February 19, 2004

Let's Give Scott McClellan a Copy of the 2004 Economic Report of the President!

Let's all chip in and give Scott McClellan a copy of the 2004 Economic Report of the President!

Press Briefing by Scott McClellan: Q But you have said that you inherited a recession. What it would appear is that you inherited slower growth, but not a recession.

MR. McCLELLAN: No, as I said, that any way you want to look at it, the economy was weakening, the economy was declining well before the President took office, and that is the reason we were headed into a recession. This President acted to get us out of a recession. But the facts are pretty clear. There is no question that the economy was weakening well before the President took office. GDP peaked in the fourth quarter of 2000...

Q: I just want to be clear on one thing, though. I'm sorry for monopolizing your time here, but when you say, GDP peaked in the fourth quarter of 2000, that's your declaration, no one else's, correct?

MR. McCLELLAN: Again, I can get you all the sources for all this information. It's well-known.

But if you turn to page 31 of the 2004 Economic Report of the President, it is there written that "monthly GDP reached a high point in February 2001."

Posted by DeLong at February 19, 2004 01:48 PM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
Comments

Ok, but what about quarterly GDP? When did that peak?

Posted by: vadimi on February 19, 2004 02:00 PM

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Excellent work: I smelled something fishy in all the "we inherited a recession" talk recently. And of course, there's no way to measure how well the Bushies deterred growth with all the doom and gloom they voiced early on.

Posted by: Frank on February 19, 2004 02:09 PM

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http://www.cbpp.org/2-18-04health2.htm

Administration's Proposed Tax Credit For The Purchase Of Health Insurance Could Weaken Employer-Based Health Insurance - 2/18/04

To address the problem of the uninsured, the Administration again proposes to provide a tax credit for the purchase of health insurance in the individual market. The tax credit, however, poses substantial risks to the employer-based health insurance system, relies on the flawed individual market, and is likely to be ineffective in reducing the ranks of the uninsured.

Posted by: anne on February 19, 2004 02:20 PM

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real GDP (annualized) peaked in the fourth quarter of 2000 (2000Q3 $9,218.7 B, 2003Q4 $9,243.8 B, 2001Q1 9,229.9 B). How the fact that GDP numbers turned down in the first quarter of the Bush 2 Presidency is consistent with McClellan's "we inherited it" claim is beyond me. The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (the group that makes the call on this issue) is clearly on the record that the recession started in March 2001 and ended in November 2001. Period. http://www.nber.org/cycles/july2003.html

Posted by: David on February 19, 2004 02:25 PM

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As a non-economist, I have to rely on other methods of detecting BS. Here's what my instincts tell me: if you get elected touting a tax-cut plan during an economic boom & fiscal surplus, then sell the same tax-cut plan as a remedy to economic downturn, it's BS.

Posted by: Grumpy on February 19, 2004 02:37 PM

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I'm almost beginning to feel sorry for these guys.

Oh. It passed. On with the bloodbath.

Posted by: Alan on February 19, 2004 02:40 PM

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Grumpy: Bravo! The Lindsey plan was first sold as a way to increase savings (lower consumption) but then it became a remedy for too much savings aka designed to get us to consume more. It's a floor wax, it's a desert topping.

Posted by: Harold McClure on February 19, 2004 02:46 PM

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Observation - growth under about 2% per annum has to be described as "weakening" - and 2000 growth didn't run that fast, late in the year. It isn't like Bush did something in his first 4 weeks in office which triggered the recession, it just doesn't work that way. Its kind of like driving up an icy hill - you start slowing down, and know you aren't going to make it to the top, long before you actually start sliding backwards. We were slowing all through 2000.

Posted by: rvman on February 19, 2004 02:46 PM

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rvman:

Over the 2001 to 2003 period, average per annum growth has been less than 2%. And Bush calls this a "strong economy"?

Posted by: Harold McClure on February 19, 2004 02:50 PM

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I'm with Grumpy on this. To paraphrase Bush:
2000: the economy's booming we need a tax cut.
2001: the economy's crashing we need the same tax cut.
2002: economy still sucks, more tax cuts.
2003: economy is slowly recovering better have another tax cut.
2004: now about making those tax cuts permanent...

Posted by: Retief on February 19, 2004 02:51 PM

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Two points: First of all, the tech stock boom started diving in March of 2000. This doesn't mean that's when the recession started, but it is a factor.

Second, if the recession started in March of 2001, and the first Bush tax cut wasn't even passed until June, what exactly did Bush--who took office a month or so before this--do to "cause" the recession?

Would there have been no recession if Gore had been elected?

Posted by: tbrosz on February 19, 2004 02:52 PM

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Brad is just being snipey and partisan here. Both "GDP peaked in the 4th quarter 2000" and "GDP peaked in February 2001" are accurate statements. I'd say quarterly is a more useful way of looking at things. I sure wouldn't count a couple of months of down data as a "recession". A couple of quarters, sure.

Posted by: rvman on February 19, 2004 02:55 PM

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>>Ok, but what about quarterly GDP? When did that peak?<<

Ah. You're right: 2000Q4: 9,887.7. 2001Q1: 9,882.2.

Of course, the CEA says on page 31 that it is estimated monthly real GDP that is (one of) the series they want to date the business cycle off of...

Posted by: Brad DeLong on February 19, 2004 02:56 PM

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McClellan is following the Party (note case) line:

All of the charts in this Report assume that the peak for the recent recession was in the fourth quarter of 2000. -- 2004 ERP, p. 30

Real personal income less transfers:When the NBER dated the recession, this series showed a generally steady rise throughout 2000 and early 2001. Subsequent revisions reveal that income peaked in October 2000. -- ibid., p. 31

While Mr. deLong's post is accurate:

Moreover, another data series, which the NBER has recently announced it will incorporate into its business-cycle dating process, also shows a peak before March 2001: monthly GDP reached a high point in February 2001, according to the most recently available estimates computed by a private economic consulting firm. -- ibid.

the ERP is DESPERATE to argue that:

The median date of the peak for the five series discussed here is October 2000. Other data support the notion that economic activity had slowed sharply or even begun to decline by this point, including the stock market, business investment, and initial unemployment claims(1). For these reasons, the analyses throughout this chapter (including the charts that compare this recession to past recessions) use the fourth quarter of 2000 as the peak of economic activity and the start of the recession.

and they fully expect NBER to concur on their revision.


(1) That last would be a dicey indicator for this administration, since they declare on p. 31:

Nonfarm payroll employment: The data at the time of the recession announcement showed employment growing at a substantial pace in early 2001, with 287,000 jobs added from December 2000 to its peak in March 2001. Revised data show that employment grew less than one-third of this amount in early 2001 and peaked in February 2001.

which means that the economy added about 100,000 jobs in January-February of 2001, or 50,000 a month. If < 50,000 a month is recessionary...

Posted by: Ken Houghton on February 19, 2004 02:57 PM

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tbrosz -- a) Gore was elected. b) Had Gore taken office, there would still have been a recession, but the Gore administration would not now be working hard to pin the recession on Clinton

Posted by: David on February 19, 2004 02:57 PM

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Bush helped cause the recession. Remember, in 2000 he did everything in his power to "talk down" the economy. The Bushies believed that a recession was inevitable, and wanted to get it out of the way as soon as possible, so that the economy would start to improve by 2004.

Posted by: rlm on February 19, 2004 03:04 PM

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One of the factors missing here is expectation - the economy freaked at the thought of a Bush victory after he talked it down BEFORE the election in 2000 - he needed to have a problem to solve (to look Presidential, so to speak), and he started his "the economy is going to hell in a handbasket" bit over the Summer and in the early Fall - many looking to expand (especially a small business run by a Republican) figured that he knew what he was talking about (i.e., that Bush wouldn't lie), and reality followed that expectation as sure as the sun rises in the east

Posted by: fatbear on February 19, 2004 03:04 PM

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TBROSZ, nor would Gore have taken out several trillion dollar loans on the next generation and plundered the Social Security trust fund. Bush is a credit card junkie.

Posted by: Old Hat on February 19, 2004 03:05 PM

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Oops, I was typing as rim posted the same...

