January 27, 2004

Thinking About After the New Economy

Kieran Healy writes about Doug Henwood's After the New Economy. (It's quite a good book: it's the best single new economy book to read; it's great as a debunking volume, it's not so good as a Roadmap to Utopia.) Healy promises that other contributors to Crooked Timber will also do so, but as is so often the case mere "moral incentives" prove insufficient to elicit sufficient effort. So let me do my part: I'll buy the first Crooked Timber poster to respond to Kieran Healy a book of their choice from amazon.com or powells.com (of up to $30 value) or three books by Andrei Shleifer (The Grabbing Hand, Inefficient Markets, and Without a Map), whichever they prefer.

But as with all books that debunk, it in turn contains bunk and in its own turn needs to be debunked as we pursue the critique of critical criticism to its logical end. Kieran writes about how After the New Economy shows that:

...the rapid increase in measured productivity since the late 1990s... is largely explained by large changes within high-tech sector that are not reflected in other industries. He is also skeptical of the productivity numbers... [t]he appropriateness of the “hedonic pricing” methods used in official statistics is a difficult question that I am not in a position to answer here. But confidence in the numbers is partly a function of one’s belief that markets behave more or less according to neoclassical ideals.... A priori confidence in the rationality of managers and the discipline of market competition will make you more likely to accept the many statistical compromises that have to be made when quantifying the contribution to productivity of a new Dell with Microsoft Office installed.

And yet... And yet... And yet... However the numbers are wrong, they were wrong in very similar ways back before 1995. Whatever the "true" real price of computation, technological progress in computer manufacture even with all the hedonic bells and whistles accounts for only 1/3 at most of the acceleration in measured American productivity growth. And the numbers--imperfect as they are--show an enormous gulf: a jump from an average rate of growth in labor productivity of 1.3% per year or so from 1973-1995 to an average rate of growth of labor productivity of 3.3% per year or so since 1995. This means that we in America today this year are some 18% richer--one-sixth--than we would have been had labor productivity continued on its pre-1995 course and if we still had today's level of employment. Whether that's a big deal or not depends on what your yardstick is. It fits my metric of "unprecedented economic transformation" for such a big change to take place in such a small time. After all, Nick Crafts at the London School of Economics argues that it took the British Industrial Revolution 40 years--from 1790 to 1830--to have the relative impact on British real GDP that the "new economy" has had in nine.

But it may well not fit yours. In all probability, your idea of what an "unprecedented economic transformation" is warped by a telescoped view of history, in which the transformation of Britain from a green and pleasant land to one of coal, cotton, steel, and smoke took place overnight, rather than taking 200 years.

Healy does not talk about Henwood's chapter about finance, which is quite good but which suffers from a failure to be a Roadmap to Utopia. Henwood enumerates all the things wrong with American financial markets. He more-than-hints that institutional reforms (accounting oversight, stronger SEC, attempts to make Wall Street a level playing field) will fail because (a) they are dealing with symptoms, and (b) they will be opposed by politically-powerful interests that will spend money like water to keep their fleecing grounds. Henwood is correct, of course. But there is still the awkward fact that America's financial markets do a better job of channeling capital and controlling corporate managers than any other system yet devised (whether the investment directorate of GOSPLAN, the bottom-up investment "program" of the Great Leap Forward, or the big bank-crony capitalism Germano-Japanese model).

Healy does talk about Henwood's chapter on globalization, which demonstrates that Henwood's intellectual engagement with David Ricardo and Friedrich von Hayek has paid dividends. Healy characterizes it as a "rearguard action against various wings of the anticapitalist movement that Henwood disagrees with." For:

Like all good Marxists, Henwood has a clear-eyed appreciation of the real and potential benefits of capitalist markets, and no wish to revert to what Marx called “the idiocy of rural life,” and all the back-breaking drudgery that it entails. So he has little time for “de-linking” from the economy or bucolic communitarian utopias or self-imposed cultural isolation. The main targets of this chapter are Ralph Nader (“a man who seems proud of his (locally produced) hair shirt”)... Deep Ecologists, ecofeminist Vandana Shiva... activists David Korten and Kirkpatrick Sale. Henwood is particularly irritated by their attitude to culture: "Who needs literacy, really, wonders Sale, when what we’re reading is of little “merit”? Civilization, says Sale, is a “catastrophe,” and he longs for its “collapse.” This is snobbery, elitism and despair masquerading as radical critique."...

