren as "Chechen separatists." It seems that these publications can’t use the term “Arab Muslim.” Shooting schoolchildren in the back is simply “asymmetrical warfare” practiced by “insurgents” who really have no choice because they are too weak to do anything else.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,10677436%255E7583,00.html

I know this is somewhat off topic, but isn’t the heart of the matter the willingness of the mainstream press to tell the whole truth?

At least the Times' Rock Paper Scissors coverages suffices.
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/05/fashion/05ROCK.html

The NY Times lost it some time ago. The Wall St. Journal has long had better business and economics reporting. Don't get me started on coverage of Iraq or politics or ...

The WSJ analysis is very slanted, too. They all are, as in the past, perfectly happy with depression level job creation. Why do rich and powerful people like depressions?

Cheap labor. Unions destroyed. Long working hours without compensation. Better quality workers who can't leave a bad job.

A perfect world from their point of view!

This is why the rich were perfectly pleased with the Great Depression. They hated Roosevelt and considered him to be a class traitor, you know. The NYT didn't like him back then, either.

In part it is due to the effectiveness of the Bush spin machine and echo chamber. Didn't Reagan prove the maxim that if it is reported in the press 5 times, it becomes a fact? How many times has the 216K number appeared in print?

Edward Hugh of A Fistful Of Euros (a strange name for a nice groupblog) has a topic (http://fistfulofeuros.net/archives/000800.php) on the august job(growth) numbers too. He focused on Bush deliberately not including the numbers in his speech to the Republican convention. The post , “Peek data” elicited some comments focusing on how the statistics should be interpreted. A man or woman using the name Dodo makes a fair effort to answer someone who suggests that Bush did a great job (on employment). Dodo even refers to Greenspan’s comments on the household vs payroll employment survey that I saw here before. (http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2004_archives/000343.html)
Somehow in IMHO the attention for the monthly growth numbers focuses on details too much.

On my own site (http://www.fransgroenendijk.nl/comments.php?id=P417_0_1_0) I put some graphs made with a new feature of the site of the US department of Labor. (http://www.bls.gov/data/)On a lot of subjects they have numbers on ther years 1994 through 2004. If you ask for the graph you get some broad outlines.

I (re)produced 8 graphs: on total non farm employment, total private employment, mass lay-offs, unemployment, the number of discouraged (no longer trying to get a job), multijobholders (%), average number of weeks unemployed and on part-time working for economical reasons.
They all give development for the years 1994 – 2004

Except maybe for the rate of people with more than one job, the trend in all pictures is clear: Bush did a lousy job.

As far as the administration is responsible for it of course, but if at one moment they claim responsibility for good numbers they can not deny responsibility at another time. Well, they can and do, but shouldn’t....

In other words, the broad outlines should be repeated and repeated and repeated.
(like Bush reading Pet Goat but that’s another subject)

While I don't think that the NYT is a completely reliable source, Mark Steyn is still less reliable. I'll wait for further information.

And the example Zarkov cites is a very weak one. The accusation Brad has made is that the Times has misrepresented a fact, not that it has left out a detail. Zarkov says he doesn't care about the difference, and actually thinks that the omission is more culpable than the error, but that's his personal psychology.

It's no secret that militant Arabs have been involved in Chechnya, as they were in Bosnia, but the fight there has been going on for years and the indigenous Chechnyans, who are Muslims themselves, have proved themselves capable of savagery quite independent of outside help. I suppose that this easily-correctable omission is a big issue for people who are promoting the battle of civilizations idea, who feel cheated of one more piece of proof that all Muslims are part of one big terrorist army.

I agree with Dr. Delong that the NYT is sloppy. But it is also wrong of him to imply that the weak labor market is George Bush's fault. We know America is not in or near a liquidity trap because the Fed is actually raising interest rates. Moreover, the speed of the tightening is being conditioned by the Fed's estimates of the fiscal thrust and the underlying trend of productivity growth. It follows that the rate of employment growth is not much influenced by fiscal policy, which is systematically neutralized by the Fed. Rather, employment growth is determined by the Fed's objective function, the error in their forecasts and chance.

I think it is fair for Delong to point out that the Bushies lie repeatedly about the purpose of their fiscal policy and about the state of the labor market. I am hard pressed to think of one thing about which the Republican leadership does not lie. (Hastert on Soros was the latest atrocity.) But Dr. Delong should rise above. This society needs truth tellers perhaps even more than it needs to get rid of George Bush, hard as that is to get my own head around.

And Dear A. Zarkov: I share your anger at the murders in Russia. But I think it is actually appropriate for the media to use neutral language when describing these acts. It is not up to the journalist to provide the moral content. That is up to you and me. Journalists have trouble counting behond 1000, as Delong's entry points out. Kant is probably beyond most of them, including the many moralizers.

