January 24, 2004

Household vs. Payroll Survey Estimates of Employment Once Again

For background, take a look at http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/briefingpapers_bp148. It's quite good on all these issues. Then go to http://www.gpoaccess.gov/indicators/browse.html, and download some recent issues of Economic Indicators.

What is going on is roughly as follows:

The BLS just reported that it estimated from its Household Survey that in December of 2003 there were (a seasonally adjusted) 138,479,000 people employed. (Economic Indicators p. 11). The BLS just reported that it estimated from its Business ("Establishment", "Payroll") Survey that in December of 2003 there were (a seasonally adjusted) 130,124,000 people on nonfarm payrolls. (Economic Indicators p. 14).

The BLS reported three years ago that it estimated from its Household Survey that in January of 2001 there were (a seasonally adjusted) 135,999,000 people employed. (Economic Indicators p. 11). The BLS reported three years ago that it estimated from its Business ("Establishment", "Payroll") Survey that in January of 2001 there were (a seasonally adjusted) 132,428,000 people on nonfarm payrolls. (Economic Indicators p. 14).

Subtract from today's nonfarm payroll number that of January 2001 and you get -2.3 million jobs.

Subtract from today's household-survey number that of January 2001 and you get... well, you can't do that. The BLS says not to do that. The BLS, you see, calculates household-survey concept employment by multiplying its survey's employment-to-population ratio by Census estimates of population. The Census periodically adjusts its estimates of population. The BLS then uses the new Census estimates going forward. But doesn't retrospectively adjust its estimates going backward. (See J. Bradford DeLong (2004) (http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/movable_type/2004_archives/000100.html).)

You can adjust the household-survey numbers in order to try to make them compatible across time--and Elise Gould of the Economic Policy Institute does this in Elise Gould (2003), "Measuring Employment Across the Recovery" (Washington: EPI) (http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/briefingpapers_bp148). If you do that you get numbers like 138,220,000 for household-survey concept employment in January of 2001. And that gets a household-survey concept change since January 2001 of +260,000--an incredibly lousy job performance over a period in which the working-age population has grown by more than 6,000,000.

But there's no doubt that the household survey and the establishment survey are pointing in somewhat different directions. Job performance has been lousy according to the household survey. Job performance has been dead-skunk stinking putrid according to the establishment survey.

This divergence is troubling. The differences between household survey and establishment survey--missing startup firms in the second, the presence of farmers and some of the self-employed in the first, the fact that people with two jobs are double-counted in the establishment survey but not in the household survey, et cetera--should not cause big differences in trends between the counts of the two surveys. But they do. (And, in fact, they always have: I remember that Michael and Dan Froomkin's father Joseph Froomkin knows this stuff well. I remember him lecturing me on the discrepancy between these two measures in... it must have been 1977 or so.... Always have a hell of a time understanding him when he gets really excited because his Russian accent gets much, much, much thicker...) Some people (including some I respect a lot) think that the discrepancy will be narrowed when the establishment survey undergoes its next round of statistical revisions. But the BLS says not: it says its next round of revisions is going to *reduce* the establishment survey totals.

When not in spin mode, the knowledgeable say: trust the establishment survey much more than the household survey. That's what the Commissioner of Labor Statistics says (Kathleen Utgoff. 2003. Commissioner, Bureau of Labor Statistics before the Joint Economic Committee. U.S. Congress, September 5.) That's what CBO says (Congressional Budget Office. 2003. The Budget and Economic Outlook: An Update. Washington, D.C.: Congressional Budget Office.). The payroll (establishment) survey is the one that Wall Street reacts to--and they have an incentive to get it right. The payroll survey has a much bigger sample--600 times the sample size, in fact--there's much less statistical noise in it.

When in spin mode, people lie like rugs and say whatever is politically convenient.


