Matthew Yglesias watches the clown show that is the Bush administration budget. I don't think he finds it very funny:
Posted by DeLong at February 3, 2004 07:17 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postTAPPED: February 2004 Archives: THE FIVE YEAR ITCH. The Washington Post has a strong editorial on Bush's budget which, as Mark Schmitt points out looks more like a campaign brochure than a serious document. There's a lot of flim-flam in the thing, but the most egregious gimmick is that they've simply neglect to include the second five years of the traditional ten-year budget.
The "logic" of doing it this way is that the vast bulk of the costs of the president's signature proposal -- making the tax cuts permanent -- occur in years six through ten. Thus we have a budget that will cut the deficit in half in five years (though it won't really do that, since it neglects to include costs for Iraq, Afghanistan, and various other things you can read about here courtesy of the House Budget Committee Democratic staff) only to see it explode in the following years, after the president is out of office. Since the main problem with deficits is the effect of the long-term budget outlook on the economy, it's hard to see how this is defensible.
Flip over to Elisabeth Bumiller's news analysis in The New York Times, meanwhile, and you'll see that no one from the White House even tries to defend this on policy grounds, instead everyone talks about the political logic behind the budget -- if Democrats want to save domestic spending from cuts they'll either need to oppose increases in defense and homeland security spending or else raise taxes. Karl Rove figures they'll pick the latter, and that's a political fight he thinks he can win.
--Matthew Yglesias
Polls have consistently shown that most Americans are not enamored of the Bush tax cuts. Most would rather see the money going to save Social Security. It really depends on how reversing the tax cuts are sold.
Posted by: bakho on February 3, 2004 06:26 PMI think that Bakho has it right, above.
A few years ago, during the Reagan disaster, I was moderator of sci.econ.research. Somebody challenged me to write a balanced and saleable budget -- and I found it surprisingly easy to do. Naturally I worked the room: "There's an easy couple of billion in mothballing all ships named after people who voted against the Civil Rights Act of 1964..." But the basic essentials, equitable taxation and keeping the AARP at bay, pretty much do the job for you.
In 2005 it will still be easy to write a workable and sane budget if only it is based around a Goods and Services Tax (a value-added tax in many people's parlance).
Whether this can get through the House will depend upon the wisdom of whoever is the Speaker naming the Committee Chairmen, but as long as it's not Dennis Hastert this has a good chance of going reasonably well.
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