Apartment 11D thinks that Ron Suskind and his New York Times Magazine article on Bush will decide the election:
Posted by DeLong at November 2, 2004 10:12 AM | TrackBack11D: Tipping the Scale: After the election, every variable will be examined. What factor made a difference in such a tight election? The weather? Number of volunteers? Did blogging shape the race?... I think that the Times article on Bush's doubt-less mindset based on his religious convictions was pivotal. I have had that article mentioned several times by... [the] previously undecided.
Yes, I'm sure that article was the talk of coffee shops and truck stops all over Ohio.
Posted by: Kuas at November 2, 2004 10:23 AMRon Suskind was interviewed be Charlie Rose, after the aritcle appeared. Suskind believed that the article would be helpful to George Bush, explaining Bush to voters for whom religious faith is of signal importance. The article was widely read according to the New York Times.
Posted by: anne at November 2, 2004 10:27 AMShe moved to the suburbs, so she's not really Apartment 11D anymore. I think she prefers to be referred to as Laura of 11D or just Laura, 11D.
Posted by: fling93 at November 2, 2004 11:14 AMBrad, you chopped out the word elites. I think that this article was influential with undecided elites. In the blogosphere, I heard Dan Drezner and Andrew Sullivan mention it several times. Do the elites indirectlly influence the guys in truck stops in Ohio? That's another question.
Posted by: Laura McKenna at November 2, 2004 11:32 AMThe tipping point of this election was the creation of Shrillblog.
Go Brad.
Posted by: Oberon at November 2, 2004 02:13 PM" Do the elites indirectlly influence the guys in truck stops in Ohio? That's another question."
And if they do, how fast does the influence take effect?
I think pointing to single factors of the level of a magazine article is futile. And for a really pathetic wxcuse see Glenn Reynolds' attempt to blame it (prospectively!) on the media. I wonder what the weather is like on his planet (which, in deference to our host, we assume to be in the Gamma Quadrant).
Posted by: Jonathan Goldberg at November 2, 2004 02:18 PMThat Suskind article went off like a small bomb.
Here in London, I showed it to one American family. They risked disinheritance by showing it to their Mum in a swing state (their father is a staunch right wing Republican).
I think it had a huge impact, especially amongst middle of the road independent and Republican voters with college degrees. The sort of Americans who live in London: professionals often with MBAs, law degrees. Whose parents are usually middle of the road Protestant or Catholic.
It really really crystallised peoples' concerns about Bush.
The other thing that was crucial (besides the debates, of course) was Al Quaa. It blew the Bush campaign completely off stride at a critical moment, took them 48 hours to recover.
Bush could still win this, but at some level his credibility is permanently damaged with a lot of people.
Posted by: John at November 2, 2004 02:37 PMI never had a tipping point as I don't vote rebub.
However, my stomach dropped to the floor when I saw the first photos of the torture in Iraq. At that point I knew the war was lost. All the lives were lost for nothing. Nothing could be recovered or restored. We had lost our souls.
In a close race, any number of itty-bitty factors in swing states could make the difference. It could be lesbian midget dentists in Florida. It could be Amish speed dealers in Pennsylvania. Count on seeing a lot of articles talking about crucial swing demographic .
Posted by: rps at November 2, 2004 08:38 PM