In my view, the most useful and interesting parts of Henwood's book are where he (a) debunks the utopian rhetoric of the "new economy" buffs, and (b) asks why it is that the "new economy" buffs felt that this utopian rhetoric was necessary.

I firmly believe that the 2% per year acceleration in American productivity growth since 1995 is real (although I would not dare forecast how long it is going to last: another 5 years? 10? 20? I don't know). I firmly believe that some--most--of it is a true increase in humanity's productive capacities made possible by invention and innovation. But I also firmly believe that some of it is the result of a loss of human freedom: as the clerk in the Las Vegas Airport said to me when he asked me to pass him the money in full view of the camera, "Big Brother is watching, and he's no friend of mine." The panopticonal fantasies of control of Bentham and Taylor can now and in some respects are now being realized. Some of the increased productivity is worker-speedup: old-fashioned increased relative surplus-value.

I believe that on balance the ongoing technological revolutions in computers and communications are very good things. But they don't give everyone (or even many more people) a vastly more interesting job. They don't reverse (they may even accelerate) the rise in income and wealth inequality. Everyone isn't going to grow rich through stock options--only those who are lucky and skillful or very skillful or very lucky plus those who sell the investment banking business of the firms they manage in exchange for underpriced IPO stocks in their personal accounts will grow rich through stock options. A lot of boring jobs serving essentially as managers of inventories and interfaces with computers will vanish. But will the jobs that replace them be any more fulfilling? It's not clear.

And it is the utopian promises at the root of the "new economy" boom that are, I think, the reason why Henwood hates the phrase "new economy" so much. As Healy puts it, the "new economy" boosters like George Gilder are selling a false brand of:

...ersatz anarcho-socialism. The democratization of ownership through shareholding, the proliferation of fulfilling, creative work directed by autonomous workers, the elimination of corporate hierarchies, and above all the transcendence of the material world of production through the power of technology.

The "new economy" boosters are selling a false version of utopia, they are claiming that we will achieve a society of abundance, freedom, and autonomy--a free society of associated producers, one might almost say--through Technocracia ex Machina. This message sells. People crave it. People crave it because there is clearly so much wrong with our economy and society. And Henwood hates it so much because it is a false road to Utopia. As German Charlie once said about a bunch of somewhat similar ideological messages, they are:

...the self-consciousness and self-esteem of man who has... not yet won through to himself... the general theory of this world, its encyclopaedic compendium, its logic in popular form, its spiritual point d'honneur, it enthusiasm, its moral sanction, its solemn complement, and its universal basis of consolation and justification... the fantastic realization of human freedom since human freedom has not acquired any true reality. The struggle against [such ideologies] is, therefore, indirectly the struggle against that world [that produces such ideologies. They are,] at one and the same time, the expression of real suffering and a protest against real suffering.... the sigh of the oppressed creature, the heart of a heartless world, the soul of soulless conditions. It is the opium of the people.

Posted by DeLong at January 27, 2004 05:43 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

Pedantic remark: "panopticonal fantasies"...seems to me "panoptic fantasies" has the same meaning and is more elegant.

As to Henwood's book, it's on my "read it one of these days" list.

(feel free to zap this as an off-topic remark)

Posted by: Randolph Fritz on January 27, 2004 05:54 PM

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>> I'll buy the first Crooked Timber poster to respond to Kieran Healy a book of their choice from amazon.com or powells.com (of up to $30 value) or three books by Andrei Shleifer (The Grabbing Hand, Inefficient Markets, and Without a Map), whichever they prefer. <<

Man, I should have let Davies lead off. I've been meaning to read Schleifer's stuff for ages. So much for first-mover advantage. ;-)

Posted by: Kieran Healy on January 27, 2004 05:55 PM

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Is this team work or merely another demonstration of that perplexing productivity associated with IT?

Posted by: calmo on January 27, 2004 06:29 PM

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Aye, Brad sets up a prime case for Dukenfield's law. Were I a Crooked Timberite, I would bang out a quick, "Read Kieran Healy's post" and claim my Shleifer. Assuming that I thought the ill-will such a stunt would provoke didn't outweigh it....

Posted by: Matt Weiner on January 27, 2004 06:37 PM

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(Um, Google "Dukenfield's law" to tell what I mean, or go to http://www.markarkleiman.com/archives/_/2003/09/no_child_left_behind_meets_dukenfields_law.php)

Posted by: Matt Weiner on January 27, 2004 06:39 PM

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So the ‘craving’ for a new economy that promises ‘abundance, freedom, and autonomy’ is the equivalent of Marx’s religious ‘opium’ from which man must emancipate himself. Very interesting. Our new God is digital. Why can he not exceed the speed of light?