Posted by: fatbear on February 19, 2004 03:05 PM

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I don't think anyone can blame Bush for creating a recession, that's just silly. And I don't think anyone has. It's his response to the recession that most people have bitched about.

Posted by: Kelly on February 19, 2004 03:07 PM

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The exact date of the beginning of the recession is irrelevant. Only a few maniac day traders and new-grwoth-era technofanatics thought the business cycle had been repealed.

Remember the breathless announcements from the admin in 2001Q2-Q3 that it was the mildest recession on record? But they wouldn't listen to mainstream economists who pointed out that if they implemented their foolish policies, the recovery would be even milder. So, in fact, the recovery has been even more extraordinarily mild than the initial recession.

So the real problem is the astonishling mild recovery, not the date that the recession started. I suppose Prof D is just keeping track of the panic and mendacity and pointless gaming for the sake of the historical record.

Posted by: jml on February 19, 2004 03:08 PM

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>

It is?!! These people are well known for having no idea of the consequences of their actions - how many citations do you need? The live in a bubble world (pun intended) and Devil Take the Hindmost is their motto.

Posted by: fatbear on February 19, 2004 03:09 PM

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And many economic indicators anticipate. Notice what happened to military contractor stocks the once Scalia crowned Bush. They knew there would be war, just not who we'd attack.

Posted by: covington on February 19, 2004 03:10 PM

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Oops again = my "It is?!!" response was to Kelly's denial of Bush responsibility for the recession.

Posted by: fatbear on February 19, 2004 03:11 PM

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Reminds you of the guy who went to school to learn about hammers and when he got out every problem looked like a nail.

Need to increase savings: Tax Cuts.
Need to fix the recessesion: Tax Cuts.
Trade Deficit: Tax Cuts.

Sounds like they just have one page in the economic policy book.

Posted by: ChrisA on February 19, 2004 03:23 PM

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Reminds you of the guy who went to school to learn about hammers and when he got out every problem looked like a nail.

Need to increase savings: Tax Cuts.
Need to fix the recessesion: Tax Cuts.
Trade Deficit: Tax Cuts.

Sounds like they just have one page in the economic policy book.

Posted by: ChrisA on February 19, 2004 03:23 PM

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FCOL, people, can we not waste electrons arguing about "whose fault" the recession was? This is macro; as the old saying goes, just get the SIGN right.

Specific statistics, OTOH, are a much more precise matter. I don't understand why the WH keeps telling these little fibs, which accomplish nothing except to undermine their credibility.

Posted by: bleh on February 19, 2004 03:23 PM

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No, Kelly is quite right: Bush didn't cause the recession. I've always hated this kind of economic spin by both parties. I think we would have had a boom without Clinton, though I don't think it would have been as big, for various reasons. Similarly, as has been said, we'd of still had this recession without Bush, but he made it an the recovery worse than it had to be. But he and his supporters just take it on faith that he made it much better than it would have been otherwise. The "it would have been really, really bad under Gore" meme is well-established. Although, I hope, Bush is steadily losing credibility with even the people that don't know any better and are his natural supporters. Because, as is said here all the time, the job situation is not good. It absolutely amazes me that the people in this administration thought they could be insulated from that politically inconvenient reality. Some things are harder to spin than others. People know whether they have jobs or not.

Posted by: Keith M Ellis on February 19, 2004 03:29 PM

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> We were slowing all through 2000.

And slowing was good and appropriate in 2000, given a lot of the stupid ways money was spent in the late '90s. The problem is that whereas Clinton mostly left the economy to the pros, W insisted on monkeying with things himself, without anything better to offer than a pointless fiscal hemorrhage.

tbrosz: If the Q3 '01 GDP hadn't been lower than the Q2, by definition it would not have been a recession. So, in effect, what you're asking is whether the end-of-September-'01 GDP numbers would have been what they were had Gore been inaugurated rather than Bush.

That question is much broader than simple fiscal policy, and I for one am very tempted to believe that things would have been different.

Posted by: xfrosch on February 19, 2004 03:29 PM

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The silly thing is, there is no Platonic form for a recession, as far as I can tell. It is not a thing or an event. It is a label slapped on a period of time by the NBER that ends up imposing grey bars on charts of economic and financial data. Quibbling over where to put the latest little grey bar is pathetic. What's the point? Does today's slack labor market depend in some way on the exactly where the latest little grey bar goes?

The statement that "the economy was weakening" during a particular period is pretty vague, as likely to obscure as to illuminate - probably the point. Is rising output (even if rising less than 2% per year) "weakening"? Well, that depends on how one wants to spin it. If we were to do what our high school writing instructors asked - ya know, clarity, precision, that sort of thing - then we would say things like "real output grew at a slower pace" or "real output declined". Problem is, "real output grew at a slower pace" is an admission of growth, which is what happened pretty much till Bush took office. Jiggering the claimed timing of recession seems like another "you can fool some of the people all of the time" effort, just like the jobs forecast, the all-purpose tax cut, the "everybody agreed" claim about pre-war assessments of Iraq, the dental records, the behind-closed-doors energy plan...

Posted by: K Harris on February 19, 2004 03:31 PM

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"GDP 2000Q4: 9,887.7. GDP 2001Q1: 9,882.2."

I dunno how things are running over in the USA, but here in Germany the final 3 months of every year are the most important for nearly every branch of trade... (you know: X-mas, X-Mas bonus etc.). A bad year often can be saved by extremely good November/December sales figures.

So if GDP in the first quarter of 2001 only is 2 million $ less then in the final quarter of 2000 it seems rather sensational good (or am I missing something?)

Posted by: lost_horizon on February 19, 2004 04:01 PM

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ooops: it's obviously 5.5 million $ less, not 2 million $.

Posted by: lost_horizon on February 19, 2004 04:03 PM

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The fact that 4th q 2000 GDP was higher than 1st q 2001 GDPdoes not mean that the GDP peak was in 2000 as demonstrated by the monthly data. McClellan's claim is like H Hoover saying that GDP peaked in the second Coolidge administration because average GDP was higher under Coolidge II
Than Hoover.

Sure it isn't important exactly when the GDP peaked. I agree that it is very hard to blame Bush for the recessin and I think Brad does too. However, making a claim of fact which is both irrelevant and false is not OK. Facts must be respected not because every single fact is important, but because rational discussion is impossible if people are allowed to ignore reality.

Posted by: Robert Waldmann on February 19, 2004 04:07 PM

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I'm not educated on economics, but I'm wondering why Greenspan's name isn't mentioned more often when people talk about
the 2001 recession. From what I've read, he raised interest rates six times from June 1999 to May 2000, then lowered them 13 times over the next year or so.

I interpret his actions to mean he mighta overdid it on the raises. Are there economists who blaime the Fed for the 2001 recession?

http://www.ocnus.net/cgi-bin/exec/view.cgi?archive=39&num=9954

Posted by: Odin on February 19, 2004 04:14 PM

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It is kind of ludicrous to argue that (a) the recession would have happened no matter who took office...and then follow it up by (b) trying to back date the event to a previous president's term. If (a) why (b)? They should argue then that the recession happened on our watch...but there was little we could do about it. But that is not the argument being espoused by the POTUS.

I know this is a ludicrous extension of the argument, but I am not going to let that stop me either. That disaster in September 2000 sure sent our economy in a tailspin, didn't it. After all, the terrorists did all their planning during Clinton's watch, so we might as well blame him for it. (Hey, that sounds very much like an argument that I have actually heard!)

Posted by: Sam Jackson on February 19, 2004 04:18 PM

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I dunno. Were any of you guuys there? Do you REMEMBER that the Fed started raising interest rates to counter (read: choke off) what Greenspan termed our "irrational exuberance?" Do you remember that they raised the prime rate something like five or six times between 1999 and 2001 (haven't looked it up for a while)?

I remember ranting to myself that he was going to kill the great growth cycle we were in, and sure enough, he did. Don't blame Clinton.

