The Wall Street Journal's Bob Davis spends the day on the phone, rounding up Democratic economists willing to say that Greg Mankiw is correct when he says that "outsourcing" is, for America as a whole, more of an opportunity than a threat (even though it looks like Greg could use some of the lessons about talking to reporters that were beaten into me by people like Jack DeVore and Gene Sperling).
Who does he succeed in rounding up? Former CEA Chair Janet Yellen... former CEA Chair and NEC Head Laura D'Andrea Tyson... former Labor Secretary Bob Reich (I think Reich hits the exact right note when he criticizes the Bush administration for failing to make "a serious attempt to deal with the profound structural problems of an economy in transition as it affects middle-class jobs"; working-class jobs too; it is certainly true that the Bush administration is much more concerned with the problems of CEOs suffering under SEC overreach than it is with the problems of regular people who have lost their jobs)... and former Treasury lowly worm-analyst Brad DeLong. Very nice company to be in.
However: note to self: be less colorful when talking to Wall Street Journal reporters!
Posted by DeLong at February 11, 2004 10:25 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this postAll these folks are (or have been) associated with UC Berkeley.
Robert Reich did hit the perfect note on Marketplace this afternoon speaking on the fundamental Democratic strategy for restoring the economy: good quality jobs secured via competitive advantages as a result of training, health care, and um, something else, I forget.
Though I am a Haas alum, I am still not ready to drink the kool-aid of free trade over fair trade. I understand that all else being equal, free trade and comparative advantage has the greatest effect. I don't know why you free trade economists support polluters, child labor violations, dangerous workplaces, etc., or why you want to tear down the benefits and guarantees that American Labor, our parents worked so hard for. Why must I put my child to work grinding diamonds just so that in 30 years we can help assure that other children won't be grinding diamonds?
Also terribly dubious and clearly just wrong is the economists' view that all jobs are equivalent. This goes past the IT worker now working at Wal-mart issue. This is the you need steel workers that become mechanical engineers that become software engineers that become genetic engineers, but if you chop away the software engineers and the genetic engineers YOU CANNOT GET TO THE nano engineers. There are path dependencies that youse free trade economists love to ignore.
In 97 as I graduated from Haas, I had been given two years of the kool-aid of the efficient market. Yes, the market is efficient was the mantra. Professor Spiegel gave his famous one dollar auction proving, PROVING, that there is no such thing as a short term speculator. In 99 of course the bubble burst and by 2000 the Haas school was sending brochures out to alums to come and attend a $1000 workshop to explore the new mantra: that markets aren't efficient and are guided by psychological behavior.
How many outsourced economists will it take before economists discover that free trade is a religion too?
Posted by: UC Berkeley Alum on February 11, 2004 11:38 PMAh yes, it's "rational self-interest" to want jobs off-shored.
Just as long, "crippling" strikes are "bad for the economy" and "not in your self interest".
Just as "progressive tax policy" is not in your self-interest and is bad for the economy.
Just as crazies rioted at the WTO meeting in Seattle a few years back.
All these observations presuppose that "economic growth" is what people want, while there's very little evidence that it's entirely true.
There have been many, many experiments that show that people are willing to lose money if they can be sure that they are sticking it to someone who has more. And not just in man; it appears to be a highly conserved trait among social primates. Nowhere do I see this factored into the theory of "free trade".
And why should international trade be any different? All in all, I'd rather work for my neighbors, and have my neighbors, indirectly, working for me.
Posted by: p mac on February 11, 2004 11:59 PMWhat comparative advantage? Education? Consider California.
Infrastructure? Got broadband & dark fiber, lack railroads. Best highways, lack oil, though. Got coal, but.
Best military in the world. Hell of a thermonuclear deterrent. Take that, miscreant malefactors!
It might be time to reconsider comparative advantage. Perhaps our beef, corn and soybeans are the best in the world.
