Jeff Faux of the Economic Policy Institute asks some questions about the Clinton administration's understanding of what the effects of NAFTA would be:
Posted by DeLong at January 24, 2004 11:09 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postJeff: Clinton's mantra [on NAFTA] was "jobs-jobs-jobs." But I have always doubted that the... [administration] economists... believed that NAFTA was going to be an important job stimulus to the US economy.
Me: I think we in the Clinton administration did produce a small "200,000 net jobs" number--or I have the memory that Sherman Robinson and I did, although I forget whether it ever got approved at higher levels. The argument was that NAFTA would lead to a somewhat stronger peso as foreign capital became more willing to invest in Mexico in response, and that as a result the with-NAFTA scenario had more U.S. net exports and a short-run Keynesian boost to employment of 200,000 or so relative to the no-NAFTA scenario. The argument was then hedged with the qualifiers that (a) NAFTA had to actually work as a device generating an inflow of capital to Mexico, and (b) that this was a short-run immediate post-recession gain only: that in the long run the level of employment is set by the Federal Reserve in the Eccles Building, and the way to speak of freer trade is not as job gain or job loss but "job shift"--hopefully from lower-paid industries in which American workers are less productive and we have a comparative disadvantage to higher-paid industries in which American workers are more productive and we have a comparative advantage blah, blah, blah. Worry about making sure American job-losers are compensated.
But whatever pieces of paper we produced then went through the hands of people like Rahm Emmanuel, who cherry-picked the parts of the analysis he liked for his "message" (and Rahm has, shall we say, little attachment to the principle that raising the level of the debate is always good for the left, because we on the left almost always have the policy substance on our side). Given a press corps that has no knowledge of economic magnitudes and an extraordinary aversion to doing any form of semi-serious research, providing a short-run employment boost equivalent to an interest rate reduction of 0.1%" gets turned into "jobs-jobs-jobs" in the White House Briefing Room and then in the pages of the newspaper.
Then the message was further processed through Bill Clinton's mind. As to Bill Clinton's mind. I *think*, I don't know, I don't know the guy well enough. I *think* that the key factor is that Clinton was governor of a small state for more than a decade, and that a big part of his job as Governor of Arkansas was bringing investment into Arkansas and selling Arkansas's exports outside the state. And he'd also spent a bunch of time in the close embrace of Tyson Chicken and Wal-Mart. These give him, I think, a cast of mind that had an instinctive resonance with export-led Keynesian growth ("we're going to employ Americans in good jobs building and selling Mexico the capital equipment it needs to industrialize") and also had few illusions about the quality of much food-processing and textile employment ("so we trade away a bunch of chicken-plucking and polyester-spinning jobs to Mexico; the jobs we get in return (if the Federal Reserve does its job) have to be better ones than those"). Sperling always tried to keep the balance between number and quality of jobs: "good jobs at good wages." Clinton--on the few occasions I saw him in small groups--would always say, "Yes, yes, I know, Gene. But that's too complicated. I need to simplify." And he would always simplify to the "more jobs" rather than the "better jobs" position.
Jeff: In a recent op-ed in the Times, Stiglitz claimed that they told Clinton that there would not be much benefit to the US economy but that potential, and unfortunately unspecified, "geopolitical benefits were far more important."... I can imagine what some geopolitical reasons might be. One might have been to lock in a low wage labor supply for US corporations in order to compete with the Japanese threat.
Me: That was what Mickey Kantor used to say. It used to give me hives.
Jeff: Another might have been the strong desire to keep the Mexican Left from gaining power -- a point Mickey Kantor once blurted out in debate with me at the time.