Another way to look at it is along the following lines. There are always some people who tell the household survey interviewers that they are working, but whose putative employers tell the payroll survey people that they aren't on the payroll. Such people are, to put it politely, "marginally attached" workers. They have what Cool Hand Luke would call a "failure to communicate" with the people who they think they are working for. Perhaps they worked for them a couple of weeks ago, but aren't working now. Perhaps... there are a whole bunch of potential "perhapses." In this case, the message to draw from the discrepancy is that the past three years have seen this class of "marginally attached" workers (or confused nonworkers) grow by 2.6 million. That's an interesting fact.

But that is a fact only if both the household and the payroll surveys are accurate. And odds are that one of them is giving false signals--probably the household survey. But I don't think anybody really knows for sure right now...

Posted by DeLong at January 24, 2004 07:41 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

I think the Household Survey counts a lot of self employed 'consultants' who used to have Establishment Survey jobs.

Posted by: Bram on January 24, 2004 08:03 PM

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"And that gets a household-survey concept change since January 2001 of +260,000"

Which is in the ballpark of the increase in real estate agents during the same period.

Non-employed, no-benefits, paid only commission real estate agents.

Posted by: Jon H on January 24, 2004 08:05 PM

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My question probably doesn't shed any light on the matter, but anyway: I have a lot of friends who have full-time jobs -- that is, they have contracts and are guaranteed to be paid for a year -- but who are treated, for tax purposes, as independent contractors. (Yes, this means they don't get benefits and they have to pay their own SS and Medicare taxes. On the other hand, it also means that if they get fired, they still get paid.) These people are definitely working. But I assume they would be listed as unemployed in the payroll survey. Is that assumption correct?

Posted by: Steve Carr on January 24, 2004 08:21 PM

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Not employed, but yes. The spooky thing is not that the HS and the PS are different, but that the difference grows and shrinks so much in such short timespans.

Posted by: Brad DeLong on January 24, 2004 08:34 PM

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re: "the difference grows and shrinks so much in such short timepans"
The larger survey serves as a baseline independant of the subjective whims of the phone call survey. The latter has a history of volatility and they should do something about it. Make it larger. Carry it out over a longer period. Screen the callers in more depth to weed out the manic/depressive candidates. etc.
But really what hinges on this issue? Isn't the real point that good jobs are not increasing? That underemployment is. That the future is less likely to see careers with companies like IBM and more likely to see those pesky paycheques as "a consultant"?

Posted by: calmo on January 24, 2004 10:33 PM

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Heck, maybe this is another way-station on the path to South Americanization of the US that the Bushies are striving for: massive growth in the black economy.

Posted by: Maynard Handley on January 24, 2004 10:49 PM

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From BLS, looks like "Civilian Labor Force, 16 years and over (seasonally adjusted)" grew from 143,787,000 in January 2001 to 146,878,000 in December 2003, i.e. close to 3 million. On the other hand, "Civilian noninstitutional population, 16 years and over" grew by 8.7 million in the same time period.

What are you basing the 6 million increase in "working-age population" off of?

Also, aren't all of the arguments for the reliability of the payroll survey over the household survey based on assumptions that there is nothing systemic that would affect the outcomes. The Free Agent Nation hypothesis would be that there is something going on that makes one more accurate than the other, despite sample size differences. Something like 60% of my friends from college have jobs that would not count in the payroll survey -- none would necessarily be considered "underemployed". This bias would exist on top of the "firm-birth" problem during a recovery.

Finally, these do have to be looked at in the context of the unemployment rate. Obviously, this has gone down because of the decrease in the labor participation rate -- but why? I'd posit two drivers. First, dual income families that took on a second job during the boom are deciding to give one up in the current job market. People have been quick to rule this out since the gender breakdown of participation rate does not show a preponderance of women dropping out. But rationally you'd expect the lower earners to drop out, which may or may not be a women in this day and age.

Second, though probably smaller, a return to graduate education (and other job training) caused by the recession. I know many people who decided that the time was right to go to business or law school given the bad economy. They're still there, and will be another year or so, despite the recovery.