Posted by: Curtis Daddy Love on February 19, 2004 04:19 PM

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Everyone seems to think that the economy was a straight line up as soon as Clinton got in office. there were a few points in the Clinton Administration when the economy could have slipped into recession. Doesn't anyone remember the term "soft landing"?

I recall right after the selection in december 2001 when Cheney and Bush were all over tv talking down the economy. They wanted a slow down to justify their first tax cut.

Regardless of when it started the fact is that Bush administration has been the worse stewards of our economy since Hoover.

Posted by: smartone on February 19, 2004 04:32 PM

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The point has been pushed that people don't make recessions - not so. You have to be totally blinded by Efficient Market mumbo-jumbo to accept that - people make decisions based on the available information SHADED by their emotions. And having this UberMensch from Texas, a supposed success as a businessman, advised by the likes of Lindsey, etc., beloved of Greenspan - having him tell one that the economy was tanking HAD to have an effect on the thoughts of the hoi polloi - I know of at least 4 people who held back on expansion because "it was on the wind" that a recession was coming. Well, who started that rumor on the wind?

Posted by: fatbear on February 19, 2004 04:33 PM

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If Scott could read,he wouldn't have that job!

Posted by: Palolo lolo on February 19, 2004 06:06 PM

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I see, following up to my previous post, that between the time the 2004 ERP went to press and October 21, 2003, NBER reconfirmed March 2001 as the start of the recession.

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

It would be Really Catty to note that NBER's announcement likely preceeded the final confirmation of the 2004 ERP. So I won't.

Posted by: Ken Houghton on February 19, 2004 06:07 PM

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Bush did not cause the recession. Greenspan and the Fed caused the recession by jacking interest rates at a time when the fiscal side was collecting over 20% of GDP as revenue. The Fed raised rates by too much and held them high for too long. They burst the dot.com bubble, but at the expense of other sectors of the economy. Since the recession, the Fed has done its part to stimulate the economy and the economy has expanded since 2001.

Two other things have not happened. Jobs have not recovered and Federal Revenues are the lowest since WWII. These are both the fault of Mr. Bush who has done nothing to stimulate jobs, preferring instead to loot the treasury and pay back his wealthy campaign contributors. It is just plain wrong to blame the deficit on recession as Mr. Bush does. The economic expansion over the last 10 years has been very good. To base revenue collection on projections of economic growth that are too high to be sustainable is foolish. Mr. Bush is a bad fiscal manager.

Posted by: bakho on February 19, 2004 06:34 PM

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As others have posted, the deficit is much larger than what is needed to support a reasonable jobs program. That is the result when practical consensus minded politicians are replaced by ideologues.

Posted by: bakho on February 19, 2004 06:42 PM

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Even the casual observer knows that the economy was on its way down as Clinton was leaving office.

I can gladly produce my successful stock sells and and unfortunately the loses in late 2000 to validate this.

To argue that Bush didn't inherit an economy going down the tubes is just ignorant.

I hate to be so blunt but after 3 years of listening to this crap, I have to vent a little.

Posted by: OdysseusInRTP on February 19, 2004 07:00 PM

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OdysseusInRTP

A coupla things. You say --

"To argue that Bush didn't inherit an economy going down the tubes is just ignorant."

Recessions are measured from peak to trough. The NBER (the official arbiter of when recessions begin and end) have thus far said March of 2001 was the peak. If you think the economy was on its way down, I suggest you take it up with them.

"I hate to be so blunt but after 3 years of listening to this crap, I have to vent a little"

After 3 years of listening to the Bush administration's crap, blunt honesty is refreshing.

Posted by: Odin on February 19, 2004 07:14 PM

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I recall that the debate about both the recession and aftermath of 9/11. At the time we had trouble noticing it.
And the discussion was are we, or are we not, in a recession. Much different with previous recessions. You pretty much knew it before the figures came out.
The consensus then, was that this was going to be a shallow dip followed by a rebound. We would not have really noticed one of the shallowest recessions in history had not this administration behaved so foolishly. Both the economic and political side worked together.
1) Deficits were created that actually had very little stimulative effect.
2) The year long run up to the Iraq war created massive uncertainty and not only depressed the economy but tyhe stock market and kept gas prices high.
3) Steel tariffs, other protectionist measures
4) Weakening dollar
5)Faith based research
6) The most recent budget and state of the union speech.

One could go on, but it was not that this administration inherited a "bad economy," it inherited an economy going through a mild blip and has turned it into a bad economy. To give an example Clinton really did inherit a bad economy and a bad overall hand but he played it well (brilliantly). Bush on the other hand inherited a fundamentally sound economy and has played every single card in the worst possible way. That is the problem.

Posted by: Lawrence Boyd on February 19, 2004 07:20 PM

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I agree with L. Boyd.

The current admin has paid much more attention to spin than sound policy from the very first day in office. As mentioned here several times, it started with the relentless downward jawboning in order to establish that a downturn was expected and wouldn't really be GWB's fault. And then breathless talk of how mild it all was anyway.

The real problem isn't the exact date the thing started, or how mild it was or wasn't to begin with, nor nothing else. It is the lack of a decent balanced recovery. A link to a study cited in a previous post (which I guess I need to look for) is consistent with this -from job destructin and creation stats, a pictur emerges of a mild recession in terms of structural or cyclical job destruction, and not so mild one in terms of lack of economic growth and especially job creation.

So I guess the current admin is looking for an excuse. So we cannot let people forget the history of the thing. This business about the ERP shows that they are getting panicky. GWB is probably not responsible for the fact that a recession started near the beginning of his term (though he may have affected the timing a little) but sooner or latter he has to take responsibility for the fact that his policies have produced the worst postwar recovery on record.

Posted by: jml on February 19, 2004 08:06 PM

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Don't confuse "peaked" with "high point".

Posted by: AK on February 19, 2004 08:12 PM

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Has the NBER said that it is definitely sticking with March 2001? I heard from a member of the committee that they were pretty likely to move the date back. That was a month or so ago.

