February 08, 2004

Why Do People Think Bush Went AWOL in the First Place?

Have you ever wondered why people presume that George W. Bush ran out on the Texas Air National Guard in May of 1972? It's because that is what his Texas Air National Guard retirement statement says. He didn't serve a day in the Texas Air National Guard after May of 1972. From Kevin Drum: ,/p>

Calpundit: ARF!: Bush's official records from Texas show no actual duty after May 1972, as his Form 712 Master Personnel Record from the Texas Air National Guard clearly indicates:

Bush's record shows three years of service, followed by a fourth year in which he accumulated only a dismal 22 days of active service, followed by no service at all in his fifth and sixth years.

Bush certainly wasn't serving in the Texas Air National Guard in his fifth 1972-1973 year or his sixth 1973-1974 year. What was he doing? Ah, that's unclear. Kevin Drum is trying to figure it out.

Posted by DeLong at February 8, 2004 09:05 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

Do we know then this document was created? If it was near May '72, it would not prove he did not serve afterward.

Posted by: Matt on February 8, 2004 10:01 PM

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I've wondered what role sloppy record keeping could have played in this mess? In the span of four years

* My SRB (service record book) was gone from my company office for approx 8 months; Legal Affairs had checked it out, and neglected to return it. The clerks who _gave_ them my book filled out the check-out card incorrectly so no one really knew where it was

* My medical records went missing. They turned up three years later.

* My seperation paperwork (DD-214) was grossly incorrect.

That's one guy, and my experience is pretty normal. I can only imagine what things were like pre-computer and in the Reserves.

Posted by: Brian on February 8, 2004 10:07 PM

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Did your unit commanders also say that they hadn't seen you since May 1972?

Posted by: Brad DeLong on February 8, 2004 10:13 PM

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Not apropos of this post, but because I've had unreliable results in e-mailing you, at times, may I call your attention to the following that I expect you'll want to blog?

http://www.nybooks.com/articles/16911

Incidentally, for more than a few days now, on my Mozilla Firebird, the title of your blog at the top has appeared to be "Brad DeLong's Brad DeLong's Semi-Daily Journal (2004): a Weblog" (sic).

Posted by: Gary Farber on February 8, 2004 10:46 PM

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Prof. DeLong,
Exactly. This public record sleuthing is fun, but eyewitness testimony is more convincing. I will admit, though, that documents such as this help build a coherent timeline and may shrink the set of believable lies.

Posted by: Matt on February 8, 2004 10:48 PM

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George Bush was a secret agent working deep-cover to overthrow communism. During his many dangerous missions behind the iron curtain he met a young CIA spook by the name of Valerie Plame, he used to snort cocaine off of her perfect white alabaster belly.

Daddy got him the job.

Posted by: bryan on February 9, 2004 01:01 AM

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Reading conservatives' reactions to the interview, it seems that (1) the AWOL story has them worried, and (2) Bush's evasiveness on the economy has them incensed. But (3) the war is *not* the issue for them. I think that if the Democrats focus on 1 and especially 2, they stand a much better chance than if they focus on 3.

Posted by: Anonymous on February 9, 2004 02:00 AM

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Can you imagine how bad our press corps must be not to have turned up these documents first?

Posted by: Rich Puchalsky on February 9, 2004 03:06 AM

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RUSSERT: But would you allow pay stubs, tax records, anything to show that you were serving during that period?

BUSH: Yeah. If we still have them, but you know, the records are kept in Colorado, as I understand, and they scoured the records. And I'm just telling you, I did my duty, and it's politics, you know, to kind of ascribe all kinds of motives to me. But I have been through it before. I'm used to it. What I don't like is when people say serving in the Guard may not be a true service.

"and they scoured the records"

Who scoured the records? Is it me or should that have been followed up? Is it routine for records to be "scoured?"

Posted by: OneGuy on February 9, 2004 03:53 AM

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OK I admit reporters don't read blogs (see my comment to Andrew Claude Sullivan Rains). Based on http://www.democrats.com/display.cfm?id=154
I would say that Bush's butt is definitely nailed to the wall and Has been since October 4 2000.

