September 14, 2004

FOMC Minutes: The Late Greenspan Fed

The FOMC's recent discussions of oil prices center on the impact of higher oil prices in reducing aggregate demand, and barely mention the impact of higher oil prices in raising inflation. Inflation now is low, and the FOMC seems to maintain as an undiscussed background assumption the belief that inflation expectations are also low and anchored near zero.

This is, I think, the most interesting thing about the late-Greenspan Fed. He has so much credibility as an inflation hawk that he simply doesn't have to worry about what monetary policy moves over a one or two-year span do to alter people's perceptions of the Fed's tolerance for inflation. As a result, he can be much more aggressive in trying to keep unemployment near its natural rate (whatever that is) than a central banker who would wish to and is known to wish that he could focus on stabilizing employment rather than controlling inflation. Such a central banker has to be constantly reassuring everyone that he is committed to controlling inflation, and so has very little room to respond to shocks--like shocks to oil prices--that might affect both.

Posted by DeLong at September 14, 2004 10:22 AM | TrackBack
Comments

I would say that expectations of inflation arise in only two areas: from the debasement our our currency, likely to be seen in a dollar crash, and from oil prices, which are largely dollar-denominated but will have to rise if the dollar falls.

Yet the prospects for declining growth are so excellent, now that the fiscal stimulus is shot and the pressures to cut the budget are strengthening.

Caught between declining growth and currency-driven inflation, it may not be necessary to raise interest rates to achieve the sort of crash Bush seems to be angling for.

Posted by: Charles at September 14, 2004 10:54 AM

Notice that the interest rate on the 10 year Treasury Note is 4.14%, after all the warnings about higher interest rates and even after the Fed has begun raising rates. No matter the rise in oil prices, nor the decline in value of the dollar, there is simply no inflation problem looming in the opinion of bond investors.

Posted by: anne at September 14, 2004 11:20 AM

Having noticed the case bond investors are making for low interest rates, by bringing the 10 year Treasury Note to 4.14%, I have just been reading Pete Peterson's book "Running on Empty." Reading Peterson, I assume that there will come a time when bond investors ask significantly higher interest rates to hold Treasury debt. We have severe private and public debt problems developing, and there is little likelihood that the problems will soon be effectively dealt with given the make up of Congress. So, I am sanguine in the near term and worried long term.

Posted by: anne at September 14, 2004 12:40 PM

I am officially declaring Josh Claybourn dot come a hate site. It calls Islam "a religion of war" (or at least puts "religion of peace" in quotes), and then the fellow lies about it. He also frames Muslims as responsible for Terre Haute Holocaust fire. If someeone were saying the same things about any other group, he would be in a big trouble. It is truly a shame there is such a double-standard in the blogosphere.
He may be a nice guy (although I don't know how someone could say that about a person he or she has never met in person), but he certainly shares the Christian Right's biases towards Muslims. (And he had his picture taken with Ann Coulter, for crying out loud!) And linking to pages bashing Muslims and then not adding comments, or simply having a title with "Islam: Kill! Kill! Kill!" implies at least a dislike for Islam.

Posted by: Myles Brand at September 14, 2004 01:09 PM

I am officially declaring Josh Claybourn dot come a hate site. It calls Islam "a religion of war" (or at least puts "religion of peace" in quotes), and then the fellow lies about it. He also frames Muslims as responsible for Terre Haute Holocaust fire. If someeone were saying the same things about any other group, he would be in a big trouble. It is truly a shame there is such a double-standard in the blogosphere.
He may be a nice guy (although I don't know how someone could say that about a person he or she has never met in person), but he certainly shares the Christian Right's biases towards Muslims. (And he had his picture taken with Ann Coulter, for crying out loud!) And linking to pages bashing Muslims and then not adding comments, or simply having a title with "Islam: Kill! Kill! Kill!" implies at least a dislike for Islam.

Posted by: Myles Brand at September 14, 2004 01:10 PM

Anne,

Is it really the private sector bond traders who don't care about inflation, or is it the foreign central banks who don't care about the monetary returns on their investments, as long as their buying of US treasuries helps to stimulate their domestic economies? After all, almost half of the treasuries are held by foreigners.

That said, I am with you in worrying about recent the flattening of yield curve and wonder what is it telling us ...

Posted by: pat at September 14, 2004 01:12 PM

Claybourn, if you would just apologize for once for swearing profligately and accusing me of deliberately distorting your views (it was NOT deliberate, just a misinterpretation) and then portraying yourself as a goody two-shoes Christian, I'd stop nagging you. Being the superstar of the Blogosphere does not give you a right to be so arrogant, such as to call someone a "twerp" (you too, Musgrave) and "of second grade intelligence." That is not what a nice person, does anyway. Nowhere in my analysis of your comments on Islam did I use those terms to describe you. (I didn't even use "bigot," for crying out loud!)

