February 22, 2004

Notes: Interesting Employment Numbers

As measured by the decline in the share of working-age population on the payroll employment rolls, the current employment downturn is more than twice as bad as the recession of the early 1990s. As measured by the decline in the (Household Survey) employment-to-population ratio, it is only 35% worse than the recession of the early 1990s:


Since 1950 there has never been as big a fall in payroll employment as a share of the working age population. Never. Not even in the double-dip 1980-1982 recession.

Posted by DeLong at February 22, 2004 10:04 AM | TrackBack | | Other weblogs commenting on this post
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But, according to Alan Greenspan in today's New York Times, the population estimates are too high. I've often wondered whether extrapolations based on the population growth from 1990 - 2000 were skewed due to the extra effort put into making sure everyone was counted in 2000 (after Congress blocked efforts to adjust the results based on statistical sampling). The article points to a different source of error -- that estimates of illegal immigrants may be too high after 9/11 and the various border clampdowns. In any case, this suggests that the recent points on this curve should be taken with a grain of salt, doesn't it?

Posted by: Kevin Miller on February 22, 2004 10:28 AM

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Brad: It might be helpful to see such figures detrended; the steady increase in the number of women participating in the workforce might make the recent decline look even sharper. On the other hand, the steadily falling retirement age might make the recent decline look less sharp... hmm...

Posted by: Kash on February 22, 2004 10:29 AM

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If I knew how to detrend, I would. There is an argument that the trend employment-to-population ratio peaked in 1997 as female labor force participation reached its steady state level...

Posted by: Brad DeLong on February 22, 2004 10:31 AM

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But then again, The Economist points out that measuring job losses this way seriously exaggerates things. In a "silly" manner, even...

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...jeremiahs point out that a net total of 2.3m jobs have been lost since Mr Bush came to office.

Although this date is often used as the starting-point from which to make a comparison, it is a silly one. In early 2001 the hangover effects from the investment boom of the late 1990s were only starting to be felt. Unemployment, at 4.2%, was unsustainably below the "natural" unemployment rate, consistent with stable inflation, that most economists put at around 5%.

In other words, perhaps two-thirds of those 2.3m jobs were unsustainable "bubble" ones...

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2454530
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Gee, nobody here ever comments on the fallacy of measuring a decline from the peak of an unsustainable bubble high?

BTW, the same story puts a pretty thorough kibosh on the myth being told by all those Democratic politicians -- well, "lie" might be a better word, since they've surely been told by their astute economic advisors that it is not true -- about how the US economy is being damaged by exporting jobs to Japan, no Mexico, no, this time it's China and India.

Isn't it really getting to be about time for this dishonest liberal political deceipt to be publicly corected by some brave truth-telling liberal economists who explain "Why Mankiw is Right" in a prominent newspaper column or some such place? Or perhaps we continue to live in the same old, same old, world where brave truth telling remains a matter of political expediency. So it's left to a British magazine to do it.


Posted by: Jim Glass on February 22, 2004 10:50 AM

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Jim Glass wrote, "Gee, nobody here ever comments on the fallacy of measuring a decline from the peak of an unsustainable bubble high?"

Yes, someone here---me---has essentially commented on that, in another guise:

"It's certainly true that the best way to move people out of poverty is to grow the economy, as Clinton did, but given that the latter part of the Clinton boom stemmed from a bubble that we're still working off, I don't think the Clinton era can be pointed to as a good example in this regard."

http://www.j-bradford-delong.net/cgi-bin/mt_2004/mt-comments.cgi?entry_id=335

Posted by: liberal on February 22, 2004 11:18 AM

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Really really really, there is no, never was, never will be a jobs problem. Duh.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/20/business/20jobs.html

In the New Economics: Fast-Food Factories?
By DAVID CAY JOHNSTON - New York Times

Is cooking a hamburger patty and inserting the meat, lettuce and ketchup inside a bun a manufacturing job, like assembling automobiles?

That question is posed in the new Economic Report of the President, a thick annual compendium of observations and statistics on the health of the United States economy.

The latest edition, sent to Congress last week, questions whether fast-food restaurants should continue to be counted as part of the service sector or should be reclassified as manufacturers. No answers were offered.

