Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal: A Weblog

Don't complain it's 6 in the morning here.

What's up with these exit polls??

Florida:
Kerry 52%/Bush 47%
(Actual: Bush 52%/48%)

Well, many close states aren't being called yet, but a lot of others seem very inaccurate, with Kerry getting 5-10% more in the exit polls than in the actual counts (with over half of precincts reporting, eg in Ohio).

What's wrong with the exit polls? These are seriously off!

People in Ohio reporting here:

http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/cat_ohio.html

Ohio reports from the ground here:

http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/cat_ohio.html

The exit polls suck, it could have been something with non-responders having different opinions than responders. I can tell you that Ohio is NOT looking good. If you look at the data from CNN and extrapolate for all the counties, you would expect Kerry to lessen the gap with about 40000. But he needs thrice as much. Sure, there is still some noise in the data, but it looks grim.

I would just like to thank my fellow Dems again for being a bunch of creeps. I guess the regular people of America had no reason to vote their pocketbooks because the Dems support (with the exception of paying down the deficit) all the stupid outsourcing, free trade policies that the Republicians do. Oh yeah, they will give us free health insurance, if they can ever get it passed. I was hoping that Thomas Frank's was wrong about Kansas, but he was right. Until the Dems wake up and start representing the little people again, they will lose elections. I am totally digusted right now and not at all proud to be a Democrat.

Ohio reports from the ground here:

http://www.command-post.org/2004/2_archives/cat_ohio.html

I would just like to thank my fellow Dems again for being a bunch of creeps. I guess the regular people of America had no reason to vote their pocketbooks because the Dems support (with the exception of paying down the deficit) all the stupid outsourcing, free trade policies that the Republicians do. Oh yeah, they will give us free health insurance, if they can ever get it passed. I was hoping that Thomas Frank's was wrong about Kansas, but he was right. Until the Dems wake up and start representing the little people again, they will lose elections. I am totally ticked off right now and not at all proud to be a Democrat. Let's get rid of the Slick Willie Democrat and go back to the FDR Democrat.

Oh come on, "la". Blaming the Democrats for this is like blaming Churchill for Hitler's rise. Get with it.

This outcome is because America is STUPID, on aggregate. NBC polls say something like 49% believe the war in Iraq was a good idea, but 53% believe it doesn't make us any more secure. How the hell do you get THAT result? Nearly 50% believe the war in Iraq is the same as the war on terrorism, not a separate endeavour, despite absolutely no evidence whatsoever, in fact to the contrary.

This country has unprecedentedly massive problems, and 4 more years of Bush and you might as well flush us and move to China, imho. This democracy may be on its way to being flushed, depending on tonight's outcome, and we're going to deserve every bit of it.

Regarding the exit polls, I don't know why they're so inaccurate but you can count on (segments of) the left blaming Diebold voting machines and electoral fraud. That perception is reason enough to have a verifiable paper trail, even if it's actually completely unfounded.

Ohio looks bad. Kerry is simply not making up any ground as more and more votes are counted. It will take something major to happen there.

I, for one, am damn tired of losing coin flip elections.

An interesting thing about the early exit polls is that the only one (so far) with a blatantly wrong direction was the one in Florida. That's two elections in a row where something very weird happened there.

Note that the "death match" 269-269 scenario is not only still possible, but not that unlikely, given that Kerry seems to have leads in every other state (beside New Mexico, a perpetual mess) at this instant.

Bye Bye Kerry. Hee hee!

Long night?

It looks like a long four years.

How do I become a Canadian?

We shouldn't become Canadians, children. What we should spend the next four years concentrating on is:

(1) Coming up with a clear and coherent defense policy -- which Kerry did not do. Had he followed the advice of both his advisor Graham Allison, and of George Will a few weeks ago -- that is, oppose the Iraq war because it seriously hinders our ability to prevent Iran from acquiring the Bomb, and to deal with any military crises produced by the fact that North Korea and Pakistan already have it -- he would very likely have won.

(2) Work like hell to make sure the Senate Democrats keep determinedly filibustering any really outrageous judges Bush nominates, no matter how much the pundits click their tongues at them -- not so much because of Roe vs. Wade, but because there's a danger that he will nominate judges willing to fiddle with election procedures. Combine that with the new advent of paper-trail-less voting machines, and you have the genuine potential for a self-sustaining dictatorship in this country.

Those are the only two ways Bush might really irreversibly wreck the country. Any other kind of damage he may do is reversible as soon as the people get a bellyful of it.