When the American air force drops bombs aimed at Iraqi bad guys, some times they end up kiling innocent children. The pilots do not intend this result, and they take the risk only because our leaders believe it is worth bearing in pursuit of "higher" goals. But I think the journalists should describe those bombing raids in as precise and normatively-neutral terms as possible, while leaving it up to you and me to decide whether the lives of those children were worth spending in our pursuit of our interests, which may include the liberation (and now securing) of Iraq.

I believe that the same thing applies when our opponents use lower-tech means that result in the death of other children. You and I can distinguish between an intended and unintended death. And we know clearly whose side we are on. We need not insist on brainwashing from journalists to maintain our position.

I am not arguing for nihilism here. Quite the opposite. I am making the case for a morality that starts with contemplation and introspection rather than with tribalism and name calling. Having done the math for myself, I too would like to see murderers dead.

>>The WSJ analysis is very slanted, too. They all are, as in the past, perfectly happy with depression level job creation. >>

The WSJ news dept does a great job, IMO. The editorial side of the paper is on another planet.

Mallaby writing in the WaPo surprises me. His last few columns look as if he has stopped drinking the Kool-Aid.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A64623-2004Sep5.html

Karlito-Please don't post numbers if you cannot post the correct ones. You call the Bush record on jobs "hardly criminal". I call it hardly competent.

MacDonnell wants to let Bush off the hook as if fiscal policy is not a tool to use for unemployment when monetary policy is not working. Part of the job problem is loss of State revenue and cutbacks in State Jobs, projects and contracts, all of which have a multiplier effect on employment (mostly domestic).

I worked as a newspaper reporter at a small town daily for a year between college and law school.

I would not have made these mistakes.

It's hard to say why, but a lot of it had to do with my imagining myself, not as a would-be Woodward and Bernstein but rather as a would-be Fitzgerald and Hemingway.

I think we need to restore some sort of not necessarily left wing but decidedly left bank sense of Bohemianism in the press corps. A down-and-out sense that there are stranger things on heaven and earth than are dreampt of in our philosophies, and that it is the job of journalism to observe and report such things.

Anyhow, as long as the press views itself as an elite, insider institution - with special ties - if not to Deep Throat - then at least to whoever leaked Valerie Phlame's name - we're going to have more of this stuff.

supkis: “This is why the rich were perfectly pleased with the Great Depression.”

You’re right the “rich and powerful” do like cheap labor (to the extent they pay for labor), but they also like to remain in business. In the Great Depression in the 1930s, many businesses failed even with cheap labor. Many rich people lost their fortunes when the stock market crashed or when their business failed.

zizka: “The accusation Brad has made is that the Times has misrepresented a fact, not that it has left out a detail. Zarkov says he doesn't care about the difference . . .”

It’s not clear the NYT deliberately used the wrong number, how do we know it wasn’t a careless error? On the other hand, their omission Beslan massacre does seem deliberate because they do this kind of thing all the time. This kind of omission really does amount to a misrepresentation because it misleads the reader. And yes I do care about the difference.

Macdonell: “And Dear A. Zarkov: I share your anger at the murders in Russia. But I think it is actually appropriate for the media to use neutral language when describing these acts. It is not up to the journalist to provide the moral content.”

If the KKK bombed a southern Black Church, killing Black children and the NYT used such neutral language that it left out the “KKK” part and the “Black” part, so the headline ran: “Institutional building in Alabama suffers effects of explosive device planted by southern resistance fighters.” Would you be happy with that coverage? Or would you think the omissions were politically motivated and resulted in a significant distortion of the story? If half the perpetrators at the Beslan massacre were actually Arab Muslims, I want to know that because it means the incident involves international terrorism. I want to know that the same people killing children in Israel are also killing children in Russia.

“When the American air force drops bombs aimed at Iraqi bad guys, some times they end up kiling (sic) innocent children.”

I know you don’t mean it, but this is an outrageous comparison. It’s one thing to fight a military force and accidentally kill civilians. It’s quite another to make children the actual target. The Arab Muslim terrorists attacked a school, took hostages, threatened to kill children unless their demands were met. They ended up killing children and if we believe Steyn, they shot them in the back when they tried to flee.

Gerard McDonell: I have some comments and queries:

"We know America is not in or near a liquidity trap because the Fed is actually raising interest rates."

You seem to think that you can trust the Fed to have a better idea of what is going on than anyone else, and infer the truth about the economy by solving for it as an inverse problem, that is, as a function of the Fed's solution, given that you understand the Fed's reaction function to fiscal policy and whether that fiscal policy is appropriate. Is that what you are saying here? You seem to have a lot of faith that reality can be divined from whatever the Fed chooses to do.

"It follows that the rate of employment growth is not much influenced by fiscal policy, which is systematically neutralized by the Fed."

This seems inconsistent with the Fed's behavior up until this summer. How has the Fed neutralized fiscal policy over the last three years? Seems to me you could that their policy has been neutraizing only if you started with the assumption that the Bush tax cuts would be an ineffective fiscal stimulus in the first place.