Me: Never heard that. At least, I do not remember hearing that in my corner of the Treasury. I don't know what kind of President of Mexico Cuauhtemoc Cardenas would have made (although I would not have been optimistic). What I heard--and I think this is Stiglitz's "geopolitical reasons"--was always along the lines of "Salinas de Gortari and his wing of the PRI want to modernize, to reform, to move Mexico closer to a democracy and to try to speed-up industrialization by funding investment in Mexico by borrowing capital from overseas. If he can show potential FD investors and bond-buyers that Mexican factories have guaranteed tariff-free access to the largest and richest consumer market in the world, the chances of a good outcome will be substantially increased. We can help them--and also get a small net benefit for the U.S. economy. And God knows they need help: look at Mexico's rate of population growth and the number of new workers who need jobs every year."
Then the second-line arguments would come: possible slowdowns in immigration pressure, want to make sure Mexico becomes a democracy and becomes a democracy peacefully, and so on. But the dominant argument at least in the Treasury-CEA circles I traveled in was that we had a moral duty to give Mexican reformers whatever help we could, at least whatever help we could easily give.
Jeff: A related specific question is about the 94-95 peso crisis, which I alluded to in our debate. In the book you and I just read, Rubin says he was surprised by the crisis -- and somewhere says something to the effect that he didn't know much about the Mexican economy. But... hot money propelled by the NAFTA hype in stock market boiler-rooms all over the country, plus a fixed exchange rate plus heavy crony capitalism in the Salinas government.... Certainly someone at the CEA familiar with Mexico and common sense would have pointed this out...
Me: Hard as it may be to believe, no. I didn't see everything--I was, after all, only Lowly Analytical Worm Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Clinton administration--but in the circles I traveled in failure to approve NAFTA was always seen as much, much more likely to bring on a peso crisis. The mood in my corner of the Treasury after the NAFTA vote was that a peso crisis was something our administration would not have to deal with. Even after SubCommander Marcos, that was our view. It wasn't until the druglords and the PRI began settling their disputes via assassination, and we got a look at the components of capital flows in the summer of 1994, and really not even then, that active consideration of peso crisis scenarios began. (Or if there were people running such scenarios earlier, I never heard about them.) One indication: If I recall correctly, Treasury didn't have a Bank-of-Mexico watcher until early 1995. Treasury International Affairs was under a tight Congressionally-mandated personnel cap, and they thought there were more important things for their limited staff to do than have somebody shadow what the Banco de Mexico was doing full-time. If I remember correctly, it was only at the start of 1995 that my boss Alicia Munnell took one of her domestic-side monetary economists and told her, "Your job is now to shadow the Banco de Mexico for Summers."
But Remember: I'm the guy who wrote Larry Summers a memo about Rudi Dornbusch's "Mexico needs to devalue" paper. My memo said--and I said to Rudi at the time--that whether the peso was overvalued or not in the summer of 1994 depended on what one thought the long-run rate of net capital inflow to Mexico was: if (as Rudi thought) the rate was zero, then the peso was overvalued. But if Mexico was going to run a capital inflow of $10 billion a year, the 1994 peso was fairly valued. And if Mexico was going to run a bigger capital inflow in the mid and late 1990s than it had in the early 1990s, the 1994 peso was undervalued.
And we--or at least I--really did believe that after NAFTA we would see a sustained, substantial, long-term wave of investment in newly-neoliberalized Mexico that would produce a substantial U.S.-Mexican bilateral export surplus for a decade or so. My implicit models were of the late-nineteenth century industrialization experience of places like Australia, Canada, and Argentina.
And of course you laugh. You were right. The major consideration was not financiers in New York saying, "Look at how fast Mexico is going to grow now that it has guaranteed tariff-free access to the largest and richest consumer market in the world. We'd better invest some money there." The major consideration was the Mexican upper class saying, "My God! This place is still a zoo! We need to move huge chunks of our wealth into Citigroup so that in case something really bad happens--and we have to make a run for it in the Learjet or paddle across the Rio Grande in a rubber boat--we won't be broke."
It *was* my lifetime analytical nadir. (So far, that is.)
So far, Mexico has indeed democratised, and NAFTA can claim some credit, surely.
