A good catch by the extremely sharp-eyed Tom Maguire:
Posted by DeLong at September 6, 2004 09:57 AM | TrackBackJustOneMinute: Proliferation Of A Bum Non-Proliferation Meme: So back to the Economist - what did they really say about Pakistan in their "buried lede"? Here we go:
Daryl Kimball, of the Arms Control Association, argues that a properly focused treaty could be monitored with confidence. He puts the reversal of past American policy by the Bush team down to three less high-minded motives: their aversion to multilateral agreements; the worries of Israel and Pakistan, two allies that want to keep the option of adding to their stockpiles; and opposition from the navy, which doesn't want inspectors snooping around to make sure that nuclear fuel for powering submarines is not diverted to power warheads.
From this, Matt [Yglesias] plausibly concludes that "We scuttled a treaty that will keep bombs out of the hands of terrorists so that Israel and Pakistan (!) can build bigger arsenals? ...Apparently so."
Well, as I said, it was a bum Economist article, so let's not pounce on Matt (yet). Here is what Daryl Kimball, of the Arms Control Association actually wrote:
So, what is really behind the reluctance to negotiate an effectively verifiable FMCT? The policy is yet another symptom of this administration’s strong allergy to multilateral arms control. It also reflects the Bush administration’s insufficient regard for the effect of Israel’s and Pakistan’s unregulated nuclear weapons programs on regional security and nonproliferation objectives. Pressing forward with a verifiable FMCT would help bring those states, along with India, into the nonproliferation mainstream and enhance efforts to ensure that other states comply with their treaty obligations.
Wait a second! Somehow we have drifted from underestimating the danger of the Pakistani and Israeli programs, in the Kimball formulation, to scuttling the treaty in order to accomodate them, by the time we get to Matt Yglesias. I think the Economist made most of that leap, and I can't see how they justify it. Look, if I read that Bill Clinton ate Big Macs in disregard of the cholesterol risk, and then report that Bill Clinton ate Big Macs in order to boost his cholesterol, I have gone awry. Normally the Economist is pretty good, so what happened here? I have no idea...
and yet - in defense of both MattY (huzzah!) and the Economist (ikh-ptooey!) - the Big Mac metaphor is misleading in the other direction and the original leap is not unjustified.
insufficient regard for one's own welfare is very different from insufficient regard for one's sworn responsibilities. the Bushies are not risking their own arteries, they are risking other peoples' lives. and in a way which is entirely distinct from their hypocrisy in claiming to be all about protecting America. it's their fscking *job* to protect America.
Kimball's description is merely less inflammatory than the Economist's, which is less inflammatory than Matt's. the difference is rhetorical and quantitative, not qualitiative...
it's a slippery slope, not a quantum leap, and a fairly short and shallow one at that...
Posted by: radish at September 6, 2004 12:29 PMDo we know that the _Economist_ article was based PURELY on the document that Kimball wrote, as opposed to talking to him and others, and picking up background material and just a general sense of priorities?
Posted by: Maynard Handley at September 6, 2004 01:24 PMDo we know that the _Economist_ article was based PURELY on the document that Kimball wrote?
Hmm, we don't know that. The Economist says that "Daryl Kimball, of the Arms Control Association, *argues* that a properly focused treaty..."; maybe they got him on the phone, and he went beyond his published article.
The three points they pick up are the points in his article, but that is hardly conclusive. They also put the three points in the same order, but again, so what - that just might be the way Kimball ranks them in priority, and remembers them in conversation.
OTOH, the "Economist mischaracterization" theory would explain the "buried lede" aspect of their story - if Kimball really believed we were aiding and abetting Pakistani proliferation, wouldn't he be a bit more vocal about it?
That said, I am pleased by the "sharp-eyed" praise - I like to think of myself as an inspiration to blind squirrels everywhere.
Posted by: Tom Maguire at September 6, 2004 03:14 PMThe gentleman who wrote that article in the Economist is dreaming if he thinks that a "verifiable FMCT" would help bring "these states, along with India" into the mainstream. India is not going to accept curbs on its nuclear programmes greater that what the U.S and other "nuclear state" signatories have. An acceptance of such curbs would amount to undermining Indian security. And if India does not accept curbs, it would be hard to expect Pakistan to, unless there is an use of force.
The whole non-proliferation effort by american policymakers is based on a premise of forcing curbs on nuclear programs on other states while retaining the american ability to manufacture enough weapons to blow up the world many times over. If a hypothetical state were to accept a curb or a denuclearization, and if it did choose to upset the GoTUS at some point, it is vulnerable to invasion and attack like Iraq was. Additionally, in South Asia, there is a declared nuclear state, China, which has demonstrated expansionist ambitions. It is impossible to expect that nations like India would give up their deterrent ability.
Posted by: vkr at September 6, 2004 09:55 PM
Largely concur with vkr above. It should be noted howevr, that India has a unilateral "no first use" policy - which both Pakistan and China do not
From: MY:
"Normally the Economist is pretty good...."
Didn't MY get the memo on the recent Economist bashing thread here?
Posted by: venky at September 7, 2004 01:35 AMMatt Yglesias actually got Kimball, the ostensible source for the Economist article, on the phone, and has updated thoughts. Sort of a split-the-difference answer, but props to Maynard Handley, above:
"...According to Kimball, and contrary to Tom's textual exegesis (which, I must say, is a pretty convincing exegesis), the Economist didn't get the story wrong. He has he thought my original post was over-interpreting the Economist article and that Tom's counter-response was underinterpreting the Pakistan and Israel angles."
http://yglesias.typepad.com/matthew/2004/09/fissile_materia.html
Well, Kevin Drum has now muddied the waters still further ( http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/archives/individual/2004_09/004645.php ):
"So Matt called Kimball himself, who said the correct interpretation was somewhere between Matt's and Tom's — whatever that means — and then made matters worse by pointing to yet another article as the 'official' ACA take:
" 'The concern is that negotiating a verification regime would prolong the talks by years, allowing countries currently producing fissile material without any restraints to continue to do so until a final agreement is reached.'
" 'India and Pakistan are believed still to be churning out fissile material for arms, while the status of Israel’s production activities is unclear.'
"This is now a third interpretation: the Bush administration's real concern is that verification would prolong negotiations, and far from torpedoing the treaty, they're trying to hurry it up. They'd rather get an imperfect treaty in place quickly so that countries like Israel and Pakistan are required to quit producing fissile material immediately."
At this point, I agree with Kevin that we had better follow the tradition of backlot softball teams everywhere and just Play It Over.
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