Posted by: pi on February 19, 2004 08:31 PM

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* How the fact that GDP numbers turned down in the first quarter of the Bush 2 Presidency is consistent with McClellan's "we inherited it" claim is beyond me. The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee (the group that makes the call on this issue) is clearly on the record that the recession started in March 2001 and ended in November 2001. *
~~~

Well, if they were *so* clearly on the record about it they wouldn't have said publicly, as they have, that they are considering moving the starting date of the recession back into 2000.

They noticed that the revised GDP numbers show a decline in 3rd quarter 2000.

"The revisions in the data would seem to indicate at least a serious reconsideration is in order," said Robert Hall, chairman of the [dating] committee and a professor at Stanford University, in an interview. "We are not stubborn about what happens when the numbers are revised."
http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aftiK8CHFmeQ&refer=us

None of the mavens here noticed that? Or think it's relevant enough for a mention?

I'm shocked! shocked! ;-)

BTW, does anybody here really and truly believe that one whole month of Al Gore in office would have kept the economy from falling after Feb. 2001 as it did? (In spite of the stock market bubble having already burst in the prior year, corporate profits having fallen since 1999, etc.)

If not, then the whole "did *not* inherit the recession, nah!" argument is just another example of the silliness that election season brings out in so many otherwise (usually) reasonable people.

Posted by: Jim Glass on February 19, 2004 08:50 PM

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Odin,

In the real world, where my money exists the economy was undoubtly having problems before Bush even got into office.

Posted by: OdysseusInRTP on February 19, 2004 09:09 PM

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This seems like an argument about nothing. It's pretty accepted by most economists that the recession was in motion (that is, to come) when Bush entered office. That doesn't mean it's anyone's fault.

Since Bush inherited the post-Boom New Economy, his job was to help navigate the nation through it. Some tax cuts may have been acceptable, but with the nature of the global market the way it is, and pressures to go in the direction of freer trade, targeted tax cuts accompanied by aggressive job creation measures would have been most wise.

After 9/11, and with the discovery of the vulnerability of the homeland, the ideal conditions were created to do the wise thing. A "Marshall Plan" of sorts for America, to not only secure the homeland but renew our ailing infrastructure, could have been enjoined and everyone would have chipped with high spirits and genuine need.

Instead, we pursued a specious plan to invade Iraq, and gave most of the tax cuts to the rich who are not willy nilly necessarily going to invest it back into America, but perhaps follow the piper of some foreign investments.

Here is where Bush failed America, and Americans, the most. The momentum we had to transform America and the world after 9/11 was unprecedented, and he not only ruined that spirit abroad but presided at home over the greatest divisiveness I've ever lived through, not to mention the worst economic times, especially in terms of jobs and middle/lower classes, ever.

This was topped off by the Republican-led Congress refusing to extend unemployment benefits during the Christmas season even though all numbers show that there are no net new jobs out there. What the hell are people supposed to do? Who's going to hire them? Should they move to India (sorry, not an option anyway)?

The final indignity was the numbers that showed overall merchandise sales down during the holidays except for a tremendous upsurge in the numbers for luxury goods.

I deem this a failure of both judgement and leadership.

Posted by: jimm on February 19, 2004 09:33 PM

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Next!

Posted by: jimm on February 19, 2004 09:35 PM

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Yes, I've been tracking NBERs considerations; that they reaffirmed themselves in late October of 2003 (I posted the link above; just in case: http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html) indicates to me that they don't plan to change for economic reasons.

Of course, if you want to argue that the Bush people KNEW they were "taking on a recession" and STILL pushed tax cuts as a way to "give back the surplus," you're welcome to.

I do note, however, that the 2004 ERP claims that the weak job growth of Jan-Feb 2001 (they don't show the specific numbers to support their claim on p. 31 that NFP "peaked in Feb 2001) is indicative of a recession.

The weak growth (judging from their text) is around 50-60K jobs a month.

The current growth being trumpeted? Well, let's check: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2004/02/20040218-2.html

President Bush: "I'm pleased by the fact that since August there's been 366,000 new jobs, in one survey."

August-January is five months, while February (or including August as a month) would be six. So that's...50-60K jobs a month.

I should be pleased now, but consider the same absolute growth three years ago (in a smaller economy) to have been a sign of recession?

Posted by: Ken Houghton on February 19, 2004 09:40 PM

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If we ever get to the point in this country where President's can cause or cure recessions I'm moving to Canada (whoops bad choice), or China or anyplace that is still capitalist. The S+P 500 was down by almost 20% from it's peak when Bush took office. It wasn't his fault or Clinton's. If you want to blame one person blame Greenspan for gooseing the money supply in late '98 in response to um, I don't know what, this is what CNN said at the time: 'Federal Reserve governors cited "unsettled conditions" in global financial markets. The move followed an initial round of rate cuts on Sept. 29, amid fears that corporate earnings were on the brink of collapse, and Latin America was about to take a cue from Russia and default on its debt.' http://money.cnn.com/1998/11/17/economy/fed/

This was almost two years of "irrational exuberance" after Greenspan's "irrational exuberance" speech in '96. It was in hindsight exactly the wrong thing to do for the domestic economy. Who knows maybe it prevented a bigger international meltdown. But the recession was pretty mild following the pattern of the last one in the early 90's. It all could have been a hell of a lot worse. People get colds, economies get recession. I think recessions are a side effect of the sustained growth this economy exhibits over time. Without the one, I don't think you would have the other, and I think the only alternative would be European style endemic recessions.

Posted by: Kozinski on February 19, 2004 10:33 PM

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Does anyone else remember the episode of The West Wing where CJ had the dental emergency and Josh Lyman stepped in to "handle" the daily briefing?

I swear to God, that's what every Scott McClellan daily briefing reads like these days.

Posted by: Ray Radlein on February 19, 2004 10:36 PM

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Slightly off-topic:
Can anyone find some empirical data to find out what the "Wealthy" are doing/will do with their extra money as a result of the two rounds of W's tax cuts?I don't imagine a lot of it was returned to the mainstream economy via added jobs... We could ask a random
sample of "millionaires" this question...

Posted by: DK2 on February 19, 2004 11:35 PM

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rvman: It isn't like Bush did something in his first 4 weeks in office which triggered the recession, it just doesn't work that way.

I guess it's just dropped down the memory hole, but don't you remember Bush and Cheney trash-talking the economy in early 2001? The "we're going into a recession, Recession, RECESSION! Quick, pass our tax cuts!" It was extremely irresponsible and unlike any previous administration.

If you don't think such statements can have an economic effict, just look at what happened to exchange rates when O'Niell started jabbering about the dollar "could go lower".

Would it be okay if Greenspan got up and said "well, the banks *might* have enough money for depositers?"

Posted by: Satan luvvs Repugs on February 20, 2004 07:32 AM

____

Trust these people?
I define a LIE--An Intent To Deceive--not all are. many are. you decide
clarence swinney burlington nc----------------------- BUSH & STAFF LIES -----------------------
1. I passed a Patients Bill Of Rights as Governor.
2. I am a "Reformer with Results".
3. I am a "Compassionate Conservative".
4. Action Administration.
5. The claim that "Al Gore lied re: his role in creating the Internet".
6. The claim that "Al Gore lied re: his role in Love Canal".
7. The claim that "Al Gore lied re: The Love Story movie".
8. The claim that "Al Gore lied re: his role on Farm Work".
9. Open Administration.
10. I will protect the environment.
11. I will retain regulations on CO2.
12. Dad and I will be first two Environmental presidents.
13. I will increase funding for libraries.
