"We" have been wondering this week about just why the Bush administration was talking up this morning's payroll report and the BLS March 2003-March 2004 job growth revisions. It seemed that if their estimates were too high, it would do further damage to the administration's credibility. And if the numbers did turn out to be good, they would speak for themselves.
Al Hunt of the Wall Street Journal now reports that the Bush administration was pushing the employment report because they had no other answer to reporters' question: "What will you do on Friday?" With no other accomplishments to point to--with Bremer and Rumsfeld off the reservation--with Dick Cheney's eternal lies playing the part of the elephant in the living room wearing a pink tutu--the only thing they thought they could say was: "The employment numbers will be very good, and we will talk about how the economy is improving and prosperity is just around the corner."
But once again, hope is not a plan:
WSJ.com - Campaign Journal: The final major economic report before the presidential election was a setback to President Bush and will provide further talking points for challenger John Kerry in tonight's debate.
The government report that only 96,000 jobs were added to the employment ranks last month was bad news for the Bush campaign in at least three ways: it was only about two-thirds as large as expected, the gains actually didn't keep pace with the growth of the population and it assures that Mr. Bush will be the first president since Herbert Hoover to experience a net loss of jobs during his administration.... Earlier in the week, Bush political officials had leaked word that a more robust employment report was expected today. They were planning to then claim credit for a turnaround in the economy, arguing that after the post-9/11 slump the Bush tax cuts are now starting to produce a vibrant economy.
The article reminds me something that I've been wondering about for a while. It seems that every month, the number of jobs created that is predicted by economists has been consistently more than the number actually created; in fact, much more. Am I misremembering this and/or has anyone looked at the descrepency? The difference in estimated/actual should average to 0. Is it?
Cathy S.
Posted by: Cathy Smith at October 8, 2004 09:55 AM"it assures that Mr. Bush will be the first president since Herbert Hoover to experience a net loss of jobs during his administration"
This is funny because it assumes that Bush will lose. It is good to know that Bush's defeat is becoming the new conventional wisdom of the big media.
Posted by: Joe O at October 8, 2004 09:56 AMAnd only 59,000 of those were in the private sector.
Posted by: Abby at October 8, 2004 09:57 AMCathy S.,
The pundits keep thinking that the supply-side fiscal treatment will, and some point, cure the demand-side disease. Others think that time itself must, at some point, cure the disease. What is remarkable is how long this disease has persisted.
I agree with Cathy. I can't even tote up the number of rosy forecasts on all measures that have fallen flat on their faces over the last couple years. It seems to me that nearly every economic forecast from the 'experts' (whoever they are) has been way too optimistic. Jobs, manufacturing indices, inventory, prices, confidence, it just goes on and on.
I have noticed that the last ground the Bushies have chosen to stand on (Little Big Horn, dum, de, dum, how does that go again?) is to take credit for the total of all jobs created (1.6 mil I think is they number they are using), without mentioning all the jobs that were lost in the same period. VERY creative use of statistics I should say!
Posted by: bushwahd at October 8, 2004 10:22 AMThe important point concerning [the] employment numbers is the fact that a significant portion of these jobs are in the gov't sector. Several months ago, a poster [incorrectly] pointed out that gov't doesn't produce employment; I think that this administration has proved them wrong. It is highly ironic that a supposedly pro-business, pro-growth, anti-gov't party has used public sector employment gains to bolster laughable private sector employment numbers. If this keeps up, the entire damn workforce will be socialized within my lifetime. Now THAT would be a GREAT accomplishment for the Republicans--provided they didn't bankupt everything first.
Posted by: Jason at October 8, 2004 10:35 AMYou should enter the most inspiring and resourceful
poker room site on the web! We
are happy to present you with the most informative piece of data you can find on
the online poker. The best of poker room tips, poker rooms tournaments,
poker room
strategy, poker room games,
poker room rules.
To satisfy your curiosity, click on the online
poker room news,
and if you wish to download poker room game, please do so http://www.poker--rooms.us !
I am remain completely unconvinced that undecided voters, people who have not been able to sort through the news to figure out who deserves their vote, will know what the month jobs report has to say. An overwhelming chunk of what the White House has been saying seems aimed at the ignorant and the partisan. If the White House says aheado of time that the jobs data will be good, that is as likely to sway their intended audience as the actual jobs data.