To become a Canadian you have to live there for 3 to 4 years and then apply. As long as your not in jail or have a criminal record you should be good to go. I have to go there to get my 1 year old a fucking flu shot, I might do some job hunting. My wife will probably divorce me because she hates the cold.

To become a Canadian you have to live there for 3 to 4 years and then apply. As long as your not in jail or have a criminal record you should be good to go. I have to go there to get my 1 year old a fucking flu shot, I might do some job hunting. My wife will probably divorce me because she hates the cold.

To become a Canadian you have to live there for 3 to 4 years and then apply. As long as your not in jail or have a criminal record you should be good to go. I have to go there to get my 1 year old a fucking flu shot, I might do some job hunting. My wife will probably divorce me because she hates the cold.

To become a Canadian you have to live there for 3 to 4 years and then apply. As long as your not in jail or have a criminal record you should be good to go. I have to go there to get my 1 year old a fucking flu shot, I might do some job hunting. My wife will probably divorce me because she hates the cold.

Only Idaho Democrat, is it true that to become a Canadian all you have to do is post the same comment 3 to 4 times?

if so, congratulations, eh?

Forget about Canada! How do I become an Argentinian?

http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/index.html

"Forget about Canada! How do I become an Argentinian?"

Congratulations! You just did.

I'm embarrassed to be an American. When I go to the Europe, or elsewhere, I will try to hide the fact that I am an American. If anyone found out, I would feel the need to apologize for over half my countrymen that voted for Bush.

I feel a little like I did when O.J. was found not guilty. All these people around me, that I thought were with me, are happy and celebrating something that I find sad.

The only good thing I see, is that when the economy tanks, the deficit increases, the trade imbalance widens, and the jobs picture does not improve over the next 4 years, maybe people will finally see that Bush and the Republican economic policies are a failure. They will have no one else to blame. Because, if Kerry was elected, and things improved, no doubt Republicans would say that Kerry was just riding Bush's wave of improvement.

I pray that Hillary is not the next best choice we have coming from the Democratic party or we will have another Republican president to follow Bush.

I previously wrote:

> Note that the "death match" 269-269 scenario is not only
> still possible, but not that unlikely, given that Kerry
> seems to have leads in every other state (beside New
> Mexico, a perpetual mess) at this instant.

Uh, nope. Looks like the single most likely outcomes now are:

Bush 286 Kerry 252
Bush 281 Kerry 257
Bush 274 Kerry 264
Bush 296 Kerry 242

Any outcome where Kerry wins Ohio is looking like worse than a 1% shot, barring amazing breaking news. More surprisingly, Bush is going to take the popular vote by more than 2 million, and might even take an absolute majority (first time that will have happened since 1988, I believe).

What I learn from this is that demagoguing on cultural issues really and truly pays. I don't really think Bush wins Ohio if they didn't have the gay marriage amendment, too.

" Forget about Canada! How do I become an Argentinian? "

just stay put for 3 or 4 years. then voila ...

On BBC News you can read comments from people around the world posting their views on the election:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/talking_point/3974095.stm

Some quotes:

"It looks as though George Bush is to be re-elected. I used to believe that Americans were largely well meaning, peace loving people. Now I feel that at least half of the country is driven by fear and selfishness to the detriment of themselves and the world."
--Michael, Himeji, Japan

"I just woke up to find Bush in the lead. I feel physically sick. I wish I could go back to bed and get up in another four years."
--Sarah, Brussels

"One election, so many voices and opinions. It saddens me to see the impact George Bush has had on the image and popularity of America and Americans. If only the people back in the states can see the long term damage he has caused then maybe they would not take the approach of better the devil you know."
--Richard, Hong Kong

only idaho dem - why u have to go canada 4 flu-shot?
- curious australian

btw - commiserations to u all (and to us)

There will be more than a 3 million vote difference between the candidate, and an electoral college majority for George Bush. The exit polls were thoroughly distorted. Democrats have to think through policy again.

On the plus side the Republicans will have to sort out the fiscal and military messes they have created. On the negative side they have not shown themselves capable of doing so. On the seriously negative side the Supreme Court will soon be dominated for the next few decades by people who believe the world started in 4004 BC.

The feces has hit the large revolving blades.

Let the Republican Civil War begin.

>Those are the only two ways Bush might really irreversibly wreck the country.

Don't forget to throw in ANWR and old-growth forests in general. They can't be unwound like Reagan's deficits were.

Soon there will be those (even in our own Democratic Party) calling for bipartisan cooperation with the new Bush administration in the interests of America.

I say fuck 'em!

We should adopt the same slash and burn mentality that the Rethugs did during the Clinton administration. In the immortal words of Grover Norquist: "Bipartisanship is like date rape."