"Rather, employment growth is determined by the Fed's objective function, the error in their forecasts and chance."

What is their objective function, or reaction function, or Taylor rule, or whatever you want to call it? How does their behavior relate to their beliefs about the causes of the 2001 recession? These questions are related to my comments on your comment on the previous macro post.

Zarkov writes: " It’s one thing to fight a military force and accidentally kill civilians."

When you drop a 500 pound bomb in a populous area, civilian deaths *aren't* accidental. They're expected. The best that could be hoped for is that most civilians in the area are under cover. But that's just a hope.

Jon H. “When you drop a 500 pound bomb in a populous area, civilian deaths *aren't* accidental.”

If the populous area has no military targets, then the bombing campaign is targeting civilians. It is in effect, a terror bombing. On the other hand, if an adversary chooses to locate military assets within a civilian area with the express purpose of trying to use the civilians to shield the military assets, it’s the adversary who is putting the civilians at risk. Worse still is the practice of putting “Red Cross” and other medical symbols on warehouses, barracks, and even offensive military installations. Fortunately this is rare, but the Taliban did it. However none of this comes close to the deliberate targeting of small children who cannot contribute to the war effort. This is the lowest of the low, and Arab Muslims have been doing it since the 1960s.

BTW according to Martin Gilbert (The official Churchill biographer) Churchill expressly ordered that Dresden should not be bombed. According to Gilbert it was Stalin requested allied field commanders to bomb Dresden. When Churchill found out about the deception he was furious. I learned this during about a four-hour interview with Gilbert on C-Span “Booknotes.” It was in answer to a call-in question as to why the Allies bombed Dresden. So according to Gilbert blame Stalin for Dresden.

September 6, 2004

An Economy That Turns American Values Upside Down
By BOB HERBERT - NYTimes

The Labor Department reported last week that 144,000 payroll jobs were created in August. Let's put that in perspective.

The number was below market forecasts. It was also below the number of jobs needed to accommodate the growth in the employment-aged population. In short, this was not good news. It's only by the diminished job-creation standards that have prevailed since the last recession that any positive spin could be put on last month's performance.

As the Economic Policy Institute tells us, in a book-length report it is releasing today: "The United States has been tracking employment statistics since 1939, and never in history has it taken this long to regain the jobs lost over a downturn."

In "The State of Working America 2004/2005," the institute shows in tremendous detail how those lost jobs and other disappointing aspects of the recovery are taking a severe economic toll on working families.

According to the institute:

"After almost three years of recovery, our job market is still too weak to broadly distribute the benefits of the growing economy. Unemployment is essentially unchanged, job growth has stalled, and real wages have started to fall behind inflation. Today's picture is a stark contrast to the full employment period before the recession, when the tight labor market ensured that the benefits of growth were broadly shared.

"Prolonged weakness in the labor market has left the nation with over a million fewer jobs than when the recession began. This is a worse position, in terms of recouping lost jobs, than any business cycle since the 1930's."

What is happening is nothing less than a deterioration in the standard of living in the United States. Despite the statistical growth in the economy, the continued slack in the labor market has resulted in declining real wages for anxious American workers and a marked deterioration in job quality.

From 2000 through 2003 the median household income fell by $1,500 (in 2003 dollars) - a significant 3.4 percent decrease. That information becomes startling when you consider that during the same period there was a strong 12 percent increase in productivity among U.S. workers. Economists will tell you that productivity increases go hand-in-hand with increases in the standard of living. But not this time. Here we have a 3.4 percent loss in real income juxtaposed with a big jump in productivity.

Keep criticizing the NYTimes, for it will improve the paper. But, the Times gets things far more right in far more depth with far more background than any other paper.

Zarkov, a careless error by a professional is almost as bad as a deliberate one. I think, in fact, that Brad is primarily accusing the Times of egregious sloppiness, and secondarily of being too willing to relay the Bush spin.

"On the other hand, their omission Beslan massacre does seem deliberate because they do this kind of thing all the time". Unsupported, and unclear what specifically you mean by "this kind of thing". In any case, you were changing the subject.

You're Patrick-R.-Sullivan-nutty on this one.

zizka: You might disagree, but I think the NYT has become a “politically correct” newspaper in the way it uses language, what it chooses to cover, and where the article appears in the newspaper. It’s so politically correct it became blind to fabricated news stories by a Black reporter. It’s so politically correct it ran something like 40 stories on the Augusta National Golf course, and spiked a sports column because it did not harmonize with the politics of the editorial page. http://slate.msn.com/?id=2074849

That’s what I mean by “this kind of thing.”

"313,000 is hardly enough even to keep up with population growth, which on its own adds about 150,000 people to the labor supply each month."

My simple analysis:

1500,000 x 3 = 450,000.
450,000 - 313,000 = 137,000.
"Harldly Enough" = Bullshit.

Simple. yes.

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