January 28, 2004

More Thuds and Screams from the Topkapi Palace

The plot is well-known. A small group of men sneak through the Sultan's Topkapi Palace in the middle of the night. A thud, and a splash. The following morning it is announced that the evil vizier of the Sultan has disappeared, and that the callow and bewildered Sultan is now receiving advice from a different group of high officials, and that henceforth everything will be fine.

Outside the palace, the merchants and craftsmen of Istanbul wonder what really happened.

Fantasy, of course. But meanwhile, back in today's world, Counterspin Central hears footsteps, thuds, and splashes from inside the darkened White House. He interprets these as signs that the grownup Republicans' in the national security wing are finally making their move to capture the Bush administration, and turn it from a public embarrassment and a policy disaster into something better:

Counterspin Central: The "Dump Cheney" movement within the Republican party is really picking up steam...

While Democratic rivals battle for the presidential nomination in a succession of grueling primary elections, Vice President Dick Cheney appears to be fighting to secure his spot on the Republican ticket behind President George W Bush. The vice president... is seen more and more by Republican Party politicos as a drag on the president's re-election chances... instead of the moderate voice of wisdom and caution that voters thought they were getting in the vice president, ongoing disclosures about his role in the drive to war in Iraq and other controversial administration plans depict him as an extremist... who exercises undue influence over Bush to further a radical agenda, a notion that was backed by the publication of a recent book about former treasury secretary Paul O'Neill, who described Cheney as creating a "kind of praetorian guard around the president" that blocked out contrary views.... Halliburton... billions of dollars in contracts for Iraq's postwar reconstruction... a major political liability....

Reports were already surfacing two months ago that a discreet "dump Cheney" movement had been launched by intimate associates of Bush's father... Brent Scowcroft and former secretary of state James Baker.... Scowcroft and Baker... have privately expressed great concern over Cheney's unparalleled influence over the younger Bush and the damage that has done to US relations with longtime allies...

The grownup Republicans' move is long, long overdue. But where are the grownup Republicans in the economic policy wing?

And if this strike by Scowcroft, Baker, and company is to do any good, they need to ponder the advice that Alessandro Farnese, Prince of Parma, gave to Henri, Duc de Guise: "As we say in Italy, he who draws his sword against his prince needs to throw away his scabbard."

Posted by DeLong at January 28, 2004 10:03 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

Are they looking for someone to pin THIS onto? But surely, that would be ignominy:

"There were lots of warnings." -- Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld (Parade Magazine interview, Defense Department Website, Oct 12, 2001)

"They don't have any excuse because the information was in their lap, and they didn't do anything to prevent it." -- Senator Richard Shelby, member of the joint intelligence committee investigating 9/11 ("Another Dot That Didn't Get Connected," San Francisco Chronicle , June 3, 2002).

"I don't believe any longer that it's a matter of connecting the dots. I think they had a veritable blueprint, and we want to know why they didn't act on it." -- Senator Arlen Specter, emerging from the same Senate intelligence hearings ("FBI, CIA Brass in a Sling," New York Daily News , June 6, 2002).

"[T]he least understandable argument of all is the line first used by Rice in May of 2002, that no one could have foreseen that terrorists would hijack airplanes and crash-fly them into buildings. It is especially odd coming from the coordination person in the White House. . . It is also odd coming from the official who had an administration plan for actions against Al Qaeda on her desk on the day of the attacks." -- Thomas Oliphant ("Prejudging the 9/11 report," the Boston Globe , Dec. 21, 2002)

"US authorities did little or nothing to pre-empt the events of 9/11. It is known that at least 11 countries provided advance warning to the US of the 9/11 attacks. . . . It had been known as early as 1996 that there were plans to hit Washington targets with airplanes. Then in 1999 a US national intelligence council report noted that "al-Qaida suicide bombers could crash-land an aircraft packed with high explosives into the Pentagon, the headquarters of the CIA, or the White House." -- former British environment minister Michael Meacher, ("This War on Terrorism is Bogus," The Guardian , Sept. 6, 2003)