Jason,
Several months ago, a poster who pointed out that government doesn't produce employment, or that government hadn't been producing employment? Cause in fact, pointing out that government hadn't been producing jobs would have been perfectly correct a few months ago. As recently as August, overall government employment was down from its former high. Only in September did government employment exceed its former high, by 16,000 jobs. A very large share of recent increases in government spending has been on things other than employment.
Two comments:
Re the earlier posts by Cathy Smith and bushwahd: what's ironic is that many academic economists who support Cheney/Bush are also believers in "rational expectations" and "efficienct markets" - which was once described to me (by a Bush-backing PhD economist colleague at Ernst & Young) as "People may make mistakes in forecasting, but they don't make the same mistakes over and over and over - particularly if they hire some economists to help them forecast." BWAHAHAHAHAHA.....
And the second: Yep, the bushmasters (including the Snake-in-Chief) are already starting their spin about 96,000 jobs as "proof that the Bush tax cuts are starting to produce a vibrant economy." Vibrant? 96,000 total? 59,000 private-sector? Net loss of almost 600,000 since they stole office?
Come on - you get better vibrations - and about the same results - in an adult novelty store (of course, you do have to buy the batteries for it).
Posted by: Uncle Jeffy at October 8, 2004 11:39 AM"with Bremer and Rumsfeld off the reservation"
Fabulous timing. Today in the NY Times:
What I Really Said About Iraq
By L. PAUL BREMER III
In recent days, attention has been focused on some remarks I've made about Iraq. The coverage of these remarks has elicited far more heat than light, so I believe it's important to put my remarks in the correct context.
In my speeches, I have said that the United States paid a price for not stopping the looting in Iraq in the immediate aftermath of major combat operations and that we did not have enough troops on the ground to accomplish that task. The press and critics of the war have seized on these remarks in an effort to undermine President Bush's Iraq policy.
This effort won't succeed. Let me explain why.
It's no secret that during my time in Iraq I had tactical disagreements with others, including military commanders on the ground. Such disagreements among individuals of good will happen all the time, particularly in war and postwar situations. I believe it would have been helpful to have had more troops early on to stop the looting that did so much damage to Iraq's already decrepit infrastructure. The military commanders believed we had enough American troops in Iraq and that having a larger American military presence would have been counterproductive because it would have alienated Iraqis. That was a reasonable point of view, and it may have been right. The truth is that we'll never know.
But during the 14 months I was in Iraq, the administration, the military and I all agreed that the coalition's top priority was a broad, sustained effort to train Iraqis to take more responsibility for their own security. This effort, financed in large measure by the emergency supplemental budget approved by Congress last year, continues today. In the end, Iraq's security must depend on Iraqis.
Our troops continue to work closely with Iraqis to isolate and destroy terrorist strongholds. And the United States is supporting Prime Minister Ayad Allawi in his determined effort to bring security and democracy to Iraq. Elections will be held in January and, though there will be challenges and hardships, progress is being made. For the task before us now, I believe we have enough troops in Iraq.
I'm waiting for the Bush administration to use the thousands of US killed and injured from Iraq as an example of "job churn" due to "creative destruction".
Patrick, dream frickin' on. Every sentient being in the land recognizes the Bremer op-ed for what it is: the result of the totalitarian thugs in the white house who have beaten a show trial confession out of bremer.
even so, read the key phrase about "American" troops. It's no secret that Rumsfeld and Bush weren't going to approve more American troops, so not being idiots, the commanders on the ground asked for the next best thing: troops from high muslim population countries. Which they didn't get.
At no moment did either Bremer (it is now clear) nor the generals ever agree that bush, cheney, rumsfeld, and wolfowitz had it right about troops levels beyond the initial blitzkreig.
In many ways, this pathetic little citation on your part, Patrick, is perhaps the single most revealing thing you've done, demonstrating that you are enthralled by the propagandists who work for the totalitarian thugs who have the nerve to occupy our government.