Posted by: Myles Brand at September 14, 2004 01:15 PM

Also, Musgrave, I never directly compared you to Bull Connor; that was a generalization. I truly apologize if that was the (incorrect) impression you received. The least you could do would be to reciprocate on using "twerp," even though it appears you did so a bit more directly.

Posted by: Myles Brand at September 14, 2004 01:18 PM

What's the deal with this Myles Brand character? Time to clean house on the comments section, apparently..

Posted by: Dan Ryan at September 14, 2004 01:20 PM

Here's a complete transcription of our "conversation," for you to judge for yourself.


I have found ample evidence to refute Josh's claim he is not at least somewhat anti-Muslim. (Google searches are a lazy person's tool, by the way. The Internet is far too vast for a Gogole search to be all encompassing.)
Here are the entries, listed by date and title. And this is from a search on JOSH'S SITE, of all places. Much more reliable than Google, that's for sure.

November 14, 2002--"Bush Takes on the Right"--notion of Islam as "religion of peace" severely questioned
March 13, 2003--"Dear God"--Ashoura Day singled out as typical Muslim practice
November 16, 2002--"Islam"--"Kill! Kill! Kill!" heading (with broken link, so there's no other evidence) says it all
November 19, 2002--"Warning: Boring history"--praises Islam of a thousand years ago, but claims that that Islam is long gone; unless someone invents time travel, this is akin to saying that the Muslims of today are violent
December 16, 2002--"Reason #5,789 to Invade Iraq"--compares mosque to WMD's
January 10, 2003--"Yeah, and Jews blew up the WTC too"--implies that Muslims carried out attack against Protestant church in Pakistan, as if only Muslims, not Christians, are capable of committing terrorist acts
March 8, 2003--Two-state "Solution"?--quotes from Israeli claiming that Muslim and Palestinian culture praises the killing of all non-Muslims, including Jews, and that two-state solution would be "disastrous"; does ask for rebuttals, but does not offer any himself
January 14, 2003--"Iraq"--links to site denouncing Pope's call for peace against Iraq and Muslims
December 27, 2002--"Islam"--links to U.S. Muslim slamming PBS series portraying Islam as nonviolent
February 17, 2003--"Omens in the Sky?"--suggests that Muslims took shuttle disaster as omen from God to do something bad
April 20, 2002--(no title)--mentions specific incident of anti-Semitic violence, but none of Muslim; site links to says killing Palestinians justified because "they're the bad guys"
April 14, 2002--"Take out Arafat"--claims Arafat heads Palestinian terrorist operations and is "as bad as bin Laden," and so should be assassinated
January 11, 2003--"What is an American?"--has article praising ability of Muslims to worship freely here and our charity to poor in Muslim world; adds later, however, that regrets having posted
December 5, 2002--"Persecutioon"--implies that only Muslims persecute people of other religions
January 1, 2003--"The Year in Review"--links to "A Muslims's Islam," arguing that Mohammed was violent and that as a religion, Islam incomparable to Christianity or any other "peaceful" religion
October 20, 2002--(no title)--people who are buying gas from Saudi oil companies support people "who are trying to kill us"
Feburary 23, 2003--"Understanding Your Opponents"--links to "An Example of Very Common Anti-Americanism from Muslim Pulpits" (link broken, but title says it all)
August 27, 2002--"Temple, Temple, On the Wall, Who's the Fairest of Them All?"--suggests that Sharon would be justified in taking Temple Mount for Israel
September 23, 2002--"Debunking Parrish"--disagrees with that "Muslims are not the only people to be caught up in increasing anti-Americanism"
October 30, 2002--"Freemasonry"--does acknowledge Muslim participation in fraternities with Jews and Christians, but suggests that one has to believe "in the right God" to be a Freemason, or, in other words, a Greek

There were several entries that did not include "Muslim" in the entry itself or in a comment made by Josh Claybourn, so I did not include those. (Mr. Claybourn, you should thank me for not holding your site liable for what other people on it say, as AIPAC has done to many student newspapers.)
That's the evidence. If you want to say I completely misinterpreted it, fine. That's your democratic right. But I think most of it speaks for itself.

November 14, 2002--"Bush Takes on the Right"-- No entry with that title can be found. Are you making up posts of mine? Do you work for CBS? Given your propensity to lie about your name, I suppose it's not out of the question.