Posted by: richard on January 24, 2004 10:50 PM

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Is there any attempt made to account for people holding multiple jobs concurrently?

Frex, days as a receptionist and a few evenings at a retailer.

Posted by: Jon H on January 24, 2004 10:59 PM

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Actually, I read the EPI Gould briefing more closely and now I'm confused. How does he come up with a January 2001 employment number of 138,220,000? The BLS says 137,790,000 is the number of employed. That's a difference of 430,000. Given that the population estimate change in 2003 led to an increase in jobs of 576,000, this seems reasonable at first.

But then I noticed, buried in the text, that another adjustment had been done in January of 2000. So if two adjustments were done three years apart, and the total change was 576,000, why would he assume that in one year a full 75% (430/576) of the discrepancy would already have manifested?!?

From Table 1 in the link, it's hard to tell his methodology for spreading out the error back through time. But if it's not straight line, I see no justification for front-loading it.....

Posted by: richard on January 24, 2004 11:29 PM

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This, to me, is another example of a story under-reported in the media. This whole issue of under-employment, declining job quality, job exodus, etc should be headlined every day. It is the real story of what is going on in this country. I think the media are really failing in their responsibility. They should also send investigative reporters over to India (for example) and find out how many new tech jobs were produced last year. The Indian tech industry grew 26% last year. What American companies expanded over there and contracted here?

Posted by: camille roy on January 24, 2004 11:52 PM

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From paragraph 9 or so:

"(And, in fact, they always have: Your father knows this stuff well. I remember him lecturing me on the discrepancy between these two measures in... it must have been 1977 or so.... Always have a hell of a time understanding him when he gets really excited because his Russian accent gets much, much, much thicker...)"

... huh?

Posted by: Carlos on January 25, 2004 12:17 AM

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I agree with Brad that the strange thing about the difference between the two surveys isn't that they're different, but that the gap has widened in such a short time. Although many of my friends have these full-time "non-employed" jobs, I don't think that many of them have been created in the last couple of years.

On the other hand, I think we need to be careful about these assumptions that non-traditional jobs are worse jobs, and that the story we're seeing is one of "declining job quality," a dearth of "good jobs," etc. I don't want to write paeans to Free Agent Nation, but the jobs my friends have are good jobs, and give them more control over their time and working conditions than most traditional jobs do. The absence of benefits, meanwhile, is only a problem because of the screwy way the U.S. health insurance and social-security systems work, and things have been getting significantly better on the health-insurance front, between tax deductibility of all premiums and the rise of organizations you can buy relatively cheap health insurance through. And since the money that companies pay for benefits is money they don't pay their employees in cash, the nominal salaries of people without benefits are higher.

I have no idea if the difference between the household and payroll surveys actually reflects a substantive change in the way people are employed (I suspect that it doesn't, because the time period isn't long enough). But if it does, I think the thing to do is not lament the disappearance of full-time jobs at IBM, but rather make it as easy as possible for all workers to have access to affordable health insurance, to save for retirement, engage in continuing education, etc. The fact that our social-insurance system was built on the idea that people would (and should) be tied to one employer for their whole lives is a historical accident, and was always bad policy. It seems like the time is coming to change it.

Posted by: Steve Carr on January 25, 2004 07:38 AM

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Clearly, this is one of Dr. Delong's favorite topics, and with good reason. IMHO, he is dead right about the relative merits of the establishment survey. And he is right that those who see it otherwise are either politically motivated (or, as I have observed, short 2-year notes).

But I enjoy nit picking, so here goes. The establishment survey "covers" 600 times the jobs base of the household survey, but it is not for that reason proportionately more reliable.

To see this, consider a reductio ad absurdum. Imagine that the establishment survey comprised one phone call to a firm of roughly 100,000 employees. And imagine that the household survey involved contacting 10,000 individual persons. We would hardly say that the establishment survey is the more reliable because it covers ten times as many jobs. Indeed we would go with the household survey even though only 1/10 as many jobs are "covered".