The key point is that a photocopy of the untorn version of the torn document was sent to the farmer Heldt (called to fight his AWOL CIC Cincinatus left the plow). It shows that Bush got credit for no show service in the Army reserve not for national guard service.

Now our press corps is aweful but why didn't google send me to that page ?

Posted by: robert on February 9, 2004 04:03 AM

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While this reinforces the notion that Mr. Bush is a hypocrite, the pertinent issues for 2004 remain the job-less economy and how to extricate ourselves from Iraq without destabilizing the region. A successful challenge to Mr. Bush requires that the voters see the challenger as having a better grasp of those economic and Iraq policy.

BTW, did you hear Bush Inc predict the economy would generate 2.6 million new jobs this year? They expect the supply side stimulus to kick in any day now.

Posted by: bakho on February 9, 2004 07:09 AM

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Bush is looking weak.
My only concern is that the Republicans pull a foreign policy surprise in October to steal the election.
I think Chritopher Hitchens did some good work on the 68 election showing that Kissinger manipulated peace negotiations with North Vietneam and make the war heat up to allow for a Nixon victory in 68.
Bush Senior and the October surprise in 1980 with the Iran hostages. The CIA making sure that Iran did not release then until after the election and a Carter Loss.

Now these things may be true or they may be baloney, but I think the Democrats should take out a little insurance and start talking about the capture of Osama Bin Laden.

If not I can see an October capture and photo photo photo ops for a jubilant president. "We are winning the War on terror. I am a winner. Vote for me"

Democrats need to neutralise this event by talking about it now.

Posted by: Scott McArthur on February 9, 2004 07:28 AM

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I completely agree with Scott McArthur. Between now and November I am sure that Bush will use his powers as Commander-in-Chief to change the political agenda. I think that the Democrats should try to anticipate this and be prepared with a quick, strong response when it happens.

I bet they won't, though.

Bakho -- among Bush's strongest supporters are many who do not vote on issues, but more in terms of personal loyalty, respect for character, and admiration for macho. Both Bush's evasiveness on the question and the actual facts will bother many of these voters, and they might just stay home. This is OUR wedge issue -- something which divides the opposition.

Posted by: zizka / John Emerson on February 9, 2004 08:04 AM

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"Who scoured the records? Is it me or should that have been followed up? Is it routine for records to be "scoured?""

Bush obviously misspoke, the accurate idiom is "scrubbed"

Posted by: bob mcmanus on February 9, 2004 08:12 AM

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Lt. Bob Rogers has an interview on WAGE radio (Leesburg).

http://easylink.playstream.com/marklevine/InsideScoop2-8-04.wax

Rogers, along with Martin Heldt, was one of the key people in breaking this story in 2000.

Posted by: Charles on February 9, 2004 08:12 AM

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"I think Chritopher Hitchens did some good work on the 68 election showing that Kissinger manipulated peace negotiations with North Vietneam and make the war heat up to allow for a Nixon victory in 68."

Which would have been a neat trick, given that LBJ was President in 1968.

" Bush Senior and the October surprise in 1980 with the Iran hostages. The CIA making sure that Iran did not release then until after the election and a Carter Loss."

According to Jimmy--I will never lie to you--Carter's memoir of his presidency, "Keeping Faith", it was Carter himself who turned down a deal to release the hostages prior to the election.

Posted by: Patrick R. Sullivan on February 9, 2004 08:17 AM

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I think a key question is: why did Bush refuse to take a medical exam and STOP flying after the government spent over $1 million to train him?

Posted by: Dave Johnson on February 9, 2004 08:22 AM

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hmmm the facsimile seems to have sent our friend Patrick Sullivan to the gamma quadrant. I thought the post was about Bush.

Posted by: robert on February 9, 2004 08:32 AM

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Another:

"I think Chritopher Hitchens did some good work on the 68 election showing that Kissinger manipulated peace negotiations with North Vietneam and make the war heat up to allow for a Nixon victory in 68."

Patrick:
"Which would have been a neat trick, given that LBJ was President in 1968."

A neat trick, true, although I'd call it treason. However, if what you meant was 'not possible', I have to disagree. Kissinger would be fully capable of negotiating with the North Vietnamese on behalf of Nixon, even though neither held official office.