Any Democrats who are too willing to compromise with the Bush administration should be hounded out of office, the very same way that the Rethugs hounded the moderates out of their own party.

Yes, we are at war. We are at war for the soul of America. No prisoners!

Looking ahead to the next elections: of course it would be nice if the public realised in a couple of years that the country's problems are of GOP's doing; but I'm not confident of that - Fox will pin all the problems on terrorism, the World economy and the liberal media. So the fight will be just as tough next time as it has been this time.

So to Lise's point: what kind of policy changes to the Dems now have to make to compete effectively?

I was worried enough already about the Dem-Rep consensus towards belligerent, anti-Palestine foreign policy (whether uni- or multi-lateral)...is this going to shift even further to the right?

My reading of the Ohio and Florida exit polls (on cnn.com) is that: (i) women deserted Kerry (eg, Bush gained 5 points among Ohio and Florida women compared to 2000); and (ii) JK's share of the Democrats vote was a couple of points behind W's share of the Republicans => women registered as Democrats voting for W cost Kerry Ohio and gave W much of his margin in Florida. Then compare Wisconsin to Ohio. Kerry got enough of the women in Wisconsin to win narrowly there; W only gained 3 points among Wisconsin women compared to what he did in 2000.

It is amazing to me that W scored high in the exit polls on honesty and being a strong leader, but you have to credit the Republican propaganda machine for that.

When: (i) the next terrorist attack hits; (ii) the dollar tanks; and (iii) Andrea Mitchell's husband raises interest rates as a response to (ii), I am going to have very little sympathy for our compatriots who were taken in by W.

The Democratic Party needs a good purge. And we can start with Zell Miller.

Forget about being a Canadian or Argentinian! How do I become a Chinese? Atleast they're honest about their 1-party rule!

> When: (i) the next terrorist attack hits; [...]
> I am going to have very little sympathy for our
> compatriots who were taken in by W.

When the next terrorist attack hits, unfortunately, the Bush II.2 Administration will use it as an excuse to clamp down total control on the country. Think Ashcroft without inhibitions.

Cranky

AntiFascist,

"Any Democrats who are too willing to compromise with the Bush administration should be hounded out of office, the very same way that the Rethugs hounded the moderates out of their own party....Yes, we are at war. We are at war for the soul of America. No prisoners!"

Bravo! Music to my ears! :^)

The election results are further evidence of the low quality of American public education. Our schools have produced a public with the analytic capacity of eels.

democracy, democracy.

> When: (i) the next terrorist attack hits; [...]
> I am going to have very little sympathy for our
> compatriots who were taken in by W.

The 3 most likely targets for an attack are solidly blue states (NY,CA,DC). When Americans state that terrorism is an issue there is apparently a difference in opinion between those who consider themselves to be the targets and those who are not targets but see terrorism as an insult to their nation.

You are all under arrect for crimes against the State. Report to the nearest detention center or police station immediately. Your punishment shall be determined by tribunal. Any attempt at escape will be seen as an admission of guilt, with punishment dealt immediately.

Losers.

Go fuck yourself, Sullivan. You're still an idiot today, and so is your candidate.

For the statisticians out there:

“Using the data available at 9:30pm PST on CNN’s website, I found the percent bonus that Bush seemed to gain over the exit poll in each state….. we would expect the Bonus distribution to be a bell curve centered around zero. …..Instead, we have a normal distribution centered around two percent. Bush seems to have done 2% better in all the states than would be expected by CNN’s exit poll.”
from
http://www.barakyedidia.com/Bushbonus/

Yes/No/Maybe?

Discuss.

In my mind, the story of this election is moral values. BC clearly had a strong GOTV effort, but it was not about Iraq. Unless and until Democrats find a way to keep wedge issues like the gay marriage amendment off the state ballots, Repubs will continue to trounce them.

It's nice to think that we're on the right side of history vis a vis gay marriage, but compare it to the death penalty. It was briefly outlawed by the Supreme Court 30 years ago. Death penalty opponents probably thought that battle was won. Guess again.

How weak is John Kerry as a candidate? How weak is the Democratic party as an organization?

If this wasn't a opportunity ripe for Dems to do something, I don't know what would constitute one. They chose the least offensive NotBush they could find. He made the world speculate endlessly on how he was 'really' different from the president, spinning fantasies about the twin powers of his charm and his magic jobs wand to try to make the difference clear. He did NOT, local comments to the contrary, lay out believable distinctions on important issues between himself and the president.