I made up these ridiculous numbers to make a point. Which is: that the reliability is a "function" of the number of persons contacted, not the number of jobs covered. On this basis, and with reference to the real world (not my ridiculous example), the establishment survey's advantage is about 7:1, not 600:1.

Moreover, the "function" I mention above is not linear. That is, reliability does not rise linearly with sample size. Indeed, both surveys are big enough that their relative size is not really an issue.

In my view, the case against the household survey involves three elements.

1) Respondents may have trouble answering inherently subjective questions about their employment status. Are consultants with no clients employed or not? If a person is unemployed, why so? Do they "want" a job or not?

2) Even assuming that people answer the employment status questions correctly, the aggregate level of employment cannot be inferred without help from the Census Bureau on underlying population trends. These will be unreliable, particularly on a month to month basis, as the good doctor has pointed out. (Amazingly, Barro does not seem to know this, which means we can save time by not reading any more of his popular stuff. He is a no hoper.)

3) Related, the household survey is very volatile and tends not to hold up so well when the payroll survey is benchmark revised.

Posted by: Gerard MacDonell on January 25, 2004 08:17 AM

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Something about lies, damned lies and statistics comes to mind here, as well as the analogies between statistics and lightposts.
The real point of this post, though, is that it was actually the warden (the great Strother Martin) in Cool Hand Luke who said "what we have here is a failure to communicate," meaning that Luke (Paul Newman) just wasn't seeing things the right (i.e., the warden's) way.
Brad, you get to be Luke, but who's the warden? Dick Cheney?

Posted by: don freeman on January 25, 2004 08:54 AM

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Thoughtful post. But what is the comment about "your father" and "Russian accent"? Looks like it was cutted and pasted from a personal note?

Posted by: Moniker on January 25, 2004 09:57 AM

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On the "failure to communicate" attribution to cool-hand Luke. Wasn't it actually the Strother Martin Character, the boss of the chain gang who uttered that classic line?

Posted by: John Leonarz on January 25, 2004 11:36 AM

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>>On the "failure to communicate" attribution to cool-hand Luke. Wasn't it actually the Strother Martin Character, the boss of the chain gang who uttered that classic line?<<

Ah. I believe you are correct...

Posted by: Brad DeLong on January 25, 2004 12:09 PM

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gerard: reliability of surveys

While I agree with your second part and the judgement why the household survey may have flaws, your reliability-as-function-of-phonecalls is besides the point. We can reasonably assume that the survey method is technically sound -- i.e. respondents are stating what they intend to state, and there is no "failure to communicate". (And nobody is claiming reliability based on the ability of people to communicate numbers.)

What raises questions about the accuracy of especially the house hold survey is this:

(1) People may wrongly classify their situation; "employed" and "unemployed" are pretty fuzzy terms, despite the definition by the BLS. This point has been made repeatedly, including by you, about the so-called "self-employed".

(2) 60,000 households sounds not very much, and absent information how people are selected it is hard to say whether there is selection bias; however surveying by phone will introduce a bias because a larger proportion of the unemployed may not be reachable by phone than employed people (long-term unemployed, homeless, semi-homeless people living at various friends, people having their phone service cut, etc.).

(3) Surveying by phone may put people on the spot, leaving them little time to properly think through their situation; with a paper survey people can see all questions first, and may get more input to their thinking process.

On the other hand, the payroll survey respondents are typically professionals, and their response I would consider quite accurate. Also they typically don't have to come up with an answer on the spot, but have to track the employment status of their workers on an ongoing basis also for other purposes. The problems with the payroll survey are:

(a) People with multiple jobs are covered multiple times.

(b) The economy is dynamic, and companies are created and closed, change names, are merged, etc., possibly introducing underreporting bias in times of major market transition. The BLS claims they adjust for this by using historical measures of firm changes, but the question is how accurate the adjustments are.