Francis Fukuyama is well ahead of the curve. His latest book, “Our Post Human Future “ speaks to the philosophical issues of digital technologies intersecting with bioengineering technologies and how we should think about preparing for a future in which the definition of ‘human’ is much obscured by the definition of ‘alive’, both of which are still hovering around the definition of ‘sentient’ or ‘self-aware.’ I do not believe viewing the ’new economy’ in isolation from the technological developments that will pressure the very definition of human life is a very useful paradigm.

Please don’t do anything further to encourage Steve Jobs that he is God.

Posted by: KLA on January 27, 2004 09:22 PM

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What? "The democratization of ownership through shareholding, (Pure bunk. If your shares aren't paying a dividend, or hold a P/E below about 17,
then "ownership" is pure frothy, sea spume,) the proliferation of fulfilling, creative work directed by autonomous workers, (What kind of crack is this guy smoking? Computers only made the endless clerical drudgery into even more endlessly over-parsed, filtered and re-sampled drudgery, ruled over by ciger chewing, actuals-toting, out-sourcing cut-to-the-bone "managers") the elimination of corporate hierarchies,("Oh, Say Can You See", yeah, he must be an pot head. Corporate heirarchies are just as tiered, butt sniffing and shark biting as they ever were, only more so. Serious options and benefits made for serious assholes living up in the ceiling, and a lot higher percentage of them v labor than in the past. What do they DO up there all day?) and above all the transcendence of the material world of production through the power of technology." (Amen. Whatever that means....)

If this is being taught at the college level, then it's "pedagogy" bordering on "pedophilia". This bears absolutely no resemblence to reality.

Posted by: Payne Dividends on January 27, 2004 10:05 PM

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I'm still in lurker status but I couldn't resist this:

That' OK KLA, we'll keep telling him;" Remember, Steve, you're not really God!", as I understand ancient Roman pagan priests were whispering to Caesar.

Posted by: bulent on January 27, 2004 10:13 PM

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Good pick-up on Sir Carlos de la Trier, but, aside from the Promethean fantasy of stealing fire from heaven, which has long since become thermo-nuclear reality, didn't he also focus upon distributional issues, (which he euphemistically called "class struggle").

Posted by: john c. halasz on January 27, 2004 10:29 PM

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Brad wrote:

"It's quite a good book: it's the best single new economy book to read"

Aren't you doing a disservice to your Cal colleagues Varian & Shapiro here? Surely "Information Rules" would rank above Henwood's oeuvre.

Posted by: Tom on January 27, 2004 10:53 PM

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Man, I should have let Davies lead off. I've been meaning to read Schleifer's stuff for ages. So much for first-mover advantage. ;-)

To add insult to injury, I've already got those books.

Posted by: dsquared on January 27, 2004 11:22 PM

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Well, the new technology age allows me to read this blog and see all the reactions to it. Sometimes the blogs and blog responses can actually tackle a problem, and resolve it in a few days; when the same task would have taken weeks in prior time.

And, a blog lets me see what the intellectuals are reading so I can fake it without paying $40 for a book.

Posted by: Matt Young on January 28, 2004 02:50 AM

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would 18thC britain gone faster or slower without the Napoleonic wars ?

Posted by: big al on January 28, 2004 04:04 AM

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"plus those who sell the investment banking business of the firms they manage in exchange for underpriced IPO stocks in their personal accounts will grow rich through stock options."

Combined with the phrase "Big Brother is watching, and he's no friend of mine.", this points out something interesting:

That clerk in Las Vegas is in a reduced position to take advantage of corruption, because of better monitoring. High-level executives are not necessarily in a reduced position, for two reasons - first, the added complexity of operations enabled by computers adds opportunity for corruption, and second, they've lobbied for laws enabling corruption (for an example, see a previous post in this blog mentioning Wendy 'Enron' Gramm).

The real determinant of how much wealth one can slice off for themselves is probably the social structure of one's position, not the market. Skill and luck are useful, but probably mainly to get a juicy position. This Las Vegas clerk, even if he's the best clerk working for the company, won't get paid much.

