February 10, 2004

The Financial Times Comes Through!

Ah. The Financial Times--a superior newspaper--comes through:

Critics attack White House's upbeat forecast By Alan Beattie in Washington Published: February 9 2004 20:06 | Last Updated: February 10 2004 19:14: The White House's senior economic advisers delivered an upbeat message on the US economy on Monday, predicting steady economic growth and rapid employment gains in 2004. But their forecast for strong job growth next year was immediately attacked by the administration's critics, who said it was overly optimistic and at odds with the rest of the forecast.

The forecast, which used data available in early December before figures were released showing disappointing jobs growth at the end of the year, envisaged the average level of payroll jobs rising 2.6m in 2004 to 132.7m. That target has been affected by the weak figures released since, but White House staff admitted their forecast implied job growth averaging about 325,000 a month this year - well in excess of recent rates. The annual Economic Report of the President from the White House Council of Economic Advisers forecast economic growth at 4 per cent in 2004, around the average for independent forecasts. But the rise in productivity, or output per hour, was predicted to slow sharply from 4.2 per cent in 2003 to 1.4 per cent in 2004, the staff said, below its long-run average of 2.1 per cent.

Projecting a lower productivity rate for any given growth in output implies more gains in jobs. Critics of the administration said they were massaging their forecasts to produce predictions of job growth. "These numbers are absurd," said Lee Price, research director at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute in Washington. "They are taking no account of the way the economy has been behaving."

A White House official rejected the criticism, saying: "Accusations that we are deliberately fixing the forecast are preposterous." Productivity growth was expected to slow naturally from very high growth rates as the recovery proceeded, the official said.

Aha. Now it becomes clear, looking at Table C-2.* 4% per year real GDP growth plus +0.4% for the fact that the nonfarm business sector is projected to be an increasing share of the economy -3.0% for employment growth = 1.4% per year for productivity growth. The numbers add up.

Why hours per worker are not expected to grow in calendar 2004 is not explained. After all, if demand for workers is strong enough to make firms hire workers at a 3% annual rate, you would expect they would also ask their existing workers to work a little longer, no?

Why nonfarm business productivity should be expected to grow at only 1.4% per year in 2004 when it has grown at 2.7%, 2.3%, 3.7%, 4.5%, and 5.1% in the past five years--and is projected by the administration to grow at 2.1% over the next six--is also left unexplained. You have to go back to 1995 to find a calendar year in which productivity grew at less than 1.4% per year.

A forecast that productivity would grow at its average of the past five years of 3.7% per year would reduce the employment growth forecast from 320,000 per month to 76,000 per month. A forecast that productivity would grow at 3% per year in 2004 would reduce the employment growth forecast from 320,000 per month to 150,000 per month


*The choice of 1990:3 to 2003:3 for their final historical period is not innocent. For one thing, it creates the false illusion that the trend increase in the employment-to-population ratio came to a halt in 1990. Adding another breakpoint either in 1995 or 2000 would seem to me to make more sense.

Posted by DeLong at February 10, 2004 04:25 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

Why hours per worker are not expected to grow in calendar 2004 is not explained. After all, if demand for workers is strong enough to make firms hire workers at a 3% annual rate, you would expect they would also ask their existing workers to work a little longer, no?

I believe the argument is that employers have felt unsure about the recovery thus far and they've been pushing their existing workers rather hard instead of hiring more people. Now, though, they feel confident the recovery really is happening, and they'll hire away without trying to squeeze those extra hours out of current employees. I'm not certain I agree with this, but it at least sounds somewhat plausible. The productivity piece seems a lot more suspiciious to me.

Posted by: Dimmy Karras on February 10, 2004 05:37 PM

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Sorry, italics didn't work, first paragraph of my post above is quoting from Prof. DeLong, second paragraph is me responding.

Posted by: Dimmy Karras on February 10, 2004 05:39 PM

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Let's bring another Bush favorite to put the lie to their forecast.

The new overtime rules that Bush demanded will allow employers to force their workers to work more hours for less pay. It looks like the new rules will indeed become law with the passage of the Omnibus Bill. At that point, only the most foolish of employers will hire more people instead of just demanding more hours from existing workers. With overtime eliminated for 8 million workers, the incremental cost of, say, doubling their work hours is zero. Compare that to the cost of hiring even one additional worker. (And, given the shitty labor market and steady destruction of unions, workers are more likely to take such abuse without too much complaint.)

Thus, by the very conditions which Bush has demanded, it is not economically possible for jobs to increase at the forecast rate or even at a fraction of that rate.

Posted by: Derelict on February 10, 2004 06:25 PM

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Don't you know that hours worked will surge because of the huge supply side incentive effects of the tax cuts ;)

Maybe the reduction in productivity growth next year is due to the lagged effect of the "Clinton tax hike", just like the 90s prod. boom was set off by the lagged effects of the Reagan tax cuts.

Hey this kind of fun!