14. I will Leave No Child behind. (Just the funding for their programs).
15. I will be the Education President.
16. I will restore Honor-Dignity-Integrity to the White House.
17. I will continue to balance the budget.
18. I will put Social Security in a Lock Box.
19. I will increase the Pell Grant Maximum Award.
20. My Tax Cuts will not create deficits even in a recession.
21. I will fully fund LIHEAP—low income energy program.
22. I will listen to sound science and “local” officials before deciding on Yucca Mountain.
23. I will make higher education more accessible by helping students with costs.
24. My administration will have transparency.
25. I am the type of person who will not change his mind once he makes it up.
26. I have been to WAR.
27. I will provide 20 Billion for World Trade center.
28. I gave the citizens a Tax Refund. Loan not a refund. Democrats program.
29. Iran and North Korea have been allies against us.
30. Hear me once and hear me clear. Promises made are promises kept.
My Waffle list takes care of this very childish remark.
31. Saddam kicked inspectors out of Iraq. (He ordered USA spies to leave but stated over and over that others could stay.).
32. I knew nothing about a possible WTC type attack. .
33. We warned the FAA, Airlines and Pilots. (Pilots interviewed said they were never warned.).
34. Ashcroft : "We captured a terrorist who was planning to plant dirty bombs".
35. Presidential Air Force 1 plane was under attack.
36. "I saw the first plane hit before I went into the classroom."
37. "I will fully fund Low Income Housing Assistance.
38. "I will provide affordable prescription benefits for ”all” seniors.
39. "I will pay down a record amount of the federal debt.
40. The largest percentage increase in my budget is for education.
41. Education will be my number one priority (—after millionaires).
42. "I do not take cues from anyone. (Except Karl, Karen and Dick).
43. Finding to Congress to slaughter Afghans. Lied by omission. No mention of removal of Taliban.
44. "I will not engage in "Nation Building".
45. "I do not need a Resolution from the UN."
46. Palm Beach County was a Pat Buchanan stronghold.
47. Clinton people did an estimated $200,000 damage to White House.
48. Clinton people robbed Air Force 1.
49. Middle East slaughter is Clinton fault for working too hard for peace.
50. North Korea restarting Nuke Program Clinton fault.
51. We have the strongest Military in history. (He campaigned on it being so weak.).
52. "I will be strict on federal spending." (Except for millionaires in weapons manufacturing).
53. Alabama Duty—I was there on a temporary assignment and fulfilled my weekends.
54. Dan Bartlett—Bush spokesman : "He pulled his drills in Alabama". (Since he wasn’t flying he was doing odds and ends under different supervisors whose names he cannot recall, which may well explain why they can’t remember him either).
55. "I was no longer flying F-102 jets because they were being replaced by a different fighter."
56. Aide : "He did not take a physical because his physician was in Houston and he was in Alabama." (Try again. Personal physicians cannot give the examination.).
57. "After I completed flight training in 1970 I kept flying with my unit for the next several years".
58. Cheney lied on Halliburton transactions with Iraq.
59. "Immediately upon taking office I will transfer the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem".
60. "I will Jawbone OPEC to open the wells."
61. "I will have a humble foreign policy. " (What would he consider an arrogant one?)
62. "I will have a bipartisan administration."
63. "Sharon is a Man of Peace."
64. "I looked into Putin’s soul. "
65. Paul O’Neill: "I sold no Alcoa stock when I was CEO". (Try 627,547 shares).
66. "Iraq has a fleet of unmanned planes which could be targeted at the United States".
( It will take 2,000 refuelings to get here, if the duct tape holds up!)
67. "We have proof Al Queda has been involved with Iraq." (But we won't show it to anyone.).
68. Elliott Abrams is a convicted liar. (Right at home with this crowd.)
69. John Poindexter is a convicted liar. (He just cannot remember.)
70. Karl Rove lied on Salvation Army deal.
71. "I will put an end to permanent campaigning." (I will do only six days each week.)
72. "I will not use polls. (Just weekly.)
73. Senator Baucus does not like free trade. He is an isolationist and protectionist.
74. The president did not try to intervene in the GE-Honeywell deal in England.
(Well, maybe a little bit.).
75. Mitch Daniels—biggie on Clinton night deposits.
76. "We will stop attacking Clinton". (when we die, maybe.).
77. U.S. air strikes in Iraq have been routine. (Pentagon disagrees.)
78. "Majority of my tax cuts goes to lower income".
79. "I am matching a trillion tax cut with a trillion cut in spending."
80. Harken Energy sale of sock—records show a deliberate lie.
81. Dropping top rate from 39.6% to 33% will serve as a stimulus to 9.4 million .
small business owners. (Less than 5% of businesses pay top rate now.).
84. "I will provide $100 million to preserve the Rain Forest." ( $ 87 million short. And he earned! a Business Degree form Harvard!).
85. School Choice—In state of Washington he said “I stand behind school choice”.
Next stop was Concord NC. “I want to avoid some of the so called school choice issues .
such as school vouchers, for it would prompt an extended debate in congress”.
86. Iraq is updating their nuclear program for we can tell by them having aluminum pipes.
Experts say you are wrong boy.
87. Cheney:: ”You never save ammunition to use before an election.” Rove and Card said Oh Yes we do.
88. He was inspired by reading the masters. (Well, Not exactly read them. We told him.).
89. "I read the EPA report.(Ari :“He did not”. When Ari contradicts you, it is trouble.).
90. Laura—“The federal records show divorce is down, weddings are up and families are coming together” (Sorry dear, you must have been looking at old records. Federal government no longer maintains such records.).
91. We did not support the Venezuelan coup.
92. Nunn-Lugar.
93. Anwar—only 2,000 acres will be disturbed.
94. Presidential records — hiding them will make them more accessible. (If you say so?!?).
95. Ashcroft - We are able to respond to bio-terrorism attacks. Call 911.
96. Military — Help is on the way.
97. My daughter did not wear kahki’s to meet the Queen. (Just a kahki jacket.).
98. We have definite proof Osama Bin Laden was responsible for 9-11.
99. "I was never arrested.
100. We have an agreement, which will be the largest disposal of nuclear war heads in history.
( Putting 2,200 into storage is not disposing of them in other people's dictionary.).
101.I believe in being held accountable. ( Why then, when we attacked Afghan, did you say “I’m not in charge. The Pentagon is running the war”) .
103. Plants must conform to same environmental standards of regulations as in Texas.
(Voluntary "compliance" isn’t regulations.).
104. My number one priority is Osama Bin Laden- dead or alive. (for the moment).
105. You coal miners will get help from me.
106. "I got affirmative action rules in Texas. (O=Nothing.).
107. Admiral Quidly spokesman for Central Command in Afghan : We hit our targets miles away from homes.” (Not according to eyewitnesses who saw friends homes take direct hits, Red Cross building, Vets hospital, wedding party, etc.).
108.
109. Ashcroft—550 prisoners—“It is against the law to release their names”. (Three days later assistant attorney general Chertoff said “there is no specific law barring disclosure of names”.).
110. Gonzales—Mary Francs Berry said he lied to her over seating a commissioner on her commission.
111. Mitch Daniels - Economic slow down is due to war on terror and not tax cut.
(When he made that statement very little spending was being done to fight terrorism.).
112. Justice Department—Lied on number of arrests and convictions for terrorism. (They loaded the report with garden variety crimes with no connection to terrorism).
113. Justice said man disrupting a flight was a “domestic terrorist”.
(The judge laughed at the charge and called it “ridiculous”. He said it was an obvious case of a man being very upset at his treatment by airlines.).
114. IAEA—Harpers Review—1-14-03—claimed the group had issued a report which did not exist. This boy brain scorched?.
115. We will not become the police of the world. OK! Just judge, jury and executioner.
116. Gale Norton—“Governor Davis had a hand in approving offshore drilling”.
( Governor Davis called him a “Liar”.).
117. Cheney said Tax Cut stimulated savings and investments.
118.AL Q is operating in Kashmir section of Pakistan. ( Strong denial by Pakistan so waffled away saying well we thought they were there. We had a gut feeling.).
119.We should not execute anyone who is mentally retarded. ( He executed two with IQ under 70.).
120.Cheney—In order to meet our future electrical needs we need to build one plant per week. ( A cutback.).
121. "I got the first major energy policy in history. ( Jimmy Carter earned that distinction 25 years ago.).
122. The sleepovers in the Texas State House were only family. (And they gave 2.1 million to your campaign.).
123. "I have been off alcohol since I met Billy Graham. (That video all over the internet showing you stoned at a wedding reception in 1992 was magic?) .
124. Mitch Daniels : "The 2003 budget was built on very conservative and cautious assumptions.".
