Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog

Good to see some solid work win. Sargeant-Barro- not until we forgive Barro his intro textbook.

I was kind of hoping that Paul Krugman would win this time. What a slap in the face that would be for the Bush administration.

Its not a nobel prize though. Alfred Nobel didn't endow it :-) Its the 'Swedish Central Bank Prize in Honour of Alfred Nobel' as Nassim Taleb points out in his 'Fooled by Randomness'. next thing you know people will be claiming that Economics is a science.... ;-p

Dermot

I'm really glad Prescott won. He was at the University of Minnesota for a long time -- my alma mater. I was in the business school, though, not the economics department. It's too bad I never had a class w/him.

Anyway, I'm just really glad that Paul Krugman didn't win. Deo gratias! The Nobel committee gets to keep its integrity for at least a little while.

Pretty good, but are they line for the Ki'q Y'gs'Othoth Prize for Advancing Shrillness?

Although I'm the biggest Star Trek fan I know, my Klingon is a little weak. What does Ki'q Y'gs'Othoth mean, ogmb?

Although I'm the biggest Star Trek fan I know, my Klingon is a little weak. What does Ki'q Y'gs'Othoth mean, ogmb?

Although I'm the biggest Star Trek fan I know, my Klingon is a little weak. What does Ki'q Y'gs'Othoth mean, ogmb?

AllenM,

What was wrong with Barro's intro book?

It's not supposed to be Klingon, but one of the fake languages from H. P. Lovecraft's horror stories. No meaning.

I would have preferred a Sargent-Prescott-Barro prize. I don't see why Stiglitz-Akerlof-Spence had to share whilst Sargent and Barro will one day get their own separate prizes for work which is arguably really part of the same project.

I'm surprised that no newspaper has yet described Prescott's theory of business cycles in concise vernacular terms yet. You know the way they wrote up Tobin's Nobel with a line such as "James Tobin received the Nobel Prize today for his theory that you shouldn't put all your eggs into one basket." If it were for Prescott they'd have to say something like "Ed Prescott received the Nobel Prize today for his theory that recessions and depressions are caused by sudden desires of workers to take time off (also known as 'taste shocks' in the economists' jargon)."

If they did it might go something like this:

zzi you beat me to it. I would have the press describe Prescotts work thus.
"Ed Presscott recieved his Nobel Prize today for explaining why workers took a long vacation during the Great Depression."

I

when I was in econ grad school in the 90s Ed Prescott came for a seminar and we were all quite impressed. One of us was so moved to write "Ed Prescott -- economist of the '90s" on the chalkboard in the TA offices. That sparked a long chalkboard (pre-email chat blathering, I guess) about who was the true "economist of the 90s." I don't remember Finn Kydland's name coming up. But our macro classes were somewhere between horrible and worse than horrible, so we were (and presumably are still) pretty clueless on the matter.

I was rooting for Oliver Williamson.

I fully support zzi who says the prize should have gone to Sargent-Prescott-Barro. Stiglitz and Akerlof should have been awarded in the past separately too. And don't forget Bhagwati's major contributions to trade theory came decades earlier than the Kydland-Prescott paper. It would have been more fitting if the award had gone to Krugman-Bhagwati-Dixit this time. But the Swedish central bank, like probably all central banks, is full of conservatives/libertarians. Can't expect them to get rid of their inherent systemic bias.

You are very polite Brad. I guess all econmists agree that the paper on subgame imperfection of monetary policy is, indeed, very important. I don't believe that you believe that RBC theory is useful for understanding booms. I certainly don't but let's debate by e-mail.

My problem with a prize for Prescott is that, although he has done enough good work for a prize, his worst work is aweful. I think, for example, that you consider the same person worthy of a Nobel prize and to have failed the Turing test.

A Sargent Barro prize ?!? I can see giving both the prize, but not together. I think their work overlaps only in the very silly interest in the Lucas supply function. Barro has done good empirical stuff on Growth and Sargent has done interested stuff on models with learning but the overlap of their work is no good (so the citation would be a crazy assertion).

But mainly I suspect your diplomacy is part of a strategy to unite economists right and left against Bush.

By the way. Odd that Michael Froomkin and Martin Feldstein have the same initials.

You are very polite Brad. I guess all econmists agree that the paper on subgame imperfection of monetary policy is, indeed, very important. I don't believe that you believe that RBC theory is useful for understanding booms. I certainly don't but let's debate by e-mail.

My problem with a prize for Prescott is that, although he has done enough good work for a prize, his worst work is aweful. I think, for example, that you consider the same person worthy of a Nobel prize and to have failed the Turing test.

A Sargent Barro prize ?!? I can see giving both the prize, but not together. I think their work overlaps only in the very silly interest in the Lucas supply function. Barro has done good empirical stuff on Growth and Sargent has done interested stuff on models with learning but the overlap of their work is no good (so the citation would be a crazy assertion).

