From the top of the tall steel, chrome, and glass tower perched at the summit of Mount Olympus that is Gawker Media World Headquarters, eagle-eyed and muu-muu-clad Wonkette notices the ripples in cyberspace left by yours truly, and comments. She also prints letters! (If you are funny, that is.)
This is the edited, G-rated version:
Washington Post's Advice to Blogger: Matt Stoller over at The Blogging of the President tries to make sense of why Washington Post reporter Jon Weisman told Brad DeLong to go f*** himself:
To: Michael Ham
Cc: delong@econ.Berkeley.EDU
From: Jonathan Weisman
Date: Tue, 3 Feb 2004 09:57:46 -0500
Status:F*** Brad DeLong.
Jonathan Weisman
Washington Post economics writer
weismanj@washpost.com
(202)334-7745We've deleted the substance of the email, which was boring.
(Some crap about about the Bush budget and DeLong's blog post about Weisman's superficial treatment of its significant flaws, as well as Weisman's admission that his piece was, indeed, "slapped together.")
Stoller goes into some detail about DeLong's credentials (presidential economic adviser, professor. . . ) and how Weisman should have treated DeLong's criticisms as constructive advice ("Bush's budget numbers have a pattern of not adding up; this is relevant, necessary, and obvious context . . .").
Sorry, must have dropped off for a second there. More interesting, slightly, is the psychobabble about how insecure mainstream journalists are: Such "bitterness" is common "among many journalists who are scared of a world where their readers can talk back to them." (Yeah, what they really want to be is bloggers!)
Whatevs. Stoller is missing the point: Weisman said a dirty word. Can we get the FCC to convene an investigation on this?
The Washington Post Says 'F*** DeLong' [The Blogging of the President]
Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps? Part DLX [Brad Delong]
Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps?: Agreement From an Unexpected Quarter [Brad DeLong]UPDATE: Brad writes with further thoughts:
Am I allowed to say that I think it is really interesting that there is at least one Washington Post reporter who thinks that reporters are doing their job when, under deadline, they do nothing more than rewrite White House press releases?
Wall Street Journal news reporters don't think that way.
(It is true, however, that Wall Street Journal editorial writers think their job is to dictate White House press releases.)
I was thinking about Hitt and McKinnon's quite good Wall Street Journal reaction article to the budget, and contrasting it with the lousy and obsequious job done by Weisman et al. at the Post. In fact, I thought about this so much that I sent a note to the Washington Post ombudsman. Here is a lightly edited version of what I sent:
Posted by DeLong at February 4, 2004 11:24 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postFrom my perspective (and that of nearly every other person who follows the budget and the deficit) an article about the Bush budget that wants to inform its readers and present a balanced picture has to make seven points up front and high:
- The Bush administration plans a large deficit--$520 billion--in the next fiscal year.
- The Bush administration claims that its policies will halve the deficit by 2009.
- The Bush budget number for 2009 omits about $160 billion in costs that the administration is on record as favoring.
- The Bush budget limits itself to five years--to 2009--rather than the ten year forecasts of Clinton budgets for a reason. That reason is that the ten-year numbers look really bad, and the administration thinks that if it doesn't report them the press won't talk about them.
- Extending the Bush tax cuts would blow an annual $250 billion hole in the budget in the 2009-2012 presidential term.
- $400 billion in 2009 and $700 billion by 2014 are better forecasts of the deficit that would be produced by the policies the Bush administration advocates.
- As the Bush administration's Analytical Perspectives volume says, "Long-run budget projections show clearly that the [federal] budget is on an unsustainable path."
Those are the seven things about the budget that are news. But the initial story mentions only 1, 2, and 5, and point 5 is buried in paragraph 26. The Post's story looks even worse when it is contrasted with the excellent story that Greg Hitt and John D. McKinnon wrote about the budget for the _Wall Street Journal_. Hitt and McKinnon hit most of the points important for a reader to know, and hit them up front and high.
Hitt and McKinnon clearly felt themselves under immense pressure to produce a budget story that would inform readers about what Bush administration policies were and what their likely effects would be. By contrast, Jonathan Weisman and company clearly felt under enormous pressure to produce something quickly, yet under little pressure to produce something good and substantive. So they wrote a story that--because of its source material--turned into a celebration of the Heroic President and His Loyal Advisors Who Make Tough and Politically-Risky Decisions to Control the Budget Deficit. It thus painted a very misleading picture of what is actually going on. (And makes particularly bizarre reading alongside the _Post's_ Tuesday budget editorial.)...
