Matthew Yglesias has the horrible fear that we have made some major mistakes in the Global War on Terror--as, indeed, the Bush administration has. He is--rightly--scared that the Bush administration hasn't made the "investments in knowledge production" that we need. And he is scared that "We don't know what we're trying to do, we don't know if we're succeeding at doing it, and we have barely any idea how we're going to figure it out.... [W]hoever wins will still be faced with the reality that ignorance -- public, official, and elite -- is massive."
I think this last fear is simply wrong. America's military, intelligence, and foreign policy elites have a clear view of what the threat is, what to do, and how to do it. The most shameful thing about the Bush administration is how it has not listened to them over the past three years. But with a little luck we are about to adopt a sensible Grand Strategy for the 21st Century.
Posted by DeLong at September 13, 2004 05:25 PM | TrackBackmatthew: Three Years Later:
At the Republican National Convention in New York City just a little while ago, there was a great deal of romanticizing of 9-11-01. It was a day, we heard, that demonstrated the best in America. And in many ways it was. But 9-11 as a great triumph of the human spirit isn't the 9-11 I recall on the ground. I remember it as a terrifying, horrible, confusing day followed by several terrifying, horrible, confusing weeks.
I don't know how it felt out in the vast American Expanse to the south and west of New York City, but for those of us -- a very large proportion of America's political, intellectual, and media elite -- whose roots and physical existence are and were in the Boston-Washington corridor it was a time spent under seige. On the day in question, no one quite new what was happening. It seemed inevitable that there would be more attacks, and soon, very possibly on slightly lesser cities like Boston. And with the coming of the Anthrax Scare it looked like there were more attacks. The country was mobilizing for war in Afghanistan, a war that -- at the time at least -- raised the specter of being a real war of the old school with high casualties and all. And if that's what it took to win, most of us were prepared to accept it. But for those of us under 40 it was the prospect of something we'd never experienced and it was destined to occur in a far-off land of which we knew little.
And how would the Islamic world react? People feared at the time that there might be riots, revolutions, regimes toppled, the entire US-sponsored order in the Greater Middle East collapsing like the house of cards it in many ways was and is.
Fortunately, the worst didn't happen. The Afghan War was, in many ways, mishandled, but it wasn't the bloody affair many -- including many of its supporters -- thought it might be. The Anthrax thing fizzled out. The attacks of 9-11 proved not to be the beginning of a massive wave of lethal violence unleashed on the United States. The regimes held, the world order stood up. The Taliban was successfully removed. People danced in the streets of Kabul, broke out their old VCRs and Bollywood films. Events at home began to calm down. Soon enough one no longer saw HAZMAT teams on campus every time someone spilled some laundry detergent -- a white powder easily mistaken by the panicky for a bioweapon -- on the ground somewhere. People stopped wondering if Harvard University, like the World Trade Center, was a symbolic target of cosmopolitan American worthy of an al-Qaeda attack or whether, as a decentralized sprawling institution, it just wasn't appealing enough. I stopped hearing reports that high schools in New York were being evacuated in response to bomb scares. Advertisements and regular programming returned to network television. Forecasts of the end of irony in our culture proved false.
In a lot of ways, then, we emotionally overreacted to the attacks as a country. It turned out that many fewer people died at the WTC than it had first appeared. And it turned out that there were many fewer attacks en route than it had first appeared. Following from that, our policy response has been, in many ways, an overreaction. As a country we've thrown key elements of the rule of law aside and, in Iraq, basically abandonned all common sense in pursuit of a massively ill-conceived war.
At the same time, we've underreacted fairly massively. I spent the hours, days, and weeks after 9-11-01 on the campus of the major university, and for a little while it felt to me that great things my be afoot. America, clearly, was entering a new period of its national existence and there was going to need to be a national mobilization. As in the past -- and as, in particular, during the coldwar -- the universities would play a role. We needed knowledge-production on a massive scale. We needed to train a large new cadre of Arabic speakers, and smaller corps of speakers of Turkic and Persian tongues. The students of the 21st century would learn Middle Eastern history, Islamic thought, the geography of Central Asia. The children of the elite would end their decades-long alienation from all things military. There was going to be a great National Conversation about what it all meant and what to do about it.