125. OMB :"appropriations of domestic programs are, or will be, the cause of long term budget problems".
126. OMB : "deficits will drop significantly between 2002 and 2003.".
127. OMB : in it’s mid-year review it claimed that the Senate domestic budget plan would reduce the president’s defense request for the 2003 budget. (The Senate plan included the presidents full request and OMB knew it. ).
128. Padilla—Ashcroft had to reverse his claim of capturing a terrorist who was planning bio-chemical attack on us.
129. Bush claimed Al Q was planning to attack U.S. nuclear plants. (No proof yet. Just spreading fear).
130. Photo-op in Arizona during wildfires. ”We will help”. (Arizona is still waiting.) .
131.Wolfowitz : "We found a terrorist cell in Jacksonville, Florida." (When asked for proof by Jacksonville leaders, they were told it was just my gut feeling.).
132. Photo-op in Oregon at training center. “I will help”. (A week later his budget came out cutting such training programs by 45 million.).
133. Harken Energy---records show blatant lies by George W. Bush.
134. "I will veto bio-terrorism bill; it is too expensive. (Then signed it.).
135. Told state officials it was illegal to place limits on coverage of emergency services for the poor.
(Then, put out a new policy allowing HMO’s to do just that).
136. Said his application to a Prep School was not rejected. (It was. He admitted it later.).
137. Said his 2001 Tax Cut was originally designed (during the height of the Clinton boom) as a stimulus.
138. Dan Bartlett : "“Since he was not flying there was no need for him to take physical”. He was grounded because he refused to take a physical. Quite plain on his record. Snort snort.
139. Campaign official : "There was no special deal for him to get into the National Guard.!.
140. Most small business owners pay income tax at the 39.6% rate. Boy, 5% Is not most.
141. Al Q and Iraq are in cahoots.
142. Lie to democratic caucus.
143. Discovery of cannisters is proof Iraq is not cooperating with the inspectors.
144. "I am a Uniter not a Divider. Sho! Got the world united against us.
145. Ken Lay : "First met him in 1994. Very stupid lie.
146. Ken Lay supported my opponent. Yuk! You are sick to make such blatant misstatements .
147. Am Iraqi agent met with Al Q Mohamed Atta in Prague. Phantom meeting.
148. Condi Rice : "No one ever dreamed of such a thing as a plane being used as a bomb”.
149. Ari : "There will be no social security for young people. Well! I must have been wrong.
150. “I visited the Space Center in Houston while Governor”. No you did not . Why does this BOY say such things?.
151. The recession began before I took office.
152.“You can’t say one thing and do another”. “My tax cut will not cause deficits even in a recession.”.
153. Colin Powell before UN: “The tape clearly establishes a connection between Osama Bin Laden and Hussein, beyond all question.” (The tape when played in it’s entirety told a very different story.)
154. Colin showed a photo which he alleged was a plant producing chemical weapons. Baloney. Old buildings. Small bakery. Thirty reporters went to the site and said “Bunk”. It was on European TV but did you see it on American TV?.
155. Ari said the evidence by the UN inspectors of a missile site which could travel beyond UN limitations was a breach. Iraq said it varied in distance according to payload. Russian authority said it was reported to the UN. The extra distance was minimal. It could go 120 miles which will just about make it a Serious Security Risk for America?.
156. Newsday-2-23-03-Bush and Ari lied whey they said the Blue Chip Forecast showed the economy would grow at 3.3% this year if Bush tax cut is passed. Randall Moore editor of Blue Chip denied the claim. Why do these BOYS keep making such false claims? White House personnel became almost hysterical in trying to spin it.
157. “I support After-School Programs”. In 10-2-03 letter he sent to After School Alliance. Cut the funding by 40% per E.J. Dionne in Washington Post on 3-7-03. Rep. George Miller said “Not unexpected. It was a Clinton Program. There is obviously a search-and-destroy mission against anything that was Clinton”. Nice Christian group?.
158. Reuters-3-7-03-The U.S. and British lied about their proof Iraq imported Uranium. The IAEA concluded it was a false charge. Psychos? .
159. 2-28-03-Speech on Homelnd Secuirty-“I proposed 3.5B for first Responders. He proposed an increase of 1B not 3.5B as he claimed He vetoed 400 Million passed by Congress for First Responders and in 2002 he actually froze money for them.
160. Colin: ”They are hiding banned arms in mobile laboratories”. Outlook India. Com 3-6-03 “Hans Blix stated” No evidence of such activities has been found. He said his inspectors had followed U.S. leads and got nothing”.
161. January 3, 2003 : “My Jobs Program(for rich) will create 2.1 million jobs and the tax cut shave been front loaded to have as much effect in the first year as possible. January 8th-White House document released ahowed that job creation will be about 190,000 in 2003. NY Times Edmund L. Andrews 1-9-03.
162. Ameri-Corps : "Wash. Post Dana Milbank-2-27-03-“During SOUA Bush made it a central part of his “Compassionate Conservative” program and called for it to grow to 75,000 from 50,000. Instead, It is possible enrollment will be 26,000 this year. In December of 2002 Bush said it was “expanding mightily”. The funding will be 64 million short in 2003.”.
163. Salmon Fish Story-Seattle Post Intelligence 1-16-03-Bush said “the salmon runs can be restored without building dams. The man and fish can coexist. Bush is still holding up 4 million to help them coexist.
164. Paul Krugman-NY Times-2-25-03-Presdient Vincente Fox of Mexico felt betrayed by his good buddy Bushlite. Old Bushie (promises made-promises kept) promised to give amnesty to all illegal immigrants from Mexico. Next time Vicente watch who you trust. Be sure they are solid Christians! Remember this is White House overflowing with Dignity and Integrity. Plus convicted criminals.
165. Wash. Post 2-26-03-“I have not made up my mind on war (slaughtering ). John Bolton, Undersecretary of State said “We are going ahead UN or no UN. It is already final? I am a leader? I am in charge? I will make the decision?.
166. Ari said “We know they have it (WMD). A list of 25 sites were quietly provided.” Hans Blix challenged Bush and Powell to put up or shut up” . The info they provided has been junk junk junk said UN Inspectors.
167. Ari “Bush is willing to be patient”. The very next day Bush said “time is running out”. Who is in charge? Do these boys speak to each other?.
am willing to offer them food and energy assistance if they stop their nuke-uler program.” I say what I mean. When my mind is made up it stays made up. Do we have a scorched brain here?.
169. Colin tried to paste a link between Saddam and Al Queda by saying “a sinister nexus between Iraq and the Al Queda net work.” He used as proof a chemical weapons training center in an area controlled by Ansar al-Islam. Reporters visited he area and found no poof.
In fact, the group hates Saddam and Al Queda.
170. 2-3-03 White House Fact Sheet-“The budget would be in double digit deficit if there had never been a tax cut in 2001. The budget returned to deficit because of War, Recession and emergencies associated with the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11”. Whoever wrote the Fact Sheet did not look at Historical tables volume of White house budget. Page 5 read: An economic slowdown began in 2001 and was exacerbated by the terrorists attack of September 11. The “deterioration” in the performance of the economy came together “with income tax relief” provided to help offset the economic slowdown and additional spending in response to the terrorist attacks produced a drop in the surplus to 127.1 billion and a return to deficits in 2002.
171. Bush said only North Korea was to blame for crisis. Colin Powell gave “great credit” to Clinton for freezing NK plutonium enrichment program in the 1994 Framework Then. Wash Post reported a senior Bush administration official suggested the nuclear crisis was the predictable result of a flawed 1994 agreement signed by Clinton with Pyongyang that “frontloaded all the benefits and left the difficult things to the end for the next president (Clinton). Honor,Dignity and Integrity. It got lost somehow.
A great source of Bush lies is Sam Parry article of 11-4-02 in www.consortiumnews.com headed “Bush’s Life of Deception”.
172. The Education as number one priority has slipped through the cracks. The 2004 Budget of Bush eliminated 45 educational programs. A total of 1.6 Billion. Major ones are Comprehensive School Reform ( $ 235 million). Rural Education ( $ 162.5 million). Smaller Learning Communities ( $ 142.2millon). Perkins Loans ( $ 100 million). Regional Educational Laboratories( $ 67.5 million). Leveraging Educational Asst. Partnerships( $ 67 million). Preparing teachers to use technology ( $ 62.5 million). Community Service of expelled students ( $ 50 million). Parental Asst. Info. Centers ( $ 40 million). Physical Education Programs ( $ 50 million). Community Technology Centers( $ 32.5 millon). Fund for the Improvement of Education was cut by( $ 361 million). Source is Report by House Budget Committee (Democratic Caucus-John Spratt Jr.) 2-4-03 : "this c- student a loose in land of learning! .

