February 11, 2004

Note: Greenspan on the Household and Payroll Surveys

From Greg Ip's Wall Street Journal's article:

WSJ.com - Greenspan Predicts Upswing in Jobs: Mr. Greenspan said the payroll count is more reliable than the separate household survey, which has shown a much brighter jobs picture.

He said employment has been held back by exceptionally high growth in productivity, which has enabled employers to meet rising demand with fewer workers. The loss of jobs due to higher productivity, he said, makes more acute the loss of jobs "as a result of imports, whether it's goods or services or outsourcing or whatever." Mr. Greenspan said it is "utterly inconceivable" that productivity growth, which topped 5% last year, can continue at that rate. As businesses run out of unused labor-saving technology to exploit, it "is going to slow down significantly" and "you will begin to create significant job growth."

Posted by DeLong at February 11, 2004 06:14 PM | TrackBack

Comments

Perhaps Greenspans view will shut Kudlows stupid mouth..... not a chance. Rave on Kudlow!

Posted by: Don Beal on February 11, 2004 06:43 PM

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It's inconceivable!

Posted by: Jon H on February 11, 2004 07:05 PM

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We've been hearing for THREE FUCKING YEARS that prosperity is right around the corner. I'm getting tired of "economists" sticking their fingers in their ears and singing "La la la la... I can't hear you..."

Posted by: Firebug on February 11, 2004 08:08 PM

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Hey, I have a job, so that means everyone else has a job, right? I mean, it's just not possible that others don't have a job. Right? I mean, I'm not one of those "Lucky Duckies" am I?
Oh, God, I think I'm going to be sick.......

I know! If I just believe that everyone has a job, then, by golly, it will just have to come true! By George, I think I've got it!

Is that how it works Brad?

Posted by: Rook on February 11, 2004 08:46 PM

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Greenspan's "slowdown" is just a return to the 1995-2003 average. That seems reasonable to me...

Posted by: Brad DeLong on February 11, 2004 10:02 PM

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Why is that reasonable? Is there a short explanation, or just a gut feel for things? I will take gut feel for things, since that is about as good as anything for short term macro forecasting, I suppose. And respectable too. I'll take an experienced machanic's gut feel for what a car making funny noised might do shortly.

Posted by: jml on February 11, 2004 11:54 PM

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