It hasn't happened. The nation -- not only the "average American" but the permanent governing class here in Washington -- remains astoundingly ignorant about obviously relevant things. The national conversation is stuck on an astoundingly naive debate about whether "they" hate us because of our policies or because of who we are. Who "they" are seems barely examined. That "they" might -- like all the actual people I know -- be subject to complicated motivations that are not entirely transparent even to themselves, seems barely to be considered. People have almost no idea what al-Qaeda actually is, and the sort of people I work with -- the sort of people whose job it is to be aware of what is known and what is disputed among the experts -- have almost no familiarity with the contours of the controversy. People -- well-informed people even -- are wracked with confusions between Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Ayman al-Zawahiri. Their names aren't even really similar. I only learned a few weeks ago that "Abu" is not a first name at all, but rather something akin to a Russian patronymic working in reverse. The fact that October 2001 through February 2002 proved not to be the disaster many feared has lulled the nation into a false sense of complacency. People don't realize that 9-11 has, in fact, been followed up by a fairly massive wave of violence, albeit violence that's largely occurred outside the United States of America.
Don Rumsfeld wrote a while back that we not only don't know if we're succeeding in the war on terrorism, we don't even have metrics of success. And he was right. We get jammed up in a conversation about whether the GWOT is "really" a war, and don't talk about the fact that whatever it is (I think "war" is a serviceable term) we don't really know who it's directed against. We don't know what we're trying to do, we don't know if we're succeeding at doing it, and we have barely any idea how we're going to figure it out. We're in the midst of an impassioned political campaign in which I -- like many others -- have become, somewhat against or wills and intentions, a fairly active (albeit fairly unimportant) participant. But whoever wins will still be faced with the reality that ignorance -- public, official, and elite -- is massive. Confusion is still as widespread as it was on 9-12-01 but back then we at least felt confused. Like Socrates we knew, to some extent at least, what we did not know. Now the worst are filled with passionate intensity. The ratio of unknown unknowns to known unknowns is frighteningly high.
I'm afraid. Not in the panicky way I was afraid three Septembers ago, but a deeper, less intense but more profound fear that we may have made some horrible mistakes and we have barely any idea what to do about them.
Scott Plous & Philip Zimbarto wrote "How Social Science Can Reduce Terrorism" in the Chronicle of Higher Education (9/10/2004):
http://chronicle.com/free/v51/i03/03b00901.htm
Excerpt:
First, studies suggest that, compared with the general public, terrorists do not exhibit unusually high rates of clinical psychopathology, irrationality, or personality disorders. As John Horgan points out in the opening chapter of Terrorists, Victims and Society: Psychological Perspectives on Terrorism and Its Consequences (Wiley, 2003), edited by Andrew Silke, the idea of a "terrorist personality" rests on unsteady empirical, theoretical, and conceptual foundations. Indeed, because terrorist cells require secrecy, terror organizations frequently screen out unstable individuals who might compromise their security.
Nor do terrorists differ greatly from other people in self-esteem, religiosity, socioeconomic status, education, or personality traits such as introversion. Nasr Hassan, who spent years studying Palestinian terrorists, put it this way during a lecture she gave in 2002: "What is frightening is not the abnormality of those who carry out the suicide attacks, but their sheer normality." Thus far, behavioral research has found only one psychological attribute that reliably differentiates terrorists from nonterrorists: a propensity toward anger.
In the words of a recent National Research Council report titled "Terrorism: Perspectives From the Behavioral and Social Sciences": "There is no single or typical mentality -- much less a specific pathology -- of terrorists. However, terrorists apparently find significant gratification in the expression of generalized rage."