March 13, 2003--"Dear God"--Where did I single out Ashoura Day as being a typical Muslim practice? It's not, and I did not say it was. In fact I offered two captions specifically noting it was Shiites in Lebanon who did this.

November 16, 2002--"Islam"--"Kill! Kill! Kill!"-- That is a quote from a high ranking Islamic terrorist, and links to an article discussing the massive demonstrations and protests.

November 19, 2002--"Warning: Boring history"--Never said Islam is violent and in fact never discussed that at all. That post concerns religion and theology, as well as some history of the church where I note "I think itís important to show that Islam has noble and respectable roots." Why're you so against Islam's noble and respectable roots, EAE/Zero? Why must you be so anti-Muslim?

December 16, 2002--"Reason #5,789 to Invade Iraq"--Areyou a second grader? Where the hell do you get this post comparing mosquest to WMD? For starters, it's nothing more than a blockquote of a TELEGRAPH NEWS ARTICLE. The article is about how Saddam has a copy of the Koran written in blood and a mosque he ran (called Mother Of All Battles to commemorate Saddam's invasion of Kuwait) held Scud missiles. How the fuck is that demeaning Islam?

January 10, 2003--"Yeah, and Jews blew up the WTC too"--This is a story about Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, a six-party alliance of Muslim political groups in Pakistan that blew up a school. You say linking to this article implies that all Muslims blow shit up? So does linking to the Timothy McVeigh story imply that all American Westerners blow shit up too? What is your problem?

March 8, 2003--Two-state "Solution"?--That post wasn't written by me, idiot. I have numerous guest bloggers that often post on my site, included Jews and (GASP!) Muslims. This was was authored by JF Karr, not me. Get your God damned facts straight.

January 14, 2003--"Iraq"--This links to Mark Shea's site, a leading national Catholic pundit where he disagrees with the Pope's opposition to war with Iraq. It has NOTHING to do with Muslims and it certainly wasn't written by me. Are you on drugs?

December 27, 2002--"Islam"--Another link sent in by JF Karr, who's favorite topic is the Jewish/Muslim conflict. Why do you never say anything negative about Islam, EAE? Are you that one-track minded?

February 17, 2003--"Omens in the Sky?"--Once again this is not a post by me, dumb ass. But even so I'd agree wit heverything in it. It notes that both Christians and Muslims take bad events as omens or God's wrath. That is not an opinion, that is simply a fact. Christians and Muslims (and Jews for that matter) see omens in bad events.

April 20, 2002--(no title)--Another mre link to anti-Semetism in France. It seems you're now holding me responsible for those that the Associated Press and Reuters quote at the end of their articles. You're such a twerp.

April 14, 2002--"Take out Arafat"--I do admit to thinking Arafat is a "bad" leader and should in fact be assassinated. Guilty as charged on that one.

January 11, 2003--"What is an American?"--This is a post praising ability of Muslims to worship freely here and our charity to poor in Muslim world. I later regretted posting it not because of the kind Muslim comments, as you well fucking know, but because it was a link to an email which claimed only Americans have these freedoms. I didn't read the whole piece before linking to it. Ugh.

December 5, 2002--"Persecutioon"--This post never mentions Muslims or Islam you tool. It's statistics about Christians being persecuted across the world, and is not specific to Muslims at all. Do you deny Christians are persecuted?

January 1, 2003--"The Year in Review"--I agree with my link to Mark Byron in that Muhammed and Jesus were very different on many different levels.

October 20, 2002--(no title)--I buy gas from Saudi oil companies indirectly, so I must support people "who are trying to kills us."

Feburary 23, 2003--"Understanding Your Opponents"--I believe a majority of Muslim leaders do not like America foreign policy and many (although probably a small minority) don't like Americans in general. You're implying otherwise?

August 27, 2002--"Temple, Temple, On the Wall, Who's the Fairest of Them All?"--This is a stroy about the possible structural collapse of the Temple, DUMB ASS. I go on to say that if it were to collapse Ariel Sharon may find an excuse to take the Temple Mount and I warn of the "catastrophic possibilities" is something like that were to occur. In other words, the post is the EXACT OPPOSITE of what you say.

September 23, 2002--"Debunking Parrish"--I agree that Muslims are not the only people likely to be caught up in a renewed anti-Americanism. In fact I specifically note the EU. Why are you going out of your way to totally misrepresent my posts?

October 30, 2002--"Freemasonry"--This has absolutely nothing to do with Islam and you've once again fabricated a quote.