But mainly I suspect your diplomacy is part of a strategy to unite economists right and left against Bush.

By the way. Odd that Michael Froomkin and Martin Feldstein have the same initials.

I will probably go against current here, but "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations" is a very important piece of work on the business cycle (don't get me wrong, I also find the time inconsistency paper very insightful).
Its most valuable and important contribution is to provide a method to study the businss cycle. The main element of this method is the use of dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium (DSGE) models. I would rather call this method the DSGE method than the RBC method.

That said, I suspect that technology shocks are important components of the business cycle, but that they are not the full story. Clearly, there is a large and growing literature that uses DSGE models to study other sources of the business cycle (including money shocks). DSGE models are also used to study other aspects of the economy. For example, Prescott used a DSGE model to study asset returns. The result is a very important paper titled "The Equity Premium: A Puzzle."

Brad wrote that RBC theory may be a good theory of booms, but a poor theory of depressions. Prescott might also agree, especially if we define a depression as a very severe and prolonged recession. In response to this, Prescott and the Minnesota gang held a conference on depressions. The papers of this conference appear in the January 2002 issue of the Review of Economic Dynamics.
http://www.economicdynamics.org/RED135.htm

I agree that the shift from studying examples with closed from solutions to simulating is very useful.

My objection to DSGE models is not just the fact that "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations" considers only technology shocks (and assumes the Solow residual is technology). Even with sticky prices and wages and involuntary unemployment, the contribution of the models is the imposition of incredibly strong rationality assumptions which no one believes. From that paper on it seems to me that parameter estimates allegedly based on micro data are chosen to fit the macro data. The technique drowns common sense.

Also, to be a bit more clear, a paper by Prescott on the Great Depression presented the argument that Brad considers to have failed the Turing test.

I think the Economics Nobel is markedly different from the Nobel in natural sciences since one can win it with a theory which has been rejected by the data. Theoretical physicists win the prize but only *after* a striking prediction of their model has been confirmed.

Robert Waldmann wrote, "I think the Economics Nobel is markedly different from the Nobel in natural sciences since one can win it with a theory which has been rejected by the data."

Right.

Note this problem pervades economics. (Disclaimer: I'm no expert in economics. And many economists do fine work.) Look at Martin Feldstein predicting that the Clinton 1993 tax hikes would have a highly negative impact on the economy. He was wrong, and yet he's the head of NBER.

Sorry about the double post above. I confess that I am paid to be an economist, that is, as if I were an economist.

I question the value of having Nobels in economics. Not that smart people don't pursue the subject, and not that it isn't of great practical use. But it isn't a of subject with milestones of cumulative advance, like the natural sciences.

For several years, I read Science and Nature every week, and part of the ritual was the minireviews. I knewv that an active line of research was protein turnover in cells, and that a particular breakdown pathway was being worked out. That was the topic of one of the Nobels this year. I still don't remember the names of the people who did the work. My response to the news was to agree that the subject was deserving. I assume that the choice of recients was fair, though it is sometimes controversial. I know some colorful stories about winners and nearwinners, but in each case I know the specific accomplishment.

With the Nobels in economics, the story is always the people, then the general subject area, like "macroeconomics" or "market imperfections". I have the feeling that I'm the object of an advertisement. I certainly agree with the goals of the advertisement, to encourage the rational application of economic principles to policy. If it gives economists some clout with politicians, I'm all for it. But I still shake my head when they announce the Nobels.

What? Economics doesn't deserve a Nobel? Isn't 30 years enough time to evidence validity of a hypothesis? All science gets refuted (if good), even this dismal one..I studied K. Popper (Phil. of Sci.) at B., also. Steven Pinker's "Blank Slate" points out how recently our brains have evolved, and how few are those who even attempt to understand abstractions of the market economy...The difference is that economics (now) studies several facets of human nature...while the natural sciences study natural nature--which we are part and parcel of??? So all economics must be political, what Brad? But then there is no such thing as an exact science...From another Berkeley-educated economist and news-letterist.

Why does it have to be an academic? If we are thinking about the practice of central banking, what about Volcker?

Here I agree with Prof Waldmann... Prescott's worst work is really horrible. And since I am anonymous, and not a Harvard faculty member, I can bring up Barro's worst work as a casus-veto to a Nobel prize.

"I question the value of having Nobels in economics."

Why a Nobel for Economics?

"Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back."

One good reason for a Nobel in Economics is provided by John Maynard Keynes.

"Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back."

Is the criterion for the Nobel in Economics the potential for inspiring madmen in authority?

Sorry for the second post. I though my first was not failed.

Not a good morning. I thought my first attempt failed.

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