In a speech to Washington economists Tuesday, N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, said that properly classifying such workers was "an important consideration" in setting economic policy.

Counting jobs at McDonald's, Burger King and other fast-food enterprises alongside those at industrial companies like General Motors and Eastman Kodak might seem like a stretch, akin to classifying ketchup in school lunches as a vegetable, as was briefly the case in a 1981 federal regulatory proposal....

Posted by: anne on February 22, 2004 11:29 AM

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Apparently, it's a full time job to fiddle with statistics to put a negative cast on an unemployment rate of 5.6 percent. I'll admit this is the most creative one since the "discouraged worker" gambit. The graph sure makes the 1992 dip look ever so much better than the current one.

Of course, the unemployment rate back then peaked at 7.8 percent, and was never below 6 percent from January of 1991 until September of 1994. On the other hand, the peak unemployment rate since January of 2001 was 6.2 percent (last July), and was only higher than 6 percent in five of the months since January of 2001. See? I can sell with statistics too.

Statistics can be found here:

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?ln

A site worth bookmarking if you're going to think about these things.

At some point I expect the steady drop in unemployment rate to flatten out, or even take a small jump. When this happens I expect this currently largely-ignored statistic will once again become a critically important gauge of the economy to the media.

Posted by: tbrosz on February 22, 2004 11:33 AM

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http://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/22/international/asia/22INDI.html

U.S. Payrolls Change Lives in Bangalore
By SARITHA RAI

ANGALORE, India, Feb. 21 — A social revolution is under way in India's numerous back offices and call centers.

Many of the employees are barely in their 20's, and just a year or two ago they were living traditional lives in their parents' homes, often in smaller towns.

Now, caste, religion and other age-old Indian social divisions are being shaken. Empowered by an ample paycheck, often from big American companies like American Express and America Online, some Indian workers are living lavishly on credit cards, and their open-mindedness is breaking conventions about dating.

Foreign companies are rushing to India, lured by its low wages, high technology and good communication networks, and the country's annual surge of 1.5 million English-speaking university graduates.

Roopa Murthy, 24, works at 24/7 Customer, a back-office company that employs 3,000 others like her — well-educated, English-speaking workers from middle-class families. This small army works mostly for American companies and some Canadian and British businesses, selling services for satellite television, handling credit card and insurance inquiries, and selling telephone cards offering online support for technology companies.

Ms. Murthy moved to Bangalore in 2002, with an accounting degree from a women's college. She shunned smoking, drinking and late nights.

Now, she earns $400 a month, a sum several times her father's salary when he retired after decades in government service. She sends part of her earnings home to help out the family. Once shy and introverted, she has changed into a self-assured young woman.

Her newfound confidence, she said, came from dealing with hundreds of strangers around the globe. Her long hair is now cut in a short style similar to the one worn by her idol, the character Dana Scully of the television show "X-Files," whose name she has adopted at her workplace to answer customer inquiries or to market products and services on the telephone. Her daily makeup includes foundation, lipstick, eyeliner and sometimes eye shadow.

The salwar kameez, the loose-fitting Indian dress that was a standard in her wardrobe back home, has given way to Western attire with designer labels. Ms. Murthy, who said she owned one pair of sandals through college, now has Nike and Adidas sneakers and half a dozen other pairs of footwear.

Posted by: anne on February 22, 2004 11:40 AM

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http://www.epinet.org/content.cfm/webfeatures_econindicators_jobspict

Despite recent growth in payrolls, revised numbers released today reveal that the job losses over the recession and ensuing jobless recovery have left us with a significant job deficit. Payrolls remain 2.4 million down from when the recession began in March 2001 and 716,000 lower than when the recovery officially began in November of that year. In every other recovery on record, the recessionary losses had already been recouped by this point in time.

One reason for this remaining jobs problem is the historically slow pace of job growth since payrolls began expanding last September. Since then, the average monthly job gain has been 73,000, compared to 216,000 per month in the comparable point in the previous recovery.

