John Harwood of the Wall Street Journal reported, before the employment release:
WSJ.com - Bush Hopes Economy Will Offset Iraq: BUSH TEAM hopes economic data offset bad news on Iraq. Campaign strategists await jobs report today that's expected to show employment gains. Since the economy has been out of the spotlight, that news is "less redundant" and more likely to affect voters, a Bush adviser says.
It's highly foolish to make claims about things that you don't know but that are about to be revealed. The right thing to say is always: "We don't know now, but we will know soon, and then we will see." Anything else runs the risk of making it *very* clear that your picture of the world is based not on reality but on wishful groupthink.
Posted by DeLong at October 8, 2004 10:01 AM | TrackBackI sense that the wheels are not off the cart, but there is a huge wobble in one wheel and the others are really low on air.
D
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But none of them would do anything different if they could do it all over again.
Posted by: vote no on (almost) all CA propositions at October 8, 2004 10:21 AMAnother difficult month of job creation. Only 96,000 new jobs created last month, and we need 150,000 simply to stay even with additions to the labor force from population growth. Not an encouraging month. We simply are not growing fast enough to spur employers to add jobs at a pace that will allow recovery from the past recession.
Employers are evidently still cost cutting. This is discouraging. Growth is reasonable, but productivity is high enough that we just do not have a healthy demand for labor. Interestingly the robust estimate for job creation that Brad DeLong pointed to, was not nearly realized. But, estimates have routinely been too high since spring.
So, 50 dollars a barrel of oil and weak job creation and rising short term interest rates. Not a pleasing combination.
I remember Tricky Dick in the waning days, and this time is starting to smell like him and Gerald Ford's screwed up gift to the American people- now we just live through our stagflation and hope not to get too poor.
Posted by: AllenM at October 8, 2004 10:50 AMProductivity is high and there's a demand for labor - but it's a demand for Indian and Chinese labor, not American.
Posted by: Cassius Chaerea at October 8, 2004 11:14 AMGiven this blunder, and the fact that MSNBC briefly had a prepared story about the "good" jobs report, one wonders whether some wonk at BLS didn't pull a snow job on the White House. Now that the numbers are released, it's too late to change them or edit them.
Posted by: Jay Gischer at October 8, 2004 11:29 AMThe really sad part of all this is that the true believers among Bush's followers (approximately half the electorate) will follow the line of wishful thinking right up until we have 30% unemployment, galloping inflation, and riots in the streets.
At that point, they will blame the liberal media for reporting these things and not highlighting all the good news out there.
Posted by: Derelict at October 8, 2004 11:53 AM>Growth is reasonable, but productivity is high enough that we just do not have a healthy demand for labor.
I think you are saying "Productivity is GDP/Jobs, and since GDP is going up and the job count isn't, productivity is by definition growing."
Hmmmm, remember the dog in the night? Job growth may be the equivalent. Despite my tirades on Globalization(tm), I am well aware that we aren't outsourcing anywhere near the work to supress job growth to this level.
Yet I also just don't see where this productivity growth coming from?
Well, maybe it isn't coming from anywhere. The dog isn't barking, and examination of that fact (and eliminating the impossible to get down to the improbable :>) turns major suspicion on our GDP measurements.
PS: actually I hate the Sherlock Holmes books.
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