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http://www.buzzflash.com/editorial/04/08/edi04057.html#video

Can someone please explain why the seven minutes on 9/11 isn't being pushed by any campaign, PAC or 527?

(Which was really less than seven minutes, but Bush only left because the lesson was over. It could just as easily have been over 30 minutes.)

What would be the net result if Kerry mentioned it? Is it that the Kerry people have thought about it and decided it wouldn't have a net positive effect?

Those numbers are for the first debate...for the second Kerry led 47-45.

> Those numbers are for the first debate...for the second Kerry led 47-45.

No. Those are the numbers for independents in the second debate. On the one hand, you can always play games if you get to choose which numbers to pay attention to. But it seems sort of reasonable to use the opinion of independents as a proxy for an unbiased assessment when most people have made up their minds already.

Julio:

Kerry knows the polls show Bush with a pathetic popularity rating. He knows that historically incumbent presidents' election percentage is the same as their popularity rating. All he has to do, therefore, is to convince the undecideds that he's a competent choice, and they'll give him the nod.

Therefore, everything Kerry says and does should be about demonstrating his competence. Yes, he needs to point out the errors of Bush to demonstrate that he understands they ARE errors, and that he'll do things differently. But he doesn't need to attack Bush for being an angry, incompetent, moron who freezes under pressure. While that is true, those statements will tend to make undecideds feel uncomfortable about Kerry because he will seem too "mean".

yeah, sorry, I was just about to correct myself. it was also Kerry's overall margin in the first debate which is why I got confused. Good news...the number confirms my impression from the debate, that Bush might have done all right in shoring up his base but Kerry wiped the floor with him for those who are in the middle politically. (I.e., those for whom chants of "liberal, liberal" don't constitute an argument.)

Paul: good point. It's also worth noting that Gallup's polling technique has resulted in overly Republican samples. (Zogby, by contrast, has given up on phone polling altogether because they find the samples non-random.)

Why is this important? Well, self-identified independents have a wide spectrum of opinion. If the overall sample is overrepresented by Republicans, it is likely that the SI-independent subsample is overly conservative.

AND, that indicates that a the Kerry advantage among independents may be understated.

Didn´t a load of Nobel-Prize winning economists write a letter denouncing this administration´s economic policies? I wish Kerry would bring that up, too.

You guys must be looking at the wrong figures - Sean Hannity assured us that "the President wiped the floor tonight", although he was more than usually hysterical when he said it.

I'll always remember when Hannity said, “I make my living off debate”. Even Condoleezza Rice couldn’t keep a straight face when she heard that one.

"Standoff in Second Debate
Debate viewers: 47% say Kerry did better, 45% say Bush"

Now who's living in fantasy land?

Observer Re: Nobody except Michael Moore is pushing the Pet Goat thing:

[[
But he doesn't need to attack Bush for being an angry, incompetent, moron who freezes under pressure. While that is true, those statements will tend to make undecideds feel uncomfortable about Kerry because he will seem too "mean".
]]

What about Moveon or the DNC or anybody?

Is it that all of the undecideds already know about it?

Are they saving it for a exact best time?

I can't figure out why this is not a substantial issue, or why Bush has never had to try to explain it.

Patrick, are you being willfully ignorant, or are you really that obtuse? Read the post again (it's only one freakin' sentence) and you'll see the word independent. This late in the game, the "who won the debate polls" mean absolutely nothing, because it's simply a proxy for, "which one of the two is your guy." That Kerry still won a Republican-weighted poll is definitive. I have a suspicion that you'll be very surprised on November 2nd.

"Now, you asked what mistakes. I made some mistakes in appointing people, but I'm not going to name them. I don't want to hurt their feelings on national TV."

So he did answer the question, in his way. No mistakes of his own, but a there's a nameless few who let Team Bush down.

The assertions that Bush is a really smart guy hiding behind a folksy front is just crap. This is a bonehead who thought it was funny to search under his desk for WMDs while Americans were dying for his lies in Iraq. He is not fit to be President.

Patrick,

At first glance, those poll results (Gallup/CNN/USA Today) point to a draw. But on further inspection show a Kerry win, albeit not a smashing one, with the sample group.

First, the group was 50-46 Bush going into the debate. A 47-45 Kerry edge on the debate signifies progress for him.

Second, both the Democrat (87-8 Kerry) and Republican (83-10 Bush) identifying respondents overwhelmingly identified their party's nominee as the winner in the debate. Both bases saw their guy as the victor. Independents, however, saw Kerry as the winner by a 53-37 margin.

When the independents break for you and your margin with your base equals or exceeds that of your opponent, that is a debate win. Not as big as in the first debate, but if Kerry scores with the independents in the third debate like he did in the second, President Bush will find himself in a very unfavorable situation.

Julio,
I hope the Kerry-Edwards (or associates) are saving the best for last.

I didn't even think Mike Moore got as much as he could of out of My Pet Goat in Fahrenheit 9/11.

Even to run two minutes time-elapsed with a sombre voiceover should be absolutely devasting.

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