2. 173. NY Times-3-10-03—Elizsabeth Rumiller-“Antiwar Clerics wonder if Bush hears their call”. Cardinal Pio Laghi a peace emissary sent by the Pope John Paul II to meet with Bush said “he was told he could not talk to reporters in the White House driveway where microphones are routinely set up for visitors to the Oval Office. (Ari Fleischer said it was not true. Cardinal Laghi held a press conference anyway. Will you believe emissary from Pope or Ari?).
174.Harper’s magazine-Weekly Review-3-4-03 : "Bush administration officials hinted Russia might have a hard time collecting it’s Iraqi debts, if it fails to support Bush war plans. (Other security council members were being told they would pay a “heavy price” for refusing to support Bush. Ari said in effect that they were all lying).
175. Consortium News-11-4-02-In the October 11 debate Bush said the Clinton-Gore administration “took 40 million acres of land out of circulation without consulting local officials. He said “I just cited an example of the administration just unilaterally acting without any input.” (The Forest Service conducted 600 public meetings.) (Like Father like son “I will do (or say) anything to win”. GHW Bush in 1992.).
176. Bush said during the debate “Our water in Texas is cleaner now”. The Sierra Club said “The discharge of industrial toxic pollution into surface waters in Texas increased from 23.2 million pounds in 1995 to 25.2 million pounds in 1998 the last year of available data (Bush hiding it?).
177. Bush said: “I do not need polling to tell me what to think”. NBC News 10-6-00 reported Bush spent over one million dollars on polling during his campaign. It was widely reported that during first two years in the White House over one million per year was spent on polling as much as Clinton spent over first two years.
“Who cares what you think”. He must have meant it for all Americans.
Reporter-Writer Sam Parry writes “Bush’s growing record of lies, both big and small, suggest something perhaps more troubling. His personal history of heavy drinking, drug use, carousing, disappearances from military duty, repeated business failures and political hypocrisies -- combined with his ability to avoid ever paying a significant price for his deceptions - have given him a sense of his own infallibility”.
Paul Krugman-NY Times-(on wmnf-fm-tampa 2-26-03)-The Bush administration’s level of irresponsibility and dishonesty is unprecedented”. Amen! .
.
Washington Post Editorial on Bush Tax Cut: ”Mr. Bush must know how phony his “averages” are. Anytime a salesman has to resort to such deceptive tactics, the customer ought to be wary about what is being sold”.
Dennis Hans writes:”I review below 23 “techniques of deception” of Bush and his foreign-policy team.”.
178. Colin before UN: “My colleagues, every statement I make today is backed up by sources, solid sources. These are not assertions. What we are giving you are facts and conclusions based on solid intelligence.” (Powell presented now discredited presentations of bogus tales based on discredited defectors , tortured captives, photos and tape recordings that proved little or nothing. Wild speculation. A “fine British dossier built on plagiarized essays with 12 year old “revelations” and so on.).


conventional weapons. Instead of providing proof Powell produced photos of al-Taji ammunition storage facility. Powell claimed they are a ”signature item” for chemical bunkers. A picture of a truck and a shed by themselves reveal nothing about the content of the adjacent bunker. Swinney note: Reporters visited the site only a couple days later and found a small bakery and dilapidated buildings.
180. Powell used tapes of conversations. (The State Department’s transcript of the actual conversation makes it evident that Powell had embellished the quote to make it appear much more incriminating. Intent to deceive is LYING.).
181. Bush claimed the location of Samoud 2 Missiles was “the Tip of the Iceberg”. (He has produced nothing to back up such a claim. If he has information he is required to notify the inspectors under UN Resolution.) .
182 Powell stated there were labs in remote Kurdistan. (No proof.) .
183. Powell stated there were mobile labs with WMD. (No proof. Hans Blix’s inspectors followed all leads supplied by U.S. Intelligence and some inspectors called US Intelligence information “junk” and kept them on wild goose chases (found two mobile food kitchens). www.accuracy.org has several examples of deception.).
184. Bush said during his speech to UN Security Council on Sept 12 “Iraq has made several attempts to buy high-strength aluminum tubes used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons." In his SOUA on Jan 28 he repeated it.
185. Bush made inference eight times to a tie between Iraq and Al Qaeda in his news conference. By citing 9/11 he tried to alchemize American anger at Al Qaeda into support for smashing Saddam. (No proof of Saddam-Al Qaeda connection.).
186. Bush said location of Samoud2 Missiles was “Tip of Iceberg”. No proof of any iceberg. If he has proof he is in violation of UN Resolution by withholding information from inspectors.
Noted Journalist Sy Hearst-“There is no real standard of integrity because the White House doesn’t have any”.
Paul Krugman-NY Times-America’s leadership has lost touch with reality. The eagerness to believe that an Iraq nuclear program does exist has led to a series of embarrassing debacles capped by the forged Niger papers. It is clear that deposing Saddam has become an obsession.”.
187. -03-13-03--AP-Niko Price-From Al-Taji, Iraq--IRAQ DRONE. Iraqi officials took journalists to the Ibn Firna State Company just north of Baghdad where the drone’s project director said Colin Powell and Bush lied. The Drone was made of Balsa wood with two small propellers attached to what looks like the engine of a weed whacker.
188. Bush II Shootout at OK Corral speech : "“Every measure was taken to avoid war”—words will live in infamy. One analyst revealed 21 lies Bush spoke in his “24 hour to leave Dodge” speech. 189. David Ensor-CNN Wash. Bureau-3-14-03-Powell referred to proof of Iraq attempting to buy uranium in his UN presentation.(Totally false. Fake documents.).
190. Wash Post-3-21-03-Glenn Kessler : "“It’s a bald face lie to claim the “coalition” is greater than the one on 1991” per Ivo H. Daalder of Brookings Institute.( The comparison is not even close.).

191. Ari said several times ”Iraq is a wealthy nation”. Los Angeles Times Warren Vieth artivcle 4-3-03-- (The Iraq balance sheet is a Basket case. Financial shambles. Debt load. Cash flow low. Shaky currency.High unemployment. Sounds like George Bush has been in charge for past ten years!).
192.The Strait Times(Singapore) listed by Common Dreams.org on 10-28-03— Malasian Prime Minister Mohamad said President Bush ”lied” when he said “I pulled him aside at the Bangkok Summit and rebuked him for his anti-Semitic remarks”. Now. Which would you believe
193.Condi Rice and others said the administration never said ”imminent threat.--”May 7th 2003—Ari Fleischer said “absolutely” when he was asked “didn’t we go to war because we said WMD were a direct and imminent threat?” www.The DailyMislead.org
194.Bush claimed UN Inspectors were not allowed into Iraq before his slaughter. The UN weapons Inspectors were forced to leave when Bush began his slaughter. This lie was unbelievable. Does he know anything?


Posted by: clarence swinney on February 20, 2004 09:02 AM

____

Like Waffles?Biggies served BUSH WAFFLE HOUSE
“I say what I mean and mean what I say”
“ Promises made-Promises kept”
“When I make up my mind it stays made up”
“I do not take cues from anyone”
“You can’t say one thing and do another”
“Trust me I’m a straight shooter”
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.Osama Bin Laden is my number one priority. (at least this week)
2. We need an Office of Strategic Influence (Next decade maybe)
3. I will follow the UN Resolution as long as it takes-10-27-02
10-31-02—The UN needs to act now
2-13-03—The UN needs to show courage (like I did during Vietnam.)
4. I am a strong believer in Fair Trade—(except steel and softwood lumber) (votes first)

Ed Crane—Co-Founder and President of The Cato Institute-“Everything this
administration does is political”

5, We do not need for the Homeland Security Department to be a Cabinet position.
I made up my mind on it. Boston Globe—6-9-02 “Bush Flip Flop”
6. I will get Osama Bin Laden “Dead or Alive”—(go get em cowboy)—5-13-02-(“I don’t know where he is, I have no idea and I really don’t care.) (It’s not that important. It’s not out first priority”) (“I say what I mean”). (“When I make up my mind it stays made up”).
7. I will use the bully pulpit with OPEC. (Sic em bulldog my gas now 1.65 per gallon)
Supply went down and Prices went up and (“This is just the Free Market at Work”)
8. I will never apologize to the Chinese for “stealing our plane”. Please guys! Be nice.
Return our plane. “I regret it”
9. I mean what I say—“We can expect an attack”. Each month warning. When BOY?
10. Wash. Post-2-8-03—Bush seeking a promise from IRAN (Evil) for humanitarian help
in event a slaughter is done in Afghan. (Sounds like Reagan?)
11. NYT-1-23-03—Bush (Man of steel will) “rescinding” old policy and implementing a new policy that allows managed care organizations to limit and restrict coverage of emergency services for poor people on Medicaid. This was after criticizing HMO.s for refusal to allow treatment. If this is a Devout Christian I am Jesus Christ.