Beyond various sociopolitical, economic, and religious objectives, one of the most common motivations for joining a terrorist organization is the desire for revenge or retribution for a perceived injustice. Many terrorists report that acts of violence committed by police officers, soldiers, or others are what led them to join a terrorist group. Studies by Ariel Merari and others have found, for example, that Palestinian suicide bombers often have at least one relative or close friend who was killed or injured by the other side.
In addition to harboring intense anger over perceived injustice, terrorists differ from the general public in their demographic composition. Although exceptions exist, terrorists are usually males between 15 and 30 years of age -- the same population most likely to commit violent crime in general, and the demographic group least likely to be deterred by the threat of physical force.
Perhaps for those reasons, studies suggest that large-scale military responses to terrorism tend to be ineffective or temporarily to increase terrorist activity.
...
Although every situation is different, researchers have found that military responses to international terrorism can unwittingly reinforce terrorists' views of their enemies as aggressive, make it easier for them to recruit new members, and strengthen alliances among terrorist organizations.
Posted by: Richard in Cambridge at September 13, 2004 05:43 PMBrad,
I'd disagree with you that the elite has much of a clue as to what to do. I do think that most agree that what we are doing is not what we should do, but from where I stand, on the fringes of the counterterrorism establishment, there is no one who is confident about much except that our current strategy sucks. The elite would benefit greatly from an environment where discussion of what we do not know were much more open. Right now, though, confusion and uncertainty are equated with a lack of patriotism and a softness on terror.
I'd say Yglesias 1, DeLong 0.
The elite doesn't even have a clue what to do about George Fucking Bush.
Posted by: zizka / John Emerson at September 13, 2004 06:22 PMDitto Frank Wilhoit and zizka. Iraq will end badly, it will certainly not be better off and neither will we. Humpty Dumpty has fallen, but alas, he is all of us and not simply our benighted so-called leaders.
Posted by: Barbara at September 13, 2004 07:08 PMWTF: Boston "a slightly lesser city" than New York? We're not talking slightly here. This is a difference of kind, not magnitude. What Mathew-part-of-America's-intellectual-eite really meant was "Cambridge, a slightly lesser (than New York) city." Hahahahahahahaha!
Posted by: kaleidescope at September 13, 2004 07:10 PMOverreaction? Definitely. Underreaction? Well, if nobody in the corridors of power has a clue, as several here have said and certainly seems to be the case, it's their own damn fault. They have plenty of trustworthy brainpower to call on if they want it, but they don't want it. They could bring lots of people with all different kinds of ideas together to hash this out. Like, you know, a seminar. But that would be too much like effete academia. Instead, those nobodies in the corridors want to run the rest of the world the way they run their own country. That would be on the mushroom theory, forced-cultivation mode.
Two quick stories: Adult student, good student, good guy, a day or two after 9/11 says "We need to get Saddam." Is impervious to any idea that Saddam might not actually have had any relationship to the event. It didn't matter. The need to see things explode was too overwhelming, and Afghanistan was not big enough.
Second story: Almost exactly a year ago, local talk jock who was at one time a decent man took a call from a guy who wasn't happy about the Iraq war. Caller says "People died over there." He means civilians in the bombing and other operations. Talk jock says "Thank goodness they did-- and not enough of them."
The lost opportunity here is incalculable. But making sure it was lost has, funnily enough, worked to someone's political advantage.
I have been told that if bush is actually elected this time, our future is economic warfare waged by the Europeans and the Asians. They can't live with this.
There is some very good thinking on the war effort. Good execution of the peace, or stabilization, is what is missing.
It simply isn't reasonable to expect a proud and anti-feminist culture to simply say, "Oh, mistake!", and love American boots on the ground. Yet, the fact is that most terrorist attacks post-9/11 are where the attacks of the 1970's had taken place. If the terror is centered in the Mid-East, where the real political problem is, that argues for progress.