Posted by: bad Jim on February 12, 2004 02:58 AMTrade restrictions come with their own set of perils. Look at the Bush steel tariffs, designed to prop dinosaur steel mills that are not profitable and should go away. Rather than letting them go down and managing the fallout to pensioners and workers, Bush imposed temporary steel tariffs.
The immediate effect was that steel became so much cheaper overseas, that it is cheaper to buy steel parts manufactured overseas than it is to buy the raw steel in the US. This has turned many Midwestern Mfg into distributors. The mfg employees are undemployed. Why do you think MI has unemployment over 7%?? Why do you think mfg jobs are going overseas? The steel tariffs sped up the process.
What do you do next, put a tariff on steel parts? Then the mfg goods are cheaper overseas and the US distributors go out of business because their buyers have left. The bottom line is a few jobs in the steel industry were protected at the expense of rapid job loss in steel parts mfg. It is necessary to look at the BIG picture, not one small segment. Economists who can study the BIG picture understand this. The public that experiences only small parts of the BIG picture does not.
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Posted by: bakho on February 12, 2004 06:04 AMI'm glad Mankiw is supporting free trade. Now if he can get this message across to his boss.
Posted by: Harold McClure on February 12, 2004 06:12 AMBrad, second on your note to yourself. I believe "come back to haunt him" was the noncolorful cliche you were looking for... Your alternative proves the alliterative is not always appetizing.
Posted by: WoburnDave on February 12, 2004 06:47 AMFirst the upside of moving jobs overseas.
It is a very positive development that China and India, as well as Russia, are growing middle class entrepreneurial cultures, concentrations of knowledge work and the infrastructure that supports them. It is this class of people that will push China and India forward along the road to Democracy, and their demands for more freedom of movement - financial, physical and social - as well as accountability and transpearancy that will push these nations to adopt far reaching restructuring.
It also means less poverty, less instability, and a spreading of general demand for goods and services.
It also means, on the upside, that Americans can go back to using their best talents: how many mathematicians, civil engineers, writers, chemists and others have become programmers because that is where the money is? Real progress on a host of issues can go forward again: the capital locked up in twiddling bits is being let loose.
Now for the downside: there is a bottleneck commodity: energy. As long as affluence is a zero sum game - and right now it is - then there will be rising, and indeed eventually unstoppable, pressures for isolationism and protectionism. Every nation will see that every good job created someplace else, is that much less for their citizens. The Republican Party is feeling this pressure now, as many of its constituencies are demanding selective protectionism.
To be the cynical political economist for a moment: the people who are least worried about outsourcing are the ones whose jobs aren't going to be outsourced. This means that people who say, work for prestigious American Universities - aren't worried that tomorrow they are going to ship UCal Berkeley to Mumbai. Sorry for the dig Brad, but you can see what I mean. More generally, people who work in classified industries are all in favor of "lower prices" because they know that "lower prices" aren't going to come at the cost of lower wages for them - at least in the short run.
Until the energy bottleneck is solved, this quandry will be increasingly pressing. The solutions are out there, and many of them are ready for market - but the cost is changing the economic incentives that we currently have in place. The longer we wait, the more dramatic the restructuring will have to be when we engage in it.
- - -
This debate points to the difference between free trade and open trade. A free society is not necessarily an open one: Japan is largely a free society, but it is not an open society. Free trade - lack of restrictions on capital and commodity movement - is not open trade - that is, one where the rule making procedures are visible to all.
If the 1930's taught us anything, it is that inflation fighting programs based on concentration camp disincentives to exercising price power, combined with captive currencies and large cheap labor pools, are highly effective in free trade competition. However, they are not politically or economically sustainable.
Open trade then requires that the decision process of nations that engage in it, and make use of its access to liquidity, meet standards of transpearancy and accountability. Without these, there is incentive for some nations to subisidize their economies on the backs of their populations.
Further open trade, like the open society, requires that nations have economic policy regimes which aggressively create and reward competitive advantage - rather than simply rewarding concentration of liquidity.
