September 14, 2004

Wow! Francis Fukuyama Is Shrill!

Leading neoconservative Francis Fukuyama is shrill. The Bush's administration's latest Big Lie has pushed him over the edge, into shrill unholy madness. Fukuyama is not only shrill, he is the new Grand Heresiarch of the Order of the Shrill--as he asks the Bush administration, "Just what part of 'Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Fukuyama R'lyeh wagn'nagl fhtagn!' don't you understand?"

FT.com / Fukuyama: The Bush administration's failure to plan adequately for Iraq's postwar reconstruction was a big failure of policy, one that will greatly limit future US policy choices. The recent escalation in violence, with US deaths passing the 1,000 mark, underlines just how insecure the country is.... The long-term plan laid out by the Bush administration since the June handover of sovereignty in Iraq is straightforward.... Anyone who thinks this scenario will materialise is living in fantasyland....

Allawi's government faces dual insurgencies... Moqtada al-Sadr... Fallujah, now a base for religious extremists, seems but one of a number of areas where coalition forces cannot go. The US has, in other words, permitted the establishment of a new terrorist haven in central Iraq....

Equally serious is the lack of state capacity on the part of the new government.... If elections are postponed, leaving de facto power in the hands of militias, the next US president will face a critical choice: continue pressing for a unified Iraqi state, or seek a power-sharing arrangement based on agreement by the Kurdish and Shia communities, in which stability rather than democracy is the goal....

Heavy fighting and more casualties lie ahead, and [the] US force posture in other troublespots such as Korea is under strain. Washington can maintain current US troop levels in Iraq only through a covert draft of National Guard and reserve forces, the very people whose families form Mr Bush's political base....

The Republican convention outrageously lumped the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Iraq war into a single, seamless war on terrorism - as if the soldiers fighting Mr Sadr were avenging the destroyers of the twin towers... mismanagement of the war has created a new Afghanistan inside Iraq.... The Bush administration has made any number of foreign policy errors, particularly over Iraq.... But if Mr Bush is returned... the administration will have got away a Big Lie about the war on terrorism and will have little incentive to engage in serious review....

Posted by DeLong at September 14, 2004 07:19 AM | TrackBack
Comments

It seems David Brooks has not been told the Fallujah is a "no go" zone. He sights it as a shining example of success in todays column. Damn Facts ruined Bobos' fantasy.

Posted by: phg at September 14, 2004 07:38 AM

Juan Cole

US air strikes on Fallujah on Monday killed some 20 persons. The US military maintained that it was targeting safe houses of Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his group, Monotheism and Holy War. (Some are translating tawhid as "unity," but in Islam what is meant by tawhid is to "affirm the oneness of God" -- i.e. monotheism.) Local Fallujans complained that the air strikes hit the residential al-Shurta neighborhood, inflicting damages on apartment buildings and the markets. Hospital authorities later said there were 20 deaths, including women and children.

Posted by: Ari at September 14, 2004 08:08 AM

Now if Mr. (or is it Dr?) Fukuyama could just write an OpEd for the WSJ, we might be getting somewhere.

Posted by: Martin at September 14, 2004 08:10 AM

Juan Cole

Kudos to Robert Burns of the AP for taking up the issue of increased US reliance on air strikes on urban residential neighborhoods as a way of combatting the guerrillas now warring against them.

Burns writes:

' Loren Thompson, a defense analyst at the Arlington, Va.-based Lexington Institute think tank, said Monday the Americans seem to believe that airstrikes in Fallujah will wear down the insurgents and buy time for U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces to prepare for a ground assault in the weeks ahead. "But you have to wonder whether we're radicalizing the Iraqi civilian population" in the meantime amid claims - substantiated or not - that airstrikes are killing innocent people, Thompson said. '

Posted by: Ari at September 14, 2004 08:11 AM

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/14/opinion/14krugman.html?hp

Taking On the Myth
By PAUL KRUGMAN

On Sunday, a celebrating crowd gathered around a burning U.S. armored vehicle. Then a helicopter opened fire; a child and a journalist for an Arabic TV news channel were among those killed. Later, the channel repeatedly showed the journalist doubling over and screaming, "I'm dying; I'm dying."

Such scenes, which enlarge the ranks of our enemies by making America look both weak and brutal, are inevitable in the guerrilla war President Bush got us into. Osama bin Laden must be smiling.

U.S. news organizations are under constant pressure to report good news from Iraq. In fact, as a Newsweek headline puts it, "It's worse than you think." Attacks on coalition forces are intensifying and getting more effective; no-go zones, which the military prefers to call "insurgent enclaves," are spreading - even in Baghdad. We're losing ground.