Posted by: Barry on February 9, 2004 08:48 AM

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bryan writes: "During his many dangerous missions behind the iron curtain he met a young CIA spook by the name of Valerie Plame, he used to snort cocaine off of her perfect white alabaster belly"

Which would suggest Bush is a pedophile, since Valerie Plame would have been rather young.

Posted by: Jon H on February 9, 2004 09:15 AM

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"I think Chritopher Hitchens did some good work on the 68 election showing that Kissinger manipulated peace negotiations with North Vietneam and make the war heat up to allow for a Nixon victory in 68."

Which would have been a neat trick, given that LBJ was President in 1968.

Patrick Sullivan is clearly ignorant of American diplomatic history. It is well documented Kissinger hamstrung peace negotiations withthe North Vietnamese long before Nixon was elected. Moreover, Kissinger fed the Nixon campaign sensitive information concerning the negotiations.

Posted by: Russ on February 9, 2004 10:10 AM

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I wonder if by "they scoured the records" he meant "tney scrubbed the records"?

Posted by: M.Tullius on February 9, 2004 11:21 AM

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PK Sullivan -

Without meaning to, you reveal why, exactly, Kissinger should have been tried for treason.

Conversely, it also shows the short, sad slide of a 'brave' soothsayer like Hitchens who called Henry a war criminal, now finds himself on the same plutocratic side of those kind of ugly lies of convenience and standing up strong in favor of geopolitical mendacity to promote a means to an end.

Posted by: J on February 9, 2004 12:08 PM

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OK, so people should want to check the Calpundit site Brad mentioned right about now:

http://www.calpundit.com/archives/003220.html

It turns out that we may have a solution to the "where was George W. Bush" mess. The newest document posted there suggests that Bush was re-assigned (possibly as a disciplinary measure after skipping his physical) to the ARF...not the Texas unit he started out with.

Posted by: Jonathan King on February 9, 2004 12:42 PM

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Pat,
Point me to where I can read that Carter turned down an opportunity to save his Presidency. I suppose it is possible, but I would like to evaluate your source.
Hopefully not Bob Novak - GOP hack.

Posted by: Scott McArthur on February 9, 2004 01:13 PM

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Scott, it would not have "saved his presidency", but I already have pointed you to it: "Keeping Faith".

According to Carter's own memoir, on September 10th, 1980, the West German foreign minister relays a message from the Ayatollah Khomeini, that he is sending an emissary to Europe for the purpose of meeting with someone in the Carter administration about resolving the hostage situation. The emissary was Sadegh Tabatabai, and according to Jimmy, he did indeed have a substantive proposal that was not all unacceptable.

Warren Christopher negotiated a modified proposal with Tabatabai that everyone was happy with, and Tabatabai prepared to return to Iran to report favorably to Khomeini. Here is Jimmy Carter’s description of what happened next:

"As fate would have it, the Iraqis chose the day of his scheduled arrival in Iran, September 22, to invade Iran and to bomb the Tehran airport. Typically, the Iranians accused me of planning and supporting the invasion. By the time
Tabatabai finally arrived in Iran a week or so later, the revolutionary leaders had shifted their attention from releasing the hostages to defending their own country against the invaders."

But, after a few weeks of war, Tabatabai is
back in Germany to talk some more, and he makes an offer of a phased withdrawal(a tit for tat release of the hostages in four groups). Carter rejects it because, he didn’t want to let the Iranians, "single out certain hostages as
being more worthy of release than others".

But Carter keeps the negotiations open, and they continue into the final week-end before the election. And this is no secret, Carter makes a public statement at the time that he has received a positive proposal from Iran about releasing the hostages. However, nothing happens before the election. Carter writes in his diary on Nov. 29, 1980:

"We have to remember that [Iran's] Prime Minister Rajai is strongly anti-American, very primitive in his outlook, highly suspicious, and not eager
to see the hostages released. We still don't have any sure word, by the way, as to who is in charge of the hostages at this moment....There's no way to tell what the facts might be."

Posted by: Patrick R. Sullivan on February 9, 2004 03:14 PM

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" Kissinger should have been tried for treason."

For being a private citizen in Paris in 1968? For alerting Richard Nixon that LBJ was trying to manipulate the negotiations just prior to the election so Hubert Humphrey would get some good news?

