Mystery Pollster reports that most coverage has "overlooked" the fact that Kerry won the second debate. That's a hard thing to overlook:
Posted by DeLong at October 11, 2004 10:26 AM | TrackBackMystery Pollster: The Second Debate: A busy weekend has made me late to the party on the subject of debate reaction. For those who have not seen them, three survey organizations -- Gallup, ABC News and Democracy Corps (a Democratic polling entity) -- did post debate surveys of debate watchers. Each one polled debate viewers they had previously interviewed earlier in the week, Gallup and ABC by telephone and Democracy Corps via a projectable and representative Internet panel (the merits of which, I discussed here).
Gallup described the debate reaction as "a standoff"and ABC News said debate viewers "divided along partisan lines," because the results in both surveys showed that partisans on either side judged their man the winner by nearly identical margins (or at least within sampling error). Vote preferences barely budged during the debate. Historically, that is the typical reaction -- the debate itself tends to reinforce existing preferences.
However, most of the coverage has overlooked the fact that independents perceived Kerry as the winner on all three surveys:
Gallup - "Who do you think did a better job in the debate?" Kerry 53%, Bush 37%
ABC News - "Who, in your opinion, won the debate?" Kerry 44%, Bush 34%
Democracy Corps - "Who would you say won the debate?" Kerry 44%, Bush 33%
The ABC polling unit looked at their own results and noted (in a press release) that the 10-point Kerry margin among independents was "within the margin of error for the number of independents surveyed." True enough. Given that ABC reported a "35-32 percent Democrat-Republican division" in their survey, independents could have been no more than 170 respondents out of 515, for which the margin of error would be at least +/- 7%.
However, the three surveys combined included more than enough interviews among independents to make a 10-point difference significant...
In my more paranoid moments I've begun to think of some of the bizarre polling (has Gallup ever explained why they're oversampling Republicans?) and slipshod reporting on the polling as components toward softening up the electorate for the ballot fraud to come. It will be much easier to "sell" manufactured vote counts giving Bush a narrow victory if that's what the polls were showing these next few weeks too.
Some polls show Bush gaining among 18-29 year-olds. They want to be drafted?
Posted by: Social democrat at October 11, 2004 10:54 AM"... most coverage has "overlooked" the fact that Kerry won the second debate."
Gosh. What a surprise. And with our liberal media too.
Posted by: WarblogTHIS at October 11, 2004 11:01 AMAnd never mind the unscientific online polls hosted by news organizations which had Kerry winning with over 80% of the vote in some cases. In fact, he was even winning the FoxNews.com poll when I last checked it.
Posted by: Windhorse at October 11, 2004 11:07 AMThe media storyline was written before the first word of the debate was spoken: bush performs better, holds his own. No mere poling data can be allowed to enter into this discussion.
And certainly the media were never going to allow anything like "bush flares up angrily when questioned" to enter into the symmetry of the pre-determined storyline, which sets up a "decisive" third debate.
If sportswriters were as lame as political writers, we'd never actually know who won anything (fer instance, if today's media covered the lakers-pistons series, the lakers would have come back decisively to defeat the challenging pistons).
Posted by: howard at October 11, 2004 11:13 AM"However, the three surveys combined included more than enough interviews among independents to make a 10-point difference significant..."
Umm, you can't take three insignificant results, add them together & create significance out of thin air. You should know better.
Tim
Posted by: Tim Keller at October 11, 2004 11:16 AMTim has evidently never heard of metaanalysis, which does take results that individually may not have statistical significance and produce a larger study with statistical significance.
But it exists, and I am more than 95% confident that these results do show statistical significance.
Posted by: Charles at October 11, 2004 12:02 PMAs howard says, the script was pre-written, in order to ensure a rubber game and extend the horserace. I'm sure that if Kerry were ten points ahead, the pundits would be using the epithet 'flip-flopping French fuck' just to narrow things.
Posted by: ahem at October 11, 2004 12:35 PMOK Charles, show me some math. What's the effect size? What's the odds ratio?
Tim
Posted by: Tim Keller at October 11, 2004 01:08 PMDo the math yourself.
Posted by: Barry at October 11, 2004 01:57 PMTim,
Barry's right. Metaanalysis is done all the time in academic publicatiions and can be applied to polls.It is based on the commutative and associative propoerties.
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