Meanwhile, back on the economic front, the simple fact (as the prof notes somewhere today) is that bush claimed that his so-called stimulus dividend tax cut would create 5.5M new jobs betweeen July 1, 2003 and December 31, 2004. We've actually gottne about 1/3 of that total, and the prospects aren't looking good going forward. Of course, the liar-in-chief wants to pretend that he never said that, just as he and cheney are pretending now that we invaded iraq because of corruption in the oil-for-food program. They truly do believe that you can fool some of the people all of the time, and they hope that some = 51%.
Meanwhile, Patrick, as a card-carrying apologist for the biggest liars to occupy the white house since the days of johnson and nixon, you're welcome to explain why it is that we haven't gotten a single month of 300K job growth since the dividend tax cut, much less the average of 300K/month that Bush promised.
The baseline reason to vote for Kerry has really come clear in the last several weeks: we must restore some basic semblance of honesty to our public discourse.
Posted by: howard at October 8, 2004 01:39 PMGreat site, nice work. phenterminehttp://www.top-phenteramine.biz
Posted by: Phentermine at October 8, 2004 07:26 PMUse
fioricet for depression. Best
buy fioricet at online stores.
Cheapest
online fioricet can be found at
USA only. Buy
cheap fioricet buy read
fioricet side effects before
treatment.
http://www.buy-fioricet-here.us
Take
fioricet for headache.
Anyone can
buy fioricet at his local
pharmacy. You can buy
online fioricet and it will
be
cheap fioricet. Check
fioricet side effects before
using. http://www.buy-fioricet-butalbital.us
Your safe Online Pharmacy
Posted by: Your safe Online Pharmacy at October 12, 2004 11:37 PMBuy cheap Soma online
Posted by: Buy cheap Soma online at October 14, 2004 02:14 AMhome mortgage loan
Posted by: home mortgage loan at October 15, 2004 01:35 AMOnline Masters Degree Programs
Posted by: Online Masters Degree Programs at October 16, 2004 01:36 AMDo not take Soma Addiction if you have acute intermittent
porphyria. Soma Pharmacy is habit forming and should only be used under close
supervision if you have an alcohol or drug addiction. Before taking Online
Soma tell your doctor if you have kidney disease, liver disease, an ulcer
in your stomach or intestines, a bleeding or blood-clotting Cheap
Soma disorder, urinary
retention, an enlarged prostate, hypothyroidism, a head injury, or Addison's
disease. You may not be able to take aspirin / carisoprodol /Soma
codeine, or you
may require a lower dose or special monitoring during treatment if you have soma
any
of the conditions listed above.
online casino
Posted by: online casino at October 18, 2004 02:38 PMDo not take Soma Addiction if you have acute intermittent
porphyria. Soma Pharmacy is habit forming and should only be used under close
supervision if you have an alcohol or drug addiction. Before taking Online
Soma tell your doctor if you have kidney disease, liver disease, an ulcer
in your stomach or intestines, a bleeding or blood-clotting Cheap
Soma disorder, urinary
retention, an enlarged prostate, hypothyroidism, a head injury, or Addison's
disease. You may not be able to take aspirin / carisoprodol /Soma
codeine, or you
may require a lower dose or special monitoring during treatment if you have soma
any
of the conditions listed above.
Buy Soma Now is a muscle relaxant. It works by blocking nerve impulses (or pain
sensations) that are sent to your brain. Buy
Cheap Soma is a pain reliever. Codeine is
in a class of drugs called narcotic analgesics and it works by Buy
Soma Online changing the way
your body feels pain. Aspirin / carisoprodol / codeine is used, along with Buy
Soma rest
and physical therapy, to treat injuries and other Soma
painful muscular conditions.
Aspirin / Soma Buy Online may also be used for purposes other than those listed here.