Posted by: Myles Brand at September 14, 2004 01:29 PM

Pat,

"Is it really the private sector bond traders who don't care about inflation, or is it the foreign central banks who don't care about the monetary returns on their investments, as long as their buying of US treasuries helps to stimulate their domestic economies? After all, almost half of the treasuries are held by foreigners."

Would a foreign investor wish to hold a Treasury Note paying 4.14% and knowing the dollar is likely to lose value? Of course, the Bank of China or Japan would readily hold such assets to keep the dollar from losing value to easily and keeping trade cost advantages. China's currency is formally pegged to the dollar, while Japan's might as well be.

Posted by: anne at September 14, 2004 01:40 PM


Well what do oil producers do with the extra money? Probably they are not so quick to increase their investment plans. And I suppose OPEC nations probably aren't so quick to spend it.

Posted by: snsterling at September 14, 2004 02:21 PM

Pat

"That said, I am with you in worrying about recent the flattening of yield curve and wonder what is it telling us ..."

Darn, I wish I knew what this means. Would you buy a 10 year Treasury Note at 4.14%, or the Vanugard Value Index Fund with a yield of 2.61%? A capital return on the Value Index of 1.53% a year and you equal the Treasury return with less of a tax consequence.

Posted by: anne at September 14, 2004 02:45 PM

I think the correct answer may be the market is simply too distorted to give a true picture. Further distortion is the preference of the treasury to sell short term debt notes and two to five year bonds. The market for the long bond is also heavily dominated by big institutions like insurance companies that need to match durations. These distortions tend to push the rates down due to limited supply. However, recently the cover rate for the treasury auction has been falling and that may portend higher rates. Simply looking at the rates and deducing that all is well is a big mistake. The biggest problems lie in the world of derivatives and the potential losses that can not easily be hedged. Long term rates going higher would also stall out this economy. I believe what you will see shortly is a very ominous formation in the interest rate term structure: Yield curve inversion. As AG continues his return to normalcy (3 to 4 percent on the fed funds) the long term rates will remain sticky while the short term start flying up. Then a recession will be starting in '05 and the writing will be on the wall. usually the fed has to cause the yield curve inversion, but our own treasury funding duration may well drive it in the auctions.

Posted by: AllenM at September 14, 2004 05:07 PM

BTW, who is anne? I've always liked her comments too.

Posted by: Luke Lea at September 14, 2004 05:47 PM

It will be interesting indeed to watch the price of gasoline over the next few weeks as Ivan hits the Gulf Coast area refineries and disrupts the nation's gas supplies, considering that US oil is only a small fraction of our imports, and Gulf refining affects a small region of the US.

I'll bet gasoline prices soar, on the pure, unadulterated greed and futures speculation.

It's also interesting to note that in the Pacific NW, which receives it's crude oil from the North Slope, which pumps oil at the same relative cost it has since 1990, that the price NW refineries pass thru has doubled in the last few years, even though it's not costing them, and they have nowhere else to sell the stuff.

Pure profit. Futures speculation. Pure profit *then applied* towards futures speculation, then resulting in *more, higher* pure profits invested in *more* futures speculation....

Well, you get my drift....

Every oil cartel is pumping their ass off, oil fields are in gross decline worldwide with the exception of Iraq, and future wells prospects in deep offshore Gulf, Africa and Brazil at marginally far higher cost of production.

Iraq is the only budget play still on deck.

Knowing this, by controlling both supplies and demand, and invading, then occupying Iraq, oil companies can raise the price of gasoline just as high as they want, until the fat lady screams.

In this case, Ms. Bush isn't screaming. Her husband is a toadie for the same oil industry, and so is his best friend and cheerleader.

Finally, it's interesting to go back to 1974 and read the old strategic position papers on using government price to controls oil and gasoline, that CarterCo had started working on after 1973, and which so terrified the big oil companies that they groomed a has-been GE TV pitchsman and former sports reporter named Ronald Reagan as next President of the US.

Yet when Ivan is all over, the US taxpayers will be bailing out the refiner's damage, despite the fact they've been gouging us for umpity years, at the rate of nearly $1B *per day* in profits.

Posted by: Harry Possue at September 14, 2004 09:26 PM

AllenM:
you wrote:
"Long term rates going higher would also stall out this economy. I believe what you will see shortly is a very ominous formation in the interest rate term structure: Yield curve inversion. As AG continues his return to normalcy (3 to 4 percent on the fed funds) the long term rates will remain sticky while the short term start flying up."

Maybe the answers are in your comment and I am too ignorant to see them... but under what scenarios would long term rates go up, and under what scenarios would the long term rates get sticky? You seem to assert that they will remain sticky.