What is going on here, as I compare the _Post_ to the _Journal's_ news pages? Why is it considered OK at the _Post_ to rewrite press releases to get out a quick--even if largely misleading, and largely substance-free--story, when it's clearly not considered OK to do so at the _Journal_? What accounts for this difference in culture?
[Redacted] culture and reporter-editor trust is very important. (Indeed, what Jill Dutt did to Jonathan Weisman on the poynter.org website last year should not have been done to a dog [Redacted].) But there's more. The _Journal_--all the way up to managing editor Paul Steiger--is filled with people who have covered budget and similar issues in the past, who understand the games that White Houses play, and think it important that their reporters not be caught by them. The depth of institutional experience is certainly important--[Redacted] it's much easier to "see through White House smoke if you have the experience and smarts to look through the smoke to the substance that lurks in Analytic Perspectives." But also, I think, the _Journal_ reporters lose status within the newspaper if they serve as mouthpieces for misleading White House spin. I fear that that is not true at the _Post_: that many _Post_ reporters fear that they could not function if they were treated by the administration as, say, Dana Milbank is treated, and so trim their sails.
This is a bad thing. As Slate's Eric Umansky writes, if you read the _Journal_ you learn--straight out and right up high--that "most analysts—independent, Democratic, and Republican—view the proposed budget as a significant undercount of what the government will actually spend." If you read the _Post_, you don't. There are a lot of people out there right now who read the _Post_ and who now think that the story of the Bush budget is the story of the heroic president... tough decisions... control the deficit...
The _Post_ has done them--and the rest of us--no good service.
http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_snapshots
In the 25 months since the recession ended, total wage and salary income is up only 0.4%. It should be emphasized that this is growth after the recession ended and does not include income losses incurred while the economy was contracting. This is the slowest wage and salary growth of any recession since 1959, the first year in which monthly data on total wage and salary income is consistently available.
Wage and salary income after the previous five recessions was an average of 9.4% higher by this point in the recovery. Prior to this recovery, the worst post-recession spell for wage and salary growth was the last jobless recovery of the early 1990s, which still saw wage and salary income rising nine times faster (3.6%) than in the past 25 months.
Posted by: anne on February 4, 2004 11:46 AMhttp://www.cbpp.org/2-2-04bud.htm
Analysis Of The President's New Budget - 2/2/04
The budget would make the nation's fiscal problems worse, as deficit-reducing proposals are heavily outweighed by deficit-increasing proposals; further, the deficit-reducing proposals are disproportionately tilted against lower- and middle-income families, while affluent and powerful constituents are essentially given a free ride.
http://www.cbpp.org/2-3-04sfp.htm
Decline in Federal Grants Will Put Additional Squeeze on State and Local Budgets - 2/3/04
The FY 2005 Bush budget leaves states and localities $6 billion short of funding for programs and services in 2005, with deeper cuts likely in future years.
Posted by: anne on February 4, 2004 11:49 AMThe big story is usually spending but revenues have been the underreported story. Specifically, Bush Inc has way overestimated revenue every year. They are not even close. Danile Gross point this out:
http://slate.msn.com/id/2094801/
02 estimate was over by 15.5% 03 was over by 13% and the 04 estimate was recently cut by 6.5%. They forecast revenues will rise by 13%. which is a fantasy that has not happened since the inflation year of 1981.
Add this to the inability to estimate prescription drug costs and we have the economic equivalent of intelligence failure. How can they be so wrong?
Posted by: bakho on February 4, 2004 11:56 AMhttp://www.cbpp.org/1-15-04bud.htm
- Combined federal, state, and local revenues equaled 27 percent of the Gross Domestic Product, which was the lowest level of revenue collections — as a share of the economy — since 1968.
- The decline in government receipts has been sharpest at the federal level. Measured as a share of the economy, total federal revenues fell to their lowest level since 1959,
- with federal income tax revenues (counting both individual and corporate income tax revenues) falling to their lowest level since 1942.
- State and local government revenues declined as well, dropping to their lowest level, as a share of the economy, since 1988.
- With federal revenues declining more rapidly than state and local revenues, the share of total government revenues collected by the federal government fell to its lowest level on record. These data are available back to 1948.