Most of the net job gains last month—76,000—came from the retail trade sector. However, since retailers hired fewer temporary workers over the holiday season, there were fewer layoffs than usual this January. But the BLS bases its assumptions on historical patterns, which likely overestimate retail job growth. Extracting from this seasonal effect, retail employment is up only 9,000 since October.

Additionally, the return of striking workers added 9,000 jobs in warehousing and storage. Thus, outside of retailing, genuine employment gains amounted to 27,000 last month.

The household survey showed very large employment growth last month (496,000), and has consistently outpaced the payroll survey over the recovery, leading some analysts to discount the jobless recovery. However, in a detailed statement released with today's report, the BLS commissioner once again stressed the Bureau's position that the payroll survey offers a more accurate picture of job growth than the household survey. Importantly, as the figure below reveals, both surveys show this recovery to be particularly weak in terms of job growth; in fact, regardless of survey choice, this is the worst jobs recovery on record.

Posted by: anne on February 22, 2004 12:12 PM

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The conservative attack on epistemology continues.....

Posted by: Jason McCullough on February 22, 2004 12:28 PM

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If I might suggest, detrend by correlating against GDP or some other marker of economic cycles (you may also have to shift the data a bit for the best correlation, but that is obvious.

Since the issue appears to have been injected into this thread also, may I repeat my request for a reference to a journal article that quantitatively shows that outcountry outsourcing helps or at least does not harm the economy of the outsourcing country. I would like references to both simple (early) demonstrations of this claim and to ones which use more complex economic models.

Posted by: Eli Rabett on February 22, 2004 12:39 PM

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tbrosz, consistently you seem like an intelligent person lost in a fog of denial.

The unemployment rate is a shoddy indicator, primarily because it has been subject to a variety of redefinitions.

The ratio of employment to employment-age population, on the other hand, is a very clear and straightforward definition, which deserves greater scrutiny.

But since your essential point is that there is no jobs problem, perhaps you might explain why bush said that his tax cuts would create 5.5M jobs in trying to sell them....

Posted by: howard on February 22, 2004 01:25 PM

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Jim Glass: Would you not say that any job is removed because it has become "unsustainable", by definition? In light of that, what was the point you were trying to make? That a "bubble" job doesn't really count, and a recession is really only a return to a conveniently defined "natural" level of employment? The job sure did count for the person who received the paycheck, and showed up and worked every day instead of reading the newspaper on their patio.

It is not like the population does not wish to receive more goods and services that workers could create, but the construction of the monetary system enforces a particular allocation or idling of productive resources. All the people who lost their "bubble" jobs didn't do nothing or something that nobody cares about, but the society in the aggregate either couldn't afford their services anymore, or their employers decided that somebody in Asia could do their jobs more efficiently (thus making them "unsustainable").

Posted by: cm on February 22, 2004 01:37 PM

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tbrosz: re fiddling with unemployment rates

I would submit the first "fiddling" is that the official 5.6% is the U-3 rate, and not the U-6 rate from http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm that also counts discouraged workers (and is somewhere around 11%). I do not understand how you can call reasoning about discouraged workers a "gambit". Apparently you were never in a situation where after a losing a job or after entering the labor market you looked for several months in a row, only to find that there is virtually no job for you, for whatever reason (maybe your region has a structural problem, and there are enough job applicants that are younger, more flexible, can sell themselves better, or whatnot, that compete with you). And neither was I, but I know of enough people of that description.

A while back zizka likened the employment situation in a downturn to the game of musical chairs, an analogy which I find very fitting. Faulting the people who couldn't catch a chair for not having tried hard enough is besides the point.

And asides from all numbers, jobs lost are still jobs lost, no matter what happened 10 years ago.

Posted by: cm on February 22, 2004 01:52 PM

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Since the Reagan incline (from trough to peak, not from Reagan-in to Reagan-out) seems both higher and steeper, what characteristic qualifies the Clinton peak as "bubble" while the Reagan peak is rarely labeled as such? I think we debunked the dot-com argument, because after all their impact on the economy was at any time marginal (and the DJIA did not lose 1/3 of its value based on MSFT and INTC alone, not that these companies are dot-comers). And the idea that peak jobs are "unsustainable" in the long run seems to me an ex-post explanation that applies to all peaks.