The bottom line is, every statistic based on a sampling (selecting respondents) and feature extraction (asking good questions) method that cannot be assured to have a known distribution (i.e., is uniform or has a known and _quantifiable_, thus correctable bias) must be taken with a grain of salt. The best thing you can do is to know what methods were used, i.e. how are respondents selected, and what questions were asked, and apply the "salt" accordingly.

But if the disparity between these two surveys that are essentially measuring the same thing is so large, there is clearly something wrong.

Posted by: cm on January 25, 2004 12:22 PM

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Steve Carr: job quality

First of all, that's good for your friends. However don't put too much into anecdotal evidence. While obviously what you observe is relevant, anybody's friends and acquaintances are typically not a representative sample of the population, but correlated by profession, region, lifestyle, college attendance, family, etc.

I also know a number of anecdotes, and one thing that I have observed is that people are changing their frame of reference -- in times of uncertainty, change, or unemployment many tend to reevaluate their judgement of situations, and may lower, raise, or change their standards depending on how things go. For example, a friend of mine who got laid off and couldn't find a job for the better part of a year had to switch to consulting gigs, and indicated that he prefers it to employment, but also says that his rate is subpar by a significant margin after adjusting for benefits. But what can he do other than become comfortable with his new situation?

Posted by: cm on January 25, 2004 12:37 PM

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richard: why people leave the labor force

While the dropout reasons that you are (speculatively) citing are valid, I'd add that probably more often than you seem to think somebody else has "decided" that they drop out on their behalf, and not they themselves. I would think it is much more likely that people who got laid off decide to rather stay at home with the kids instead of taking on a lower-paid job and funnel all of the money into daycare than deliberately leaving their job.

Regarding your 60% college friends, what about those who never went to college, or even highschool? How many of those people do you know?

Posted by: cm on January 25, 2004 12:47 PM

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Steve Carr: independent contractors

The definition of the term appears to be one other instance of those fuzzy things which on the surface seem clear, but in practice are subject to interpretation.

I'd say that if somebody is operating through their own business, not under their name, they will not be on the payroll, and thus not covered by the survey. If they operate under their name, then it depends how the company classifies them. The bottom line is, labeling people as independent contractors removes certain liabilities and legal obligations from the employer and protections from the worker, but exposes the employer to certain risk, as for example the IRS does not like abuse of the independent contractor status to avoid FICA taxes. There are certain admittedly fuzzy test procedures to determine the distinction. A few important of those are:

* degree of integration into the company's reporting structure and work processes
* degree of integration of the assigned projects with the company's workflow
* duration of "employment", nature of work assigned

The BLS has a bunch of interesting articles on this, and you may want to try the following links; it's an article discussing issues with employment classification, the CES home page, and a BLS search for "independent contractor".

http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/01/art1full.pdf
http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm
http://www.bls.gov/aspsrch/query.idq?TextRestriction=independent+contractor&CiMaxRecordsPerPage=20&CiScope=%2F&TemplateName=query&CiSort=rank%5Bd%5D&HTMLQueryForm=%2Fsearch%2Fsearch%2Easp

Also from http://www.cdc.gov/elcosh/docs/d0100/d000038/glossary.html although it uses different categories than the CES :

Independent contractors - Individuals who identify themselves as independent contractors, independent consultants, or freelance workers (whether self-employed or wage-and-salary workers), when interviewed by the Census Bureau for the BLS Current Population Survey. See "self-employed."

Self-employed worker - Includes incorporated and unincorporated independent contractors, independent consultants, and freelance workers. In Bureau of Labor Statistics publications, however, "self-employed" generally refers to the unincorporated self-employed, while incorporated self-employed workers are considered wage-and-salary workers on their establishments' payrolls (see "alternative work arrangement" and "independent contractor.").

Posted by: cm on January 25, 2004 01:40 PM

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Only slightly off-topic:

I have wondered whether the household survey overstates unemployment. Suppose you are drawing unemployment, but working, in some unreported fashion. Someone from the government calls to ask if you are employed. Your answer?