Posted by: anne on February 4, 2004 12:06 PMOne of the more interesting things to me about the Post/Journal part is the fact that the Wall Street Journal, which usually makes no bones about being the more Conservative version of the NYT, is putting out an analysis that is far more critical of the Bush Budget than the assumed to be liberal Washington Post. If the post really were the liberal paper here, wouldn't they have at least done something to point out some of the negative spin there?
The WaPo may have deteriorated in quality as far and as fast as any paper I have ever paid attention to. A few years ago they struck me as far more aggressive than they are now. Now the only thing they're aggressive over is defending themselves from criticism. To me, one of the things that shows people who are too taken with themselves is the inability to respond to criticism with anything but anger. They didn't learn a thing; they swore it off (literally). The WaPo is in a freefall right now, and it's going to take a severe shift to drag them back out of it.
P.s. Since everyone else in the comments has mentionned how poor budget projections are, remember that 2 years ago the President's budget predicted a $14 billion surplus that year. We ended up being several hundred billion in the red.
p.p.s. The reason they can be so wrong is that people like the WaPo let them get away with it.
(And if you have a second, please visit my web page, thanks)
Posted by: Balta on February 4, 2004 12:07 PMThank God for Brad Delong!
Posted by: Goldberg on February 4, 2004 12:07 PMhttp://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/03/opinion/03KRUG.html
Paul Krugman -
In particular, what's going on with the tax on corporate profits? That source of revenue is down, as a percent of G.D.P., to 1930's levels. No, that's not a misprint. And receipts are not growing nearly as fast as one would expect, given an economic recovery that has bypassed workers but given big gains to their employers.
Posted by: anne on February 4, 2004 12:09 PMWay to go Anne!!!
Jan auto & light truck sales 16.1M
down 9.1% from Dec 17.7M
They were 17.5 in the 3rd Q
and 16.9 in the 4th Q.
It looks like 1st Q real PCE was slow from the 4th Q very slow 2.6% rate.
1st Q real gdp could be weaker than 4th Q
computer orders were down for 2nd month in Dec.
Keep up the good work Brad.
The internet -- Boggs -- can be a truth squad
& force the press to finally do some good --honest--reporting.
corporate taxes were 26.6% of pre tax profits last quarter vs. an average ratio of 38% since 1948.
You've drawn a response. I am sure you are driving the WaPo nuts.
Keep at it. The Capital deserves a good newspaper of record.
This is not directly related to this thread but I think it deserves attention -- From Balta web page (link above):
"Yes, that's right taxpayers, $10 million in your cash being used to openly advertise a highly partisan proposal. We knew the Admin. has done stuff like this in the past (having local city gov'ts pay for security while Bush goes and fund-raises, etc.), but I think this is about as blatant as you can get.
Can you imagine Bill Clinton taking out $10 million in federal funds to support Hillary's health care program in the early 90's? Would you have wanted to pay for the advertising campaign? This is totally ridiculous, and deserves at least a Congressional rebuke, if not censure."
One needs to remember what the Republicans did to "win" the election in 2000. They are liable to be even more aggressive in 2004, unless they begin to get some reaction to stuff like this starting no sooner than now.
I hope you CCed Weisman just to show him that
you bear him no hatred. It's the message, not
the messenger.
Continuing with the drop in revenue- what is going on? A big increase in revenue in the late 90s we know was the stock market bubble. Is the burst responsible for some revenue loss? Tax law allows stock losses to be written off up to about $3000. against profits and the remaining losses carried into future years. Are these past losses still being carried forward and causing a loss of revenue from current stock profits?
What are the technical factors that are causing revenue loss? Any serious consideration of deficit reduction has to get revenue back up to about 19% of GDP. I would think the administration and Congress would be scratching their heads over why they are under 16%.
Reporting revenue shortfall is MIA at the WaPo.
Posted by: bakho on February 4, 2004 12:35 PMBrad, remembering Wittgenstein but here OT:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/eco-monde/20040203.FIG0077.html (+ translation)
Go, go Brad go!
Posted by: Picono-Klast on February 4, 2004 12:40 PMMatt Stoller piece is pretty good by the way:
http://www.bopnews.com/archives/000247.html#000247
If this was already on this thread, please forgive oversight -- Im trying to finish up some work by midnight...
Posted by: bulent on February 4, 2004 12:50 PMHow much better a thing it is to be envied than to be pitied, finished!