Look at the reasons the internet undecided went to Kerry. Drezner and several others listed his evangelical unwillingness to modify his positions and his poor decision making process. But we are left to ask, what sort of 'reality based community' believes that jobs will suddenly appear or that the EU will love Kerry so much they will jump in with both feet? How often did Kerry supporters have to argue that he didn't REALLY mean what he said about outsourcing, that he didn't REALLY mean that his only different plan for Iraq depended on the EU violating its own interests to help him out, that his superior decision making process would lead him to ... WHAT?

If Kerry fails, he fails because he was too much of a coward to draw bright and believable distinctions on the key issues of this election.

Patrick Sullivan shows all the grace one would expect of him.

This is the person who posted this little gem in the Semi-Daily Journal thread “The Going Gets Even Weirder . . . “ on September 16 at 8:07 AM:

“Kerry is so hopeless, he has to rely on making stuff up. Bush might win every state except Massachusetts--in fact, I'm not sure Kerry is even popular enough to take that state as McGovern did.”

I believe that the terrorists have got exactly what they want - a paranoid, divided America.

Why does the system make it so hard for urban Americans to vote?

Don't shoot Kerry. This election is less about us than it is about them. Evangelical National Libertarianism haunts America. The party of hate advanced on all fronts and Satan laughed.

Think twice before you recriminate. The ennemy is unbelievably EVIL.

The Swift Boat veterans had Kerry pegged all along. End of story.

In fact it is hard not to think that this election was gamed in FL and OH.
But we have to conceed that a good 45% of the electorate have perverted values.

In their hatred of homosexuals, their fear of blacks, their blind faith in a harsh God, they have delivered the most important Democracy in the world to a vile group of bullies, thieves and liars.

Ware your flag pins upside down from today until Congress and the Presidency are liberated. America is in distress.

I agree with Mike. The root cause here is poor education. A singular inability for people to assess fact-based arguments, to listen and read critically. Without that, one bases one's decisions on things like faith. And certainty becomes comforting in an unintelligibly, complex world.

My wife teaches at Boston University. She finds the lack of capacity to think critically extraordinary. They were just never taught this capacity. Without this, how does one become to hear the din of spin for what it is?

'The south shall rise again'

Four more wars

Will we ever discover if the paperless, touch-tone voter computerized machine was 'hacked' into?
Will we see that exit polls did not align correctly in pivotal counties in certain states where these paper-less machines were in place.

Republicans were really scared for awhile when they saw massive, unprecedented voter reply. It's philosphy is to keep certain voters from voting in any sneaky way possible, so the Diebold machines were the back-up plan. It's a new world order.

'The South Shall Rise Again'

The 1st portion of history, they use Christianity to determine that people that are different from them are only worthy of being enslaved or disdained ( and not saved).
Now, we have same thing, only the damage is still being perpetrated. Now, the south uses its own fear of people who are different to fire its cannons. It loves cannons and explosions.

also, Sullivan is right. Democrats are losers. Until Democrats really learn to tell lies unashamed, peddle misconceptions, fight dirty, atempt to keep Southern Christians from voting through voter intimidation and misinformation, then we can be winners- see the message that sent to American youth. If you can cheat, lie and trick- it is OK, as long as you have courts set-up to fix it behind the closed door. Nice guys finish last.

Let's re-district the voter day to a diifernt day of the week...I say, let's change the voter day to Sunday, then pass out flyers down south saying Jesus says don't vote on Sunday ' cause thas a holy day, OK".
DO it!
The new American message is to be a "tricky Dick Nixon'

"Republicans were really scared for awhile when they saw massive, unprecedented voter reply."

This sort of thinking may prevent future Dems from attaining office. It is obvious at this point that the more voters = Dem victory meme so often encountered in the left echo chamber is just not true. A failure by the Democrat party to wrestle with what this means would doom future Dem candidates.

I believe that the terrorists have got exactly what they want - a paranoid, divided America.

Sure, but if it hadn't been terrorists it would have been something else. The USA just plain isn't a single nation any more, and our various nations have stopped getting along.

Another four really long years
heavy sigh .......

Pat Sullivan: "Losers."

NARROW losers, Patrick. That won't be hard to corrrect at all with a very slight move toward the Right on foreign policy -- especially after the general public gets sick of listening to Bush's core constituency rant continuously about the evil of homosexuals in particular and non-fundamentalists in general.

Sorry DeLong, no economics advisor job for you. Too many nasty haters in the goverment as it is.

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Thanks for that insightful comment! It makes interesting reading, especially when I need a payday advance .

Vivid Page

Some believe in God but some not it is not right. What a shame!

Just super