So far, the current executive branch scores only a C on trade restriction reduciton - and closer to a D+ on open decision making and F on balancing economic incentives in favor of investment supply creation.
Well, let me offer my my humble support to Greg Mankiw _on this one_. It's probably the most truthful and courageous economic comment I have heard from someone associated with this White House. Which, of course, as Professor DeLong has noted, does not preclude trying to cushion the fall of free trade loosers, all the contrary. Was Greg Mankiw trying to make an argument in favor of strenghening extended unemployment benefits, especially in industries hit by foreign competition?
Posted by: Jean-Philippe Stijns on February 12, 2004 07:16 AMStirling Newberry:
"It also means, on the upside, that Americans can go back to using their best talents: how many mathematicians, civil engineers, writers, chemists and others have become programmers because that is where the money is? Real progress on a host of issues can go forward again: the capital locked up in twiddling bits is being let loose."
The problem with this, from my point of view, is that many (most? virtually all?) of these people didn't become programmers because that was where the money was. They became programmers because their current jobs were where the money wasn't.
A mathematician who became a (non-mathematical) programmmer because there was virtually no demand for mathematicians won't go back to being a mathematician when the (domestic) demand for programmers declines.
Posted by: Barry on February 12, 2004 07:27 AMI think I understand the comparative advantage stuff reasonably well, and I think I understand the economic argument against linking, but I do not understand the political one against linking "adjustment" compensation.
Free trade is bad for many people, although it is almost mathmatically good overall. Why shouldn't the negotiations for trade agreements, which greatly benefit one segment, be tied to policies that benefit those that do not benefit from trade agreements?
Real progress on a host of issues can go forward again: the capital locked up in twiddling bits is being let loose.
Very fine, except that human capital is not easily fungible, and much non-human capital isn't either.
Re:
Why shouldn't the negotiations for trade agreements, which greatly benefit one segment, be tied to policies that benefit those that do not benefit from trade agreements?
Because the segments that are benefited are politically powerful, and don't wish to pay for it.
Posted by: Jonathan Goldberg on February 12, 2004 08:32 AMTyler Cowen http://www.marginalrevolution.com/ discusses this morning the fact that John Kerry "attacks Mankiws words". If the Democrats win with a protectionist campaign, won't this be a pyric victory?
Posted by: David on February 12, 2004 08:56 AMI have to say that I understand comparative advantage, but with a republican congress and senate, the chance that anyone negatively affected by trade would get a fair shake is close to zero. Heck, even when there was a democratic congress I didn't see a lot of help for those who were laid off because of free trade.
Given how bad we are at helping those affected by free trade, and given that the burden of free trade's effects are dispproprtionately distributed (the working and middle class get all the penalties, while sharing relatively little of the benefits), I don't understand how protectionism can be anything BUT a rational response of the working and middle class.
Posted by: Piaw Na on February 12, 2004 09:00 AMSpeaking as a Democrat, I do not think that opposing job outsourcing qualifies as being protectionist to most people quite yet.
Posted by: Tim H. on February 12, 2004 09:06 AMSeveral direct questions for Brad:
(1) You have admitted that some groups will, if not compensated, be net losers in this game. What programs, if any, would you propose to ease the pain of offshoring and free trade on specific groups of Americans who are negatively affected by it? Please be specific.
(2) What do you think the political feasibility is of the programs (if any) that you would recommend?
(3) How would you respond to Piaw Ni's point that there is no realistic possibility that the losers of offshoring will be compensated in any way, and that therefore it is rational for the individuals in these groups to oppose it even if it results in a theoretical benefit to the country as a whole? Is it your assertion that they should sacrifice the well-being of themselves and their families for the enrichment of others? If so, what do you think is the political feasibility of *that* over the long term?
The point that I am making is that free trade is only viable over the long term if most of the American people are reasonably happy with their job situations. Economic rationalizations saying how things *should* work out only go so far, when they are clearly *not* working out right now, and there is no sign that they will any time in the near future. If you want to fight protectionism and the anti-offshoring movement, you'd better get cracking on the creation of good jobs. (Wal-Mart isn't going to impress many ex-coders.)