Posted by: lerxst on February 10, 2004 06:42 PM

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Growth in Productivity, Payroll, GDP (chain), Change in Hours
1991 1.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3
1992 3.9 -0.6 3.3 0.3
1993 0.3 1.3 2.7 0.6
1994 1.2 2.5 4.0 0.3
1995 0.6 3.5 2.5 -0.9
1996 2.5 1.6 3.7 0.6

2000 2.7 2.6 3.7 -1.2
2001 2.1 2.1 0.5 -0.3
2002 4.9 -1.4 2.2 -0.3
2003 4.2 - 0.2 3.1 - 0.9
2004 ?0.5 3 4.0 ?

So they add up, and as the table below shows, in the last upswing, productivity growth fell as payroll growth picked up. Just like the CEA predicts this in the Economic report of the president.

But now we have the canard that employment growth and hours work must move together i.e. if payroll figures increase by say 3%, hours must increase by say 0.5%. Does the data bear this out – in 1995 payroll increased by 3.5% while hours worked fell by 0.9%. The rational is obvious, when growth first picks up, employees make their worker work longer hours. When growth continues, they hire additional workers which lets their existing employees return to their usual hours – hence hours worked often falls when payroll figure decline. Rearrage the puntutation and Brad’s hit it on the head.–“After all, if demand for workers is strong enough to make firms hire workers at a 3% annual rate, you would expect they would also ask their existing workers to work a little longer. No.”

Posted by: Giles on February 10, 2004 06:51 PM

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What will the OPEC announcements do to this? Presumably drag the economy down, but significantly? Can it be quantified?

Posted by: Jerry on February 10, 2004 07:23 PM

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"A White House official rejected the criticism, saying: "Accusations that we are deliberately fixing the forecast are preposterous." Productivity growth was expected to slow naturally from very high growth rates as the recovery proceeded, the official said."

I keep saying these people don't want capitalism to work so well for a while, that they don't want productivity going up so fast for a while and nobody believes me. Well, there, they eventually came out and said it themselves.

Posted by: bulent on February 10, 2004 08:24 PM

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Harry Truman said, "Give me a one-handed economist!" by which he meant, economists keep saying, "but on the other hand," since neither economists nor stock brokers have ever been able to predict, or beat, the market. Ever.

Truman also said, "We abandoned the "trickle-down" concept of national prosperity. Instead, we believe that our economic system should rest on a democratic foundation and that wealth should be created for the benefit of all."

Wow, that was a long time ago!! (And way before Reagan co-opted Hoover's bankrupt trickle down.)
What goes around, comes around: 1931 ... 2003.
Both 3 years after a trickle down'r is elected.

They're here!!!!!!!

Posted by: Mea Tspac on February 10, 2004 10:09 PM

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For what it's worth, the Blue Chip Economic Forecast reports an average estimate for monthly job growth this year of 166,000. 166,000 X 12 = 1,992,000 which is just over *half* of the 3.8M CEA is predicting!!

Posted by: Just Me on February 10, 2004 10:39 PM

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Hey, suddenly everything just came together for me!

Here's how this whole thing works:

Bush creates a plan to create a class of "documented alien workers"...

The mass bleeding of backoffice IT jobs offshore, replacing US workers making $50/hour with $9/hour workers is encouraged further by Bush's policies...

These offshore workers can "telecommute", and get documented as alien workers, right from the convenience of their own Bangalore, Bejing neighborhoods...

...and Bush gets to claim them in his job growth numbers, AND they keep the productivity numbers from being whack.

...meanwhile the displaced workers here that were making $50/hour, will accept the retail jobs paying $9/hour, merely to keep from starving, further bolstering the productivity number...again, "adding" the balance of the new jobs.

Weak dollar caused by freakish low interest rate combined with surprising OPEC quotas makes those oil imports much more expensive, 'unfortunately' raising oil industry profits, and soaking up discretionary cash that households would have otherwise spent on non-subsistence, "inflation causing" consumer spending.

...low interest rates encourage struggling families to cash out the equity in their homes for subsistence consumption...the REAL engine of this weird economy, not tax cuts, as if anyone ever really believed it was tax cuts.


looks good on paper.


If you could have imagined anything so outlandish 3 years ago, you could have positioned yourself for some pretty fantastic arbitrage opportunities. Those who felt queasy about playing that game just got into gold. Kind of helps to explain the "rats from a sinking ship" Stock crash of nov 2000.


david

p.s. -- that was fun, but now a serious question: how does the replacement of a higher paid technical job with, say, two lower paid retail jobs affect the productivity rate?

Posted by: david on February 10, 2004 11:55 PM

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The power of these lost IT jobs never ceases to amaze me. First outsourcing was bad because it could lead to a breakdown in national security, now I find out it could lead to global depression, deflation and famine. Phew, who knew giving jobs to some poor, talented Indians would wreak such devastation on the world. Its a good thing we can stop this dastardly deed from happening if we act now. I mean, it was one thing when those auto plant workers in Flint were outsourced - the world did not go into famine because they were just a bunch of overpaid guys who are not as talented as the IT guys are but man or man, the world really needs to make sure that IT is done in the U.S. or it is making a big mistake.

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