"As each day goes by we learn that this government knew a whole lot more about these terrorists before September 11th than it has ever admitted." -- Former Senator and 9/11 commissioner Max Cleland ("9/11 Commission Could Subpoena Oval Office Files," The New York Times , Oct. 26, 2003)

"As you read the report, you're going to have a pretty clear idea what wasn't done and what should have been done. This was not something that had to happen." -- 9/11 head Thomas Kean, ("9/11 Chair: Attack Was Preventable," CBS News, Dec. 18, 2003)

Posted by: Lee A. on January 28, 2004 10:12 AM

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Rubbish. There is no dump Dick Cheney movement. There are no grown-up Republican leaders, and Republican policy would be as bad whoever was Vice President.

Posted by: lise on January 28, 2004 10:15 AM

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Or, as Machiavelli said, "men should be either treated kindly or utterly destroyed, because they can avenge the lesser wrongs, but not the greater."

Absolutely the best political insight
I've ever read.

Posted by: Andrew Edwards on January 28, 2004 10:20 AM

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Lise is correct. This is damning of Bush on down. Bush is a puppet or a little boy whose head can be patted and then stuck in the corner. This fraud agasint the United States and its citizens must be exposed and defeated in the coming election.

Posted by: cal on January 28, 2004 10:24 AM

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Hello:
I thought the reason they picked Cheney was to act as security blanket because George junior was so insecure in just about everything. He was picked as the brains behind it all, so as to reassure the public that voted for George Junior would feel like there was some brains around, and a back-up (not a Quale),
albeit worrisome to some voters due to his heart malfunctions.
Now we find he has no heart at all.

Also, if you remember when George junior took office, it was business as usual, there was no sudden plans to get Osama - and in fact the Prez was on vacation the entire month of August preceeding 9-11 at his ranch in so-called: "working rest".
Man, it's good to be the king. A month-long vacation, 88% of most American's have trouble just taking 1 week off, yet alone 2- sort of being asleep at the switch, for real.
The press reported in his 1st inagural year in office, George Jr. was either "on" vacation; or "on his way" to vacation for about half of his 1st year term of office before 9-11. I wonder if that is really true, if so, he should be sued in class action court for "fraud" - or "incompetence" and just sue him for his Prez salary because he did not earn, he earned all the donations, though. Make a symbolic law suit is any one's right, Right?

Thanks

Posted by: Dave S. on January 28, 2004 10:52 AM

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They will NOT dump Cheney, becasue that would amount to an admission that something has gone wrong, and they'll never admit that.

Name one person this administration has fired for making a substantive mistake! The only ones that have been forced out in this adminsitration have been those who were insufficiently loyal, and/or too right.

Posted by: rea on January 28, 2004 11:16 AM

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Bush can't admit a mistake, but there are some EKG's out there that could smooth dumping Cheney over fine. Poor guy needs bedrest, a dry hot state, and an enormously expensive house to recover.

Is Baker a grown up because he's worried that his Middle East money-making deals might go sour? Or is it because of the grown-up way he rigged the vote count in Florida? I need to know so I can teach my boy.

Posted by: david on January 28, 2004 11:50 AM

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A Dump Cheney movement was inevitable. But that doesn't mean it will carry the day.

If Baker and Scowcroft were leading it, we wouldn't have heard about it. They would work so quietly and with such a small group that it would never see the light of day. And their first and probably last step would have been to approach the senior Bush, not to gather supporters.

Posted by: Jim Harris on January 28, 2004 11:55 AM

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I agree with Rea. I am not sure the grownups have a foot in the door. The only way Cheney goes is if Karen Hughes is convinced that he won't help the ticket.

Posted by: bakho on January 28, 2004 11:59 AM

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I think the Dump Cheney movement might run into some trouble when Bush consults his most trusted advisor on that question.

Posted by: alkali on January 28, 2004 12:01 PM

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Baker? Scowcroft? Nah... Now, on the other hand, if Barbara Bush wanted Chaney out, he'd be gone... poof.

Posted by: Matt on January 28, 2004 12:05 PM

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Perhaps GWB could ask Dick Cheney to do an exhaustive search for Vice Presidential candidates.

