FURTHER UPDATE: And as of 2:15 PM PST, Kerry 69.0%, Bush 28.0%...
UPDATE: And as of 12:45, Kerry 56.8%, Bush 38.7%...
It looks as though the Iowa Electronic Market is starting to move. As of 12:15 PM PST, Kerry 54.7%, Bush 45.9%...
Posted by DeLong at November 2, 2004 02:15 AM | TrackBackQuotes: Quotes current as of 14:15:02 CST, Tuesday, November 02, 2004.
Symbol Bid Ask Last Low High Average DEM04_G52 0.183 0.214 0.217 0.130 0.250 0.181 DEM04_L52 0.330 0.338 0.330 0.301 0.355 0.328 REP04_L52 0.342 0.347 0.345 0.321 0.398 0.368 REP04_G52 0.114 0.119 0.114 0.113 0.163 0.138
What do the four symbols mean? I found no explanation at IEM.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov at November 2, 2004 12:47 PMGot it. Never mind.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov at November 2, 2004 12:54 PMIs the Iowa Electronic Market a purely competitive market?
Posted by: bncthor at November 2, 2004 12:59 PMOnly John Zogby is raining on the parade now.
Posted by: Bob H at November 2, 2004 01:01 PMDEM04_G52 means Dems will win with Greater than 52% of the 2 party vote, I believe.
Posted by: Jake Walker at November 2, 2004 01:02 PMDEM04_G52 means Dems will win with Greater than 52% of the 2 party vote, I believe.
Posted by: Jake Walker at November 2, 2004 01:04 PMBrad writes:
>
> It looks as though the Iowa Electronic Market is starting to
> move. As of 12:15 PM PST, Kerry 54.7%, Bush 45.9%...
This move started yesterday. Bush started out at .55 in the winner-take-all but had fallen to .50 by late in the evening. My hunch is that the forces that kepta a pretty hard .51 floor for him for weeks decided to bail now that any possible press advantage in the IEM markets had gone away.
Bernard Yomtov writes:
> What do the four symbols mean? I found no explanation at
> IEM.
Yeah, they hide it fairly well. DEM04 and REP04 are I think clear; the G52 and L52 mean "greater than 52% of the two-party vote share" and "less than 52% of the two-party vote share" respectively. So the contract DEM04_G52 pays $1 just in case the Democratic candidate wins the 2-party popular vote AND has more than 52% of it as well. DEM04_L52 thus means Kerry wins, but with less than a 52% share of the two-party vote. The IEM split the straight DEM04 and REP04 contracts a few weeks back, I guess to see if people would start taking "collar" positions or do other neat things like that. In fact, trading was pretty thin throughout this season, even to the point where outright arbitrage was possible for a couple of days.
But now, now we have people bailing out of their Republican G52 positions in a serious way. Those are going for less than a dime apiece at the moment. It's now Kerry .60, Bush .40 on the IEM site at 3 pm Central.
Brad writes:
>
> It looks as though the Iowa Electronic Market is starting to
> move. As of 12:15 PM PST, Kerry 54.7%, Bush 45.9%...
This move started yesterday. Bush started out at .55 in the winner-take-all but had fallen to .50 by late in the evening. My hunch is that the forces that kepta a pretty hard .51 floor for him for weeks decided to bail now that any possible press advantage in the IEM markets had gone away.
Bernard Yomtov writes:
> What do the four symbols mean? I found no explanation at
> IEM.
Yeah, they hide it fairly well. DEM04 and REP04 are I think clear; the G52 and L52 mean "greater than 52% of the two-party vote share" and "less than 52% of the two-party vote share" respectively. So the contract DEM04_G52 pays $1 just in case the Democratic candidate wins the 2-party popular vote AND has more than 52% of it as well. DEM04_L52 thus means Kerry wins, but with less than a 52% share of the two-party vote. The IEM split the straight DEM04 and REP04 contracts a few weeks back, I guess to see if people would start taking "collar" positions or do other neat things like that. In fact, trading was pretty thin throughout this season, even to the point where outright arbitrage was possible for a couple of days.
But now, now we have people bailing out of their Republican G52 positions in a serious way. Those are going for less than a dime apiece at the moment. It's now Kerry .60, Bush .40 on the IEM site at 3 pm Central.
DEM04_G52: Kerry receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote
DEM04_L52: Kerry receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
REP04_L52: Bush receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
REP04_G52: Bush receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote
Posted by: Jonathan Lundell at November 2, 2004 01:12 PMHate to be picky, but the total is 100.6%. Is there an explanation as to why it's > 100%?
Posted by: james tsui at November 2, 2004 01:26 PMDEM04_G52: Kerry receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote
DEM04_L52: Kerry receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
REP04_L52: Bush receives the biggest share, but less that 52%, of the two-party popular vote
REP04_G52: Bush receives 52% or more of the two-party popular vote
Posted by: Jonathan Lundell at November 2, 2004 01:27 PMThanks to all.
Posted by: Bernard Yomtov at November 2, 2004 01:37 PM"Hate to be picky, but the total is 100.6%. Is there an explanation as to why it's > 100%?"
Those aren't % shares, those are bid and ask prices for a $1 return. Ie if you want to insure and buy all four positions you have to pay $1.006 (or $1.018 on Brad's table). If you hold all positions and want to sell them you would get a return of only $0.969 from the best bids.
4 p.m. exit polls
by kos
Tue Nov 2nd, 2004 at 20:41:53 GMT
Grain of salt, yadda, yadda...
These numbers come from Slate. I've taken out a couple numbers that are clearly from the first round:
NV CO NC PA OH FL MI NM WI
Kerry 48 46 49 54 50 50 51 50 51
Bush 50 53 51 45 49 49 47 48 46
GOTV!
James Tsui wrote:
Hate to be picky, but the total is 100.6%. Is there an explanation as to why it's > 100%?
Arbitrage opportunity!
Posted by: Charles Kinbote at November 2, 2004 02:00 PMGiven today's radical movement in both the Iowa market and TradeSports.com, could someone explain the value of these things again? They're supposed to be predictive, right? So why the crash (or, if you support Kerry, rally) on the very day they're supposed to help us predict?
Posted by: Derek Scruggs at November 2, 2004 02:00 PMGiven today's radical movement in both the Iowa market and TradeSports.com, could someone explain the value of these things again? They're supposed to be predictive, right? So why the crash (or, if you support Kerry, rally) on the very day they're supposed to help us predict?
Posted by: Derek Scruggs at November 2, 2004 02:02 PMGiven today's radical movement in both the Iowa market and TradeSports.com, could someone explain the value of these things again? They're supposed to be predictive, right? So why the crash (or, if you support Kerry, rally) on the very day they're supposed to help us predict?
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