And yes, there is a strategy. Spend 160 minutes with this C-span program that aired on 9-4-04, and learn about it in depth.
rtsp://video.c-span.org/60days/ap090404.rm
I think there is a fair amount of concensus that the proposals from the 9/11 Commission are a good starting place. I think everyone who thinks about this stuff agrees that the principal problem is the angry young men, who generally are the problem in every society where they are not integrated into the adult world of work and responsibility.
Face, honor, a place in society, a girlfriend or a wife, all these are route to civilizing the young. They require a working society. There are too few of these in the Muslim world.
Of course, we must face those who have crossed over with strength, including killing them, in ones or twos, or in units where possible. But the long run future is in the unconverted. A job goes a lot farther, and is a lot cheaper, than a battalion.
Posted by: masaccio at September 13, 2004 07:42 PMScore one for each. The Bush crowd ignored advice and plans from the State Dept., the intelligence organizations and the military. The professionals did know what to do but it wasn't sufficiently cheap or flashy for the Bushies.
And we did overreact as a nation--so emotionally that we were bawling basket-cases ripe to be hoodwinked by the administration. At the same time, we've allowed the real work of security to be underfunded and ignored. Bush can't strut on a flight deck and be a war preznit if the nation is concentrating its resources on improving interdepartmental computer compatibility, developing cargo-screening methods, devising security measures for infrastructure, training and deploying covert agents, and tracking the trail of money.
The mistakes we've made may well be irreparable. We had a chance with Afghanistan to do things right, and we blew it. Now we've made so many more enemies and lost so many friends that we risk provoking increasingly lethal attacks into the foreseeable future. At the same time, we are bleeding blood, treasure and civil liberties. The United States of America could easily be on a glide path to ruin within a generation.
Posted by: SG at September 13, 2004 07:44 PMJust thought I'd mention Bob Herbert's newest:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/13/opinion/13herbert.html
More than 80 percent of the population of Detroit is black. This is very well understood by John Pappageorge, who is white and a Republican state legislator in Michigan. "If we do not suppress the Detroit vote," said Mr. Pappageorge, "we're going to have a tough time in this election."
Oops! Republicans aren't supposed to actually say they want to suppress black votes. That's so retro. It's so Jim Crow. This is the 21st century, and the thing now is to do the dastardly deed, but never ever acknowledge it.
...
In Texas, students at the predominantly black Prairie View A&M University were threatened with arrest by the local district attorney, a Republican, who suggested they were not eligible to vote in the county in which the school was located. This was nonsense. Students can vote in their college towns if they designate the campus as their home address. The whole point, of course, was intimidation. The threat of arrest is an excellent way of deterring someone from voting.
There are endless stories of attempts to discourage blacks from voting. Few get substantial publicity, so this is not seen as a big national problem. It deserves a brighter spotlight. When duly registered blacks are improperly challenged at the polls, or Florida tries to use a patently discriminatory voter felons list, or black votes are criminally tampered with or simply not counted at all - something should be done.
The number to call is 1-866-OUR VOTE.
Posted by: Inez Korn at September 13, 2004 08:05 PMThere are three possible responses (doing nothing not being one):
1. Change the Face of the Middle East. (NeoCon)
2. Kill every RIF leader and main henchman we can find (Israel)
3. Glass the place.
If we fail at the first two points the time will come when the last is the only way(Ringo's option zero).
Posted by: Jody Dorsett at September 13, 2004 08:28 PMInez Korn, do not worry about the ability of the Black churches to overcome Republican efforts...in Philadelphia they got out over 100% of the Vote!
Some people talk about the Daily Maxim...the true believers live it.
QM
Posted by: Jody Dorsett at September 13, 2004 08:31 PMI've a radial theory, so bear with me, and while I straddle the border of relevance, please avoid crossing it.