Posted by: theCoach on January 28, 2004 12:27 PM

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I indeed notices in some right-wing blogs: "dump Cheney (we are tired of Halliburton, even if they did not overcharge)". One offered Bush/Rice'04. Astroturf movement? My first thought was - Bush is too chicken; the second - Cheney could leave "because of health problems", but I doubt they will try to officially blame him for anything. If this happen, it will be positive thing anyway (but no Rice, please).

Posted by: GB on January 28, 2004 12:36 PM

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I wonder if the heart problems will kick in soon.


I think Atrios has a Giuliani as VP rumor going around.

So if Bush dumps Cheney how does he explain giving Cheney so much power and following Cheney's lead so often?

Posted by: KevinNYC on January 28, 2004 12:47 PM

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"So if Bush dumps Cheney how does he explain giving Cheney so much power and following Cheney's lead so often?"

Because Bush Republicans are crypto-monarchists, and the King's Majesty, while it can be mislead by corrupt, venal, or incompetent ministers, cannot itself do wrong. The King-as-person can even be defective as a person, and this is still true.

Forward into the seventeenth century!

Posted by: Davis X. Machina on January 28, 2004 01:12 PM

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Cheney will have to go so GWB can groom his successor to run in 2008.

Posted by: claude tessier on January 28, 2004 01:22 PM

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Well, I think it would be lovely to imagine Cheney getting locked out and skulking back to Wyoming to "spend some time with his family" -- but the article Hesiod links to is pretty lousy. Only one quote: from a "prominent Republican activist." That could be just about anyone. The rest of the article is unsourced speculation and rehashing of cosmetic politicing coming of the OVP. Methinks it's not so much a "dump Cheney" movement as a couple disenfranchised GOP leakers trying to start a "dump Cheney" movement.

Posted by: harry on January 28, 2004 01:30 PM

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The other argument is that George W. Bush believes that Cheney has to stay: any alternative vice president would interfere with the coronation of Jeb Bush in 2008.

Posted by: Brad DeLong on January 28, 2004 01:32 PM

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Ah...isn't this like saying Charlie McCarthy's going to dump Bergen?

Posted by: Dunkirk on January 28, 2004 01:38 PM

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Look, there's some there here and that's because this rumor is seeing the light of day. It doesn't necessarily mean that Cheney is on the outs or that this is even seriously being considered. But it does mean that a good number of "the base" are questioning just what the hell is going on in this administration.

Hence the "I smell panic" comment by Hesiod.

Posted by: PigInZen on January 28, 2004 01:43 PM

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"The other argument is that George W. Bush believes that Cheney has to stay: any alternative vice president would interfere with the coronation of Jeb Bush in 2008."

Here's a two-birds-with-one-stone solution for the Repubs: Dump Cheney, replace him with Jeb. Bush squared in '04!

Posted by: joe on January 28, 2004 01:51 PM

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Cheney's constituents--who do not include James Scowcroft or James Baker--have no fault to find with his performance down to date; no fault whatsoever.

Look for him to move (probably in late 2005, on grounds of health and age) sidewise into a newly-created advisory position, with no change in his degree of access or influence. His replacement will be some empty suit from among the Republican Senatorial contingent: perhaps someone like Jon Kyl.

Posted by: Frank Wilhoit on January 28, 2004 02:17 PM

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Frank:

"Cheney's constituents--who do not include James Scowcroft or James Baker--have no fault to find with his performance down to date; no fault whatsoever."

Very, very important. Except possibly Iraq; getting that secured and firmly in BushCo hands could have been sooooo profitable.

Posted by: Barry on January 28, 2004 02:42 PM

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Appealing to the adults won't do. Adult opinions have not mattered till now. Appealing to political advisors is more in character. The first poll showing Kerry more popular than Bush has been aired. One poll ain't reality, but the turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire must have caused some sphincter puckering at the White House. Bush has been playing to the base all along, never taking the high road if the low might lock in a swing state. If Cheney is a liability, he will go. If he goes, and he can be made to eat all the sins of the village before departing, all the better. If Cheney is not a liability, the only other reason to turn him out to pasture is if another potential VP is a serious asset, one who could turn a sizable swing state to a sure thing, or make the entire industrial midwest easier to win.