Or, suppose you're not working, and the questioner asks whether you are looking for work. Even if you are not actually looking, how will you respond?

Posted by: Bernard Yomtov on January 25, 2004 02:00 PM

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Home phones vs. Cell phones. Many of the younger set, especially the tekkies do not have home phones; they have cell phones. This alone leaves them out of phone surveys that do not utilize cell phone numbers. This is a new problem that survey bias is having difficulty correcting.

To the recently unemployed, the home phone becomes a luxury to be cancelled. I suspect that fully half or more of the students living off campus at Berkeley have no home phone.

Posted by: bakho on January 25, 2004 05:18 PM

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Bernard: lying in survey

Of course, people who are working illegally (with or without benefits) will lie on the survey (lest they want to be caught for underreporting income). Unless you believe it is a significant portion of the surveyed population (i.e. presumably excluding "undocumented" workers), it is a quite small distortion.

But on the other hand, the household survey tends to overstate employment; there are people who may consider themselves employed as they have an ongoing business relationship with their employer, for example being on unpaid leave with the expectation of continuing work, but technically they are not on the payroll; also people who label themselves as "self-employed" may not currently have clients/projects/paychecks, in which case they would not be employed at least in spirit, or in the sense of what the survey is supposed to measure.

But then arguably only legal, "official" employment is really employment that should be measured. Typically under-the-table deals come without benefits and any worker protections.

Posted by: cm on January 25, 2004 05:33 PM

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bakho: cell phones

I didn't know that there is a distinction between cell phones and land lines, with regard to directory listings. Well, obviously I don't own one (despite various pressures made on me).

But even so, I'm wondering how many people have cell phone but no land line. I don't know a single person of that description. But then maybe most of them are outside my age group?

Also one thing I don't know is how the surveyors are approaching their interviewees. Are they contacted by mail or by phone? I could imagine that some people would be very suspicious if some dude calls them up and starts asking questions of confidential nature.

Posted by: cm on January 25, 2004 05:40 PM

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People do not necessarily answer surveys accurately, even once you take into account all the potential for different definitions to cause problems. People get units mixed up, transpose digits when copying them, make a guess rather than try to track down a number, answer things based on the last number they remember, which may be several months out of date. I doubt that accurate answering of government surveys is a high-priority of most businesses (or people).

Then the people entering the data onto the system can make mistakes copying the numbers over. I've dealt with survey data indicating some people pay many more times more in taxes than they earned, and when you calculate what tax the person should have paid, it's the same as the survey response except for where the decimal point is.

Posted by: Tracy on January 25, 2004 09:01 PM

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Brad -

You are right that we should adjust the HH survey data for the Jan 2003 population bump. But EPI does not do that, nor does BLS. They just ignore the reality of a growing population and the obvious fact that a growing population means more workers. Good economics suggest the one-time population bump of 941,000 in Jan 2003 should be smoothed over time. The closest thing to it is a recent report from the Joint Economic Cmte. I think it is a real shame you point to EPI's flawed analysis rather than do this number crunching yourself:

http://jec.senate.gov/_files/TwoSurveysUpdated.pdf


Finally, the hack on HH is that it is, in Elise Gould's words, "extremely volatile..."

But that volatility is in the context of (again, Gould's words) "...month-to-month employment trends."

This is not a month-to-month disparity, it is going on 3 years. THAT fact has given most economists serious pause. The conventional wisdom that payroll numbers are better has been replaced by questions over its sample, and its robustness. And Brad, this is a consensus that is not only bipartisan, but nonpartisan and academic. HH has complete coverage of all workers. Payroll is limited to the 20th century definition of employment: in big companies, with benefits, subject to cycles of high turnover (and consequent double counting). We are all quick to scream about rising health care costs, but connect the dots: firms have less incentive to hire a worker on payroll with the rising costs of health care and other benefits.