And the losses aren't only in Iraq. Al Qaeda has regrouped. The invasion of Iraq, intended to demonstrate American power, has done just the opposite: nasty regimes around the world feel empowered now that our forces are bogged down. When a Times reporter asked Mr. Bush about North Korea's ongoing nuclear program, "he opened his palms and shrugged."

Yet many voters still believe that Mr. Bush is doing a good job protecting America.

If Senator John Kerry really has advisers telling him not to attack Mr. Bush on national security, he should dump them. When Dick Cheney is saying vote Bush or die, responding with speeches about jobs and health care doesn't cut it.

Mr. Kerry should counterattack by saying that Mr. Bush is endangering the nation by subordinating national security to politics.

Posted by: lise at September 14, 2004 08:29 AM

If Kerry were smart, he'd go after that gratuitous lumping together of 9/11 and Iraq and show how it has endangered us.

You can beat the rattlesnake and you can avoid the sleeping bear, but turn them into a team and you're in deep trouble.

Posted by: Bean at September 14, 2004 08:32 AM

Linking 9/11 to Sadaam only makes sense if one believes that the United States' foe is not Al Quaeda or Wahabbism, narrowly conceived, but the entire Arab world or all of Islam, broadly conceived.

Perhaps the smartest thing Bush did following 9/11 was to assert that the United States foe was not Islam but rather a bunch of extremists. Indeed, one of the few virtures of the concept, "War on Terror," is that its scope could include non-Muslims such as the IRA.

But Bush's actions since then has belied this. If he ever was serious about this, he clearly no longer is.

The problem with a broader war against Islam - besildes the obvious point that there are a billion of them - is that they are esconced within the Eurasian landmass. Numerous would-be conquerers, from Charles XII of Sweeden to Napoleon to Hitler have been overwhelmed by the vastness of the project. Perhaps the only one to succeed was Alexander the Great - and that was largely because his own troops finally mutineed and forced him to quit while he was ahead.

Posted by: Ahab at September 14, 2004 08:40 AM

Bean:"If Kerry were smart, he'd go after that gratuitous lumping together of 9/11 and Iraq and show how it has endangered us."

Kerry's smart, so why is he acting so dumb? I'm beginning to wonder if he isn't a Republican plant pretending to run against Bush -- sort of like Mexico, where the ruling PRI clique secretly gave money to opposition PAN candidates just to keep up the facade of a two-party system.

Posted by: Karlsfini at September 14, 2004 08:50 AM

Re:Fukuyama. Ya think?
Charles

Posted by: charles at September 14, 2004 08:51 AM

"Just what part of 'Ph'nglui mglw'nafh Fukuyama R'lyeh wagn'nagl fhtagn!' don't you understand?"

Voted best line for september 2004, competing for the year.

Posted by: yabonn at September 14, 2004 09:02 AM

"the Americans seem to believe that airstrikes in Fallujah will wear down the insurgents and buy time for U.S.-trained Iraqi security forces to prepare for a ground assault in the weeks ahead."

Worked in Viet Nam didn't it?

Posted by: me at September 14, 2004 09:28 AM

Don't get shrill, get even.

Send a few bucks to ACT, and let's get a foreign policy worthy of America.

Posted by: Petey at September 14, 2004 09:43 AM

Richard Cohen is mighty shrill today:

The virtue of Kennedy's speech is that it makes clear that all the missteps leading up to the war and all the blunders afterward were not mere mistakes but the product of an ideology that had seized the administration and rendered it inept. The Bushies operated on an expectation of how things should be and not, as governments should, on empirical knowledge seasoned by strong cynicism. They so much believed that things would be as they wanted them to be that they embarked on a latter-day Children's Crusade. Where, oh where, were the adults?

Posted by: Marcus Sitz at September 14, 2004 09:55 AM

Kerry's intelligent and experienced, Karlsfini, but he's not street-smart and plain-spoken. The modus operandi of this administration and its supporters is manipulation on an Orwellian scale.

I'm not trying to reorder the political universe here, but I do think Howard Dean was much much more aware of the Bush strategy and knew how to cut straight through it. For that reason, Dean got a hugely positive response from many conservatives in my area. Ironically, Bush on the stump (see Gourevitch, 9/13 New Yorker) has the style of "cutting through the crap" even as he spews more crap. It's hard to respond to that, and it's getting painfully clear that Kerry just doesn't know how to deal with it.

The set-up is so deft that I'm not sure it can be defeated.

Posted by: Bean at September 14, 2004 10:00 AM


It's interesting, but not surprising, that this was published in the FT, a paper which has a certain degree of US readership, but largely has a foreign audience.

Posted by: Jon H at September 14, 2004 11:24 AM

Martin, there appears to be a battle raging amongst the Neo-cons, or Rad-cons as Robert Reich calles them, about the very matter that brad raises above. There was an Op-Ed in either the NYT or the WSJ, I forget whichone on this very matter.