Posted by: ogmb on February 22, 2004 02:17 PM

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Brad I would like to see a graph of wage and salary employment from the household survey (household survey employment minus household survey self employment). This would be another visual way of making your point that the recent divergence is not due to self employment.

To me it is interesting because I do not understand the narrowing of the difference in the late 90's. Eyeballing the two posts I see a decline in the gap of 2% of working age population from 5% in 92 to 3 % in 2000. At the same time (last post) self employment seems to have declined by about 1% of employment so about 0.6% of working age population. There is a huge shift in household - payroll survey estimates of payroll employment.

As noted by everyone, the gap has grown part of the way back and is now 4% of working age population.

Now if the country in question were Italy, I would be sure what went on. Loose labor market means employers offer only "underground economy" submerged jobs and do not report the workers to the social security agency. With a tighter job market workers can demand that employers pay FICA. When asked in the household survey, many underground employees report that they are working. This couldn't be relevant to a tax compliant country like the USA could it ?

Well can you think of another explanation ?

Posted by: Robert Waldmann on February 22, 2004 02:23 PM

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"...questions whether fast-food restaurants should continue to be counted as part of the service sector or should be reclassified as manufacturers..."

Fast-food restaurant operations are no different than operaitons of other restaurant types -- materially speaking, of course. And these are service operations, not manufacturing.

However, if one were to define services operations as purely non-material processing operaitons, it might be a different story. But then again, one would still have to differentiate between manufacturing and food service.

Posted by: Bulent on February 22, 2004 03:17 PM

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I think average age to start work is increasing, as it should.

Average age to retire should also be increasing, but it is not -- methinks.

Posted by: Bulent on February 22, 2004 03:19 PM

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OK OK it is easy to think of explanations. Click on the name of the shameless link beggar for a list.

Posted by: robert waldmann on February 22, 2004 03:26 PM

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Maybe we should be thinking / speaking about;

(a) farm sector
(b) material sector (materials processing sectors)
(c) non-material sector (information processing, financial, insurance, education, personal services(?), health care(?)...)

Material sectors would be subdivided into manufactruing, mining/construction/, transportation, energy..

I guess...

The key, it seems, would be to delineate the "non-material" sectors...

Posted by: Bulent on February 22, 2004 03:28 PM

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One characteristic of burger flipping that makes it "service" rather than "manufacturing" is that it has to be provided on demand and on location, and therefore can't be outsourced to India. Once we find a way to pre-cook food and store/ship/preserve it at serving temperature it's perfectly acceptable to classify it as "food manufacturing" and move it to India.

Posted by: ogmb on February 22, 2004 03:29 PM

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Having said that (to Jim Glass and tbrosz), what do all those statistics finally teach us, and how do we explain what is going on?

And what are the underlying reasons for the 2000 boom and the current bust? What drove the large increase in employment around 2000? Was it easy money, the Y2K fearmongering, the "irrational" belief in the new economy?

Fact is, the boom brought us new communication technology at an unprecedented scale and quality, and it has undoubtedly created opportunities for qualitative office productivity enhancements (and "office mobility") -- working from home saving the commute, video/net conferencing saving on travel/easing scheduling, online availability of research literature and (for econometric research) data series, which takes load off of libraries and sharply reduces delay and effort to get at "knowledge material", etc. Also online ordering and purchasing of goods, reducing the need to drive to stores and wait at checkouts, by having the merchandise delivered directly from the wholesaler's warehouse.

Creating those products and installing the infrastructure was one thing that happened in the boom, together with massive exchanges of computer hardware and software because of the Y2K scare. Perhaps so much of the infrastructure and the products was created that we now have a glut in both manufactured products and product design that can carry us a bit of way. Also at least in the computer hardware sector the pace of technology and time-to-market requirements are so quick that at any time we have several technology generations competing within themselves and among themselves (several cellphone standards, DSL/cable modem, several WLAN standards, DVD+-R/RW, DVD+-RAM, different storage cards for cameras/handhelds/cellphones), so that it has perhaps become nearly impossible to pay off the R&D of a technology with the products as the next generation already comes to the market, exacerbating the cost pressures.