About the Mexican upper class behind the Peso crash: What is the evidence that NAFTA precipitated their capital flight or the peso crisis more generally? Could you not have had upper-class capital flight without NAFTA (as indeed in many other countries)? Or did NAFTA require the lifting of domestic capital controls which had previously restrained this?
Posted by: Will on January 24, 2004 11:37 AMI'll confirm Brad's recollection. I was the research assistant/errand person from Dr. Munnell (assistant secretary) who was tasked with the job of helping out the Domestic monetary guy to look at the Peso Crisis, that was in early 1995 if I remember correctly.
Posted by: SmallFry on January 24, 2004 12:15 PM
Given what has happened in Mexico since NAFTA --
a massive currency crise leading to a major
recession followed up by China dispacing their exports to the US because of the misvalued Chinese currency -- I do not understand all this debate about it. No one can hope to untangle
any relatively minor impact of NAFTA on either the US or Mexican economy. In theory, given that everything else is unchanged, NAFTA should have been a minor positive for the Mexican & US economy. But that everything else is unchanged is such a massive false premise how can anybody hope to do any analysis of whether NAFTA actually was a positive or negative.
DeLong's intellectual honesty and candor is remarkable in this world. Great stuff.
And just because smart US policy analysts couldn't predict human behavior in Mexico doesn't mean that they did a bad job, or that NAFTA was bad policy in any respect.
At the margin, it's not that relevant whether or not NAFTA cost the US jobs or not - though I suspect that it did - considered in a vacuum, NAFTA could have cost the US economy several hundred thousand low paying jobs and still been a great, great boon to the average American by producing lower-cost goods that helped raise the overall standard of living in the US despite the slightly lower aggregate income levels (resulting from the loss of low income jobs).
And importantly, NAFTA did not take place in a vacuum and can't be looked at that way. Lowering the friction of global trade and increasing total export/import volumes is critical to improving the world's standard of living over the 1990-2050 timeframe. Losing NAFTA at the outset would have been a huge setback to the whole process.
That's my *opinion*, and I'm sticking to it.
Posted by: Anarchus on January 24, 2004 01:24 PMYour honesty is commendable, almost breathtaking.
I wouldn't recognize a capital flow if I were drowning in one, but I do understand Anarchus' comment: "NAFTA could have cost the US economy several hundred thousand low paying jobs and still been a great, great boon to the average American by producing lower-cost goods that helped raise the overall standard of living in the US despite the slightly lower aggregate income levels (resulting from the loss of low income jobs).
Briefly, we'll give up several 100,000 low-paying jobs so that those who still have jobs will get better prices at Wal-Mart and Winn-Dixie. What a deal!
I have an idea. We can lower prices still further by purchasing our punditry from overseas. We'll call it "Pundits for Peanuts." Newspapers, now at 50 cents in most places, could go back to 35 cents. TV could charge less for commercials on their news shows and pass the savings on to private enterprise, which would quickly pass the savings along to consumers. Cable subscribers would see lower premiums. And who knows? With competition the quality of the punditry might improve.
Posted by: Handy Fuse on January 24, 2004 02:27 PMHandy Fuse comments:
And who knows? With competition the quality of the punditry might improve.
There seems little downside. How much worse can it get (present company excluded, of course)?
Posted by: Pundited Out on January 24, 2004 02:51 PMHandy, here's an idea for you: Increase each American's taxes by just $100, and then you can just give a few hundred thousand people $20-$30K a year to sit around and do nothing. They don't even have to work, and you'll have created a few hundred thousand jobs. What a deal!
Posted by: Steve Carr on January 24, 2004 07:44 PMBrad, do you have any idea of why it didn't became a 19th century industrialization process?
Living closely to one of those stories (Argentina) our idea of the period is that there was a big increase in productivity of something that was very valuable at the time (food,especially meat), that couldn't be produced somewhere else easily and that thanks to the WWs that condition remained for a while. But when the war ended and prices for those exports began to fall the party was over.