I believe America is in this situation because it really has no idea what an attack IS. I mean a real attack. I mean, not a 9/11 attack, I mean a full, blown-out invasion.
9/11 was bad, yes. But half my family remembers a time when 100,000 Marines stormed an island of 20,000 half-starved garrison troops left to die by their leaders. Two cities nuked, others firebombed. Casualties in the MILLIONS.
America hasn't been invaded since 1814. It hasn't seen major homeland casualties since 1865. In every war since, we've lost one of our own to about 1000 for everyone else.
This is a good thing, as far as America's concerned. No one deserves a steamrolling, I am NOT rooting for the bad guys, and I was in Boston on 9/11 -- just as scared as everyone else. But, as a Japanese American, it was impossible for me not to put 9/11 in perspective with a war that made that day look like a walk in the park.
What I'm saying is, it shouldn't take World War III for Americans to wake up. 9/11 should've been enough. I hope so; I don't want more. But seeing Americans function in only two modes -- complacency and hysteria -- I fear for the future. America's foreign policies won't change until we literally see foreign tanks rolling into our cities.
Posted by: Dragonchild at September 13, 2004 08:43 PMInez, I think that Jody is engaged in piece-of-shit-simulating activity. Pay her no mind, and whatever you do, don't step on her.
Posted by: zizka / John Emerson at September 13, 2004 09:01 PMJudy is wrong that changing the face of the Middle East is only a NeoCon approach.
There are many ways the US could have done that without sending in the Marines.
Eg, deciding that US will fund only those regimes that obey U.N. resolutions (now _that_ would be a dramatic change!). Eg, you could have taken the 200 billion the US is spending on Iraq and spent it on humanitarian aid (including education programmes) to Lebanon, Syria and Iran.
But no, you gotta shoot people to make'em do what you want. Right?
I despair.
Dragonchild, in general I would agree that it's important that we haven't had anything like the experience, over several generations no less, of Russia, Germany, Japan, China, or even Paraguay in the War of the Triple Alliance (half the population dead), not since the Civil War in which about a quarter of the military-age white males of the South died in uniform. Real human-made devastation isn't within the national experience of most of people born and raised here. However, going back as far as the mid-17th century and the English Civil War, immigrants have brought it with them.
But even more important, I think, is the deep and abiding ignorance of so much of the populace about the rest of the world. Take Iraq: it has about 25 million people, give or take. We're more than 10 times that, our economy is tons more than 10 times Iraq's economy, and our military power is orders of magnitude beyond anything Iraq ever had. Most people have and had no idea of the disparity. Most have no idea of the disparities between the US and Canada. Or Norway. They're countries, we're a country, it's all somehow the same, and Iraq is a worthy enemy.
There are lots of other things going on, such as those having to do with Protestant narratives. But we can start with this appalling ignorance about the place of the US among other countries of the world.
"But with a little luck we are about to adopt a sensible Grand Strategy for the 21st Century."
Pick up gun, point at foot, pull trigger?
...is that a cheap shot?
Posted by: Randolph Fritz at September 13, 2004 09:42 PMdragonchild,
I agree with the sentiment that Americans are mile tall babies who have no idea the havoc they can wreak on other people.
However, as a person of Chinese descent, I feel duty bound to remind you that there was a reason for what happened to Japan in 1943-5, and I firmly believe (along with most people in Asia and Europe) that it's a good thing that Americans used its military might to force the Japanese government to surrender in 1945. Don't revise history to only include the victimized bits. Overall, the U.S. motives and its action during and after WWII were good.
Being on the receiving end of aggression is not fun, but that doesn't mean the aggressors can never pursue it to prevent greater aggression.
Posted by: astrid at September 13, 2004 10:28 PM"America's military, intelligence, and foreign policy elites have a clear view of what the threat is, what to do, and how to do it." -- Delong
Then WTF are we doing in Iraq? I'm with Zizka and the others on this one, Professor. You need some supporting evidence for this view.
