Stephen Haber comes up from Stanford to teach us about Mexican banking during the Porfiriato. He wants to talk about how Florencio Lopez-di-Silanes et al.'s blanket condemnation of related lending in developing countries is over-hasty. But we're not development economists, we're economic historians. We want Stephen to talk about finance and Mexican industrialization during the Porfiriato. All in all, an excellent show.
Noel Maurer and Stephen Haber (2004), "Related Lending and Economic Performance: Evidence from Mexico"
Abstract: There is a consensus among academics and policy-makers that related lending, a widespread practice in most LDCs, should be discouraged because it provides a mechanism through which bankers can loot their own banks at the expense of minority shareholders and depositors. We argue that looting is not a necessary outcome of related lending. In fact, related lending need not even produce an inefficient allocation of credit. The negative effects of related lending stem not from the practice itself, but from the institutional context in which related lending occurs. How bankers behave depends on the rules governing capital requirements, stock ownership by bank directors, and deposit insurance. We operationalize this argument by examining a banking system in which there was widespread related lending, but in which the other other institutions were constructed so as to give bank directors strong incentives to monitor one another to protect their capital and reputations--Mexico from 1888 to 1913. We find little evidence, during this 25-year period, of tunneling or credit misallocation. The banking system was, in fact, remarkably stable and manufacturing enterprises that received related loans performed at least as well as their competitors.
Noel Maurer is now an assistant professor at Harvard Business School...
Brad DeLong: "So you are saying that my view of Porfirio Diaz, that he and his cronies stole everything that wasn't nailed down, that my view--derived from too many viewings of 'Viva Zapata!'--is incorrect?"
Stephen Haber: "Say, rather, incomplete."
Mexican railroads: the state sets the rates. Not very private enterprises.
Analogies between Mexico under the Porfiriato and Indonesia under Suharto--very successful producing economic growth of a type.
Posted by DeLong at September 13, 2004 04:47 PM | TrackBack Isn't there somewhat of a parallel here to what happened a century later regarding how economists changed their tune when talking about Asian banking?
Up through the early mid 1990s many economists spoke rather glowingly of Asian style banking. Compared to the USA and Britain Asia had (we were told) 'relationship banking'. Asian banks had much closer connections to firms and industry, often cemented via interlocking boards. They had a whole bunch of practices that would be illegal in the USA but that at the time were often described as allowing banks to better 'monitor' the firms they were lending to. And indeed common sense suggests that you might just monitor a firm better if you have a pair of eyes and ears sitting on the board.
It was also kind of hard to argue that their banking system how it just happened to deliver the most spectacular sustained growth spurt in world history. Evidence also seemed to suggest that small and medium firms had better access to bank credit in Asia than in US or Britain.
But then came the Asian financial crisis and many banks failed. All of a sudden the benign sounding 'relationship banking' quickly got relabeled 'crony capitalism' and related lending. Suddenly we were lecturing the Japanese, Koreans and Indonesians on transparency and how they really ought to do more to emulate us instead.
The problem of course was that for the very same reason that a bank can better monitor a firm it is related to, it can also easily collude with that firm against an outside investor. When Asian countries threw their countries to huge new influxes of foreign capital the temptation to do so became irresistible. Chile's banking system collapsed in 1982 for rather similar reasons after a period of sustained growth in the late 70s.
The moral of the story might be that it usually doesn't get labeled 'crony capitalism' until after it collapses. Another lesson: always reform your banking laws (which includes getting rid of related lending) before you allow your banks to leverage up.
We people of shwi salute our new Harvard overlords. Hey Noel! Mentioned on DeLong! Woo hoo!
Posted by: Carlos at September 13, 2004 10:13 PMMexican railroads: the state sets the rates.
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