Online Casino Games
Posted by: Online Casino Games at October 24, 2004 02:53 AMmortgage leads
Posted by: mortgage leads at October 26, 2004 02:15 AM photo sex visit also
the following free
sex games online visit also the following free interracial
sex visit also the following interracial sex visit
also the following free group sex
video visit also the following free photo sex visit
also the following sex
tamil visit also the following free tamil sex visit
also the following free full length
videos visit also the following sex site password
visit also the following free sex sample
movie visit also the following free clip sex visit also
the following sex photo
visit also the following password sex site
visit also the following free sex movie visit
also the following desi sex
visit also the following trailer sex free visit
also the following free
japan sex visit also the following free online sex
game visit also the following live sex show free
visit also the following free milf downloads
visit also the following free porn star
mpegs visit also the following sex film visit also the
following sex
position videos visit also the following position sex visit also
the following star xxx
visit also the following free sample sex
movie visit also the following photo woman sex visit
also the following teen movie sample
visit also the following sample movie sex visit
also the following free japanese sex
videos visit also the following sex position
picture visit also the following free sex photo visit
also the following sex
free preview visit also the following free milf visit also the
following free clip
xxx visit also the following free sex chat rooms
visit also the following sex photo japan visit
also the following sex
free japan visit also the following free sex japan visit
also the following xxx vids
visit also the following free xxx clip visit also
the following japanese
sex free visit also the following free movie sample
visit also the following free video sample
sex visit also the following free erotica visit also
the following sex
video free sample visit also the following sample video xxx visit
also the following tamil sex picture
visit also the following free sex thumb visit
also the following tamil
sex video visit also the following sex free sample visit
also the following free
xxx thumb visit also the following sex game free visit also
the following bride sex
visit also the following free xxx sample visit
also the following photo
sex japan visit also the following illustrated sex visit
also the following explicit
sex visit also the following foot sex visit also the
following long free
sex movie visit also the following free erotic stories
visit also the following free live sex chats
visit also the following live sex cam visit also
the following free
sex movie clips visit also the following tamil sex movie visit
also the following japan free sex
movie visit also the following download film sex
visit also the following film sex download
visit also the following clip sex free visit also
the following free
anal trailer visit also the following sex video clip free
visit also the following woman photo sex visit
also the following free video clip sex
visit also the following audio sex free visit
also the following tamil
sex photo visit also the following free sex sites visit
also the following free
sex sites visit also the following teen cash visit also the
following gang bang
squad visit also the following gang bang visit also the
following milf riders
visit also the following oral
sex visit also the following anal sex visit also the
following group sex visit
also the following teen
slut visit also the following anal sex free visit also
the following free gay
picture visit also the following bondage visit also the
following cum shot visit
also the following bang
boat
http://free.sexxxvid.com/photo-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-games-online.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-interracial-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/interracial-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-group-sex-video.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-photo-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-tamil.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-tamil-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-full-length-videos.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-site-password.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-sample-movie.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-clip-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-photo.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/password-sex-site.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-movie.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/desi-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/trailer-sex-free.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-japan-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-online-sex-game.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/live-sex-show-free.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-milf-downloads.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-porn-star-mpegs.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-film.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-position-videos.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/position-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/star-xxx.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sample-sex-movie.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/photo-woman-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/teen-movie-sample.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sample-movie-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-japanese-sex-videos.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-position-picture.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-photo.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-free-preview.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-milf.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-clip-xxx.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-chat-rooms.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-photo-japan.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-free-japan.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-japan.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/xxx-vids.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-xxx-clip.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/japanese-sex-free.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-movie-sample.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-video-sample-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-erotica.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-video-free-sample.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sample-video-xxx.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/tamil-sex-picture.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-thumb.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/tamil-sex-video.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-free-sample.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-xxx-thumb.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-game-free.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/bride-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-xxx-sample.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/photo-sex-japan.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/illustrated-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/explicit-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/foot-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/long-free-sex-movie.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-erotic-stories.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-live-sex-chats.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/live-sex-cam.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-movie-clips.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/tamil-sex-movie.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/japan-free-sex-movie.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/download-film-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/film-sex-download.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/clip-sex-free.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-anal-trailer.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/sex-video-clip-free.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/woman-photo-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-video-clip-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/audio-sex-free.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/tamil-sex-photo.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-sites.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-sex-sites.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/teen-cash.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/gang-bang-squad.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/gang-bang.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/milf-riders.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/oral-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/anal-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/group-sex.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/teen-slut.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/anal-sex-free.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/free-gay-picture.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/bondage.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/cum-shot.html http://free.sexxxvid.com/bang-boat.html
refinance mortgage
Posted by: refinance mortgage at October 29, 2004 02:13 AM3312 Kona Coffee Starbucks Coffee Jamaica Blue Mountain
Coffee
coffee maker gourmet coffee green mountain coffee kenya coffee organic coffee specialty coffee folgers coffee coffee brewers costa rica coffee Tullys Coffee Millstone Coffee coffee grinder http://www.coffee-delivered.com
xenical
xenical
levitra
levitra
8297
directv
direct tv directv satellite direct tv satellite directv dvr direct tv dvr direct tv tivo directv tivo directway
direcway
directway internet directway satellite direcway internet direcway internet free hbo free cinemax free dvd player satellite radio http://www.satellitetvboutique.com
directv
direct tv
directv satellite direct tv satellite directv dvr direct tv dvr direct tv tivo directv tivo directway
direcway
directway internet directway satellite direcway internet direcway internet free hbo free cinemax free dvd player satellite radio http://satellite-tv.cjb.net
Nice site.