12. We will not negotiate with North Korea. Wash Post 1-16-03—Bush is now willing to consider agricultural and energy aid. (Hold on! This is EVIL of axis)
13.Individual investors who borrow money to buy dividend paying stocks should be penalized.(Gosh! What did I say—I did not mean it) NYT 2-5-03
14. I mean what I say until yelling starts. Military pay increase of 2% then 4%.
Stars & Stripes-12-30-02—Bush asked Defense Dept. to lower the announced pay raise for the military from 3.7% to 2%. Finally got 4 in 2004 budget.

“I am tired of all the Lying and Deception”—Amen! Hallelulah! Then stop it Boy.


15.I mean what I say—I am the education president. Please. First budget increased by 1,5% which had averaged 7% increase per year over five years. (Sounds like Clinton was the Educated educator to me.)
16.Wash Post-12-2-02—In June 2002 Bush promised 500 Million to fight mother-child transmission of Aids . In Aug he vetoed the first transfer of the 500 million. In 111 days since his promise 222,000 babies have been infected with Aids. (I wonder if Jesus Christ is tossing in his bed)

17.“Secretary O’Neill is doing a good job. The economy is improving. I have faith in him”. (your faith lasts two weeks boy)

18.The Homeland Security Bio-Terrorism Bill is too expensive. I will veto it. An Ok is not a veto boy.
(I mean what I say” but maybe I will not this time.)

19. I do not approve of an Independent Investigation of 9-11. (“I mean what I say” but—yelling is too loud).

20.I am against international money laundering controls. (9-11—“I changed my steel mind”) They may catch daddy.

21.We will have major social security changes. Wash Post. 11-11-01—Andrew Card on Meet the Press on 11-10-02 “I am not sure we will reform it” This was a Centerpiece of his campaign..

22.-12-30-02—We will not tolerate a North Korean nuclear arsenal. (Act nice guys if you want our $$$)

23.We do not hit civilian targets(in Afghan). There is no evidence. (Red Cross building not civilian—Veterans Hospital is military—Warlord Party heading to Kabul to celebrate was armed with .22 rifles—Wedding Party was violent and firing in the air at our planes 20,000 feet above them)

24.Wash Posr-11-15-02—“If you are not happy with the administration’s policy toward Iraq at any given moment just wait a week or two. A new policy, more your liking, is bound to appear”.

A. Go it alone week
B. Let us wait for UN week
C. “regime change” is goal
D. remove wmd is goal
E. Secretary of State is nor speaking for the president
F. Attorney General is not speaking for the administration.
G. I am sick and tired of this waffling and waiting.


25.Steel Tariff—I really did not mean that much. I angered some people. Reduce it.
(When I make up my mind it stays made up)
26.Carbon Dioxide is a power plant pollutant I will control.. (Oh! It will be too costly to my energy contributors so forget it suckers—cough cough)
27.Reuters-6-26-02—‘I have confidence in the Palestinians when they understand we are saying they must make the right decisions”—“I can assure you we will not be putting money into a society which is not transparent and which is corrupt”.
(Was he referring to his administration? Sounds like it—transparent—corrupt)

28.I am against human cloning in any form. (well, not quite “any”)
29.“I knew nothing about dangers of 9-11”. Eight months later. “I knew a damn bunch (but I was too busy on Vacation and looking for more to blame on that President who stomped my dad. Darn it is tough being dumb, inarticulate and following such a brain and great success)
30.“I am in excellent physical condition.” (Darn, staying up till midnight in Paris zapped all my energy—Boy—try conditioning your mind))
31.I am on top of everything. (Why did you say twice on TV—“I am not in control the Pentagon is running the War (Afghan)—You have a White House base—same as Al Qaeda. Only more secretive)
32.I will veto bill increasing benefits for disabled military retirees (Yep!He was war hero.. 6-20-02 in Wash Post. I do not change my mind. Until 2004 Budget).
33.-6-14-02—released 23,653 of ”cherry picked” Reagan papers after refusing to do it. “When I make up my mind it stays made up” Is this BOY real ?”
34.I mean what I say—‘I will provide 100 million to help preserve the Rain Forest”
35.Budgeted funds for his dad’s Crusader cannon then demanded that Congress kill the big sucker.
36. Airline Security is very important to me. Then, why did you fight so hard to keep guns out of cockpits?
37.Barred part-time Mexican and Canadian students from U.S. schools after 9-11. Then, after howls reversed his decision. “When I make up my mind”
38.Simon (candidate for Gov. of California). “He is a breath of fresh air.”
Bush sho hated that California Smog for he avoided Simon while in his presence.
39.“I will not engage in bailing out countries.” 30 billion to Brazil just a tip?
40.NY Times-Richard Stevenson-2-14-03—“Bush eases Ban on AIDS money to pro-abortion groups abroad.. What will he tell Falwell?
41.-March 6—“We will call for a UN Security Council vote.” Geo. Bush
March 13—“There may be no vote” Colin Powell
NY TIMES-“Bush promises to adopt peace plan”. The Guardian-“Bush reversed his previous insistence that the Middle East Peace effort must wait till after Iraq SLAUGHTERAMA
42.NY TIMES--Edmund L. Andrwews-2-26-03—Less than a month after President Bush proposed a radical overhaul and expansion of individual retirement and savings account the White House has abandoned their idea. (“When I make up my mind it stays made up”) (“Promises made promises kept”) (“I say what I mean and mean what I say”)
-------------WHO IN HECK IS IN CHARGE IN THIS WAFFLE HOUSE?------------

43. ny times-patrick e. tyler-5-17-03—“In reversal, plan for Iraqi self rule by June 1 put off indefinitely. “When I make up my mind(scorched?) it stays made up”? Sho!
44.BIG WAFFLE—Washington Post-8-19-03-Dana Milbank & Bradley Graham—
“Bush revises view on combat in Iraq”.---May I on USS Desertion he said-- “Combat Operations are over”.. Now—“Actually, Major military operations continue because we still have combat operations going on”. Is this boy of scorched brain or what?
45. TEACH FOR AMERICA PROGRAM ZAPPED BY BUSH. I am pissed off. Big time. In 2000 campaign Bush promised President Wendy Koop to expand it. His aides asked President Wendy Koop to quadruple it. . On July 11,2003 she got a letter “We regret to inform you your application was not selected for funding”. Gone. Zapped totally. Bush is one of sorriest not just worst in history. Read TIME—8-17-03. Joe Klein article headed “WHO KILLED TEACH FOR AMERICA”? Sorry, but I am so furious I have difficulty writing. I do not like to curse but xxxxxxx.


at Bush Waffle House

Posted by: clarence swinney on February 20, 2004 09:04 AM

____

Nov election a contest between

-----SILVER STAR AND TEXAS SOUFFLE-------

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Posted by: clarence swinney on February 20, 2004 09:07 AM

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There was an article about this in businessweek where even the financial statistitions (sp) thought it farcial trying to blame it on Clinton.

Heres the link:
http://www.businessweek.com/@@ETxUWYUQohtoPxUA/magazine/content/04_08/b3871044.htm

Posted by: Neutral Person on February 20, 2004 03:49 PM

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Well, that same Business Week article also says it's farcial to blame recession on Bush:

"To be fair, even if the latest recession did begin after Bush took office in January, 2001, no one can say he caused it."

To be fair, no one? That writer didn't see this stack of comments coming! ;-)

But anyhow, there's the answer, nobody's to blame for the recession. Which really seems the closest thing to the truth.

(Unless, like Stiglitz, one believes the regulators of the Clinton regime really let the bulls run wild and the bubbles percolate madly during those boom years when all that Wordlcom-type stuff was happening, with the price to be paid later).

So, nobody's to blame for it. Somebody who wasn't to blame just had to have it happen and take the blame, that's all.

Posted by: Jim Glass on February 20, 2004 11:20 PM

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Can anyone find some empirical data to find out what the "Wealthy" are doing/will do with their extra money as a result of the two rounds of W's tax cuts?
~~~

Well, with the S&P 500 still down >25% since from before the tax cuts, it's doubtful that "the wealthy" have any "extra money" at least compared to what they had before during the pre-recession Clinton years when everything was rosy.

In fact, when last year's data comes out a year or so from now, I expect to be reading high praise on this site and in Professor Krugman's column of how the "wealth distribution gap" has closed significantly during the Bush years, after growing rapidly through eight straight Clinton years to reach an historic level of unprecedented disparity.

Wait and see!


Posted by: Jim Glass on February 20, 2004 11:38 PM

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cs, can I borrow one of your secretaries?

Posted by: calmo on February 22, 2004 08:33 PM

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A puzzling foot note. As far as I can tell, the St Louis Fed was dating the recession as beginning in 2000 - as of mid 2002.

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