Posted by: Karl at September 14, 2004 12:48 PM

If Bush were serious about the WoT in would give
Ben Laden a tax cut.

Posted by: spencer at September 14, 2004 01:25 PM

Rational observors "sans agenda" from all quarters can see the problems, guess at the causes and formulate remedies but exactly what percentage of the electorate does that represent?

Posted by: jim in austin at September 14, 2004 01:26 PM

We've been making a fundamental mistake comparing Iraq to Vietnam. That's the wrong historical metaphor.

Iraq is not Vietnam.

It's Chechnya.

As you read descriptions of our forces in Iraq, compare what you read to the history of Chechnya. Compare the end-games being proposed. Compare the stories written and the phrases used.

Bush did not return us to Vietnam. He has given us a new adventure -- in American Chechnya.

No wonder Bush felt a certain kinship to Putin.

George Bush -- the most incompetent president in the history of the Republic.

Posted by: John Faughnan at September 14, 2004 01:32 PM

Are any other PNAC signatories shrill? I didn't think that was allowed.

Posted by: Nat Irons at September 14, 2004 01:55 PM

Faughman,
I see your point.
The similarities are certainly there.

But, at least Chechnya has been a problem for Russia for a long time. Bush has created this Iraqi problem out of thin air.

Posted by: Andrew McManama-Smith at September 14, 2004 02:38 PM

The Vietnam problem, as an *American* problem, was likewise created out of thin air.

And Iraq is not an integral part of the USA as Chechnya is part of Russia.

Posted by: sm at September 14, 2004 03:40 PM

"But, at least Chechnya has been a problem for Russia for a long time. Bush has created this Iraqi problem out of thin air."
Posted by Andrew McManama-Smith

Showing Bush's Bold, God-Fearing Texamerican Leadership :)

Posted by: Barry at September 14, 2004 04:01 PM

Ahhh, just other day, I was thinking about Fukuyama and his thesis on end of intellectual history (right name??) that I read while I was at Cal. I was thinking, during Clinton days, that we were on our way to convert left-over non-believers of democracy and capitalism... and how I was very proud of America and how I would argue against people I met abroad who tried to trash American foreign policies. (Inevitably, I would say America has proven to be the best hegemon in world history and it will only get better since the Cold War is finished, i.e. no more attempts to assissinate heads of state or fund terrorists to make countries pro-West.)

And, how that has changed. Bush can blame only himself for exacerbating Krugman's Clash of Civilization, by his politics to polarize ('either you stand with us or stand for terror'). I could go on and on about this here, but I won't.

It's good to see that Fukuyama doesn't approve Bush.

Btw, will Kerry finally give us what he thinks and what are his plans to the common Americans? Most Americans don't like Bush and think America is headed in wrong direction. Republican attack on Kerry as a flip-flopper and liberal has worked. But, when will regular Americans finally see Kerry as a family man, American, and someone you like. And, when will we see his plans clear so that average American will see him as a viable alternative to the bad president we have?

"The big problem that Senator Kerry has right now is that he has not communicated to the people of Ohio exactly what his plans are," said Paul Tipps, a Columbus lobbyist and former state Democratic party chair. "This state is very much John Kerry's to win. But he hasn't done it yet."

Gore lost because he can't run his campaign well enough -even with 8 years of prosperity and peace under Clinton. If Kerry can't run his campaign well enough to get his vision out, he simply deserves to lose. And, really it's too bad.

Posted by: FSOA at September 14, 2004 04:44 PM

I wish it were not the case, but I think only a serious continuing deterioration in Iraq before the elections can drive Bush from office. It will have to be a general Iraqi uprising, maybe a Blackhawk with 20 aboard going down to drive it home.
Getting rid of Bush would be worth the cost in lives.

Posted by: Bob H at September 14, 2004 05:50 PM

Bean: "Kerry's intelligent and experienced, Karlsfini, but he's not street-smart and plain-spoken. The modus operandi of this administration and its supporters is manipulation on an Orwellian scale."

Bean, I agree with you on everything. Maybe we're all losing it, but I heard people talking yesterday about Kerry being a Republican tool. Are divided loyalties holding him back? So little is known of Skull and Bones. Maybe it's only an elite frat house. Still, members of secret societies honor conduct that places the group above everything but God, and the group believes it alone knows God's wishes. I think Kerry, unlike W, is an honorable man and likely to be true to his word. Who knows what oaths he has taken and feels he has to uphold.

For whatever reason, he campaigns like his hands are tied. Why?

Dean is more like Mike Tyson when Tyson was at his best.