If anyone was guilty of treason it was LBJ.

Posted by: Patrick R. Sullivan on February 9, 2004 03:23 PM

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Why the big flapdoodle? The Compleat Bush military records can be found at http://www.genslab.com/gwbrecords.htm.

Posted by: Marcus Sitz on February 9, 2004 04:32 PM

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Is this a thread about George W. Bush, or is it Patrick R. Sullivan's competency hearing? I definitely don't think that he should be allowed access to matches or sharp tools.

Posted by: zizka / John Emerson on February 9, 2004 06:09 PM

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Brad DeLong
"Did your unit commander also say that they hadn't seen you since May 1972?"

I take your point (really I do). I will add, however, that I had several COs who would have been hard pressed to pull me out of a lineup, let alone know who I was years later. And yes, I was enlisted, and Mr. Bush was an officer but still ...

Brian 'Nitpick' Dunbar

Posted by: Brian on February 9, 2004 09:53 PM

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This just in:

Bush to Release Military Pay Records
President Bush, Facing Questions on National Guard Service, to Release His Military Pay Records

The Associated Press

WASHINGTON Feb. 10 — The White House, facing election-year questions about President Bush's military service, is releasing pay records and other information intended to support his assertion that he fulfilled his duty as a member of the Air National Guard during the Vietnam war.
The material, to be released Tuesday, was to include annual retirement point summaries and pay records to show that Bush served.



The point summaries were released during the 2000 presidential campaign. "They show that the president fulfilled his duties, and that is why he was honorably discharged," White House press secretary Scott McClellan said Monday.

Bush's military record was raised as an issue in the 2000 campaign and was revived this year by Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe, who called Bush "AWOL" absent without leave during a period of his service when he was in Alabama.

Bush enlisted in the Texas Air National Guard in 1968 shortly before graduating from Yale University.

Questions have been raised about whether family connections helped him get into the Guard when there were waiting lists for what was seen as an easy billet. Bush says no one in his family pulled strings and that he got in because others didn't want to commit to the almost two years of active duty required for fighter pilot training.

A central issue is whether he showed up for duty while assigned to Guard units in Alabama, where he worked on a political campaign in 1972. "There may be no evidence, but I did report," Bush told NBC's "Meet the Press" on Sunday. "Otherwise, I wouldn't have been honorably discharged."

Another question is why he was allowed to end Guard duty about six months early to attend Harvard Business School. Bush said on NBC that he had "worked it out with the military. And I'm just telling you, I did my duty."

http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20040210_625.html

Posted by: Kosh on February 10, 2004 07:02 AM

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"Is this a thread about George W. Bush, or is it Patrick R. Sullivan's competency hearing? I definitely don't think that he should be allowed access to matches or sharp tools."

For responding, in every case, to something another poster has written?

Posted by: Patrick R. Sullivan on February 10, 2004 08:05 AM

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You know, it is not his fault he was born into the old-boy network, where everything is set-up for him.
It's his Daddy's fault for making him weak this way, to have everything handed to him, like a supreme court judge giving him a election, and lawyers throwing law suits to have votes not counted. That is about as democratic as having things fixed so you do not have to go 'Nam.
But to think of it, Bush Sr. did his son a great disservice, by flying in the "Big One" and jettising out into the Pacific and doing his duty, it assisted George Herbert Walker Bush being a the 1st Bush "war president"- and having a hair trigger and sending missels into Iraq his last week in office as a parting good-bye to Sadaam just before Clinton took office because Sadaam was infringing on the no-fly zone just as Bush Sr. was packing up his trunks back to Kennebunkport.
So you see, it is always the parents fault, remember that. George Sr. itchy trigger finger rubbed off well on his son, but his son was a panzy-ass that hid from his duty while his brothers fell down dead in Vietnam.
It is so simple, yet you all have amnesia

Posted by: Dave S on February 10, 2004 08:30 AM

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In his errors a man is true to type. Observe the errors and you will know the man.

Posted by: Levy Rachel on March 17, 2004 08:26 PM

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Imitation is the sincerest form of television.

Posted by: Munisteri Ben on May 2, 2004 02:03 PM

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Any certainty is a delusion.

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