"Handy, here's an idea for you: Increase each American's taxes by just $100, and then you can just give a few hundred thousand people $20-$30K a year to sit around and do nothing. They don't even have to work, and you'll have created a few hundred thousand jobs. What a deal!"
Ah, welfare queens! Actually there was such a time. The recipients didn't actually do nothing. They did socially useful work (even art projects). It was the time of the WPA, and the deal was the New Deal.
We would have a hard time doing that now. Our captains of industry would complain about the competition, and they would win.
Meanwhile, some states take those same unemployed workers, imprison them and force them to work. When the Soviet Union or China did this, we called it "slave labor." At least, private companies are still complaining about the competition. See http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/opinion/2001825583_prisonlabor30.html.
"I don't know what kind of President of Mexico Cuauhtemoc Cardenas would have made (although I would not have been optimistic). What I heard--and I think this is Stiglitz's "geopolitical reasons"--was always along the lines of "Salinas de Gortari and his wing of the PRI want to modernize, to reform, to move Mexico closer to a democracy and to try to speed-up industrialization by funding investment in Mexico by borrowing capital from overseas."
Why the doubts about Cardenas? Not my candidate in Mexico, but certainly would have been better in every way than Salinas, in the same way that Gore would be better in every way than Bush. In any event, the picture of Salinas as a reformer, modernizer, and democratizer should cause one to retch. It was bullshit then, but everybody should know it's bullshit now. The PRI ran the state for its own interests, and Salinas did the same for his family and friends. The language of the Nafta debate is suspect not because it talks about "free trade," but because it takes at face value the PRI and Salinas' advocacy of modernization and democratization. And it's not just the Mexican side that might lead one to be cynical.
Though cynicism is quite diminished after reading your thoughtful post; really admirable Prof. DeLong.
Posted by: david on January 25, 2004 07:37 AMRE: david: “The language of the Nafta debate is suspect not because it talks about "free trade," but because it takes at face value the PRI and Salinas' advocacy of modernization and democratization.”
A role model for Chalabai perhaps? Good story.
Post Script to closed thread about 401 (K) Plans
RE: Bernard Yomtov ; “ but haven't there been cases of retirees losing promised benefits when their former employers went bankrupt, or were merged?”
Absolutely true - the PBGC is now facing bankruptcy for that very reason, jeopardizing a part of my relatives’ retirement portfolio (see link.)
http://www.pbgc.gov/news/speeches/testimony_101403.htm
If I can add a final caveat about the economic sophistication of the average worker - or lack thereof - some people need to get out more. I would not waste too much time worrying about the incompetence in portfolio management. I recommend focusing on the supporting policies that expand the access of wage earners to the capital markets. I do not have the exact cite, but my memory tells me that towards the end of Reagan’s second term, Congress restricted the IRA plans by capping employer contributions, I believe. This is unconscionable policy.
Handy Fuse:
If short-run job creation is the sole standard for judging the success of policies, then why not have a federal ban on the use of bulldozers so that road construction requires hand grading and hand ditch digging?
When Thomas Edison invented the light bulb, he screwed the candlemakers, just as Gutenberg screwed the scribes with his printing press innovation. But the typical person in society was made better off, which ought to be the objective of policy changes . . . . .
Posted by: Anarchus on January 25, 2004 01:16 PMNAFTA is another example of the government selling out Americans for doubtful geopolitical reasons. Am I crazy of did politicans used to ask themselves what was best for the American people instead of what was best for their global ambitions? I don't want to pay for the world's education, etc. I don't want global governors for President. Can't we have someone who will represent the American people and not please in China, India, etc.?
"When Thomas Edison invented the light bulb, . . .the typical person in society was made better off. . ." --Anarchus
The lightbulb was invented in 1879. The *grand-children* of the typical person in society were made better off, especially after Roosevelt set up a program of farmer-owned collectives to create Rural Electrification in 1935.
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