I see this in my own work (software sector) -- my business unit has a fairly major, but constantly evolving, software tool in its market where customers need some sense of stability and are not jumping between versions easily, but there are early adopters, and others are essentially waiting for a new version to prove themselves before everybody starts using them, and even then the new versions are used mostly for new projects only. (Clearly the early adopters have a large leverage over the business unit.)

We are currently working on about 3 consecutive versions of it -- version lets say X has been adopted by many customers and is in active support mode, version X+1 is being rolled out, and feature development, critical roll-out support, and bug fixes (delivered in patch releases) are still under way, and active-development version X+2 is being used by strategic early adopters, and is going into Beta. This parallel work creates huge logistical and engineering challenges, and cost/resource pressures as the team is getting spread thin. Yet there is no new hiring to speak of (at least in the US), as three parallel versions does not mean threefold revenue, but essentially the same revenue or new revenue we manage to take from competitors is divided between the versions.

I speculate that in other tech companies it is similar -- product R&D is at a relentlessly accelarating pace, but the revenue is not growing in proportion, forcing shorter and shorter R&D cycles. Schedule compression has its limits, so companies are looking to hire more engineers at the same cost, driving them abroad.

Other, non-tech jobs are affected through the "tech job multiplier" -- a portion of the cost of operations goes to the local economy (building construction, maintenance, utilities, catering, business lunches/dinners etc.), and additional/missing revenue has an impact on how large the discretionary spending portion of this is. When offices are closed or jobs outsourced to Asia, demand is also taken out of the local economy where the office was located.

What do you think? Does this sound plausible? I don't have to offer a solution though.

Posted by: cm on February 22, 2004 03:31 PM

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ogmb: You wouldn't think how large a portion of the food that you are served is preprocessed, also in restaurants with waiters (except perhaps the high-end sort where you have to wait up to one hour for your meal).

Even in the burger shop, the fries are only "reconstituted" to their serving shape by heating them in oil, they are already pre-cut and otherwise processed; I'm not sure about the burgers, but I know from somebody who has a friend in the food industry that some meat products are already pre-cooked and even have burn marks put on them to appear to come from the grill not the microwave.

I think even the preprocessing is classified as "food services" not manufacturing, although it would fit your definition of creating warehouseable (for some time) units.

Posted by: cm on February 22, 2004 03:40 PM

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cm wrote, "All the people who lost their 'bubble' jobs didn't do nothing or something that nobody cares about, but the society in the aggregate either couldn't afford their services anymore,..."

But inefficient allocation of resources often creates jobs no one cares about.

Take the example of accountants at telecom companies whose main work was to swap bandwidth with other telecom companies, and at the end of the day declare revenue (on both ends). *No one* cares about those services, except people who "care" about abetting fraud.

More generally, if we hire group A to dig holes and group B to fill the holes A dig, then while we might "care" about the jobs because they help create aggregate demand, we don't care about the work product of the job itself.

Posted by: liberal on February 22, 2004 03:55 PM

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Interesting to note:

In the first graph, in the payroll survey, there are more jobs now than at the peak of the 1980s boom (1990). In the household survey, there are less. The household survey doesn't go back far enough to show us when this threshold was first crossed, but it would be interesting to know.

Posted by: Lawrence Krubner on February 22, 2004 04:03 PM

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Where are all the women in this graph? The second graph shows 52.5% of the population working in 1970, and 62% working at the peak of the boom in 2000. I have always been told that this era saw huge numbers of women come out of the home and join the work force. Assuming that women account for 100% of the change, is it true that their added participation only amounts to 10% of the working age population? I'd always assumed it was more than that.

Posted by: Lawrence Krubner on February 22, 2004 04:09 PM

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cm: I'm aware that in the tranformation from grazing cow to microwaved burger the burger flipper only adds the last 1%. Regards classification, here is the quote from the ERP which outlines the difference:

"Sometimes, seemingly subtle differences can determine whether an industry is classified as manufacturing. For example, mixing water and concentrate to produce soft drinks is classified as manufacturing. However, if that activity is performed at a snack bar, it is considered a service."