The payroll survey has been off before, but it gets revised, so the bad numbers are quickly forgotten. But now the gap is unprecedented. Defending it may lead to some serious egg on the face. Remember too, that benchmark revisions to payroll data can come 2, 3, or even 5 years after the initial release.

Not that BLS is making any errors in survey methodology -- they're not. But the thing they are measuring, the labor market, is evolving while the yardstick is frozen in time. So, do you believe in the new economy or not?

Posted by: TJ Kane on January 26, 2004 09:04 AM

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For months now, people have used the BLS as cover. Of course BLS defends their own Payroll survey! But the other leg of support cited by EPI and DeLong is the CBO's Economic Outlook.

Well, today CBO published a new BUDGET AND ECONOMIC OUTLOOK.
http://www.cbo.gov/showdoc.cfm?index=4985&sequence=3

"Although CBO considers the establishment survey's data to be more reliable than the household survey's through early 2003, it is less clear which survey provides a more accurate picture of labor-market conditions in the second half of 2003."

Lastly, a correction to my earlier post: Gould does smooth the Household data. Bravo, and my apologies for assuming otherwise.

But her analysis of the reconciled series is still problematic in that she claims the two reconciled* surveys have a smaller disparity in job growth. By her own count, the growing gap between Payroll job (loss) and Household survey job growth over Nov 2001 - Nov 2003 was 2.7 million. It's awfully hard to believe that 2 years worth of monthly HH variability adds up 20 2.7m instead of cancels out to 0.

Posted by: TJ Kane on January 26, 2004 03:59 PM

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TJ Kane: 20th century job definition

I'm not disagreeing with you, but the corollary to what you are saying is the question what a "reasonable" (plus relevant and informative) definition of employment to be tracked is. And also I suppose that quite a number of people would prefer their 20th century benefits job to their 21st century series of no-benefits, no-FLSA contract gigs (although I know a few examples to the contrary).

Posted by: cm on January 26, 2004 07:34 PM

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Now we're talking, cm! The whole view of aggregate joblessness is bogus, but the issue of quality of jobs is real & fascinating.

The question is (and I don't know the answer): How many "new" jobs are in the backwaters of the service sector like telemarketing, and how many are relatively high-power and felxible consulting arrangements where professional females (now mothers) can stay connected to a career for 20 hours a week?

Posted by: TJ Kane on January 26, 2004 09:44 PM

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TJ Kane: Im not sure the "view of aggregate joblessness is bogus". The notions of "productive capacity" (for lack of a better term) and "capacity underutilization" -- both on the capital and human side -- are valid and real. The purpose of measuring unemployment is not to give people a reason to whine, but to measure one aspect of how productive capacity is wasted, by reducing people who could do some useful work to sitting at home (and we should not forget that they are also subjected to a reduced living standard).

I don't intend to despise certain occupations, or the people working in them, but I'm not sure that I would call, for example, telemarketing activities or facilities cleaning a "career". They are certainly flexible, but perhaps not much in a way that the performing end would wish for.

And the "professional females" who are "now mothers" will continue to be (part-time?) mothers. It is also misleading to regard this a female phenomenon. Telemarketing, cleaning, and other low-skill jobs are performed by both genders, even if by stereotype or fact more by women.

Regarding measures of "aggregate joblessness", while the official unemployment rate (short of 6%) is the BLS U-3 figure, the U-6 figure (unemployed plus marginally attached) is in my mind a better indicator (around 10%), not because it is higher, but because it measures "underutilization" better.

Final remark, having trouble to stop, part of the "new" jobs are people working in self-employed contract positions. A large number of those are for most intents and purposes no-benefits, no-bonus temp workers. There is nothing inherently wrong with it, but the current healthcare system subjects these individuals to disproportionate risk. When adjusting for health insurance comparable to employees (which probably most of those guys are skipping on), their rates are often significantly lower than a salary, and they have to aggressively look for jobs every once in a while. I don't see a lot heroic in that "new economy".

Posted by: cm on January 26, 2004 11:32 PM

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