Posted by: Barry on January 28, 2004 04:22 AM

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Ha Ha! Productivity Paradox #2! The worst thing about the New Economy was its NAME setting up a stupid stultifying polarity with, well, everything else. Far better to forget that term and "concept" and move on. Try seeing the late 90s events as a partly failed but very illuminating attempt to move to a high invention economy - NOT the same thing as hi-tech, or ANY tech, for that matter. If we can hit the high-invention sweet-spot and STAY THERE before we actually level down to India, the jobs will be there at all levels.

Posted by: Fast Pete on January 28, 2004 07:10 AM

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RE: “If we can hit the high-invention sweet-spot and STAY THERE before we actually level down to India, the jobs will be there at all levels.”

Which is exactly what makes the government-business partnership in the just passed Nanotechnology Research and Development Act (S. 189) so interesting - and worth watching if you want to make a difference. The issue is building the institutions and defining the relationships that best facilitate ‘technology transfer’ - coupled with implementation (remember the Beta VCR?) Confusion in allocating responsibility for policy, research, compliance, enforcement, funding, and implementation have left the EPA in a hopeless state of near dysfunction. It’s not so much that the economy is ‘new’ (remember the ‘new’ business models bursting with vision, but short on profit?) as it is that the traditional economic forces are now operating in a different environment - one that is faster and more competitive - and this is stressing the old institutions of government and business, not to mention the assault on underlying philosophies of governance and the lost sense of security, both physical and economic. Throw bio-engineered life forms into this mix, and, well, it is no wonder that Fukuyama draws upon his insightful knowledge of the ‘red cheeked’ Nietzsche (“Man does not seek happiness. Only the Englishman does that” in scornful reference to Hume and Locke who influenced the early institutional development in this country) to inform his call for prudence in the sexy new world.

Posted by: KLA on January 28, 2004 08:07 AM

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Umm, Brad...

"In all probability, your idea of what an "unprecedented economic transformation" is warped by a telescoped view of history, in which the transformation of Britain from a green and pleasant land to one of coal, cotton, steel, and smoke took place overnight, rather than taking 200 years."

I think I'm the "you" to whom you refer, along with all the other "yous" (youse?). Just guessing from context. I think i'm offended.

Posted by: K Harris on January 28, 2004 08:12 AM

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Brad, your remarks about productivity remind me of this quote from Alasdair Gray's novel 1982 Janine (p. 215):

"Modern technology cannot solve problems because in all societies technology is used to accumulate wealth, not to spread it."

That is what worries me about the productivity boom. If new technologies result in increased productivity by allowing top management to fire more workers and work the remaining ones harder, they will not increase the overall good. The richest will become very much richer, there will be more poor, and the middle will be squeezed harder--both at work, and in the market, where they will find themselves crowded out by the richest. (On my naive understanding of economics.)

(I should point out that the Alasdair Gray character I quote, at the end of the paragraph, is told by God to "Keep off politics.")

Posted by: Matt Weiner on January 28, 2004 08:17 AM

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As should surprise no one, Kevin Drum makes the same point, better:
http://www.calpundit.com/archives/003141.html

Posted by: Matt Weiner on January 28, 2004 08:20 AM

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"a free society of associated producers, one might almost say..."

All busily beavering away, alone in their darkened home offices. This is utopia? This strikes me as the culmination of the end of community as described by Disreali's 'younger stranger' in your post above.

Posted by: flory on January 28, 2004 09:45 AM

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>>I think I'm the "you" to whom you refer<<

Nope. I was thinking of Kieran Healy. That's a singular "you"...

Posted by: Brad DeLong on January 28, 2004 10:20 AM

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"You're so vain, you probably think this post is about you."

Posted by: joe on January 28, 2004 10:34 AM

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" But there is still the awkward fact that America's financial markets do a better job of channeling capital and controlling corporate managers than any other system yet devised (whether the investment directorate of GOSPLAN, the bottom-up investment "program" of the Great Leap Forward, or the big bank-crony capitalism Germano-Japanese model). "

Great quote, Brad. You might have noted that the manager performance creed ROI is also the single most objective measure of material wealth creation.

The super rich are pulling ever ahead of the mere "rich" (US middle class, house-car owning, vacationing normal folk; top 20% in the world). China lost manufacturing jobs, too -- robots are making more; to the profit of the owners of capital.

Too bad Dems have been lying about Soc. Security so retiring boomers don't really own their own pension funds.

Posted by: Tom Grey on January 28, 2004 01:47 PM

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>"All busily beavering away, alone in their darkened home offices. This is utopia? This strikes me as the culmination of the end of community "<

Perhaps not in dark home offices - in WiFi-offering libraries and cafés.

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