Before the war, Kissinger wrote an Op-Ed about the future problems in Iraq, where he talked about the "Sunni majority." William Safire and others made similar mistakes. It's about time our elites admit what has become ovious to everybody -- that they don't know what they're doing. Kudos to Matt for helping to start the discussion.
Posted by: Carl at September 13, 2004 10:53 PMhttp://www.cafepress.com/marxwaswrong
Posted by: marx is dead at September 14, 2004 12:05 AMIt ain't the War on Terror, it's the War OF Terror.
Get used to it, America.
We can't really evaluate whether the people at State (or the CIA or DIA or USAID for that matter) have a clue or not when we know that their plans were thrown out and replaced by Rumsfeld, Wolfowitz and Feith's fantasyland. The people I know who worked on some of these issues are considered among the top experts in the world in their fields. The part of the U.S. military that has actually been getting things done for the last 40 years has worked with NATO and the U.N. extensively during that time. Well, too bad about that.
Posted by: me2i81 at September 14, 2004 01:14 AM"I feel duty bound to remind you that there was a reason for what happened to Japan in 1943-5."
Remind me? Good gawd, how many books are out there that practically orgasm over the good? I don't deny the good. What made you blindly assume so? That I dared to point out the bad?
Even WW2, for all the good it did, was a miserable, bloody mess. "Not fun"? That ridiculous understatement proves my point: Perception of war is perversely skewed in favor of glorifying its phyrric benefits. If anything, the best that can be said of war is that it's analogous to chemotherapy -- desperate destruction for a CHANCE to recover from what APPEARS to be an otherwise incurable condition. And yes, it SOMETIMES works. So? Saving two patients 60 years ago does not exonerate a historically abysmal failure rate!!
Posted by: Dragonchild at September 14, 2004 01:57 AMI am very concerned about the seeming loss of clear directions and strong voices for the John Kerry campaign. Where are the clear messages, repeated again and again, on domestic and foreign policy? Why are the candidates not more active? Where is John Edwards? Is Ohio the only state of importance to Democrats? I am worried.
Posted by: lise at September 14, 2004 03:35 AMWhen is John Kerry going to focus our attention on building our foreign alliances to the strength we have known? Where are the foreign policy stances we can relate to? Where is the coherent plan for our domestic security? Why are Boston and other cities losing ground on crime when domestic security is supposed to be so critical? Give us policy leadership, John Kerry.
Posted by: lise at September 14, 2004 03:59 AMThe heck with what Republicans are doing. Where are the Democrats? Where is the Kerry-Edwards campaign?
Posted by: Ari at September 14, 2004 04:26 AMThe "children of the elite?" "The major university?" Could Matthew Yglesias be a bigger jerk?
Posted by: oh please at September 14, 2004 05:23 AMMatthew Yglesias is telling us that most Americans however well educated have spent all too little time learning about foreign affairs and America's foreign policy possibilities. I agree. We are detached enough that the Administration completely dominated our way of thinking about a war in Iraq that has profound iomplications. Our media was all too thoughtless, while it should have been clear that much more thought and debate was needed before accepting a radical departure in foreign policy.
Posted by: lise at September 14, 2004 05:59 AMThe dominant media has been disgraceful in investigating and clarifying foreign policy issues for our continuing discussion. John Kerry needs to at once begin to foster such a discussion.
Posted by: lise at September 14, 2004 06:16 AMRichard at Cambridge:
Thanks for posting the excerpt. I can't believe how neatly it lines up with my views. I've been saying all along that the central focus of our strategy has to be eliminating potential recruits for and sympathizers with al Qaida and other such organizations. And many, many analysts have lamented the fact that the Iraq invasion perfectly serves the recruiting needs of terrorist groups. Not only is Iraq a disaster in the details of the occupation, but it's also a disaster as a strategy to fight terrorism, which is what Bushco claim it is.
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