Posted by: Firebug on February 12, 2004 09:25 AM"Given how bad we are at helping those affected by free trade, and given that the burden of free trade's effects are dispproprtionately distributed (the working and middle class get all the penalties, while sharing relatively little of the benefits), I don't understand how protectionism can be anything BUT a rational response of the working and middle class."
Here is some data to support the above view from my favorite newspaper, the Financial Times. Also I was harangued in another thread for using the figure of one third drop in wages for software engineers... this excerpt shows that is a standard wage drop across huge hunks of the midwest for the new jobs as compared to the jobs which have been "disappeared" in this economy.
"In Michigan - which Al Gore, the Democratic candidate in 2000, won by a 5 per cent margin and is on this year's Republican target list -has been the second biggest job loser. About 225,000 jobs have been lost in the state since Mr Bush came to power, a total of 4.9 per cent of the workforce. Ohio is a similar story. The state was won by Mr Bush in 2000 with a slender margin of 3.5 per cent, but has since lost 265,000 jobs - 4.7 per cent of its workforce.
Wisconsin and Iowa were won by Mr Gore with margins of 0.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent respectively in 2000. Both have endured heavy job losses, with 2.7 per cent of the workforce disappearing in Wisconsin and 2.4 per cent in Iowa, compared to an overall fall in payrolls of 1.7 per cent across the US.
The raw numbers may even understate the political peril for Mr Bush in the country's industrial heartland.
The net job loss figures conceal the fact that many high-paying positions, mostly in manufacturing, have been replaced by lower paid service sector jobs. In Ohio the average wage in sectors that were contracting was $41,287 a year. In expanding sectors the average salary was just $29,418.
This pattern has been repeated throughout the Midwest, says Zach Schiller, a researcher at Policy Matters Ohio. "We are losing well-paid jobs in the manufacturing sector but the jobs taking their place are not nearly as good and this is causing a great deal of anxiety," he says."
On the basis of such economic realities are elections won and lost.
Posted by: camille roy on February 12, 2004 11:03 AMProfessor: "bite them in the butt"? Colorful? And they printed it. Ain't life grand?
Posted by: Masaccio on February 12, 2004 01:54 PMLet us see, free trade is wonderful because it provides a few free toys to Walmart nation, while beggaring many. After all the very Gross Domestic Product increases and we all pay less for our toys, even the homeless.
Yet the world's largest tax cuts are bad, because while they provide pennies to the masses for buying toys, they also provided millions to the rich and increase the national debt.
Posted by: Eli Rabett on February 12, 2004 07:19 PMOpposing outsourcing isn't going to be a big political winner, because the main victims are (can be portrayed as) a bunch of of overpaid 20something whiners living in half-million-dollar houses in California who didn't give a shit about the rest of the country when they were making more than twice the median family income at the age of 25 and who don't bother to vote.
Kerry can afford to offend IT people, since he's going to win California anyway, and they aren't going to vote for Bush even if he does piss them off.
Posted by: Anthony on February 15, 2004 06:01 PMWhy _wouldn't_ the Democratic candidate oppose outsourcing? The issue resonates with middle America and it provides an excellent opportunity to portray Bush as out of touch with the difficulties faced by average American citizens. And it is not just IT. *Any* job that does not require a physical presence - finance, accounting, reading X-rays - can be shipped to India, and has been over the past several years. If this keeps up we won't have much of a middle class left. New jobs? What new jobs? Wal-Mart?
Posted by: Firebug on February 15, 2004 09:33 PMGood job, Brad. Free trade, better overall. At the micro level, there are some losers -- just as when Wal-Mart moves in, other shops often find that THEY become losers; and many even quit.
How to help the US middle class (= rich on world scale)? It's morally wrong to stop the poor Indians from getting jobs from the rich; but the rich think the super-rich have too much.
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