The Jeb problem is a real one, I think, but Jeb has not been cutting much of a figure on the national scene. Trouble with disappearing juvenile social services clients and stuff like that. He also needs to jog more to really take best advantage of the Bush profile (lean, purposeful, not to thoughtful).

If Jeb clearly doesn't have what it takes, then the Bush clan has an obligation to get the right kind of Republican in place, so that 2008 goes to the patrician right. It's probably too soon to raise that issue with the people that matter, what with an election to get through and all.

Posted by: K Harris on January 28, 2004 03:21 PM

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Other than health reasons, how can they ease Cheney out the door? The White House reports today that Dick Cheney will not be on the ticket this year. Sources report that Cheney has fallen into disfavor because of this policy calls, etc. Doesn't that simply indict Bush, too? Why did he listen to him? Why did he not seek counsel from anyone else? Doesn't that expose Bush to ridicule? These are all rhetorical questions to me, but how would they spin it (Cheney's ouster) other than for health reasons? I do not like the Giuliani angle. But he's a womanizer.

Posted by: Cal on January 28, 2004 03:56 PM

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If they get rid of Cheney, Bush will have no brains, well, except for Rove.

Posted by: Pol on January 28, 2004 08:14 PM

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If they get rid of Cheney, Bush will have no brains, well, except for Rove.

Posted by: pol on January 28, 2004 08:14 PM

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If they get rid of Cheney, Bush will have no brains, well, except for Rove.

Posted by: pol on January 28, 2004 08:15 PM

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If they get rid of Cheney, Bush will have no brains, well, except for Rove.

Posted by: pol on January 28, 2004 08:15 PM

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If they get rid of Cheney, Bush will have no brains, well, except for Rove.

Posted by: pol on January 28, 2004 08:15 PM

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If they get rid of Cheney, Bush will have no brains, well, except for Rove.

Posted by: pol on January 28, 2004 08:16 PM

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Sorry to spoil your imagery, but the grand vizier is unlikely to be in Topkapi Palace in the middle of the night. Topkapi was the sultan's residence, and although many government departments were within the palace, the vizier's offices and residence were in a separate building, commonly known in Western literature as the "Sublime Porte".

See, eg, Bernard Lewis, _Istanbul and the Civilization of the Ottoman Empire_, pp.94-95.

mdl

Posted by: Mark D Lew on January 29, 2004 12:30 AM

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An interesting question consists in asking what would be alternative tickets to Dick Cheney:

"A well-placed source says that the president will “most likely” drop Dick Cheney from his re-election ticket and his first choice for a replacement is former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/Default.aspx?id=4065772&p1=0

Will Rove be able to resist the idea of exploiting 9-11 to the last bitter bit?

Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on January 29, 2004 12:56 PM

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jPS I was hoping your link would be better than this. This is gossip followed by even worse.
I did see approval numbers showing Cheney only with half of Bush's though ( sorry no link ) and am still seeing references to Suskind's book.
So there is hope.
Do we really care about the VP office? Whether Rudi will get the nod?
Only to the extent that there will be quite a vacuum in the WH without Cheney.
But at this point it's like betting on the World Series --early and frivolous.

Posted by: calmo on January 29, 2004 08:53 PM

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Morality by consensus is frequently morality by convenience.

Posted by: Pulcifer Jeremy on March 17, 2004 08:42 PM

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'May you live all the days of your life.' - Swift

Posted by: LaPierre George on May 2, 2004 02:08 PM

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We are healthy only to the extent that our ideas are humane.

Posted by: Jessica Saunders on May 3, 2004 01:28 AM

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It is never a mistake to say good-bye.

Posted by: Aptekar Alex on May 20, 2004 06:39 AM

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A good friend can tell you what is the matter with you in a minute. He may not seem such a good friend after telling.

Posted by: Geyer Laura Talley on June 2, 2004 11:58 PM

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There is no benefit in the gifts of a bad man.

Posted by: Wearing Shannon on June 30, 2004 06:24 AM

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