Posted by: hair loss treatments at November 13, 2004 10:19 AMNice site.
Posted by: hair loss treatments at November 14, 2004 11:29 AMNice work. Pheterminehttp://www.cheapest-phenthermine.biz/Phetermine.htm
Posted by: phetermine at November 15, 2004 11:59 PMNice work. Pheterminehttp://cheapest-phenthermine.biz/phentramine.htm
Posted by: phentramine at November 17, 2004 12:29 AMIn 1932, mayor of the Austrian town of Worgl decided to do something about the 35 percent unemployment of his constituency He convinced the town hall to issue
14,000 Austrian shillings' worth of "stamp scrip," which were covered by exactly the same amount of ordinary shillings deposited in a local bank.
After two years, Worgl became the first Austrian city to achieve full employment (Porn Site, Bdsm Art).
Water distribution was generalized throughout, all of the town was repaved, most houses were repaired and repainted,
taxes were being paid early, and forests around the city were replanted.
More than 200 other Austrian communities decided to copy this example, but here again the Central Bank blocked the process.
A legal appeal was made all the way to the Supreme Court, where it was lost.
U.S. soldiers advanced into southern Falluja today, fighting insurgents in alleyways and bombed-out buildings as the all-out assault on the city entered its fifth day.
click here
CNNs Jane Arraf, who is embedded with the Army, reports soldiers are clearing the way for Marines, who are going door-to-door searching for weapons.
Get your ink cartridges at www.ink-4-u.info hp ink cartridgeshewlett pacakard ink cartridgesinkjet cartrigescartragesprinter cartragesprinter cartrigesink cartragesepson ink cartridgescanon ink cartridgeslexmark ink cartridgesxerox ink cartridgesnec ink cartridgessharp ink cartridgesepson toner cartridgescanon toner cartridgeslexmark toner cartridgesxerox toner cartridgeshewlett packard toner cartridges
Posted by: ink cartriges at November 21, 2004 01:08 AMAll of the DVD rentals are delivered directly to your mailing address by mail with a return postage-paid envelope from our distribution centers. The average shipping time is 3-5 business days for all movie rentals. Some DVD rental titles are specially ordered for members, which may cause a delay in the member receiving the movie rental. Step 1) Create a list online of DVD rentals by mail you want to see. Step 2) We will rush you 3 DVD movies from your list in 1-3 days. Step 3) No Late Fees! ? Keep each DVD as long as you want. Step 4) Return viewed DVD movie rentals to get new ones from your list using our prepaid return envelopes. We looked at several services offering Online DVD Rentals. Blockbuster Rentals are fast and convenient and are quickly becoming very popular. You can rent movies online from Netflix or a few other sites that deliver your movies free of charge for a monthly fee. You never get late fees with these GamezNFlix online rental services which saves ME a LOT of money on late fees.
Posted by: DVD Rentals at November 21, 2004 08:03 PMBuy phentemine online today,cheapest phentemine. phentreminephentreminephenteriminephentriminephentereminephentaraminephentaminephenteminepheneterminephenterinephenterninepherterminephentenminephentimine.htmphenteraminediabeties foot healthdiabetic recipesdiabetic suppliersdiabetic dietdiabeties foot healthdiabetiesdiabetic socksdiabetediabetic hockey playerscar decal diabetic driver
Posted by: phenermine at November 21, 2004 08:59 PM3252 http://www.top-texas-hold-em.com
texas hold em
Posted by: texas hold em at November 22, 2004 03:08 PM