So clearly, at least from this description the on-location heating job is a "service" job while the off-location pre-fab job is a "manufacturing" job. I don't have enough detail knowledge to judge whether this distinction is applied consistently.

Also note that the ERP dwells on those fairly standard classification problems but seemingly can't differentiate between a "process" and an "industry".

Posted by: ogmb on February 22, 2004 04:18 PM

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liberal: jobs no one cares about

OK, my language was not proper. What I meant to say was "not all the people who had "bubble" jobs had ineffective jobs".

Even in a non-bubble scenario the jobs that you quote -- excessive bureaucracy/administration and people undoing each other's work will be there. I suspect that in a bubble the portion of these "idle" jobs is not dramatically higher. It may be somewhat higher as in the presence of easy money, controllers cannot question everything as sharply as when money is tight (who wants to create needless trouble and enemies for themselves arguing with the people who hired those workers).

During the "bubble" you certainly have a higher proportion of "discretionary" jobs -- personal trainers, dog walkers, grocery delivery people, etc. that perform services for well-paid but overly busy people. But then while we may question the value of these services, they nonetheless perform a material service that is presumably valuable to their customers. Who wants to be the judge what is a valuable activity?

But that's not the jobs I was talking about. I mean the people who create actual products, definitely needed services, etc. The money for these jobs was there, either from investors or from county/state tax revenues. Today, California counties are stripped of needed cops, teachers, hospital and emergency personnel, companies' R&D workers, infrastructure maintenance funds, etc. That I can drive at perhaps 5-10 mph more on the freeway with the same risk of getting a ticket (or observe others doing so) does not give me much consolation.

Posted by: cm on February 22, 2004 04:23 PM

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Everybody should lay off Jim. He's just scared of that 'long nightmare of peace and prosperity' that the Clinton years brought us.

Don't worry, Jim - Bush will protect you from those horrors.

Posted by: Barry on February 22, 2004 05:52 PM

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Jason McCullough:

Off topic, but why is the "attack" on epistemology "conservative". I don't see that it cuts politically any particular way. The deflationary ctitique of epistemology is a well-warranted philosophical result of long standing. If one wants to fallaciously reduce philosophical claims to persons, well, some have claimed that Wittgenstein was a "conservative" and that his philosophical work has a conservative bias, and certainly some conservatives have attempted to use it to that effect. But closer examination would show that that is a dubious and unsustainable interpretation and, as for the man himself, "apolitical and more than a bit crazy" would be a better characterization than "conservative". To call Heidegger a conservative would be a severe understatement. Richard Rorty seems to have some sort of left-liberal political orientation and on occasion espouses it. Jacques Derrida, certainly not my cup of tea, claims to be some sort of "radical" leftist, though that is a face drawn in the sand that I would not recognize.

The deflation of the word "epistemology", as an empty coinage, a uselessly spinning fifth wheel, does not in any way impugn or sustain any actually raised cognitive validity claim, even if they are drawn into an argument that is basically political in nature. Perhaps you like to use the word "epistemology" because it adds such savoury vapors to your claims.

Posted by: john c. halasz on February 22, 2004 06:39 PM

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cm wrote, "Today, California counties are stripped of needed cops, teachers, hospital and emergency personnel, companies' R&D workers, infrastructure maintenance funds, etc."

But CA will be screwed up until they get rid of Proposition 13. In most of the world, landowners are handed Ricardian rents for very little on the dollar from government. In CA, it's become incredible.

Posted by: liberal on February 22, 2004 07:43 PM

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Barry wrote, "Everybody should lay off Jim. He's just scared of that 'long nightmare of peace and prosperity' that the Clinton years brought us."

I assume you're borrowing from the headline in _The Onion_ here... :-)

Posted by: liberal on February 22, 2004 07:44 PM

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Howard:

"The unemployment rate is a shoddy indicator, primarily because it has been subject to a variety of redefinitions."

Maybe so, but a lot of political hay was made out of this "shoddy" number during the latter part of the Clinton administration, and recently as well when disparaging comparisons are made with the Bush administration. If you want, you can go to the BLS site and rework those older numbers using discouraged workers and other methods of cooking the numbers. See what you get.