Posted by: Picono-Klast on February 4, 2004 12:59 PM"Continuing with the drop in revenue- what is going on?"
- Indeed?
Posted by: anne on February 4, 2004 01:07 PMI emailed Weisman for a comment. I wonder if he'll get back to me. Probably not.
Posted by: MattS on February 4, 2004 01:17 PMAnne,
Perhaps the answer lies in Spencer's note above:
corporate taxes were 26.6% of pretax profits last quarter vs. an average ratio of 38% since 1948.
>>> One of the more interesting things to me about the Post/Journal part is the fact that the Wall Street Journal, which usually makes no bones about being the more Conservative version of the NYT, is putting out an analysis that is far more critical of the Bush Budget than the assumed to be liberal Washington Post.
Well, the WSJ may be borderline insane on its editorial/op-ed pages, but it has a reputation to maintain on the news pages. And a readership that, I presume, doesn't want to receive rewritten press releases.
Posted by: blah on February 4, 2004 02:08 PM"Perhaps the answer lies in Spencer's note above:
corporate taxes were 26.6% of pretax profits last quarter vs. an average ratio of 38% since 1948."
No question. But, I wish I understood the mechanisms for tax avoidance that are most used by corporations and individuals. I am set to ask some attorneys.
Posted by: anne on February 4, 2004 02:20 PMLook a here, fellers, from that Le Figaro link somebody just posted -- Picono-Klast -- I get the feeling that the Republicans are pretty much able to convince a lot of people that the economy would have been in much worse shape without the tax cuts. They claim the economy was turning downhill any way towards end of Clinton 2nd term and then defense spending HAD TO BE increased (this one such a big lie, of course).
How to counter that? They appear to be getting away with it.
Posted by: bulent on February 4, 2004 02:44 PMI think it's important that those of us active in reading/writing in the blogosphere keep informing ombudsmen/public editors/reporters when we read cogent criticism (or praise) of stories in the mainstream press. The more that they realize we're talking among ourselves and pointing out to each other their failures (and successes), the more careful and thoughtful they'll be in writing. One reason they wanted so far off track could be the lack of quick and informed feedback on what they've written/published.
Posted by: BayMike on February 4, 2004 05:18 PMIndeed. It's great to see an intelligent, insightful blog make waves in the real world. Way to go Brad!
Posted by: non economist on February 4, 2004 05:29 PMI'm friends with folks in Washington who are charter members of the Georgetown dinner party set that Nixon used in inveigh against -- liberals with close ties to every Democrat since Kennedy.
They tell me that the talk in their circle is how much the WaPo has deteriorated under Donald Graham. Too close to the White House, no zest or fire in their reporting, increasingly a mediocre paper much like LATimes/ChiTrib rather than credible rival to NYT. And the the deterioration has accelerated since Kay Graham's death.
Posted by: kit on February 4, 2004 07:02 PMEver worked a job where you are set up to fail? Where the incentives are set up in such a way that you are expected or required to do a shoddy job? When you get singled out and chewed out by a customer, you think "why is this asshole picking on me when I'm doing the same crappy job anyone would do?" In other words, you feel the same way Weisman does. This indicates a problem with the Post, more than an individual problem with Weisman.
Which is not to say that I wouldn't expect more professionalism from an overworked 16 year-old fry cook at Burger King.
Posted by: rps on February 4, 2004 07:19 PMThis redaction is unconscionable! What are you trying to hide, DeLong? Release the full text!
You so-called liberals are so hypocritical. President Bush is a dishonest traitor if he doesn't release his military records, or if he keeps the names of a few energy advisors to himself, but when J. Bradford Delong writes an email to an ombudsman it's A-OK for him to edit it according to his whim.
Posted by: Anno-nymous on February 4, 2004 10:20 PMAnno-nymous wrote, "You so-called liberals are so hypocritical. ..."
Logical fallacy: false analogy.
Posted by: liberal on February 5, 2004 02:22 AMDo give books - religious or otherwise - for Christmas. They're never fattening, seldom sinful, and permanently personal.
Posted by: Lichtenberg Amanda on March 17, 2004 06:38 PMYou are free and that is why you are lost.
Posted by: Lewin Luigi on May 2, 2004 01:12 PMNothing's far when one wants to get there.
Posted by: Lall Paul on May 3, 2004 12:42 AMWe are as God made us, and often a great deal worse.
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