Posted by: Karlsfini at September 14, 2004 06:24 PM

I wish it were not the case, but I think only a serious continuing deterioration in Iraq before the elections can drive Bush from office. It will have to be a general Iraqi uprising, maybe a Blackhawk with 20 aboard going down to drive it home.
Getting rid of Bush would be worth the cost in lives.

That's just nutty. I don't think anything is so worthwhile that we should be wishing for more American deaths.

Posted by: Guy at September 14, 2004 07:56 PM

It seems to me that Kerry simply can't trash the war in Iraq too much. Remember, he may actually win this election, and then Iraq becomes his problem. He has to think about troop morale, etc. He will have to ask troops to make more sacrifices, and as he himself once said, how do you ask a man to die for a mistake?

Posted by: Christo at September 14, 2004 07:56 PM

Oops, I forgot to indicate that I was quoting someone else's comment.

Bob H wrote:

>>I wish it were not the case, but I think only a serious continuing deterioration in Iraq before the elections can drive Bush from office. It will have to be a general Iraqi uprising, maybe a Blackhawk with 20 aboard going down to drive it home.
Getting rid of Bush would be worth the cost in lives.<<

That's just nutty. I don't think anything is so worthwhile that we should be wishing for more American deaths.

Posted by: Guy at September 14, 2004 07:59 PM

Either BC or KE, we (US) lose.
Two sides of the same fatback,
twin engineers on a trainwreck.

Iraq's tear in the side of our
Ship of State is a mile wide,
and bone cold water is pouring
into NYC financial boilerrooms.

At any moment, foreign investors
will pull the plug, the nose on
DJIA will drop, the stern on CPI
will rise, and we will discover,
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as we rush down into the watery
grave of an abyssal $1T deficit.

Giving, "swims with the fishes" a
whole new panache for GWB's memoirs,
as he rewrites history once again:

"It's all Kerry's fault!"

Posted by: Tante Aime at September 14, 2004 09:51 PM

why dont fukuyama and all the other recanting neo-coldwarriors just commit harakiri to prove remorse. Or take a man's way out and endorse kerry. make fukuyama prove his regrets before accepting him into the order of the shrill.

Posted by: paulo at September 15, 2004 06:10 AM

FUKUYAMA IS A FLIP-FLOPPER !!!

Fukuyama then:

PNAC group-think letter to Bush (September 20, 2001) It may be that the Iraqi government provided assistance in some form to the recent attack on the United States. But even if evidence does not link Iraq directly to the attack, any strategy aiming at the eradication of terrorism and its sponsors must include a determined effort to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. Failure to undertake such an effort will constitute an early and perhaps decisive surrender in the war on international terrorism.

Fukuyama now:

The Republican convention outrageously lumped the September 11 terrorist attacks and the Iraq war into a single, seamless war on terrorism - as if the soldiers fighting Mr Sadr were avenging the destroyers of the twin towers...

====
With advisors like these, one can not blame Bush.

Posted by: MarcinGomulka at September 15, 2004 07:51 AM

Tante Aime takes particularly Naderly opinion. ONe that is beyond defeatist to the point of Vichy-ness. Barf on you.
Kerry's biggest problem is that he is, like Al Gore, smarter than the narcissistic pinheads of American media, and don't they know it. If you want to be President of These United States, you Have to Talk Like You are Talking to Retarded Children. Caps on first letter as a pronunciation guide. He is a war hero who denounced the war he fought in. Very zen. W is every chemical damaged barstool warmer in every dive bar in America but for one thing-inherited wealth and an unquenchable thirst for power. That's why so many serial killers, rapists, and child molesters are Republicans-a dysfunctional need to exert their will over others, often through lack of self esteem. Because W never had to suck up his own mistakes, he never developed that self esteem that allows many Americans to go on despite hardships. Real Americans say, Yeah, I fucked up, but I'm gonna get another job and get us a double wide to live in next time. W has just been coddled and mommied to death. Kerry went out and did the work-he could have used connections to schmooze his way into a life of ease like W, but he became a politician, which is a hella shitty job. Served his community and our nation again in the senate, broke the BCCI and Iran Contra mess and tried to get a handle on some things. It's a crapshoot but he did pretty good, on the whole. W is probably bored with being president now anyway, and if it is anything like his air guard tour, he will just wander away and start doing something else pretty soon anyway.

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While I agree with much of the above, it seems to me that the problem with Kerry is simple. He talks too much, he intellectualizes, he gets himself in trouble. He needs to attack Bush on all fronts, vigorously and if necessary nastily. But in sound bites! And just like Bush, who does it brilliantly, he must "stay on message". Every day, and on every occasion. Enough rambling talk. God knows there are sound bite topics aplenty to discredit Bush and show the American public what a dangerous liar Bush is. But he, Kerry, either cannot or will not.

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