The point is to stick to a set of units when using comparisons, and not switch to other units or cook the books just to make a selling point.

Posted by: tbrosz on February 22, 2004 08:10 PM

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liberal: prop 13

I see your point, but I don't see the solution. I know a guy who comes from an East Coast state where they don't have prop-13 style limits on property tax increases, and he says that as a matter of rule retirees are priced out of neighborhoods via property taxes as their houses are reassessed annually based on sales prices in some definition of neighborhood. Essentially they are paying rent on their home to the local government with no or little income tax to deduct it against.

I would imagine that it was something like this that led to prop 13.

Can you propose a better arrangement? Perhaps a "personal exemption" on the tax basis, so that you have to pay tax only on property in excess of some value? Otherwise I can see only that when buying a house you buy a cat in a bag -- you put the mortgage risk on your back and pay off for 30 years, forgoing a significant amount of other goodies, only to find that you cannot hold the property, and have worked hard for your elusive property your whole life. Or it may even hit you before retirement. Whichever way, your only hope then will be that other people are closer to the edge, and fire sales will drive down valuations, giving you tax relief the next year.

That's one reason I'm not eager to buy a house -- aside from the ridiculous prices here in the Bay Area, you can be held hostage as a property owner, as you cannot afford to sell at a loss when the shit hits the fan, and that would happen big time were prop 13 even partially lifted. Any dollar more in anticipated property tax will reduce your "affordable" mortgage payment by $1, and the amount of loan proportionately, which translates right to house prices. A similar thing will happen when mortgage interest deduction for income tax purposes is being tinkered with.

Bottom line, what better scheme of property taxation do you propose? Pointing to prop 13 as a large contibutor to CA's calamities is making the right point, but does not say how to do it better.

Posted by: cm on February 22, 2004 08:17 PM

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Where I live, you can take your tax bill into the city and apply for tax relief due to your circumstances. My friend has done this and gotten tax relief every year.

Posted by: Hi on February 22, 2004 09:26 PM

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"Off topic, but why is the "attack" on epistemology "conservative". I don't see that it cuts politically any particular way."

Because for the last 30 years, conservatives have responded to data they don't like by attacking the very concept of measurement? It's truly bizarre; the easiest explanation for the crap employment numbers isn't that we're in a high-productivity recession. Oh no: it's that the fundamental nature of employment is changing. It's like their slicing their throats with Occam's razor.

And it happens everywhere now - inequality, GDP, the trade deficit, climatology, any science related to homosexuality, you name it. The right appears to think the best reaction to unfriendly data is to throw out the concept of measurement.

Posted by: Jason McCullough on February 22, 2004 10:50 PM

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To clarify a bit: epistemology is just fine. But I don't see how a nonpolitical observer could see what the right is doing as an honest inquiry.

Another note: they all appear to actually believe this stuff. Postrel's bought the changing workforce argument hook, line, and sinker, based strictly on overinflated anecdotes and political convenience. Never mind the data, here's the Sex Pistols.

Posted by: Jason McCullough on February 22, 2004 10:54 PM

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Jason McCullough:

That I grant you. But it has nothing to do with "epistemology"- (if only we could so provided ourselves with an a priori guarantee in such matters, everything would be so much simpler!)- and everything to do with shameless opportunism and manipulation and the cultivation of irrationalism.

Posted by: john c. halasz on February 22, 2004 10:57 PM

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Have you guys looked at JunkScience? I think it's a fairly good example of what Jason McCullough means.

http://www.junkscience.com/

Posted by: Julian Elson on February 22, 2004 11:07 PM

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"Measurement" is indeed a problematic issue in economics. It's not physics or rocket science, after all. There is no need to cite the Heisenberg uncertainty principle: "Wicksell price effects" are problem enough.

Posted by: john c. halasz on February 23, 2004 03:03 AM

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Shorter Jim Glass

"It can't be accurate, the numbers aren't being pulled from my ass."

The 5% number is, essentially a POOTA number - to say that jobs were lost from an peak of employment that was above the POOTA figure is to have...

Well, let's just say he should have said "excuse me" after doing it.

- - -

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Any figures on a comparison with various other countries? Germany, France, Canada, or Japan for example?

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