Posted by: jml at September 14, 2004 10:07 PM

Helpful question, JML

"Under what scenarios would long term rates go up, and under what scenarios would the long term rates get sticky?"

How does an investor use bond funds in this enviornment? Merrill Lynch is recommending a portfoilio of 55% bonds, but how are we to use bond funds now? What Vanguard bond funds can we look to? GNMA, short term, intermediate term? Surely going long term does not seem wise with long term rates this low.

Posted by: lise at September 15, 2004 04:21 AM

"How does an investor use bond funds in this environment?"

The flattening of interest rates from long to short, likely makes it helpful to stay in the intermediate to short part of the bond market. Durations below 5 years would make most sense for bond funds. But, for people who wish for better yields the only answer is patience.

Posted by: anne at September 15, 2004 06:02 AM

The USA bonds issued by Bush ain't being bought by Americans anyway. The buyers are secretive and Bush is assisting them in hiding themselves.

They would buy if rates were zero. The point for them is to put America in hock to themselves. They call the shots.

Posted by: Elaine Supkis at September 15, 2004 06:39 AM

Developing debt problems make it likely that long term interest rates will rise. Economic growth staying below the rate needed for marked employment increases means a weak labor market, and makes low long term interest rates likely. High energy prices may add to inflation, but imports with a reasonably strong dollar will dampen inflation.

Which way for long term interest rates? The guess is modestly higher, but I would have guessed so in January.

Posted by: anne at September 15, 2004 06:46 AM

Thanks to everyone for the good discussion. One of my posts appears to have lost but Luke Lee's comments suggest that he has seen my lost post (which told anne that I enjoy reading her comments) ... strange.

Posted by: pat at September 15, 2004 07:53 AM

Anne,

Is it really the private sector bond traders who don't care about inflation, or is it the foreign central banks who don't care about the monetary returns on their investments, as long as their buying of US treasuries helps to stimulate their domestic economies? After all, almost half of the treasuries are held by foreigners.

That said, I am with you in worrying about recent the flattening of yield curve and wonder what is it telling us ...

Posted by: Pat at September 15, 2004 08:04 AM

Elaine: Foreign holders of Treasury debt tell the US, "Do X." Then we say "No." Then they...what, exactly?

Posted by: Tom at September 15, 2004 11:29 AM

What yield curves are supposed to be so flat? They are flatter than they used to be, but nothing like in late 2000, and not close to inverted. When AllenM mentioned that scenario, I thought he was speculating that a move towards flat of inverted yield curves would start soon and would develop over the next 6 months or so. Now Pat worries about "flattening", but I don't see much of that. I don't know much about macro finance so perhaps I am looking at the wrong things (mostly Treasuries):
at
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/
and
http://stockcharts.com/charts/YieldCurve.html

Posted by: jml at September 15, 2004 06:39 PM

jml,

The spread between 10-year Treasury and 3-month t-bill is about 2.5 percent recently, compared to its recent peak of 3.8 percent in mid May. This is why I said the yield curve is flattening. In fact, the spread is at its lowest level for the past 14 months or so. But you are right in the sense that it may be too early to worry about it: the spread is still high by historical standard. The current level of spread is roughly the same as in late 2002 and early 2003.

Posted by: pat at September 16, 2004 08:13 AM

What I am talking about is the movement of short term rates higher while long terms rates remain stable. That would produce a yield curve inversion. Mind you I am not talking about next week, but sometime deep into 2005/2006. Flattening as a trend is apparent already as mentioned above in the contraction of the spread, but the weakness in the treasury market is starting to accelerate the trend. Nobody has big losses on the short end of the duration curve because they can wait out their term. However, there has been a tremendous amount of conventional wisdom speculation that long term rates will go up. I disagree, because there are too many parties that will keep them manageable for the near future. But refinancing our debt mess on a much shorter term basis will provide a short term problem leading to the inversion. Evidence from a market that isn't quite as dead as ours on the short end: 3 month LIBOR: Now:1.91 1 month ago :1.72 3 months ago: 1.53 six months ago: 1.11 one year ago: 1.14
Six months has yielded eighty basis points in the London interbank market. Pretty fast coverage. Now that we have already converged from 350 basis to 275 between the ten year and three month, you should consider that perhaps another 300 basis points would not be unrealistic under a situation of financial stress (i.e. a recession in the US and increasing signs of inflation). That would tend to confirm the thesis advanced previously that we will soon face a yield curve inversion.

Posted by: AllenM at September 16, 2004 02:12 PM

As for what the yield curve would signify- recession or financial crisis leading to a recession. Dollar or oil could just as easily provide the trigger. The question is not what or if, but which and when.

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